This is supposed to be Komova’s time. Whether it will be depends entirely on her. If she goes clean (you know, the way she hasn’t done yet), no one should be able to touch her.
If we crunch the presumed numbers, I give Douglas a .1-.2 edge on vault, and I give Komova .5-.6 on bars. Then it gets tricky. We get to the events where Komova should have a smooth path to outscoring Douglas, especially on beam, but we don’t have the evidence that will happen based on previous performances at these Olympics. And there must have been a reason the coaches put up Grishina instead of Komova on floor in Team Finals, right? Stay on the beam and stay in bounds on floor and the gold should be Komova’s.
As for our other contenders, expect Aly Raisman’s execution scores to be lower than they were in qualifications. In qualifications, I said “Keep your eye on the ball, and the ball is Aly Raisman.” Today, it’s “Keep your eye on the ball, and the ball is Aliya Mustafina.” She will hit all her routines out of pure spite, so if Komova and Douglas have mistakes, expect Mustafina to sweep in there. Larisa Iordache’s DTY and lack of bars will keep her out. Who else is in this competition?
Competition begins at 11:30 ET/8:30 PT as always.
Okay, anyone else getting beach volleyball when they click on the main feed for the women’s AA?
Ah, now here we are. I’m going to start with the main feed, but if we’re missing good routines or if it’s clearly going to be between only the top few, I’ll switch to follow the lead group once they go to beam.
Warmups underway now. We’ll open with Miss Gabby on vault. Jordyn is wearing a moping sweatshirt today. Vanessa. Ferrari’s. Sleeves.
Shannon tells us that the AA means more than the team.
Douglas vault – It’s a good one, just a shuffle to the side, maybe similar score to the first two days. 15.966.
Raisman vault – big hop forward/to the side – not as strong as Qualification. She needs to be perfect today to match day 1. 15.900 is high. Way high compared to Douglas. She had a major hop out of that and worse legs.
Huang bars – a little wonky in some of her pirouettes and a dead hang, but fine. She hit. She usually does better for the team.
Komova vault – it’s OK, but multiple steps. It will still be a good score, but it will be lower than the 15.800 she got in prelims. 15.466. She will make it up on bars, but she and Douglas could be tied at halfway.
Ferrari’s shoulder cutouts on vault – DTY with sloppy tucked legs.
Deng vault – nice. I’m impressed by her improvement in the last few months on this vault. Good amplitude for her height, step back. 14.900.
Tunney beam – she has the stiffness of Kyla Ross with the fragility of damp rice paper, but she’s hitting so far. Big wobble on full turn. Pretty good on the double pike dismount. 13.133. Did she fall and I missed it?
Mustafina vault – DTY, a little big of legs and a college stick. Won’t be as high as her TF score, but it should break 15 based on what we’ve seen. 15.233. Scores are going to be high today.
Ferlito beam – I really like her layout. She does a full turn to Y turn (will we see someone do L turn + full turn + Y turn for .2 at some point? I kind of expect it). Some sloppiness on switch ring and 2.5 twist dismount.
Izbasa bars – this will be an experience, legs and hangs, but we can be proud of her for hitting.
Tanaka floor – OOB on mount, and steps on every pass. Come on, you’re Japanese! You’re supposed to hit every pass and then get deducted for lack of amplitude so that people can complain about your low scores. Don’t you know the rules?
After 1 Rotation: 1. Douglas, 2. Raisman, 3. Komova, 4. Mustafina, 5. Seitz, 6. Huang.
The revolution on top of Pihan’s head went while we were waiting for the rotation to end. Seitz’s def is so horrifying, but she hits it, many errors in the routine, but it’s enough for 5th. She’ll drop a bit from there, though.
We’ll get Raisman out of the way first on bars, then the rest will go. Even if she breaks 14, I don’t see her coming back on everyone else enough on beam and floor again today.
We start with Iordache on beam. I can’t fault the producer for that. Huge wobbles on her back full. She shouldn’t have wobbled that much, but she overcorrected after being minorly off. The rest has been nice, slight correction on side somi, just a tiny hop on triple full, but it won’t be in the 15s. Still 14.966.
Oh, now we’re back to Aly. Big pause on the stalder full and a little sloppier than the first day with a hop on landing. Shouldn’t break 14. 14.333. This is kind of a joke, but I’m loving it. Komova should be 34 in comparison.
Brennan sits down a 1.5. Vaulting in the Commonwealth is not healthy.
Komova bars – it really is perfect through almsot all of it, that stupid half turn ruins it for everyone, but if Raisman was 14.333, this should honestly be well into the 16s. 15.966.
Seitz beam – nice spin, just a little wobble out of it. Legs are nowhere close on splits, major steps out of double pike. Note her event.
World Champion Vanessa Ferrari on bars – legs are crazy throughout, hop to the side on dismount.
Deng bars – dead hanging like she invented it, good DLO full dismount. The handstands, swing, and amplitude are not up to par. 14.266. Lower than Raisman.
Izabasa beam – looking a little tight in doubting some of her landings and turns, but she improves as the routine goes on, 2.5 dismount with legs crossed and .3 step to the side. OK but just OK.
Mustafina bars – this is so excellent, do we think it contends with Komova? She’ll be right there for the lead at this point, but she needs to build up something before floor. 16.100! She’s just .1 behind Komova going to beam.
