A hearty batch of intrasquads and fake intrasquads (UCLA) took place over the weekend. Here’s the roundup. 

UCLA hosted its annual Meet the Floor Routines event. Disappointingly, there were no costumes this year. What’s the point of you, then? Also, Val is verging on copyright infringement by establishing a ranking system for the quality of people’s eyes, which I patented in 2007. You’ll be hearing from my lawyers.

The ones to watch so far are Danusia Francis, Sophina DeJesus, and Mattie Larson, so no surprises.

Mattie’s routine needs more time and refinement, but she moves so well that there is always potential. I’m not blown away, but I’m pleased. I love the beginning of Danusia’s routine and the grabbing of the hair. Sophina’s is exactly what we would expect (and I appreciate the change of pace in the second half, otherwise it would have been too much/too one-note), but can she tumble to match?

Also watch for Danusia’s free cartwheel in side position at the end of this beam video.

Utah competed in the Red Rocks Preview, and I was struck by a lack of depth compared to previous years. Taylor Allex and Kailah Delaney will be out until midseason, which will hurt on vault, but usually Utah has multiple 9.750s to spare that they trot out at this event. They can put together lineups, certainly, but some rotations will be grasping for tenths.  Bars is going to be rough, where even a couple of the stronger routines have issues (Lothrop: amplitude, Hansen: legs).

Lothrop’s Omelianchik has improved from what we saw last year, and Hughes should be a definite on bars once she is in full health with a dismount. Floor is very far along and will probably be competitively 49.325 this year.

Florida held the Orange and Blue Intrasquad, which we know because there is all this graffiti everywhere that is upsetting my delicate sensibilities. The Gators look good.

Vault is just a few landings away from being ready, which is not necessarily a December concern. The amplitude of gymnasts like Johnson, Hunter, and Sloan is supreme, and Marissa King’s vault is still my heaven. 

On bars, King looked sloppy and Dickerson had her usual deductions, but Macko, Sloan, and Johnson are all looking excellent. One deduction here or there (and Sloan needs to work out the leg separation on the bail), but if they were to perform those exact routines on January 4th at home against Ball State, they would gets 9.9s. Sloan did fall on beam (what is it, day one of Nationals?), but she is about a month of refinement away from being a top AAer. It is difficult to evaluate the floor routines until we see them in their complete forms, but everything looks better than on track. 

Not to be outdone, Oklahoma held an intrasquad without a fancy name. Anyone else already excited for Oklahoma/Georgia on the first weekend? I’m interested to see how the vault and floor lineups work out for Oklahoma, especially vault. Scaman will be a boost, but who are going to be those first few routines that have to score minimum 9.875s? There’s no room for a 9.800 at the beginning of the lineup anymore. With Scaman and Kmieciak, I appreciate that Oklahoma has recruited for its weaknesses, which we don’t see enough teams able to do. Good awareness.

Michigan hosted an exhibition with Michigan State. I love that the scoring for Michigan at a preseason exo is still stricter than most other places. Vault looks good. Don’t count this team out. Nothing from Morgan Smith?

The Georgia Bulldogs will begin the 2013 season ranked at a historic low of #11, but of all the teams, Georgia has the most potential to rise above its station given the depth of talent. Even though the Jay Clark tenure will be remembered as a disaster, the team was improving and the much-needed new blood had begun to liven up the lineups. Let’s all remember that, crazy scoring aside, Georgia was a few more experienced beam workers away from making Super Six in 2012.

There is, however, much work to be done to put the team in a similar or stronger position. The graduations of Kat Ding and Gina Nuccio are significant not only because Ding and Nuccio were excellent gymnastics but because they were the last links to the Suzanne era. Those two performed with a sureness and an attitude (and a stickability) that none of the rest of the team can match.

All eyes will be on Danna Durante to see if she can produce more Dings and Nuccios and fewer of the sturdy, but uninspiring, 9.850 types that marked Clark’s leadership of the team. She needs to make a point of cultivating risk over safety to get out of these doldrums. I don’t expect some magical change in the upperclassmen (and the risk of a new coach is that the team dynamic changes for the worse, a la 2010), but I do believe that the right coaching still might squeeze some quality out of the potential (be it squandered or yet unfulfilled) that litters this team roster. Is Durante the one to do that? It remains to be seen.

Vault:

All the best vaulting teams have an anchor that can score 9.950 regardless of the charity of the judging panel. Georgia will need to find that person this year in the absence of Kat Ding, but I don’t anticipate a major struggle to do so as there are several valid nominees.

Lindsay Cheek should return to the end of the lineup and consistently knock on the door of 9.9s, and while Cat Hires probably isn’t an anchor, she can be a strong 9.875 like she was last year. Brandie Jay is training a workable Y1.5 with some bent legs that can be 9.900 with some refinement, and we will probably see big amplitude and/or difficulty from Brittany Rogers as well. Expect those four to occupy the 3-6 spots and consistently keep the team somewhere in the +.300 territory.  

