Item #1: Morgan vs. Ragan vs. Riley
Yes, I’m beginning this preview with a little twist and not starting with Simone. Now that Simone is back and already looking inevitable again, the big story shifts to figuring out who will be her all-around partner in the role that Kyla Ross and Aly Raisman inhabited so diligently last quad. It’s going to get real.
Morgan Hurd is the defending world champion, Ragan Smith is the defending national champion, and Riley McCusker is the only non-Simone American to have gone 57 this year.
Only 2 people will be able to go in the AA final at worlds.
Only 3 people will (most likely) go in the AA in qualification.
This town ain’t big enough.
Well, it’s big enough for them all to go to worlds, potentially. That would be…sort of a good team. But this town definitely isn’t big enough for everyone to fulfill her AA dreams at the same time.
On both difficulty and execution, all three are tightly packed and could end up finishing in any order. At US Classic, McCusker ended up a little more than a point ahead of Hurd, who had a fall, while Hurd had 0.3 more difficulty than McCusker. If Smith had done AA, she likely would have been ahead of both on difficulty but behind both in the final scores because of her miss on bars.
(Smith did have some more Stadler Tkatchev-ing problems in podium training today—I saw two mat slams and a tuck-to-save—but worked it out occasionally. That Ricna will be one of the key skills of nationals.)
While an actual decision about where all three stand in the all-around picture will be made based more on selection camp and closer-to-worlds training than on this competition, nationals should still give us an indication about which way the wind is blowing. Does McCusker have the floor composition and vault consistency to keep up with the other two? Is Smith back to full strength? Is she adding the upgrades she teased at Classic? I didn’t notice any upgrades in podium training for Smith for the moment, save for a triple wolf on beam instead of double wolf. Even without upgrades, she’s still looking at a modest D-score advantage. But is she ready to beat the others?
From the PT stream, it looked like Hurd went back to the double double tucked instead of the layout version. It’s a tenth downgrade in difficulty if that’s her competition plan, but I’m not opposed to it. It may very well be the E-smart decision for her. Competing as the sturdy one throughout this process will be a big deal for Hurd, especially with Smith not as far along in her preparation as the other two and McCusker’s ability to stay at the same level of performance and health through a whole season still an unknown quantity.
With this trio, it certainly feels like “The one you know you can rely on” is still an identity open to be claimed by someone with her upcoming meet performances.
Item #2: The vaults
Now, to Simone. It would be a massive shock if Biles doesn’t win the all-around title here, of course, and with her already showing her upgrades at US Classic, we pretty much know what we’re going to get. Although, she did manage to tease some further later-year upgrades in her interview, so everyone start freaking out about double doubles off beam and TTYs or whatever.
The only real difference we saw from Simone in podium training this time around (aside from suddenly and momentarily forgetting how to Weiler on bars, but don’t worry about it) was the addition of her second vault. Surprise, surprise, she can still Amanar.
This is clear world-vault-champion stuff when added to her Cheng, but it’s also an important factor for someone like Jade Carey, whose ability to get vault medals has been her main thing for the past year. “Second-best vault specialist” isn’t usually a title that gets people on to teams. But not so fast. Perhaps the most significant development of podium training was Carey going all-in on the floor passes in an effort to make her floor routine a necessity.
Carey upgraded two of her passes from the FX she competed at US Classic, upping the DLO to a DLO 1/1 (F to H), and upping the final pass to a full-in, a total tumbling addition of three tenths. That puts her directly into near-Simone territory and creates some distance between her and the rest of the floor workers.
Those upgrades could be quite necessary for Carey because we’ve been taking it for granted that she would have a better-than-DTY vault to be used in a team final, but that’s not a given. Carey is attempting to add back that essential Amanar here, but of the two I saw in PT, one was strong with a step forward, and one she jusssssst pulled out, landing it in a very deep squat. Her Amanar is a piece the US team definitely needs, but only if it is 1000% consistent. (And it appears the Kas is dead? At least for now?)
Nothing is set in stone. There’s still a potential vault opportunity for someone else (even if Carey is hitting that Amanar), though its not immediately clear who that would be. Jordan Chiles started with a couple DTYs in podium training then moved up to Amanars, sitting the two attempts that I saw.
Item #3: The Pan Ams Team
Getting less play than the worlds team (because it’s less important) is the selection of the team for the Pan American Championships in September. Yet for many of these seniors—those who know they don’t have a super-great shot to get onto the worlds team—there’s a ton riding on these national championship performances because of that meet. These are the routines that will be used to select the Pan Am Championship team, and making that team would be a crowning Team USA international assignment in the elite careers of many of them.
I’m assuming Pan Ams will still be a six-person team as it was four years ago, and my preference would be for selecting completely different Pan Ams and World Championships groups (including alternates) in order to get the most out of the limited number of competition opportunities in 2018.
