Women’s qualification

Team Qualification	2018 World Championships (3)	United States Russia China
Team Qualification	2019 World Championships (9)	The top 9 teams in qualifying, not including the three above
Individual Qualification	2019 World Championships (20)	The top 20 all-around in qualifying (1 per country), not including athletes on the 12 qualified teams.
Individual Qualification	2019 World Championships (12)	The top 3 from event finals on each piece, not including those on qualified teams or qualified through the AA
Individual Qualification	2018-2020 Apparatus World Cup Series (4)	The winners of the series on each event at its conclusion (Mar 28, 2020). In-progress qualifiers: Jade Carey Lyu Jiaqi Marine Boyer Vanessa Ferrari **
Individual Qualification	2020 All-Around World Cup Series (3)	The top 3 countries at the end of the series (Apr 7, 2020) receive a spot they can award to anyone they wish
Individual Qualification	2020 Continental Championships (9)	The top 2 in the AA final at continental championships (1 for Oceania) earn spots for themselves, or for their country if the country already has a team
Individual Qualification	Host country (1)	Japan’s host-nation spot. It will be given to an alternate from the worlds AA standings once Japan officially doesn’t need it.
Individual Qualification	Tripartite commission (1)	1 spot is reserved for an athlete from an under- represented country, TBD.

**Jade Carey leads the apparatus qualification standings on both vault and floor, but she takes the vault spot on the tiebreaker (better cumulative results), so the floor spot would go to the #2-ranked athlete.

Team Qualification – How They Match Up

An update of last month’s comparison, ranking the likely contending nations for the remaining 9 team qualification spots based on how each country’s best-scoring group of five senior gymnasts would do in a three-scores-count format using each gymnast’s top score on each apparatus recorded at a major international meet this year. Short version: don’t be remotely surprised if the same 12 teams that made Rio make it to Tokyo as well.