Huang beam – lost her legs a little on front tuck but held on, shouldn’t get connection. 14.133, well it’s not a 12.
Douglas bars – her usual, but maybe even a little cleaner. 15.733. She needed that score, that’s for sure.
Whelan beam – littel stumble out of whip triple, hits the final double pike quite well. It’s a Whelan routine.
Steingruber’s rudi with piking and major step to the side.
After 2: 1. Douglas 31.699, 2. Komova 31.432, 3. Mustafina 31.333, 4. Raisman 30.233. Huang falling a bit behind and Iordache hoping to make up ground on floor.
Komova beam – could be most important routine of the final. She must lead Douglas going into floor. L spin is good, maybe not getting some of these connections, minor wobble on arabian but holds on with minimal deduction, another slight correction on punch front, she’s working well given the situation. dismount – just a step back. I don’t think anyone can match that score on this event. I think we’ll have yet another AA come down to the wire. Douglas needs to have the same beam she did in TF. 15.441.
Seitz floor – huge bounce back out of pike full mount with OOB, not enough amplitude on tumbling, but a hit routine after the first pass mistake.
Deng beam – waiting, so we have a Whelan moment, completely to her hands on DTY, no chance, now Deng, her layout is still as great as it always was, no wobbles so far, this is excellent,wobble on the sheep, step back on double pike. Too bad she still has to do floor. 15.300.
Mustafina beam – oh boy, here we go. Extremely low on the arabian and comes off, probably no chance to save, wobbles on a bunch of events afterward like in TF. That may allow Aly Raisman to hit two more routines for an AA medal. Double tuck with step. She looked a little defeated before she started. 13.633. Devastating (but still ahead of Deng).
Douglas beam – Can she make it 3/3? Minor wobble on loso but holds it, same on back full and back pike, she’s nervous but fighting. Just the dismount now, hop back on double pike. She’s through it! Not her best, and Komova may take the lead, but it will all come down to floor. Exciting! 15.500. Wow. That’s too high with those little wobbles.
Iordache floor – multiple steps out of pike full to OOB, another situation with steps she didn’t need to take. Tuck full to back tuck (boo!), whip to only a double full. She is not in contention here. Such a shame with that injury. 13.833.
Raisman beam – hands on the beam on her front pike. Wow, didn’t expect it from Aly. She and Mustafina and one-upping each other on mistakes to see who can back herself into the bronze slot. This is very poor by her standards – all kinds of wobbles. Similar DbA dismount to TF. That score will be low. 14.200.
Big floor routine from Izbasa to keep her around going to vault.
After 3: 1. Douglas – 47.199, 2. Komova – 46.873, 3. Mustafina 44.936, 4. 44.466, 5. Raisman – 44.433.
If Douglas hits at her TF level, I don’t think Komova can catch her. The interesting fight should be for bronze because Raisman can be .5 higher than Mustafina, but she will have to go for her full mount and hit it.
Ferrari floor – double double with step forward, another full in to back tuck (this beam connection nonsense does not fly with me, nor does this leo obviously), fine double pike dismount. She will not figure in the medals. 14.866.
Izbasa vault – Mustafina vault, a little tucked and a hop forward but fine. 15.333. She’s in it if she gets some mistakes.
Deng floor – she’s in 4th but I don’t expect her to stay, the landings are fine and the turns are excellent, tried to get credit for a leap that she shouldn’t because she didn’t get it around, very low double tuck and even lower double pike, won’t score so well.
Huang vault – very strong DTY.
Mustafina floor – good second pass, falls out of her y spin minorly, small hop out of double tuck, usual crazy legs on triple full with step back. She’s making it tough on Raisman for that bronze spot. I expect this score to be higher than her others based on how scoring has gone. 14.600.
Douglas floor – Here we go, pretty good triple full, barely stays in on DbA + leap, but it wasn’t bad. Good tuck full. She just has to hit her dismount now. Double tuck + leap. Hit. This should be hers, really. Martha thinks so. Pressure on Komova. 15.033.
Raisman floor – pressure now, she needs a 15.133. She must at least go for her mount, but she doesn’t. That could be the difference, but if she wasn’t training it well. . . triple twist is usual, but I think this is just short of her best work. She didn’t quite have the form or the rebound. A little tight. Some form breaks. I see high 14s for this routine. 15.133. Tied with Mustafina. TIED.
Komova floor – she’s doing her best so far, this is excellent. Sticks her triple full and her double pike. That’s the best she could possibly do in this situation. And we wait. Grishina over this in TF?
OOh OOh OOh, Komova’s 15.100 is not enough, Douglas is our champion of the AA.
Mustafina takes third instead of Raisman because of the tiebreaker rule. That has to be so devastating for Aly, especially to lose out on a tiebreaker to someone who had a fall. That being said, I think Aly had several scores that were too high, so there’s that as well.
No wonder there was confusion. Is that English? Also, that’s a really dumb rule. E Score would have made more sense. There will be controversy about that during tonight’s broadcast. Yay!
1. Douglas – 62.232
2. Komova – 61.973
3. Mustafina – 59.566
4. Raisman – 59.566
5. Izbasa – 58.833
6. Deng – 58.399
7. Huang – 58.115
8. Ferrari – 57.999
9. Iordache – 57.965
10. Seitz – 57.365
This really could have been Komova’s, but she gave it away on vault, and there was some severely wacky scoring happening that we will be hearing about for a long time.