Even with that premise in mind, the group of six could go many different ways. It could be an elite swan song for gymnasts like Marz Frazier and Trinity Thomas should they decide to focus solely on NCAA after this summer. Although, if you’re in the “MUST GAIN INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE FOR FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES” camp, that wouldn’t be the most prudent use of these spots.
This could also be “the test” for athletes who have been seniors for a couple years now but are still just on the outside, like Jordan Chiles or Alyona Shchennikova. Are they still in the mix, or no…? Complicating that, Chiles and Shchennikova will still have to decide whether they want to defer NCAA for a season to try to make Olympic Trials or just head to their colleges as planned and compete in the 2019-2020 season. Getting opportunities (or not) this year could help influence that decision.
Another convincing option would be to informally limit the Pan Ams team to only first-year seniors. From a pragmatic standpoint, they’re the group you want to keep in the fold for possible Olympic opportunities (because their bodies are most likely to be still working), the ones you don’t want getting disillusioned with their team-making prospects so that they drop down to L10 before doing NCAA.
I don’t necessarily know that the selection committee will be pulling out their olde tyme accountant visors to crunch the numbers in selecting this team—or whether they’ll just go by who would benefit most from the competition experience. By the numbers recorded so far, you’d definitely pick your Frazier/Chiles/Shchennikova gymnasts along with some of the new seniors because their 2018 scores (and overall scoring potential) are among the best of this not-necessarily-going-to-worlds group. But, if the team is ultimately selected based on giving athletes experience and gaining answers for selecting future teams, it’s not going to be the end of the world—or really even change the results—if you take a vague scoring hit in order to learn something about possible team members.
But the real results-based argument won’t be able to be made until after nationals. One of the key pastimes I’ll be undertaking as the competition progresses is weeding out all the Biles/Hurd etc. scores to see who among the rest would make up the best-scoring Pan Ams team. That group looks very amorphous, and there are plenty of spots to be won.
Is it crazy to think the team could be Biles+Hurd+Smith+McCusker+Carey and alternate to be named later? Its not a bad team at all as you said. Weakness bars obviously, with one true bar worker and 3 that can still put up mid 14 + scores depending on their e scores. But then again there arent a ton of bars gymnasts who would outscore a Hurd or Smith or Biles routine enough to consider taking her over the presumptive 5 as of now.
There are two interesting things here, though. If Malabuyo beats Smith here and in selection camp, she‘s on that team as they have the exact same strenghts and weaknesses. Also, the weakness of this team is bars. So what if Perea is back, petitions to selection camp? Wouldn‘t we take healthy perea over Hurd/Smith (whoever is not the third AAer, I think Riley takes that sport). Very interesting this year.
I love Emma, but I’m concerned about her from podium – she didn’t perform any tumbling on beam or floor (just a dance-through). Which means they’re probably saving her, since she’s dealing with a back injury? But it doesn’t necessarily bode well for her, since her strengths for a theoretical team are beam/floor/vault.
Anyway, as an Emma fan, I hope she’s doing okay and just resting.
You may already know, but if not, Emma has pulled out of nationals. She plans to go the September camp & hopefully petition to the World’s selection camp.
That is most likely the team. Usa gym has only uploaded their routines plus Marz Frazier’s floor and Trinity’s beam. So you know who they are looking at. I would say Trinity for traveling alternate and Marz for 2nd alternate. But I want to see where O’Keefe and Malabuyo stand! They were so promising as juniors.
Malabuyo didnt even do bars in podium, so Im not even sure she is going to AA.
I like this team except Ragan just does not look ready. Her falls from bars and her tumbling landings were scary. I hope she will be ready by the time they choose the team. Otherwise they might take a beam specialist instead.
Agree the most likely team is Biles, Hurd, McCusker, Carey, and Smith. However, one of the Smith/McCusker/Hurd trio would have to be an event specialist, so the way their AA scores stack up against each other and other contenders for a specialist spot will be important.
The only other remotely healthy person capable of challenging for an AA spot seems to be Emma Malabuyo (even though we won’t see her at Nationals). Also agree that in an ideal world Team USA would take a bars specialist, but the struggle is real for Alyona Shchennikova and her dismount. She could force herself into the Worlds conversation, though, with a couple more 14.9+ routines. Kara Eaker is another outside contender for her beam, but only if she’s outscoring Hurd, McCusker AND Smith.
wait… where’s maile okeef?
Injured.
I. Am. So. Excited.
Spencer I HOPE you’re doing live quick hits tomorrow as live streaming isn’t available in NZ.
I live in New Zealand and there is an international feed normally on USAGym’s Youtube channel.
Who is on the selection committee now? With all of the “departures” I’m not exactly sure who is choosing the Worlds team this year.
By the way, if no one has stepped up, call me USAG. As an attorney who has worked on abuse cases and has advised organizations on mandatory reporting laws for vulnerable populations, I will also make sure the past failures aren’t repeated. It’s a win-win. I’ll consult BBS regarding our best team composition and I won’t do anything illegal.
