A. Worlds draw
The world championships “drawing of lots” (just say draw) has been revealed to us lowly peasants, and it’s…fine.
For the women, China, Canada, France, Romania, Germany, Belgium, Australia, and Ukraine were given the first day of qualification, which means that the US, Russia, Japan, the Netherlands, Italy, and GB got the second day. Australia and Ukraine have been placed in the first subdivision, so there’s some hemming and hawing about what that means for Olympic qualification chances. There is, however, not too much actual evidence to support the idea that competing in the first group is devastating in the open code era.
Last year, Belgium, Argentina, and Poland got put in the first subdivision, and Argentina and Poland were both able to qualify teams in the top 24 despite that being a borderline prospect heading into the competition, while Derwael recorded a bars score that held up in first place and an all-around score that held up in 4th place through to the end of the two days, in addition to her making the beam final with the #2 execution score given out across the whole two days. If you have the routines, you have the routines, and the judges have been willing to be there for you, even in early subdivisions. Sure, it’s going to be a challenge for Australia and Ukraine to make the Olympics and will require not counting falls in qualification, but that would be true regardless of the draw.
The US will compete in the final subdivision of the second day, beginning on floor, Russia competes late on the second day, and China and Canada compete in the final session of the first day.
Refreshingly, the top qualifier will go last in the women’s vault, bars, and floor finals, and second-to-last in the beam final, though why we can’t just have them compete in reverse qualification order is still a mystery to me. When the best people go up first, it turns into the most anticlimactic final.
Contrary to the definitive registrations (BUT I THOUGHT THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO BE DEFINITIVE), Poland is sending two people to worlds rather than one, so we may not face the Pihan-Kulesza/Janik problem after all.
The men’s draw contains 25 teams and not the typical 24 because Australia is also able to send a team to fulfill continental representation despite finishing 25th at worlds last year. Russia is the lone top men’s team competing on the first day, with Japan, China, the US and Great Britain all drawn into the second day. The US and Japan are paired together in the first subdivision on day 2.
B. NCAA transfer window
The hills are alive with the sound of transfers. First, Samantha Sakti has transferred from William & Mary to UCLA following her freshman season. Sakti peaked out at 9.925 on floor, 9.875 on beam, and 9.800 on vault last season. Obviously, it’s going to be quite a bit more difficult to make a UCLA lineup, but she has a high level full-in on floor that should make her at least a legitimate contender for that lineup. Sakti has a reasonable beam routine and good amplitude on a full on vault, so she could see time or be an exhibition/depth option kind of thing, though I’d say floor is the most likely place we’ll see her.
Maddie Quarles has transferred from Denver to Minnesota following a freshman season in which she dealt with injuries and we never ended up seeing a routine from her. Quarles was expected to contribute to Denver’s lineups on the leg events since she did show a Y1.5 in JO in 2017 and has E tumbling options.
Allie Smith has transferred from EMU to Washington for her senior season. She’s a vault and floor athlete who can supplement Washington on the exact events where the team was a little too thin last season, especially with a tucked Y1.5 on vault that I assume Washington will want to get into that lineup.
In non-transfer news, we learned that Abi Walker—former elite from Texas Dreams—is heading to Penn State in the fall. She was previously supposed to be a Georgia for the 2021 season.
Another important note in the NCAA world: an OU women’s gymnastics movie is being planned, telling the story of how EVIL BRENNA left the team in the lurch in 2016 by trying to pursue the Olympics and yet they still managed to win a national title. Or at least that’s how I read this description and casting notice, and I’m cackling. “Thin, white brunette with ponytail needed to play entire team.”
C. July schedule
US Classic, the European Youth Olympic Festival, and Pan Am Games will round out the month, so here’s what you need to keep track of.
July 19
2:30pm ET/11:30am PT – Hopes Championship
July 20
1:00pm ET/10:00am PT – US Classic juniors
6:30pm ET/3:30pm PT – US Classic seniors (Olympic Channel)
July 23
2:00am ET/11:00pm PT – EYOF – MAG Qualification/TF 1
5:45am ET/2:45am PT – EYOF – MAG Qualification/TF 2
8:45am ET/5:45am PT – EYOF – MAG Qualification/TF 3
July 24
2:00am ET/11:00pm PT – EYOF – WAG Qualification/TF 1
4:00am ET/1:00am PT – EYOF – WAG Qualification/TF 2
7:00am ET/4:00am PT – EYOF – WAG Qualification/TF 3
9:15am ET/6:15am PT – EYOF – WAG Qualification/TF 4
July 25
4:00am ET/1:00am PT – EYOF – MAG All-Around Final
8:00am ET/5:00am PT – EYOF – WAG All-Around Final
July 26
6:00am ET/3:00am PT – EYOF – Event Finals Day 1
July 27
6:00am ET/3:00am PT – EYOF – Event Finals Day 1
4:00pm ET/1:00pm PT – Pan Am Games – WAG Qualification/TF 1 – Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Jamaica, Dom Rep, Cayman Is
6:20pm ET/3:20pm PT – Pan Am Games – WAG Qualification/TF 2 – Chile, Puerto Rico, Cuba, Colombia, Guatemala, Venezuela, Panama
9:30pm ET/6:30pm PT – Pan Am Games – WAG Qualification/TF 3 –
USA, Brazil, Peru, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Uruguay, Bolivia
July 28
5:30pm ET/2:30pm PT – Pan Am Games – MAG Qualification/TF 1 – Brazil, Mexico, Canada, Argentina, Chile, El Salvador, Ecuador, Dom Rep, Uruguay, Puerto Rico, Guatemala, Bolivia
9:30pm ET/6:30pm PT – Pan Am Games – MAG Qualification/TF 2 – USA, Colombia, Cuba, Venezuela, Peru, Jamaica, T & T, Costa Rica
July 29
2:00pm ET/11:00am PT – Pan Am Games – WAG All-Around Final
7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT – Pan Am Games – MAG All-Around Final
July 30
2:00pm ET/11:00am PT – Pan Am Games – Event Finals Day 1
July 31
2:00pm ET/11:00am PT – Pan Am Games – Event Finals Day 2
D. GymCastic
Our latest episode is a US Classic preview where (spoiler alert) we don’t mention every single gymnast in the competition, plus special guest Lindsey Green went to see the Magnificent Seven musical and YOU GUYS.