1. FRANCE – 167.032
Melanie DJDS	14.433	14.033	13.733	13.833
Lorette Charpy	13.600	14.100	13.700	13.100
Marine Boyer	0.000	11.966	14.100	13.300
Coline Devillard	15.000	0.000	12.300	12.833
Aline Friess	14.800	12.900	12.200	12.966
167.032	44.233	41.033	41.533	40.233
The handspring rudi that Aline Friess debuted at European Games for 14.800 on both days is a potential game changer, but I still have to think France would prefer a bars routine from Bossu to two big vaults from Devillard and Friess.
2. CANADA – 166.013
Ellie Black	14.500	14.266	13.800	13.266
Ana Padurariu	13.533	14.666	14.333	13.600
Denelle Pedrick	14.250	11.700	12.000	12.300
Victoria Woo	13.666	13.433	12.600	12.833
Laurie Denommee	13.566	12.866	13.133	13.100
166.013	42.416	42.365	41.266	39.966
I know Denelle Pedrick is not typically in the elite mix and competed as a L10 at nationals this year, but if Canada ultimately feels like Black, Padurariu, Moors, and Olsen have things covered as best as anyone can manage on the other pieces, it could be worth putting Pedrick in there just for her DTY.
3. ITALY – 165.731
Alice D’Amato	14.633	14.400	12.466	12.700
Asia D’Amato	14.633	14.033	11.967	12.900
Elisa Iorio	13.633	14.300	13.350	12.633
Giorgia Villa	14.300	13.533	13.766	12.666
Lara Mori	13.250	12.700	12.850	13.866
165.731	43.566	42.733	39.966	39.466
This year, expect an Italian team packed with those new seniors to deliver the kind of scores on bars Italy hasn’t enjoyed in quite some time. I’m still a little worried about this group’s scores and consistency on beam and floor (be honest, you wouldn’t be that surprised to see one of the old standbys like Ferrari or Ferlito to swoop to do those two events at worlds, would you?), but Italy is on track for its best team result in a while, and at just the right time.
4. GREAT BRITAIN – 165.297
Alice Kinsella	14.200	13.800	13.566	13.100
Ellie Downie	14.500	14.066	13.333	13.466
Amelie Morgan	14.100	13.900	13.033	12.666
Claudia Fragapane	0.000	0.000	0.000	13.600
Becky Downie	0.000	14.433	0.000	0.000
165.297	42.800	42.399	39.932	40.166
The return of the bars score from Becky Downie at European Games solidified things a little for GB (and Fenton and Morgan’s scores are essentially interchangeable right now, but Morgan delivers about .03 more), but we haven’t seen Frags do a lot of vaulting lately. GB is going to want her vaulting if she’s to be on the same worlds team as Becky Downie.
5. NETHERLANDS – 163.847
Sanna Veerman	14.100	14.133	12.166	11.833
Eythora Thorsdottir	13.600	13.866	13.550	13.666
Tisha Volleman	14.000	13.000	12.366	13.333
Naomi Visser	13.800	14.100	13.433	13.200
Sara van Disseldorp	13.366	12.200	12.666	12.733
163.847	41.900	42.099	39.649	40.199
Netherlands has put up some reassuring performances recently, and if van Gerner gets back and Lieke continues this trajectory in her return as well, this can be a very formidable group.
6. BELGIUM – 163.299
Maellyse Brassart	13.600	13.300	13.166	13.100
Jade Vansteenkiste	13.733	12.866	11.333	13.233
Fien Enghels	0.000	14.200	13.033	12.866
Nina Derwael	13.566	15.233	13.633	13.066
Senna Deriks	13.533	13.533	12.733	12.533
163.229	40.899	42.966	39.965	39.399
We have seen a change this year for Belgium, an introduction of depth. For the last quad+, Belgium has fielded a competitive team, but an exact specific five had to be healthy (and as Mys and Waem left, Kinkcaert and Brassart took their places in that five). If people like Hermans and Klinckaert were out (as we’ve seen recently), Belgium just wouldn’t have a team score. Now, new seniors like Enghels and Vansteenkiste have come in to give Belgium a little more buffer for someone critical being out.
7. JAPAN – 162.774
Asuka Teramoto*	14.600	13.800	13.333	13.600
Hitomi Hatakeda*	14.075	14.000	13.100	13.050
Aiko Sugihara*	14.100	12.866	13.000	13.250
Nagi Kajita*	13.033	11.766	11.366	12.833
Akari Matsumura*	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
162.774	42.775	40.666	39.433	39.900
The * indicates when athletes have officially been named to the 2019 worlds team. Japan showed us at the University Games (for the most part) that the team can still put up successful scores without Mai, especially if Hitomi Hatakeda continues hitting like that. The fifth member of the team has been named as Akari Matsumura by virtue of her having a DTY, but she does not have any international-meet scores to include here.
8. GERMANY – 162.514
Kim Bui	13.800	14.400	12.766	13.233
Elisabeth Seitz	14.500	14.233	12.466	13.200
Pauline Schäfer	13.450	13.266	13.666	0.000
Isabelle Stingl	13.600	11.333	12.566	13.050
Leah Grießer	13.133	13.150	12.800	12.800
162.514	41.900	41.899	39.232	39.483
Germany really should be one of the 9 qualifying teams at worlds this year and is too talented not to make the Olympics as a full squad—Seitz, Schäfer, Bui, Scheder, Voss is still such a formidable-seeming group—but what we’re seeing right now is a German team that’s exceptionally reliant on a select group of veterans all being healthy at the same time. You worry whether that next generation of backup routines/future stars is coming along or not.
9. UKRAINE – 161.630
Valeria Osipova	13.933	12.400	12.266	12.400
Anastasia Bachynska	14.000	13.566	13.533	13.200
Diana Varinska	13.800	13.966	13.100	13.266
Angelina Radivilova	13.900	12.367	13.333	13.033
Yana Fedorova	13.700	12.800	12.000	11.800
161.630	41.833	40.332	39.966	39.499
It was an up-and-down European Games for Ukraine, but one that featured enough good moments like the floor performances from Varinska and Bachynska to remind us that Ukraine must be considered a contender for an Olympic team spot.
10. AUSTRALIA – 160.633
Georgia-Rose Brown	13.700	13.633	12.266	12.400
Emily Whitehead	13.633	13.233	12.833	12.500
Emma Nedov	13.333	13.333	14.100	13.033
Elena Chipizubov	12.866	12.166	13.200	12.766
Georgia Godwin	13.733	13.500	13.266	12.766
160.663	41.066	40.466	40.566	38.565
11. HUNGARY – 159.715
Sara Peter	14.533	0.000	9.450	12.533
Nora Feher	12.966	13.550	12.800	12.466
Dorina Böczögo	13.750	12.650	0.000	13.000
Bianka Schermann	13.550	13.900	11.800	11.733
Zsofia Kovacs	13.933	14.000	13.450	11.333
159.715	42.216	41.450	38.050	37.999
12. BRAZIL – 159.445
Flavia Saraiva	14.600	13.266	13.033	13.666
Thais Fidelis	13.566	12.300	12.933	13.266
Carolyne Pedro	13.733	12.566	12.233	12.933
Jade Barbosa	0.000	13.650	0.000	0.000
X	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
159.445	41.899	39.482	38.166	39.865
Things are not quite as dire as all this, even without Andrade. Brazil went all-in on a very specific group of gymnasts in international meets early in the year, so there’s not a lot of backup scores to use right now. If you were to give the team the scores from Lorrane Oliveira and Jade Barbosa from nationals (high but still), they’re in the mid 162s, which is probably more reflective of where this team is without Andrade. In the 9, but not safely so.
13. ROMANIA – 158.730
Iulia Berar	13.266	12.533	12.950	0.000
Carmen Ghiciuc	13.466	11.933	13.100	10.933
Denisa Golgota	14.500	12.966	13.500	13.866
Ana Maria Puiu	13.600	12.100	13.233	12.900
Maria Holbura	13.233	11.300	12.533	12.966
158.730	41.566	37.599	39.833	39.732
Romania will not arrive at worlds with the expectation of Olympic qualification, but the way things have been going, the fact that it’s not completely out of the question feels like a win.
14. SPAIN – 158.446
Alba Petsico	13.600	12.566	12.033	12.766
Laura Bechdeju	13.400	13.100	12.033	13.250
Ana Perez	13.666	13.733	12.733	13.500
Nora Fernandez	13.766	13.266	11.500	11.600
Cintia Rodriguez	13.333	12.333	13.033	12.733
161.682	41.032	40.099	37.799	39.516
There’s some hearty talent in this generation of Spanish gymnasts, and a few newbies who are showing competitive scores on select pieces. There’s probably not enough depth to get up into the fancy places, but the scores haven’t been too, too far away so far this year.

