Gather ’round dear peasants! The 32nd European Gymnastics Championship, sponsored by Surgery, has arrived on our shores.

The story of this competition is how everyone you have ever heard of is broken into a thousand pieces and not competing (the latest official victims being Becky Downie, Anamaria Ocolisan, and Eythora Thorsdottir). On the fun side, that means chaos. Some unexpected nations/people are going to make finals, and significant portions of the traditional order of things have been thrown directly into the garbage.

Here’s your US-time schedule for the women (the men start next week):

Thursday, August 2
5:00am ET/2:00am PT – Women’s Senior Qualification Sub 1
(CZE, DEN, SLO, BUL, IRL, GEO, LTU, SWE, LUX, CYP, CRO)

8:15am ET/5:15am PT – Women’s Senior Qualification Sub 2
(UKR, SVK, TUR, ISL, POL, FIN, AUT, LAT)

11:00am ET/8:00am PT – Women’s Senior Qualification Sub 3
(NED, BEL, ESP, NOR, POR, AZE, GRE, ISR)

2:00pm ET/11:00am PT – Women’s Senior Qualification Sub 4
(RUS, FRA, GBR, GER, ITA, HUN, ROU, SUI)

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Friday, August 3
5:00am ET/2:00am PT – Women’s Junior Team/AA Sub 1
(RUS, FRA, POL, AUT)

8:15am ET/5:15am PT – Women’s Junior Team/AA Sub 2
(GBR, GER, ITA, FIN, IRL, GRE, ISR, LAT)

10:45am ET/7:45am PT – Women’s Junior Team/AA Sub 3
(NED, ROU, ESP, SUI, HUN, DEN, BLR, AZE, SWE, SLO, CYP)

1:30pm ET/10:30am PT – Women’s Junior Team/AA Sub 4
(BEL, UKR, CZE, NOR, TUR, ISL, LUX, POR, LTU, BUL, SVK, ARM)

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Saturday, August 4
8:00am ET/5:00am PT – Women’s Senior Team Final

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Sunday, August 5
5:00am ET/2:00am PT – Women’s Junior Event Finals
9:30am ET/6:30am PT – Women’s Senior Event Finals

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As for streaming, the finals on Saturday and Sunday are being carried by a number of outlets like Flo and Eurovisionsports, so you’ll be able to find something that works for you. While it didn’t initially appear that anyone was carrying qualification or juniors, the outlook is becoming increasingly encouraging that we’ll get something from Flo or FranceTVSport or UEG on facebook, which live streamed video of podium training today.

On to the event!

Team Medals

Despite Russia’s requisite team selection drama and the surprising omissions of Komova and Ilyankova, Russia‘s team of Melnikova, Simakova, Perebinosova, Akhaimova, and Alexeeva will nonetheless enter the competition as the favorite to win team gold with the highest scoring potential of the bunch.

If Simakova and Akhaimova are on, Russia should have the biggest vaults, and this team was selected to give Russia an edge over the other contenders on floor. This is absolutely not the most relaxing bars team Russia could have come up with, but everyone competing bars is capable of 14s. Beam is also an event.

But, watch out for France. France’s team of De Jesus Dos Santos, Boyer, Bossu, Charpy, and Devillard stands out for being an actual full-strength, first-choice squad among an entire continent of injuries. For that reason, France comes into the competition as the most likely silver medalist and the nation with the best shot at upsetting Russia, especially if Russia has some beam problems.

France is bringing two exceptional beam workers in Boyer and De Jesus Dos Santos and should have the three internationally competitive routines on each event required to make a hearty stand for medals. France’s best ever team showing at a European Championship is a bronze medal (achieved on two occasions), so this team will be hoping to make history.

Even with the injury problems, I’m not counting out Great Britain in the race for the medals. The absences of Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, and Claudia Fragapane certainly put a dent in GB’s scoring potential (fully healthy, Great Britain would probably be the gold medal favorites), and now we can officially add Becky Downie to that list, which means GB is really hanging on for dear life.

Taeja James will officially replace Downie on the team, but on the start lists, she is not listed as competing any events. Instead, Stanhope is going in for Downie on bars and Simm on beam. The other medal contenders will feel as though their chances have increased exponentially, and we have to worry about GB’s bars more than we did before.