For the other two spots, there are options. I have been pleasantly surprised by Chelsea Davis’s vaulting, and she is a perfect stick-worthy leadoff. Sarah Persinger and Kaylan Earls have the potential to be better than the 9.800s they showed last year, but they are more likely to act as comforting backups rather than lineup competitors. Noel Couch will almost certainly be in the lineup and has been training a 1.5, but I’d prefer to see her go back to the full, which at least was a stick. The 1.5 won’t be doing her any form or landing favors. It will be a tough ask to compete with Florida and Alabama on vault, but Georgia won’t be losing too much ground on this event. 

Bars:

For several years now, we’ve been looking at Georgia on bars and fearing what the team would do after losing Ding and Nuccio. Without those two auto-9.9s, Georgia will take a hit, especially early in the season, but this team is not a sudden lost cause on bars and could return at least to somewhere near previous levels by the end of the season.

I say it won’t happen right away because the scoring onus will be on new ones, and it may take some time for them to adjust. Davis showed last season that she is ready to take on that Ding responsibility (and even posted a higher RQS than Nuccio), but she has to become more consistent. The random 9.800-9.850s won’t cut it. Rogers should be a sturdy highish score, and Jay is retaining her Shushunova, which should help keep her scores up because the judges love a showpiece element, even one as perennially awkward as the Shushunova.

With Shayla on bars, where do we even begin? On the one hand, she was occasionally overpraised on bars as an elite where her routine was basically a Tkatchev rolodex + filler that fit the code well. On the other hand, she is way more talented than a consistent 9.800 and is a tolerable dismount away from 9.900-9.950. Unfortunately, she is retaining her whipped DLO, so don’t expect those 9.9s much. 

In the intrasquad, Cheek looke pretty strong on bars, and I’d love to see her and Persinger fill out the lineup. No one has quite yet recovered from Jay Clark’s decision to put Tanella in for Persinger at Championships. 8.600.
 
Beam: 

Let’s just forget what happened on beam last April because Georgia was a good beam team for most of the season and that nerve-burger of a performance was not reflective of talent. This lineup, however, could be in a severe state of flux. I still think Persinger and Earls are good choices in the mid-9.8 range, but they are far from lineup locks.

Really, the only certainty in this lineup is Shayla because, even for all her inconsistency, the team needs her potential 9.900-9.950. She is the best beamer on the team and has fewer areas for mistakes now with the gainer full dismount. Noel Couch is still a reliable leadoff, but we’ll have to watch how the rest of the team reacts to competing beam. I don’t know what Durante’s lineup style is, but I’d love to see some early-season experimentation, even it if means falls, rather than sticking to one group. I feel more comfortable about Jay and Rogers on vault and bars, but they both have elite skills sets and could gain consistency with a stripped-down NCAA routine. Davis’s routine composition has been impeded by her back problems, making it harder for her to be consistent, but we should see routines from her when she returns to full health. I’m not sure what is happening with Unick right now because we haven’t seen her, but I do like her on beam.

I expect more counting falls than we saw last year, but through that process there is a very good chance that six reliable workers will eventually emerge to form a comfortable lineup. All the possibilities will need to be explored.

Floor:

There should not be a shortage of options on floor, but how many of those options are desirable? I’m sure Durante will work to get Shayla in the lineup, but that body probably won’t be able to handle too much tumbling at this point. There are similar constant-injury concerns with Chelsea Davis, and Christa Tanella is more of a “she can go against NC State while the others rest” type. Rogers and Jay should be in the lineup, but cleanliness and landing position are concerns.        

Noel Couch is not a floor anchor. She received high scores last year, enough to record RQS over 9.900, but her form is not ideal for that position. She should be third up, but is there anyone else who has proven 9.900 capabilities? The Star Wars routine for 2013 is potentially even more gimmicky than the Jaws routine. Familiar music is not usually desirable on floor because it says, “Look at this music!” instead of “Look at this routine!” If she mimes a lightsaber, I’m out.

This event won’t make fans nervous in the way that beam might, but I can see 9.850 becoming the expectation throughout the lineup to the point where the team finds it difficult to get out of that 49.200-49.250 area.

Outlook:
For the level of talent on the team, Georgia is under-ranked, which primarily reflects the uncertainty about what Durante can do to turn around the Clark descent. Going solely on the quality of gymnasts, there is little between Georgia and a school like Utah, even though the ranking difference is large. 

Making Super Six is going to be a challenge, but if this group is cultivated properly, I see no reason why they couldn’t. The determining factor will be whether Durante is content with some of the  9.800s that she already has from upperclassmen or whether she can bring some of the underclassmen into the realm of 9.9s that their potential suggests. Right now, I would put Georgia at a close 4th in a National Semifinal. Combine a new coach with a group of untested or injury-prone gymnasts, and it’s difficult to have certainty, but becoming the 5th or 6th best team in the country is attainable.