Shouldn’t Morgan only lose a tenth with the tumbling change? Double double tuck = H, and double double lay = I
Purely from a scoring standpoint I really don’t think anybody in the world should be doing a layout double-double currently. Not even Simone. Her layout double-double is a stupendous piece of gymnastics, but I don’t think it’s getting dinged only one more tenth than her DLO 1/1 would.
She would get the same D-score by downgrading her Moors to a Chuso if she can instead upgrade the full-in to DLO.
Thank you! The Moors is not worth it for anyone; not even Simone. If they upgraded it to a J, then it should it be a consideration, but not now.
Agreed. Simone’s is by far the most laid out so with the fewest form deductions but she has had very bouncy landings out of it, i.e. risks going OOB.
I feel like Hurd would get second AA spot. If the team was to be Biles, Hurd, McCusker, Carey and Smith, Biles would obviously do the AA in qualifications. That leaves 3 spots on each of the events. Carey will do floor and vault because those are her pet events. Between McCusker, Hurd and Smith, Hurd is the better vaulter, floor worker and #2 bars (in terms of the team). Plus she is the world all around champion. We will see how Smith and McCusker perform at nationals but I could totally see them go with Smith as AA #3 just because I don’t see Smith not performing floor and vault over McCusker.
However, I really don’t see why they would need Smith. McCusker is descent enough as an AA (with beam and bars the scores that pull her scores up). Maybe they should go for a bars and beam specialist like say Adeline Kenlin?
Kenlin has been injured and barely seen in competition this year too. At this rate, I feel like this world team is going to be whoever is left standing at the end of the selection camp. Forster may be thanking his lucky stars Marz and Thomas have stuck around so far as they seem to be among the few healthy athletes. Jade is coming back from injury, Simone has two different toe issues, I have lost track of Ragan’s injuries. Riley is healthy at the moment but I wouldn’t be surprised if she breaks too. Hurd seems to be healthy for the moment.
Unless Hurd keeps falling or imploding, she has a fair bet of doing AA to “defend” her title, a la Gabby Douglas. That leaves one more AA spot left, most likely go to Mccusker. i would bet these are the 3 doing AA at world unless something changes….
I’m definitely betting on Hurd and McCusker to be the dynamic duo behind Simone. Ragan’s looking ragged as a result of, you know, not getting that surgery she needed. Assuming she keeps her presumptive Worlds spot, I see her being there in a beam specialist role.
Honestly, at this point, I could see Trin getting the nod for a steady UB/BBer. I wouldn’t put money on it, but I don’t see it outside the realm of possibility.
Trin is no more likely to happen this year than any other year the gymternet has desperately tried to make her happen. She will be an excellent NCAA gymnast. However her bars are not competitive at a worlds level, nor is beam really a stand out.
I also think people are jumping the gun on Riley. She had one great meet. She still needs to back it up. I’m also rather depressed that US gym is in a state where it is a presumption that Morgan Hurd is the number two All a rounder. She has had exactly one competition in two years she didn’t fall and that was the World all around final. In prior years the US team would be strong enough that people who fall wouldn’t be considered. Now we take them as our number two all arounder.
Hurd didn’t fall at the American Cup this year either.
Ragan’s pretty busted and Riley’s made of glass. Trinity won’t go if they’re in fighting shape, which I hope they are, but if they do get taken out by injuries, I could see her being an option to fill that role.
What about bringing the top two event specialists (that aren’t AAs i.e. Simone, Hurd, and McCusker). BB could be Kara Eaker (she has the 2nd highest BB score so far in the world right now, right behind Simone) or Ragan Smith (if she is back to top form) and for Bars I could see Alyonna Shennikova as UPB specialist if she can hit around 15.00 consistently. For worlds it would be:
Vault – Simone, Hurd, McCusker
UPB – McCusker, SimoneS, Schennikova
BB – Simone, Eaker, Hurd or McCusker
FX – Simone, Hurd, McCuskder
If they want to do away with specialists for Bars and Beam, I would substitute in Jade Carey for FX and V so it would look like:
Vault -Simone, Carey, Hurd
UPB – McCusker, Hurd, Simone
BB – Simone, Hurd, McCusker
UPB – McCuskder, Hurd, Simone
FX – Simone, Carey, Hurd
I am not sure which would be the highest scoring potential but Vault is a higher scoring apparatus so I would go with the 2nd scenario with Jade Carey as FX and V specialist. Unfortunately, FX is the lowest scoring apparatus so far (aside from Simone) so the committee needs to look at what combination of athletes brings in the highest scoring and the ability to bring in medals. For MEDALS, I see Simone getting Gold in the AA, V, BB and FX; McCusker maybe getting a bronze for UPB, and Carey getting a FX/Vault medal. Plus, Team GOLD.