Still, GB’s medal prospects will mostly come down to the well-documented, historic terror that is British beam at major competitions. Hit beam, and Britain can still medal here. Miss beam, and the prominent omission of the Welsh beamers Methuen and Bevan on this squad will loom large, especially because it currently looks like GB isn’t even using five team members.

Germany is in a similar pickle without Seitz, Scheder, and Alt, so while the team should put up a few phenomenal numbers (like Bui on bars and Schäfer on beam), when it comes to the fill-in routines from Leah Grießer and Emma Höfele, we don’t really know if we’re going to get competitive 13s or…just some 11s. I still like Germany as a team-medal spoiler, but we’ll learn a lot from qualification about how competitive those third-best routines on each event really are.

As the injuries from these other countries were coming in, the Netherlands began to emerge as an increasingly compelling medal contender. That status was sadly knocked down a peg or eight by the injury to perfect swan Eythora Thorsdottir, which may just put too much strain on a national team that is excellent, but not especially deep.

With a lineup of Wevers, Thorsdottir, and Van Gerner, the Netherlands looked like one of the strongest bars and beam teams in the entire field. Wevers and Van Gerner should still keep the scores quite high and will be event final contenders on both pieces, but it’s now worth wondering whether the UB/BB total will be high enough to make up for not having the big vault and floor scores. The performances of Volleman and Van Pol on the power events therefore become even more significant.

Team Final

The most exciting part of the entire competition may be the knock-down, drag-out race to make the top 8 in qualification and advance to the team final. Beyond maybe the top two favorites, we have some serious team parity going on right now.

I do expect all five teams mentioned above to advance to the team final, but it’s not a guarantee. No scores are dropped in qualification (it’s 3-up, 3-count just like the final), so there’s no buffer against a meltdown. Go up and miss three straight beam routines in qualification, and it doesn’t matter who you are, there will be many nations waiting to pounce on that.

The next teams waiting in line are Italy and Belgium. As is the common story, these two nations at full-strength would be much more compelling contenders for medals, but Italy has had to dig far down into its pool of depth to come up with a team of five seniors this year, and Belgium is bringing just four athletes because of injuries.

Both should still be expected to make the team final. Italy is one of the deeper European countries, so while having to use routines from Linari and Cereghetti doesn’t make for ideal scoring potential, they are still bodies who exist in space and can put up reasonable 12s to complement the (hopefully) 13s from Grisetti and Basile, and the DTY from Busato.

Belgium may be competing with only four but two of those four are Nina Derwael and Axelle Klinckaert, which means a lot. Those two should carry the scores, so even though not having Rune Hermans probably keeps Belgium from sugar-plum dreams of beating Germany, the routines are still there to make the top 8 as long as they get some hits out of Brassart on events she wasn’t necessarily expecting to compete.

There were a few too many 10s on beam at the Belgian Championships, but as long as a repeat of that scenario is avoided, things should be OK.

That’s 7 reasonable-seeming favorites for the 8 spots, but the fight for that last spot (or last couple spots if we have a meltdown) is going to be goooood with a bunch of teams in contention, including Romania, Spain, Hungary, and even Ukraine.

Romania has never failed to make the team final at a European Championship. Ever. That streak is in jeopardy this year but not a lost cause quite yet. Of course, the great terror is bars, where Romania will be hoping for a rotation of 12.4s. That’s not a great number by any means, but it would keep the squad close enough to contention.

Anamaria Ocolisan is out following podium training, and Laura Iacob will replace her on the three events she was supposed to compete. It’s a huge blow to the scoring potential on vault and floor, where Romania is going to lose about a point and a half compared to the team it traveled with.

Terrible news for Romania, good news for…

Unlike basically every single one of these other countries, Spain has been adding to its roster these last few months instead of crossing people off, with the returns of Ana Perez and Helena Bonilla making Spain look much more competitive than it did even this spring. Cintia Rodriguez doesn’t have to do all the work. I do worry about Spain not having big enough vaults to keep pace, but if Perez can deliver a floor number to get the team out of the 12s and she and Raya deliver high bars scores, Spain is a very appealing prospect.

