Fun with Numbers, Olympics

*UPDATED* US Women’s Olympic Team Calculator

25 Comments

NOTE: This has been updated to include the results from both days of P&G Championships.

Following up on the men’s Olympic team calculator, I’ve also done one for the women so that we can compare the scoring potentials of all the various team options we could possibly imagine, and some we couldn’t imagine.

We don’t have as much to go on yet for the women, but this calculator takes into account all scores recorded so far in competition in 2016 to make up for it.

Once again, here’s how it works. In the cell next to “Team Member #X,” write only the surnames of the five gymnasts on the prospective Olympic team you’d like to test. Once you’ve listed at least three gymnasts, you’ll see a three-up, three-count total for that team on each event along with a full team total. There are two calculation options here. The first is based on the highest score each gymnast has achieved in competition this year on each event, and the second is based on the average score each gymnast has achieved in competition this year on each event. The optimism option and the realism option.

As a handy reminder of who the people are and how their last names are spelled (be sure they’re spelled correctly), here are the 24 women included in this calculator: Biles, Raisman, Douglas, Hernandez, Nichols, Smith, Skinner, Baumann, Dowell, Locklear, Kocian, Gowey, Schild, Hundley, Dennis, Desiderio, Gaskins, Navarro, Frazier, Trautman, Paulson, Ramler, Musselman, DeGuzman.

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25 thoughts on “*UPDATED* US Women’s Olympic Team Calculator”

  2. The highest I’ve had so far is 184.074 with… biles, raisman, nichols, locklear, kocian… obvi this lineup doesn’t provide cushioning if there are injuries but shows that douglas, hernandez, and smith are not as helpful as one might expect with a healthy nichols and two bars specialists.

  3. My highest scores would be also taking both Kocian/Locklear:

    Biles/Raisman/Hernandez/Kocian/Locklear for 186,1/183,833
    Biles/Raisman/Douglas/Kocian/Locklear for 186,09/183,922
    Biles/Raisman/Nichols/Kocian/Locklear for 185,516/184,074

    Otherwise, in my opinion Biles/Raisman/Hernandez/Douglas/Locklear with a score of 196,250/183,797 makes the most sense now, even though I would love to have both Kocian & Locklear on the team.

    1. And then, the US could send a B-Team consisting of Smith/Dowell/Kocian/Baumann/Nichols and still comfortably place 1-2 with a 198,466/197,999… This US-Team will be crazy!

    2. Yes, I agree with you about the Biles/Raisman/Hernandez/Douglas/Locklear. I think should any of them go down, you’re going to look for someone else who can replace that person similarly. So if Locklear goes down then Kocian. If Hernandez goes down, then Nichols or some other AA person (but maybe someone who leans more towards the bars/beam advantage).

    3. I agree with this team. It’s also one of the few combinations that allows Simone to skip bars in the TF by putting Laurie in instead (which would put the average score at 183.347 – her best score is higher than Biles but not her average). Hernandez also has the second highest total for best scores (0.001 higher than Douglas!) and the third highest average, so I think she actually makes more sense to do AA than Raisman.

  4. Oooo it would be so cool to send Kocian AND Locklear! OMG WHY DIDN’T I THINK OF THIS!?!!!!
    I made some teams and compared the scores to the team final at last year’s worlds. Obviously I know there is a bit (haha a bit) of domestic inflation, but the results are still pretty cool.
    Biles/Nichols/Douglas/Hernandez/Locklear 183.763, beating USA
    Raisman/Dowell/Kocian/Baumann/Smith 180.033, beating CHN
    Skinner/Gowey/Schild/Hundley/Desiderio 173.689, beating GBR
    Frazier/Trautman/Paulson/Navarro/Gaskins 168.750, in 6th behind RUS and JPN, just ahead of CAN, ITA, and NED
    Foberg, Johnson-Scharpf, Ramler, Musselman, DeGuzman 162.686, just behind NED
    The US could send four complete teams and they would all have the potential to make the team final!
    I think it would be awesome to see friendly team competitions within the US. Use an algorithm to divide the girls into teams of roughly equal scoring averages and have a friendly meet!

  6. Locklear and Kocian cant both be the team unless Kocian can do all 4 events (which is very unlikely) because Locklear doesnt do VT or FX and her beam is unusable, and they need four girls on each event for qualifications. If they bring three AAers and one UB specialist then they need another AAer or someone with strong VT/FX . I think the team is very clear, Biles, Raisman, Douglas, Kocian (lockear if shes too injured), and Hernandez (Nichols if she makes a full recovery with amanar = highly unlikely). No one else is strong enough or fits in well. The only thing that could shake things up would be a spectacular display by Key at both nationals and trials but yet again, thats highly unlikely.

