1) Jade Carey is a thing
Our first real-life glimpse of Jade Carey did not disappoint. On vault, Carey showed a Tsuk 2/1, followed by an Amanar (which ties for the most difficult vaulting program being done in the world right now).
Her final average for the two vaults was 14.475. That’s the kind of score that would be good enough to make event finals at worlds but is not a guaranteed-medal situation yet. There were clear deductions in these vaults, but the good news for Carey is that many were not built-in. She received a 0.3 ND on the Amanar (which she landed with more control in the touch warmup, just one crossover step), so not dancing OOB on the Amanar alone would bump her up and put her among the very best two-vault scores in the world this year.
Her Tsuk also scored 0.350 higher at the ranch than it did here, though the pronounced piking on the second twist probably keeps that E score from going too, too high. We could very well see this average go up as the summer continues, and doing so would remove some of the doubt in what already looks like a fairly compelling worlds case.
And then there’s floor.
That’s some big tumbling, you guys. Not sure if you noticed. I’m actually not mad at her 180 position on the switch full either, which is the more impressive accomplishment. The 13.950 this routine received is right on the cusp of being a worthy score to take to take to worlds for floor (I’m looking for 14s), but this was with an error on the landing of the final pass and getting nailed in the D score for completion of dance elements. The potential to break 14 at nationals exists.
Carey got a 5.7 D for this routine, but she’s going for 6.0. I’m sure she didn’t get full credit for the split leap 1.5 (it was more like a split leap 1.15), and probably got the double L downgraded to a single as well. That would get her D down to 5.7 but also reinforces how there really is room to improve on an already-competitive 13.950.
The Chaplins are like, “I KNOW, RIGHT? BLOOP.”
Vault and floor will rightfully get most of the attention, but Carey has the makings of a Sturdy German on beam as well.
2) Riley McCusker is a famous inventor
The meet didn’t go awesomely for McCusker, with mistakes on all three of her events.
At the same time, it’s just Classic, and she’s only just back from injury within the last 30 seconds. My main questions are more along the lines of why it was so important for her to compete at Classic than they are about her actual performance. Although she didn’t seem to be still suffering from any injury problems (just lack of numbers), so no harm done. This was also tons better than American Cup, a meet she was actually prepared for.
Above all, McCusker’s meet will be remembered for her interpretive invention of a couple new skills and combinations. First, the Stalder Tkatchev tucked.
(On a real note, you can do the tkatchev straddled, piked, and laid out, so why not tucked?) At least she has enough height to tuck it and live. Some don’t.
We also learned about the front 2/1 to gainer front tuck.
Still, after American Cup and then this Classic performance, McCusker is starting to get the inconsistency label. That label can be easily erased by going 8-8 or 7-8 at nationals and we’ll never think about it ever again (we have the memory of goldfish children), but it’s an issue to keep an eye on.
This year has been ripe with 2009 parallels mostly because of Jade Carey being Kayla Williams redux, but if we keep this “2017 is 2009” role play scenario going, Riley McCusker would be Rebecca Bross. As a new senior, Bross botched bars at Classic and again on the second day of nationals (which dropped her down to 3rd overall after being 1st on day one). The prevailing narrative after nationals that year was, “Is she consistent enough/ready to be one of the AAers at worlds?” And the answer was…she fell in the AA final but still yes? I guess?
3) Ragan Smith is ready for you
I suppose that means Ragan Smith is Bridget Sloan? The young one who stuck around for the new quad and is now the veteran?
Along with Carey, Smith was the big winner at this Classic, showing up looking polished and aggressively prepared even at this early point in the season, with upgrades on both bars and beam that were good enough to win both apparatuses. Smith winning beam is no surprise (the only surprise was…15.350? I mean, she was the best one but let’s talk about that scoring). Bars is the more interesting development because Smith brought a 6.0 D. A 6.0 has been about the standard we’re looking at for bars-specific gymnasts this year, and yet this is RAGAN SMITH we’re talking about.
Fun story: here’s Ragan Smith on bars in 2013
versus 2017
Now, this routine scored 14.550, so it’s not like she’s suddenly going to be a bars gymnast and contend on that event (the US certainly still has a spot open for someone to go to worlds for bars). But, Smith’s score does raise the expectation for what others need to do. If you’re not beating Ragan Smith on bars, you don’t have the claim to a bars spot.
4) Alyona Shchennikova is a winner
Winning Classic (and not just winning Classic but doing it by a landslide while counting a fall) is a big deal for Shchennikova. It likely doesn’t have significant implications when we look ahead to worlds this year, but this in itself is a major career accomplishment. Most “second-tier elite on the NCAA track” gymnasts don’t get that. (Other than Olivia Courtney in 2009. 2009 THINGS!) It proves that Shchennikova is more than a bars specialist, that she is a useful team gymnast who can record a very competitive all-around score.