Hungary managed a historic result in 2016 by making the team final, and while a repeat looked possible for a while, the injury to Zsofia Kovacs may be just too much to overcome. Still, veteran Dorina Böczögö has returned to her scoring-leader ways in 2018, new seniors Sara Peter and Nora Feher deliver depth Hungary hasn’t always enjoyed, and Noemi Makra is a viable replacement for Kovacs on bars. It will have to go perfectly, but it’s not unrealistic to think Hungary can still put up a competitive team total without Kovacs.

Let’s talk about Ukraine. As you’ll see below, Ukraine’s misleading domestic scores tell a hilarious story about the team’s competitiveness. No, Ukraine is not going to medal as a team at the European Championship (Diana Varinska actually could get an individual medal, which would be a big enough deal). Still, a secure day from Varinska and some high 12s from the supporting characters en route to a competitive score in qualification is not a preposterous idea. It could happen, which means Ukraine is among the vaguely legitimate contenders to make the team final.

Scoring

For comparison purposes, these are the current European national team rankings, using the same principles as the monthly rankings but including only the athletes entered in this competition and using only athletes slated to compete that event on the start list.

NOTE: The three bolded, counting scores are the ones slated to compete on the start list. Not necessarily the highest three on the team.

1. RUSSIA – 170.430
Angelina Melnikova	14.633	14.666	14.033	14.500
Angelina Simakova	14.833	14.000	13.066	13.933
Irina Alexeeva	13.800	14.250	13.650	13.766
Lilia Akhaimova	14.400	12.866	12.100	13.900
Uliana Perebinosova	14.133	14.566	13.200	13.500
170.430	43.866	43.482	40.749	42.333
2. FRANCE – 169.533
M De Jesus Dos Santos	14.600	14.500	13.933	14.200
Lorette Charpy	13.800	13.900	14.000	13.550
Marine Boyer	14.000	13.100	14.050	13.650
Juliette Bossu	0.000	14.600	0.000	0.000
Coline Devillard	14.550	11.850	12.200	12.650
169.533	43.150	43.000	41.983	41.400
3. UKRAINE – 167.916
Diana Varinska	13.933	14.650	14.750	14.033
Angelina Radivilova	13.600	0.000	14.467	14.400
Yana Fedorova	13.600	13.033	13.575	13.000
Valeria Osipova	14.025	13.800	13.667	13.650
Alona Titarenko	13.525	12.533	13.567	12.400
167.916	41.558	41.483	42.884	42.083
**As an experiment, I excluded Ukraine’s scores from crazy national championships to see where the total would be then. I had to go back farther than six month because otherwise there aren’t enough scores, but the team total is around the 158s if the craziest numbers are excluded. **I had to go back farther than six months to get a bars score for Osipova because she hasn’t competed bars in centuries but is on the start list to do so.
4. NETHERLANDS – 162.416
Celine van Gerner	12.700	13.550	13.700	12.933
Sanne Wevers	0.000	13.600	14.750	0.000
Tisha Volleman	14.166	12.800	13.100	13.267
Naomi Visser	13.750	14.000	12.600	12.800