Individual Qualification – Worlds

For gymnasts in the “but how does little old me make it to the Olympics when I don’t have a big GRRR team qualifying me there???” territory, the best route (and often only route) is going to be through all-around performance in qualification at 2019 worlds.

Olympic qualification for the women is very AA heavy, and the good news for AAers is that there will be A TON of Olympic spots awarded this way. There’s a baseline of 20 spots and will end up being many more than that (see below).

Here’s a little experiment. I took the results of 2018 worlds, and imposed the assumption that the 12 teams that qualified to the Olympics in 2016 do so again this time. If that happens, here are the 20 athletes who would have advanced to the Olympics with nominative spots by virtue of their worlds AA performance if this were done in 2018:

Denisa Golgota (ROU)
Zsofia Kovacs (HUN)
Ana Perez (ESP)
Yeo Seojeong (KOR)
Frida Esparza (MEX)
Erin Modaro (AUS)
Martina Dominici (ARG)
Diana Varinska (UKR)
Filipa Martins (POR)
Aneta Holasova (CZE)
Kim Su Jong (PRK)
Gabriela Janik (POL)
Jessica Castles (SWE)
Simona Castro (CHI)
Rifda Irfanaluthfi (INA)
Ilaria Käslin (SUI)
Caitlin Rooskrantz (RSA)
Tutya Yilmaz (TUR)
Mandy Mohamed (EGY)
Ting Hua-Tien (TPE)

With one spot available per country, and all the gymnasts on the top-12 teams removed, that takes us all the way down to 66th place (and an all-around score of 48.865) to come up with 20 gymnasts.

Ultimately, we’re going to see many more than 20 gymnasts make it from the 2019 worlds AA standings because when other spots go unused, they are reallocated to the next in line in the worlds AA standings.

