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Routines under/over 9.800

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As teams move into February and March, the discussion will turn to finding 9.9s and how to turn 9.8s into 9.9s. The conventional wisdom is that it takes around twelve 9.9s (three per event) to have a strong shot to win a championship. At this point in the season, that is an unrealistic expectation. The expectation right now is that the top teams will begin to eliminate those scores under 9.800, the ones that have no place in a March or April lineup and that are unlikely to ever become those reliable postseason scores. 

Looking at the proportion of scores that top teams are recording under 9.800 gives a good sense right now of how much work needs to be done in terms of both eliminating falls and finding the competitors with the highest scoring potential. Whether it’s a 9.775 or a 9.300, that score cannot be accepted later in the season by the best teams. 

Because there is so much inconsistency in the first few weeks of a season, teams recording 9.750 after 9.750 can be ranked fairly well, but that team is unlikely to feature in the postseason and that will be reflected in these percentages as opposed to teams who counted disasters but are soon to improve.

% of routines scored under 9.800 for top 25 teams
1. UCLA [1] – 25.00%
2. Michigan [2] – 27.08%
2. LSU [5] – 27.08%
2. Florida [3] – 27.08%
5. Oklahoma [3] – 31.25%
6. Alabama [6] – 37.50%
6. Georgia [8]  – 37.50%
6. Utah [15] – 37.50%
9. Auburn [24] – 52.08%
10. Nebraska [7] – 54.16%
10. Arkansas [9] – 54.16%
10. Arizona [13] – 54.16%
13. Stanford [10] – 57.45%
14. Denver [11] – 58.33%
14. Minnesota [12] – 58.33%
16. California [17] – 60.42%
17. Maryland [17] – 62.50%
18. Kentucky [14] – 66.66%
18. Central Michigan [16] – 66.67%
18. Ohio State [21] – 66.67%
18. Oregon State [23] – 66.67%
22. NC State [19] – 70.83%
23. West Virginia [22] – 79.17%
24. BYU [25] – 81.25%
25. Southern Utah [20] – 83.33%

Utah and Auburn (in particular) are strong examples of teams that outperformed their rankings and are likely to move up soon based on the proportion of 9.800+ routines.  

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