  7. This is genius, and I hoped, in my heart, after the men’s choose your own adventure happened that a women’s choose your own adventure would happen, and you made my dream come true. Thank you.

    Also, I feel like the key players are Biles, Raisman, Douglas and Locklear. The fifth person can basically be anyone with minimal changes to the overall score.

    1. With a 5 person person team with the risks of injury you just cannot take a one-and-a-half event athlete like Ashton Locklear. ( her beam is okay but still lots of built-in deductions)

  9. Biles, Douglas, Raisman, Kocian and Locklear.. Alternates : Dowel, Smith and Hernandez

  10. Quote:

    “Yes, I agree with you about the Biles/Raisman/Hernandez/Douglas/Locklear. I think should any of them go down, you’re going to look for someone else who can replace that person similarly.”

    This is exactly what the U.S. did in 2008 and 2012 with the three alternates, I believe. And I think the Raisman spot is open to an upset with Ragan Smith, but I believe what you’ve got there is the most likely team.

    Alternates or real team additions come in as Kocian, Smith and probably Nichols (if she’s healthy) or Skinner (if Nichols isn’t ready).

  11. The last time Marta stacked one event ended up backfiring on her (2004) so there is no way that Locklear AND Kocian are both going. Maybe if it was a 6 person team…

    1. I agree. And I think taking anyone who is too injured also backfires (2008 and nearly did so in 2012). Team might be able to absorb 1-ish injury, but when people aren’t at 100%, it gets dicey, especially when you have some folks (*cough* Raisman) who can’t do bars at all.

  12. I’ve spent way too much time playing with this, and I keep coming up with the glaring fact that unless Maggie Nichols comes up with a crazy performance at Nationals and Trials, she’s not going to Rio. Hernandez upgrading her bars put the nail right in that coffin. All my highest scoring teams have Laurie in place of Maggie, +/- Kocian/Locklear. The team avg with Laurie is a little lower, but that will shoot right up with her new bars difficulty.

    Marta loves Locklear’s lines, and so do I, and I think she’d be the best shot of the two for an Olympic medal. I know people are concerned about injuries to one of the AAers but – isn’t that why we have HALF A TEAM’S WORTH of alternates? If someone gets hurt, throw in Nichols/Smith/Dowell/Skinner depending on where they’re contributing if you really need to. I don’t understand this aversion to using the actual alternates. Does anyone remember 2003 Worlds when a team of alternates kicked ass?!

  13. Yeah, I’m thinking that every scenario I use makes the following evident:
    1. Biles (Lock)
    2. Raisman (Lock)
    3. Hernandez (Lock as long as she continues doing this well…)
    4. Locklear or Kocian (Whoever is healthier….Kocian does all four events, but if Locklear scores higher on both of hers, what’s the point??)
    5. Douglas/Nichols (depends on if the former continues to look lackluster and if the latter returns to her form AND manages some upgrades on key events)

  14. My favorite team is Biles, Raisman, Hernandez, Kocian, Locklear, even though this is never going to happen.
    You have the top three AAs to go on vault, beam and floor (with only Hernandez’ vault being a potential weak spot) and then another killer bars rotation with Biles or Hernandez as the third bar worker.

    IMO, the US could just put up Biles/Raisman/Hernandez on all events in Qualifications to make them battle it out for the two AA spots and just use Locklear as the fourth bar worker and have Madison go up last on vault, beam and floor and scratch it unless any of the preceding three has a complete meltdown.
    They would easy-peasy qualify for TF anyways.

    Oh, but then Madison couldn’t qualify for an event finals spot if she doesn’t compete in Qualifications 🙁

  15. I agree with Biles, Raisman, Hernandez, Locklear, Kocian. You could consider Skinner instead of Hernadez, but I don’t think Skinner can win a vault medal. Gabby adds nothing to the team, except publicity, unless she gets her Amanar back.

    1. I totally agree Gabby needs her amanar or she shouldn’t make the team but martha will probably pick her anyway which isn’t fair to the others.

  16. I would take Simone-Aly-Laurie-Maddie-Ashton
    Top three AA, world champion on bars and the national bars champion.
    Qualification round.
    Bars -Aly-Simone-Maddie-Ashton (Aly needs to do AA)
    Beam -Ashton-laurie-Aly-Simone (Ashton more consistent over mads)
    Vault -Maddie-laurie-Aly-Simone (hoping Maddie upgrades to DTY)
    Floor -Maddie-laurie-Aly-Simone
    Team final
    Bars Laurie Maddie Ashton
    Beam Laurie Aly Simone
    Vault Laurie Aly Simone
    Floor Laurie Aly Simone
    Alternates Gabby – Skinner – Maggie

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