That becomes significant especially in terms of the 12 individual apparatus spots that are also available at 2019 worlds. Those 12 spots (3 per apparatus) can be earned only by athletes who advance to the event finals. This part of qualification was obviously written with MAG in mind because you don’t really have a lot of gymnasts outside the top 12 teams who even make event finals on the women’s side. There will probably be a few on vault, but it would be unsurprising if most of those 12 spots go unused and are reallocated to the AA standings.

Let’s continue that 2018 experiment: Alexa Moreno, Oksana Chusovitina, and Pyon Rye Yong would get spots for vault, and Jonna Adlerteg would get a spot for bars, but the remaining 8 positions would go unused and revert back to the AA field, adding these gymnasts to the Olympic qualifying list:

Hanna Traukova (BLR)
Marina Nekrasova (AZE)
Danusia Francis (JAM)
Julie Erichsen (NOR)
Elina Vihrova (LAT)
Jasmin Mader (AUT)
Dayana Ardila (COL)
Tienna Nguyen (VIE)

So that brings us down to 79th place in the all-around standings and an all-around score of 47.399. (And if you add in Japan’s unused host country spot, that would mean that Maija Leinonen (FIN) in 80th would qualify as well.)

Individual Qualification – World Cups

We have the best idea of how things will go in terms of the Apparatus World Cups because the series is halfway over. Four events down, four to go. The full standings and rules are here.

For now, Jade Carey is in solid position to qualify for vault, though Maria Paseka could give her a run with winning performances at next year’s events, so Carey probably needs to keep going to these meets to protect against that. Lyu Jiaqi and Fan Yilin are pretty close to each other on bars and that could go either way, but at this point expect someone from China to get that spot.

Beam is going to be a free-for-all, especially because current leader Marine Boyer should qualify with a team at worlds and therefore become ineligible for the spot. Carey, Ferrari, and Mori are well ahead of the pack on floor at this point, but Ferrari is looking pretty good if Carey qualifies by virtue of the vault spot instead and Mori ends up being part of Italy’s worlds team that should qualify a squad.

We won’t know anything about the all-around world cups until 2020, but invitations go out to those limited-field events based on the team results from 2019 worlds, so this is an area where the top countries will hope to earn extra individual spots in addition to their teams of four.

The US women will almost surely get a spot, and the remaining spots will essentially be a test of which country has the best pair of all-around gymnasts. Because these events are so tightly packed—four AA meets in the span of less than a month—countries aren’t going to want to send the same person to all of four them unless it’s Bart or a similarly putty-constructed lovable psychopath. That’s a lot to expect of one individual.

A more likely successful strategy will be to send two strong athletes to two events each, so the teams who have those two separate strong all-around athletes will be the most competitive.

Individual Qualification – Continental Championships

The top 2 athletes in the all-around at each continental championship (except for poor Oceania, which gets 1 spot) receive spots at the Olympics for themselves…unless they compete for an already-qualified country, in which case the spot goes to the country.

The twist here is that gymnasts who were part of the qualifying team at worlds in 2018 or 2019 are not eligible. So while you might think, “Oh, Russia can send Melnikova to Euros to get another spot for Russia,” they can’t because she qualified with the team in 2018. Many of those other top AA gymnasts in the world—like MDJDS, Ellie Downie, Nina Derwael—are expected to have qualified as part of teams in 2019, which will open up qualification a little bit more than expected in a continent like Europe. Expect that a number of top countries won’t send full-strength teams to Euros in 2020 because they want to send athletes who are eligible to earn them another Olympic spot.

That means in most cases, these meets are going to be a test of the strength of new 2020 seniors (who won’t have participated in those team-qualifying squads at worlds or already qualified through 2019 AA performance) or someone like the 6th-best gymnast a country has to offer to see who can get those remaining Olympic spots.

(Part of the plot twist of the Mai Murakami situation is that if she doesn’t end up going to worlds, and Japan nonetheless qualifies a team, she could earn Japan an extra non-nominative spot by winning the AA at the 2020 Asian Championships.)