Why the US is always in the last subdivision and never the first？
LOL. It’s a random draw. They aren’t always last. They were in the 5th subdivision of 11 last year. In Rio they were in the 4th of 5 subdivisions. IIRC in 2001 they were in the first subdivision.
which means they had good draw every year since 2002? Amazing.
In 2018, 5th out of 11 is a good draw?
Previously:
2015: 10th out of 12
2014: 5th out of 11
2012: 3rd out of 5
2011: 7th out of 10
2010: 7th out of 12
2008: 2nd out of 4
The first post said USA is always in the last subdivision and that is a completely inaccurate and false statement.
Due to the format of full teams in each subdivision, all 24 teams in WAG had an 8% chance of probability to get the 1st subdivision. Australia and Ukraine were the unlucky ones.
But again. The draw is LITERALLY……..RANDOM.
Just like the seeding for event finals. LOL or is that a conspiracy too?
If it was random it should be 50% of the time in the first half and 50% second half…. Seems to me the coin is a bit weighted toward the second half…lol… Oh welll…
I’m very concerned about the apparent lack of math education in this group. When you flip a coin, the chances are always 50/50 – but it’s also possible to get heads 10 times in a row.
The US has had mildly better than average draws, based on the not-entirely-proven idea that the later the session, the better.
Read about probability! https://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/statistics.html
“If you have the routines, you have the routines, and the judges have been willing to be there for you, even in early subdivisions.”
UNLESS YOU’RE CHINA. :/
China low key get robbed at the olympics
got*
Not sure why Spencer continues to say the subdivision doesn’t matter when it clearly does. Fan Yilin should have been in the Rio bars final even with her missed connections and only missed out on qualifying because E scores reached the stratosphere by the final subdivisions. Scores naturally start off tight when the judges have nothing to compare to (yes, I know routines are supposed to be scored against the code and not other gymnasts, but it’s impossible to avoid some level of comparison).
If you flip a coin it won’t alternate heads and tails. You might have to flip it more than 100 times to get a 50/50 split. There simply aren’t enough data points to even things out.
Belgium is always in the first subdivision, you can almost count on it. The US has had the advantage many many times. It still is a 50/50 chance but still, they should take previous draws into account.
Emma, it isn’t a 50/50 chance. If there are 10 subdivisions and 24 teams that have qualified, then you have a 16% chance of getting assigned to each of the subdivisions. If there are 12 subdivisions and 24 teams assigned, then you have an 8% chance of getting any of the subdivisions.
At the Olympics the chances increase due to a limited number of full teams and subdivisions.
Belgium is not “always” in the first subdivision.
2019: 2nd out of 12
2018: 1st out of 12
2016: 1st out of 5
2015: 8th out of 12
2014: 1st out of 12
2011: 8th out of 10
They were quite unlikely to get the first subdivision several times though.
@shamrockstar81 Does that mean in 03 04 05 06 07 09 13 17 19 the americans were in the last subdivision?
2007 they were 9th out of 10 subdivisions.
2006 they were 5th out of 10 subdivisions.
2003 they were in 2nd out of 10 subdivisions
In 05, 09, 13, 17 there was no team event and athletes were divided up into 4 subdivisions as individuals.
I am unsure what you are trying to do/prove??
No offence, I just want to collect the statistics.
But obviously part of your info is wrong. In 2017, although it was individual worlds, the athletes from the same team actually competed together and the americans were in the last subdivision.
It will be very interesting to see CHN and CAN in the same qualification session. IMO, CAN is the most likely country outside of the big three to have a shot at a team medal this year (especially now that Rebeca Andrade is out for Brazil, sob), and CHN has looked the most vulnerable to being displaced over the last couple of years. Either way, it should be close!
I also agree with Canada, but I think France will also be in the hunt for a medal.
Canada got strong with Paduriaru and Black, but MDJS have now the second best AA score. I would say it will a good dispute. China is clueless for me. I don’t even count their bars and beam.
I would love to see the medals come down to Canada and France and traditional powers like China and Russia be left out in the cold. WAG needs some diversity, MJDS is da bomb, Black kicks ass her longevity and leadership (I know she is no Chuso but please, who is), Olsen rocks for doing NCAA and elite simultaneously, love Charpy’s clean gymnastics and Boyer’s artistry and difficulty on beam and floor, Padurariu and Moors are both national treasures.