In terms of those who are trying to defeat McCusker to make a case for an all-around spot at worlds, Morgan Hurd is probably the one best poised to do that, but I’d put Shchennikova very close in the next spot because of what she did here.
Bars remains her best event, of course, and she showed a very competitive 6.2 D here (which ties McCusker for the highest in the US), though her 14.500 score did fall just a tad below Smith. If she wants to be considered for bars, she’ll have to beat Smith at nationals as well as beating Locklear, who will have a lower D but presumably higher E. Locklear gets an incomplete for Classic since she didn’t compete bars and showed only her downgraded routine in podium training.
5) HAVE YA HURD?
If you’re wondering when I’m going to stop saying that, the answer is never.
Somewhat lost in the shuffle because she didn’t do the AA was Morgan Hurd, whose floor routine didn’t have the new-toy, big-tumbling flash of Carey’s but ended up scoring just a tenth lower, tied for the second-highest D of the day and close to the top floor scores for the US so far this year. Hurd had one major struggle on beam but also managed to hit this time, so it counts as a win.
If she carries through what she did on beam and floor at this meet to the other two events at nationals, she can get a 56 and challenge for the podium.
6) Jordan Chiles isn’t there yet
The lack of AAers here was an opportunity for Jordan Chiles to make her triumphant return and yell, “SURPRISE!,” which happened only in a couple places. The Amanar looked solid enough and garnered the highest vault score of the day (that alone keeps her in conversations), and she managed to get through bars, which is not her event. Hitting beam was still a problem (in that it didn’t happen), but Chiles also fell down the standings on floor, with just a 5.1 D, which is the bigger problem because that’s supposed to be a good event for her.
Chiles was going for 5.6 D with this routine, so she obviously got smashed in the D score in addition to some sluggish landings that did not look final or peaked yet. To be an actual AA contender this year (which looks like her path now that Jade Carey is a person), she’s going to need to get closer to her intended difficulty.
7) Trinity Thomas is not gonna be IGNORED
Like Hurd, Thomas’s performance went under the radar because she competed only bars and beam, but she finished third on both events, showing a competitive 5.7 D on bars and an exceptionally clean (if lower difficulty) beam routine that received an 8.7 E score.
Controlled, elegant, and well-executed. A dream. She should be in the AA picture come nationals. It may just be an issue of not having the D through four pieces.
I feel like no enough people talk about how nice Ragan Smith’s full in is off bars. Like her feet are pointed and her legs are always perfectly together while most people have crazy legs and gross flexed feet. I actually like watching Ragan’s dismount and besides the landing there’s not anything to deduct on her dismount.
Yes I absolutely love her full in. Its picture perfect.
Can we discuss how Riley did that 2/1 to gainer front tuck directly from a run? Girl, do a handspring first or something…
What exactly did Jordan lose 5 tenths of D in? I see the downgrade of the split 1.5; she did a wolf 1.5 which i guess was supposed to be a double? Super curious b/c I would think that if she is below a 5.6 there is no way she would justify a floor spot or even get a competitive AA b/c her difficulty is a little low on bars and beam compared to some of the other AAers?
I think that Riley did a great job considering she got back to the gym not a whole month ago. She did look tired but come on! Most people wouldnt go for that difficulty and yes, she had problems but still was great. I think she will shine at nationals. On the other hand I’m not a big fan of Alyona. I was looking forward to see her bars routine but get feet are not pretty at all. I just think overall she needs still a lot of polishing. We’ll see.
You wrote that Morgan Hurd needs to do what she did on beam and floor … UMMM she touched down on her standing full. Which I guess is better than a few falls… !! SHE NEEDS TO HIT. Not just get through. I love her, but I dont let that love cloud my judgement of the girl… Homegurl has fallen on beam every meet. Tonight again a shaky routine and had to grab otherwise – bye gurl. Now if she just gets through, and grabs the beam, has short landings, and all the gymnastic peeps can goo goo over how gorge her gymnastic skills are either way, then I guess that will suffice. However, I WANT HER IN MY SELFISH WORLD, to get one of the AA spots, and if she keeps boppin up on beam which seems to be her issue, that wont happen. Though her scores are getting better, lol – She got an 11.233 at the world cup. Jesolo she got a 12.600 and Classics 13.650. So its moving up… 🙂 the right direction MORE PLEASE!