Vera van Pol	14.067	13.366	12.367	12.900
162.416	41.983	40.516	40.817	39.100
5. GERMANY – 161.950
Kim Bui	13.850	14.500	12.750	12.800
Emma Höfele	14.050	11.550	12.300	12.866
Pauline Schäfer	13.650	13.100	14.000	13.100
Sarah Voss	14.500	13.333	13.800	12.500
Leah Grießer	12.500	13.350	13.150	12.800
161.950	42.400	40.950	40.100	38.700
6. GREAT BRITAIN – 161.600
Taeja James	14.150	13.000	12.466	14.100
Kelly Simm	14.100	13.750	13.050	12.900
Lucy Stanhope	14.700	11.700	13.050	12.700
Georgia-Mae Fenton	13.550	14.600	13.150	12.500
Alice Kinsella	14.300	13.600	13.700	13.150
161.600	43.100	40.050	39.900	38.550
7. BELGIUM – 160.383
Axelle Klinckaert	13.950	13.200	12.500	13.333
Nina Derwael	13.650	15.350	13.500	13.000
Maellyse Brassart	14.100	13.000	12.300	12.450
Senna Deriks	13.850	13.050	11.350	11.900
160.383	41.700	41.600	38.300	38.783
8. POLAND – 159.666
Gabriela Janik	14.200	13.300	13.333	13.600
Katarzyna Jurkowska-Kowalska	13.367	9.733	14.450	12.300
Marta Pihan-Kulesza	13.200	12.833	13.450	13.300
Wiktoria Lopuszanska	13.533	12.000	11.850	11.600
159.666	41.100	38.133	41.233	39.200
9. HUNGARY – 158.800
Noemi Makra	13.200	13.600	12.000	11.800
Sara Peter	13.750	12.000	13.000	12.750
Dorina Böczögö	13.200	13.000	13.200	13.300
Boglarka Devai	14.000	10.300	11.700	12.033
Nora Feher	12.850	13.750	13.600	12.650
158.800	40.950	40.350	38.800	38.700
10. SPAIN – 158.617
Ana Perez	13.600	13.567	13.300	12.767
Andrea Carmona	12.800	12.000	11.067	12.733
Paula Raya	13.200	13.350	11.550	12.000
Helena Bonilla	13.933	13.100	12.700	12.267
Cintia Rodriguez	13.133	12.900	13.600	12.767
158.617	40.733	40.017	39.600	38.267
11. ITALY – 158.600
Giada Grisetti	14.100	13.700	13.500	12.700
Francesca Linari	13.950	12.200	12.900	13.050
Martina Basile	14.000	12.867	13.150	12.750
Sofia Busato	14.550	0.000	0.000	0.000
Caterina Cereghetti	13.600	13.100	12.500	12.100
158.600	42.150	39.000	39.550	37.900
12. CZECH REPUBLIC – 157.900
Dominika Ponizilova	14.050	12.650	13.150	12.200
Sabina Halova	13.250	11.100	12.850	12.100
Kristyna Brabcova	13.100	0.000	13.100	12.950
Lucie Jirikova	13.500	12.500	12.600	12.800
Aneta Holasova	13.950	12.750	13.850	13.150
157.900	41.500	37.900	39.600	38.900
13. ROMANIA – 157.533
Denisa Golgota	14.600	12.600	13.250	13.500
Carmen Ghiciuc	13.450	12.600	13.350	12.800
Laura Iacob	13.400	12.450	13.050	12.300
Nica Ivanus	13.633	10.500	12.800	12.900
157.533	41.633	37.650	39.650	38.600
14. SLOVAKIA – 156.150
Barbora Mokosova	13.800	14.200	13.850	13.100
Karolina Takacova	12.500	12.650	12.800	11.300
Chiara Bunce	13.200	11.700	12.300	12.300
Ema Kuklovska	13.000	9.650	12.200	12.050
Radoslava Kalamarova	12.200	12.450	12.600	12.200
156.150	40.000	39.300	39.250	37.600
15. TURKEY – 153.616
Goksu Uctas Sanli	14.050	12.100	13.050	13.050
Demet Mutlu	13.600	12.550	11.900	12.566
Ilyada Sahin	13.300	12.700	11.400	12.000
Seher Atalay	13.050	10.600	9.367	11.133
Tutya Yilmaz	13.600	12.350	12.300	12.500
153.616	41.250	37.000	37.250	38.116
16. SWITZERLAND – 152.866
Ilaria Käslin	13.450	13.000	12.800	12.433