Men’s qualification

Team Qualification	2018 World Championships (3)	China Russia Japan
Team Qualification	2019 World Championships (9)	The top 9 teams in qualifying, not including the three above
Individual Qualification	2019 World Championships (13)	The top 13 all-around in qualifying (1 per country), not including those on the 12 qualified teams. This was supposed to be 12 spots, but because Japan has already qualified a team and does not need its reserved host spot, that spot was reallocated to the worlds AA standings.
Individual Qualification	2019 World Championships (18)	The top 3 from event finals on each piece, not including those on qualified teams or qualified through the AA
Individual Qualification	2018-2020 Apparatus World Cup Series (6)	The winners of the series on each event at its conclusion (Mar 28, 2020). In-progress qualifiers: Carlos Yulo Lee Chih-Kai Liu Yang Igor Radivilov Ferhat Arican Epke Zonderland
Individual Qualification	2020 All-Around World Cup Series (3)	The top 3 countries at the end of the series (Apr 7, 2020) receive a spot they can award to anyone they wish
Individual Qualification	2020 Continental Championships (9)	The top 2 in the AA final at continental championships (1 for Oceania) earn spots for themselves, or for their country if the country already has a team
Individual Qualification	Tripartite commission (1)	1 spot is reserved for an athlete from an under- represented country, TBD.

Team Qualification

In addition to the teams that have already qualified—China, Russia, and Japan—the next 9 best teams at worlds last year were USA, Great Britain, Switzerland, Brazil, Netherlands, Ukraine, Germany, Spain, France. A very realistic group of Olympic qualifiers, but there will be serious challenges. Beyond the likes of the US and GB, which will have no problem qualifying teams to the Olympics, there’s less of a clear-cut qualification group, and you have legitimate contenders like Turkey, Italy, and South Korea waiting right there (and others, but to me those three are the most compelling). All three of those nations have glorious scores on various pieces, with their contention for an Olympic spot hinging on whether they have the full three scores on every event and the question of how they manage getting as many high scores as possible onto a single team of five. It will be close.

What I’m saying is, between the team race and the pressure for individual apparatus stars who don’t have strong national programs (of which there are many more in MAG) to advance to the event finals, you should already be excited about men’s qualification at worlds.

Individual Qualification

Men’s Olympic qualification for individuals is focused far more on the apparatuses than is women’s qualification, which is more directed toward the all-around.

There are fewer spots awarded based on all-around standings in MAG and more based on the apparatuses (by virtue of there being more apparatuses in men’s gymnastics), so doing the 2018 experiment for the men, your 13 AA qualifiers** would be:

Nestor Abad (ESP)
Carlos Yulo (PHI)
Ahmet Onder (TUR)
Andrei Muntean (ROU)
Rene Cournoyer (CAN)
Marios Georgiou (CYP)
Artur Davtyan (ARM)
Ludovico Edalli (ITA)
Andrey Likhovitskiy (BLR)
Jossimar Calvo (COL)
Jonathan Vrolix (BEL)
Ilyas Azizov (KAZ)
Stian Skjerahaug (NOR)

**12 qualifiers as per the rules, and then an extra one because of the reallocation of Japan’s host spot as noted in the chart above.

That takes us down to just 35th in the AA standings (and a score of 78.398), compared to 66th place for the women.

For the men, 10 of the 18 available event final spots would then be used (Dolgopyat, Lee CK, Kurbanov, Petrounias, Lodadio, Tovmasyan, Ri SG, Shek WH, Srbic, Tang CH). There are more event-final-ready specialists from smaller countries in MAG, but it still means 8 spots would go back into the mix for more all-arounders:

Oskar Kirmes (FIN)
Ivan Tikhonov (AZE)
Tomas Kuzmickas (LTU)
Ryan Sheppard (HUN)
Nikolaos Iliopoulos (GRE)
Ri Yong Min (PRK)
Adam Steele (IRL)
Shiao Yu Jan (TPE)

So that brings us down to 58th in the AA standings (and a score of 76.365) compared to 80th place in the women’s AA standings.

We also have the scenario that once all these athletes qualify via worlds performances, they’ll be removed from the Apparatus World Cup qualification standings with their points redistributed to the athletes they finished ahead of. Which is going to shake up those standings like crazy, much more so than on the women’s side.