Love this comment! Everyone keeps saying she is on their Worlds team but she needs to HIT. Right now, I’m not sure you can justify taking her. She needs to prove herself at Championships.
Trinity Thomas on beam was SO SOLID. Loved it!
Solid, clean and beautiful (and ranked 3rd) on not her best events. I am excited to see what kind of aa program she brings at nats. I think she is the one who I am most excited about after Classics, as I am a sucker for clean, hit gymnastics.
After her famous rebound last year, I want to see her do a DLO double tuck. At least in training. I believe she can do it. Fantacies.
As much as I LOVE Morgan and Trinity I don’t see them making the worlds team 🙁 Even with the inconsistency, Riley has the potential to MEDAL on the AA, UB and BB. I could ser Morgan and Trinity getting into more than one final for sure but I can only see them medaling on FX.
It would be nice to have an AA with FX and UB strenghts tho, since Ragan’s best events are BB and FX. And then have UB/BB and VT/FX specialists.
Btw Jade Carey for child president!
I just keep remembering what another commenter has said: 2013 classics- Simone was falling all over the place. There is still time for these ladies to start hitting consistently.
That said, I completely agree with this popular worlds team prediction:
AA #1 – Ragan Smith
Vault/ Floor – Jade Carey
That leaves room for:
AA #2 – McCuster, Hurd, ??
Bars/ beam – Locklear, McCuster, (Shennikova seems unlikely)
McCuster is most likely on the team, with the question being whether she would be put up in the aa or as a specialist. It will be fun to watch the makings of Valeri’s first worlds team.
Also, would Ragan be the first Texas Dreams gymnast to compete at worlds?
Chelsea Davis went to Worlds in 2010 but I believe she was the alternate
I also wanna saw that when one of the caquatto twins went they had already been at Texas dreams? Maybe?
Chelsea was named to the Worlds team in 2010. They waited until the last minute to name her as the alternate, and that was really only because she dislocated her knee during podium training. Apparently she had been doing really well up until that injury, so it was very unfortunate for her.
And everybody is doing a triple-double wolf turn combination on beam! You get one and you get one…!!!!
This is why we need Morgan Hurd on the team! She helps restore the dignity of the us team by building her D score without succumbing to the double wolf atrocity. I presume she will restore her full-in dismount at p&g’s?
Who cares if she cant hit!
Personally I would rather see Hurd over McCusker for the second AA spot but I think it all depends on how they do in the all around at nationals. Right now this is my team-
Smith-AA,BB,and possibly UB since a lot of major international bar workers are out she could have a shot especially if locklear and mccusker don’t upgrade/do tucked tkatchevs 😂 Also no floor for her because I think Carey and Hurd r stronger
Hurd-AA, FX if she shows all the upgrades she’s been training that would be podium worthy and as much as I want her to do beam she isn’t good enough
Carey-VT,FX
McCusker/Locklear- UB, BB I’m thinking it will be mccusker since her beam is more difficult but if locklear upgrades bars enough I think they will take her and take there chances with Hurd on beam
Also I know this is really long but I think I’ve finally got it figured out lol
Whoever is designated as aa will compete all four events in quals. Then it is up to the scores to determine who makes EF.
Yes I know but can’t one girl qualify and then the team can swap her out or is that only with injuries and such
In order to be in EF, the athlete needs to be in the top 8 on that event. IF someone gets two per countried out, then if one of her teammates scratched, she would then be able to compete. Super shady and unfair, and the US doesn’t do this unless there is an actual injury.
For FX I doubt we will see all those upgrades from Hurd, especially the moors as it looks the least likely in that video although I wouldn’t be suprised to see the double layout as it looked quite realistic and all the way around. For Smith I feel like she may have an upgrade or two for P&Gs especially with how much she upgrade on the other two, so… FX quals could be quite interesting between the two of them since both definitely have the potential to be in the top 8 on that event. It’s definitely not a done deal that Hurd would be in over smith as some are saying (actually Carey, Hurd and Smith may all max out in D very close to one another!)
Love this scenario but Morgan would have to outscore Riley at nationals and selection camp *in the all around* to make to make it happen. I believe Morgan has the potential but we’ve never seen her come anywhere close to Riley’s Jesolo score….
EVER!!! Thank you. I love her, but I have yet to be blown away by her routines in actual competitions. As an overall gymnast, YES, but when it counts… no maam.
I think Trinity has a ton of potential; she just needs a bit more time and training from the national staff. She could be the Gabby Douglas of the 2009-2012 quad with her power combined with elegance and lines. That leap out of her double layout on floor was majestic. She has beautiful form and presence. It’s just about growing into the routines and getting more experience