In the preseason poll, coaches usually are not too sensitive to individual changes in team rosters, but they certainly have taken Jaime Pisani’s departure into account this year, dropping Arkansas all the way down to #12 after a Super Six performance in 2012. This is the lowest ranking for a team that made Super Six the previous season since Iowa State was ranked #13 in the 2007 preseason poll. It is, however, warranted.

While Arkansas had, in many respects, the best season in the school history last year, recording program-best totals and ascending to #1 for a short period, the Razorbacks fell off toward the end of the season and needed a Georgia implosion to qualify to Super Six. Without Pisani’s scoring leadership, it will be difficult for the team to put itself in the same position this year, relying on Katherine Grable as the only proven 9.900 gymnast on the team.

Fortunately for Arkansas, important AAer Jordan Salsberg will be returning from her knee injury. However, she’s still wearing a brace in intrasquad videos, so it remains to be seen how much she will be able to contribute right now and on which events. In the unfortunate department, Scarlett Williams is out for the season, which puts more pressure on the vault and beam lineups with only eleven possible gymnasts, some of whom should not be allowed near the events. Let’s take a look at the team’s prospects event by event.

Vault:

The showpiece of this lineup will be Katherine Grable’s excellent round-off 1/2 on, pike 1/2, which is occasionally underscored compared to Yurchenko fulls of similar quality but should still manage enough 9.9+ scores to keep Arkansas above water here.

Beyond Grable, I have concerns about depth. Expect Jordan Salsberg, Amy Borsellino, and Kelci Lewis to return to the lineup with vaults somewhere in the 9.800-9.850 territory. Bailee Zumwalde will probably also go here, but her ventures above 9.800 will be rarer. Stephani Canizaro can be used in a pinch, but the team would prefer not to. Of the new crop, Heather Elswick shows a nice Yfull with good distance, and Erin Freier has upgraded to a layout Yfull from a tuck in the past year or so, so they could both see action with Elswick the more likely to do so. Still, it’s just eight options for six spots, some of which are not ideal choices.

There’s enough talent at the end of the lineup that a good day can still be 49.350, but I expect more 49.1s than 49.3s. 

Bars:

Concern should abound here because bars is Grable’s weakest piece, and as goes Grable, so goes Arkansas. Without Howdeshell and Pisani, Grable will still have to lead the team here, but her routine has not been the solid 9.900 it has been on other events. This season she will be attempting to add a Comaneci, an upgrade I commend that could help bump her into the scoring territory expected of an anchor.

The supporting cast should be able to bring in relevant scores that will keep the team above 49. Shelby Salmon has a solid routine with a nice DLO dismount, Amy Borsellino has an enjoyable Tkatchev, and Salsberg and Canizaro will contribute as well. Problematically, this lineup has the potential to get stuck in 9.800 land because of handstanditis. Erin Freier could come in here; she has a lovely line and sufficient difficulty, but hers is still a work-in-progress routine.

Beam:

Though the scores didn’t always reflect it, I thought this was Arkansas’s weakest event in 2012. Grable and Pisani were excellent, which gave the impression of quality, but the rest of the lineup was afflicted by lack of amplitude, sloppiness, sluggishness and sometimes all of the above.

The return of Salsberg will help, and Borsellino and Salmon will probably compete here again (though 9.850 should really be the absolute ceiling for those routines), but otherwise this event needs the most turnover and could use an infusion of freshmen. Erin Freier’s work makes me a little nervous, but her height gives her a elegant impression with strong form and presence that needs to be sculpted into a lineup-ready routine. Sydnie Dillard has better positions and dance elements than much of the current group, so I’d like to see her make this event as well. 

Floor:

Floor was the downfall several times for Arkansas last season, and this is where Pisani will be missed the most. Grable will be a consistent 9.900, and Borsellino and Lewis have strong double arabians and can be the supporting 9.8s. I expect Zumwalde to lead off again, but the rest are nail biters. Canizaro was too frequently below 9.800 last year, and Salsberg’s quality coming off that knee injury is still a question (though she did tumble in the last intrasquad). There is talent here, but is there enough of it?

Elswick doesn’t have a ton of difficulty on floor, but she is a proficient tumbler who could be useful early in the lineup. WOGA gymnast Lily Hardin is also a little spark plug who has the difficulty and form to compete here (and perhaps on beam).

Outlook:
Overall, I think Arkansas is ranked appropriately. If I were to pick the twelve teams qualifying to Nationals this year, the Razorbacks would be in the group right now, but I would have them as a fifth or sixth finisher in a Semifinal and would not have them among the Super Six contenders, even if a favorite is counting a mistake. It is less likely that they will score in the 197s this season or pull off some of those SEC upsets we’ve come to expect (at least without help) until someone emerges to be to Katherine Grable what she was to Jaime Pisani.