Anina Wildi	13.250	10.667	10.767	10.850
Stefanie Siegenthaler	12.650	11.950	12.650	11.867
Thea Brogli	0.000	11.350	10.450	12.350
Leonie Meier	13.600	12.433	12.350	12.600
152.866	40.300	37.383	37.800	37.383
17. AUSTRIA – 151.867
Jasmin Mader	13.550	13.100	11.900	12.500
Alissa Mörz	13.350	10.500	12.100	11.700
Marlies Männersdorfer	13.350	12.400	11.650	12.500
Bianca Frysak	12.700	12.550	12.100	11.767
Elisa Hämmerle	0.000	13.300	12.300	0.000
151.867	40.250	38.800	36.050	36.767
18. PORTUGAL – 151.850
Mariana Marianito	13.300	10.950	12.800	12.700
Mariana Pitrez	12.950	11.900	12.300	11.450
Leonor Silva	12.500	11.350	11.250	12.500
Beatriz Dias	13.400	11.300	12.350	12.400
Filipa Martins	13.150	13.600	12.700	12.250
151.850	39.650	36.800	37.800	37.600
19. FINLAND – 151.049
Enni Kettunen	13.250	12.533	11.800	12.400
Maija Leinonen	0.000	12.533	12.850	0.000
Sani Makela	13.900	12.050	13.000	12.200
Siiri Saukkonen	12.750	12.250	10.250	12.333
Helmi Murto	12.550	12.400	11.450	12.850
151.049	39.900	37.466	36.100	37.583
20. AZERBAIJAN -150.998
Marina Nekrasova	14.600	12.700	12.433	12.133
Maria Smirnova	13.200	12.400	11.200	12.300
Yulia Inshina	13.433	11.933	12.100	12.566
150.998	41.233	37.033	35.733	36.999
**Had to expand the field longer than six months to get a full team score
21. SLOVENIA – 150.632
Tjasa Kysselef	13.850	10.300	12.500	12.750
Lucija Hribar	13.600	12.750	12.350	12.033
Tela Belak	14.250	11.550	13.000	12.433
Adela Sajn	0.000	0.000	12.866	11.650
150.632	41.700	34.600	38.216	36.166
**Had to expand the field longer than six months to get a full team score
22. ICELAND – 150.581
Sigridur Bergthorsdottir	13.433	11.733	11.533	12.166
Agnes Suto-Tuuha	13.550	11.900	12.700	12.800
Lilja Olafsdottir	12.750	12.466	12.250	12.550
Margret Kristinsdottir	12.600	11.450	12.800	12.750
Thelma Adalsteinsdottir	12.350	12.300	13.300	12.766
150.581	39.333	35.933	37.633	37.682
23. NORWAY – 149.350
Julie Søderstrom	13.100	11.450	13.000	12.600
Julie Erichsen	12.300	11.500	12.150	11.550
Sara Davidsen	13.150	11.500	12.700	12.750
Edel Fosse	12.800	11.900	11.700	12.350
Thea Nygaard	12.900	12.600	11.350	13.000
149.350	38.350	36.000	37.050	37.950
24. DENMARK – 147.232
Mette Hulgaard	12.900	13.133	11.600	12.450
Linnea Wang	12.833	12.150	11.766	12.550
Emilie Winther	13.400	10.733	11.066	11.700
Victoria Kajø	12.633	10.400	12.100	12.500
Sofia Bjornholdt	12.600	8.700	10.950	11.966
147.232	38.900	36.016	34.816	37.500
25. GREECE – 140.749
Vasiliki Millousi	0.000	12.100	12.500	0.000
Evangelina Monokrousou	13.050	0.000	10.000	11.850
Evangelina Plyta	0.000	10.900	0.000	0.000
Ioanna Xoulogi	12.400	11.200	12.600	12.733
Argyro Afrati	13.466	7.500	0.000	11.650
140.749	38.916	30.500	35.100	36.233
26. LATVIA – 139.747
Anastasija Dubova	12.100	11.300	12.566	11.950
Elina Vihrova	12.350	12.700	12.300	12.900
Linda Tugarinova	12.766	10.300	11.933	11.550
Marija Ribalcenko	11.466	7.766	11.450	10.233
139.747	36.582	31.766	36.316	35.083
**Had to expand the field longer than six months to get a full team score

Event Finals

Vault
Without Steingruber and Paseka, the vaulting field is quite open this year. Like…really open. Come one, come all if you’ve got a second vault. Even if it’s bad. It doesn’t really matter right now.

The conversation should begin with defending champion Coline Devillard. She has the difficulty, but the crashed-sideways rudi we saw briefly in podium training isn’t exactly auspicious for her chances this year. So, we look to the Russians. All three of the Russian vaulters (Akhaimova, Simakova, and Melnikova) are electing to throw two vaults. Melnikova’s DTY/Lopez would be very competitive this year, Simakova can Yurchenko in addition to her rudi, and Akhaimova has a Tsuk full to go along with her first vault, which is going to be either a rudi or a handspring layout 1/2.

With a rudi, the second vault won’t need to be that difficult to be in medal contention. Expect a couple Russians to be right in the medal mix.

Boglarka Devai is the defending bronze medalist, going DTY/Lopez in last year’s final. If she’s on track with both of those vaults, she will challenge again, and Tisha Volleman finished not far behind Devai in last year’s final with the same program of vaults.

Others with solid DTYs will be in contention if they choose to perform a second vault (and they therefore should)—for instance the likes of Sofia Busato, Denisa Golgota, and Sarah Voss. Busato showed a 5.0 second vault to win the Italian vault title this year, and Golgota finished 4th at Jesolo with a Tsuk full as her second vault. Keep them in mind, as well as some of our beloved Challenge Cup vaulting queens like the Slovenians, Teja Belak and Tjasa Kysselef, who could very well make the final here, along with someone like Marina Nekrasova of Azerbaijan or Dominika Ponizilova of the Czech Republic or Gabriela Janik of Poland. In an open field like this, they could make the final.

Bars
Bars is the highlight event final at Europeans this year. As long as the right people make the 8. You have your missions.

The gold medal favorite will be Nina Derwael, who has been scoring 15.3s this year, has the difficulty edge on everyone else in the field, and has developed tremendous consistency over the last year or so. Still, it’s far from just a Derwael show. We know Georgia-Mae Fenton has the difficulty to win a medal on bars if she gets through the meet with two hit routines.

Also, Russians. Duh. Angelina Melnikova and Uliana Perebinosova are both very capable of medal-winning scores and going comfortably into the 14s for hit sets. I mean, it will be a miracle if Perebinosova hits two routines in a row, but this event is already so weird that there’s a 100% chance she will suddenly turn into a rock starting now. (Alexeeva can also get 14s, but she’s probably the third-best Russian on bars which means she would need a teammate to miss in order not to be per-countried out of the final.)

Speaking of people who can go well into the 14s, Kim Bui and Diana Varinska should also be in the top echelon of this conversation. That group would make for such a treat of a final, and it’s not even done yet because of Melanie De Jesus Dos Santos—as well as her teammate Juliette Bossu if she repeats what we saw at the French Championship. Both also realistic contenders.

Jonna Adlerteg of Sweden is another to root for, someone who can score extremely well if she hits. Unfortunately, she has chosen the deepest European event as her apparatus on which to be excellent. I wouldn’t count out the Dutch either, though they probably need help in the form of misses from some of the favorites to get into the final.

Beam
The fight for the beam gold will be another delight, as I look forward to seeing the current Olympic champion Sanne Wevers go against the current world champion Pauline Schäfer and another beam queen in Marine Boyer. If everyone hits, that’s probably my podium, but it’s beam, so of course everyone is not going to hit.

I quite like Melanie De Jesus Dos Santos as a contender here, and of course don’t count out Angelina Melnikova or AMERICAN MENTALITY for Russia, providing Russia gets through qualification without falling apart emotionally.

Katarzyna Jurkowska-Kowalska has been able to rack up the big beam numbers in past competitions here and there and may be Poland’s big hope, and while Diana Varinska is mostly known for bars, she can pull out a real beam score as well.

Without Thorsdottir, the Netherlands is probably putting all its hopes on Wevers, but Celine Van Gerner is quite proficient at beam as well and could get into the 8.

And as for the British, their beam scoring potential is right in the…oh I do like to kid.

Floor
Like vault, floor is not the deepest event for the Europeans right now. The gold medal favorites are probably the defending champion Angelina Melnikova as well as Melanie De Jesus Dos Santos, the two who really bring the big and might be able to snatch a 14 at some point.

With its floor-focused team, Russia will hope to put a second person into the floor final (either Akhaimova or Simakova), and France may put a second person in as well depending on how Marine Boyer performs. Most importantly, it won’t be an acceptable floor final unless Axelle Klinckaert is in it, so that will be an issue to watch on the qualification day. It must be done.

Elsewhere, if you can get a 13 on floor, you’ve got a shot at making this final. Romania’s best chance for a medal likely comes here from Denisa Golgota, I’d put Tisha Volleman and maybe Pauline Schäfer in the mix, and while all of Great Britain’s serious floor medal hopes are missing this competition, I could see Alice Kinsella sneaking in depending on how things go.

There are a couple big players on floor right now and then a whole lot of 12.7s, and this final could go about 1500 different directions.