US Worlds Team, By The Numbers

Lots and lots of acrimony over the worlds team this year—mostly by me, because scores and charts and frustration over “rank order” from previous selections—which is fine and normal.

But Spencer, why do you have a problem with the selected team if those were the gymnasts who earned it on the day?

My earlier post was hideously short on charts, so I’m going to try to answer that question and break things down a little bit in terms of WHY I think what I think with some examples and comparisons, even starting with a chart in favor of the selected team. (GASP I KNOW.)

The argument for the selected team

The argument for the selected team is based mostly on performances at selection camp specifically (at least the scores we have from the first day). So the more you value “hit on the day” reasoning, with the assumption that you’re then selecting athletes peaking at the right time, the more you’re likely going to approve of the team as selected. The team as selected (once again with the assumption that McCallum is the alternate because of her AA placement and because that seems to make the most sense in this 6) was the highest-scoring group on the day:

Biles	15.350	13.850	14.550	14.800
Lee	14.550	15.000	14.550	14.100
Skinner	15.050	13.500	13.650	13.850
Carey	15.250	13.350	13.400	13.900
Eaker	14.000	13.900	15.200	14.000
175.600	45.650	42.750	44.300	42.900

That exact chart is your argument for this team. It is so loaded on vault, that it doesn’t matter that the bars scores are so anemic that they’re even counting a fall from Biles.

That’s also why I think of Grace McCallum as the clear alternate in that group, because she can’t replace anyone to create a higher-scoring team.

That team scores better than your next best team on the day, which would have Leanne Wong in place of Skinner.

Biles	15.350	13.850	14.550	14.800
Lee	14.550	15.000	14.550	14.100
Wong	13.200	14.150	14.050	13.300
Carey	15.250	13.350	13.400	13.900
Eaker	14.000	13.900	15.200	14.000
175.400	45.650	42.750	44.300	42.900

The argument against the selected team

The argument against the selected team is that it is based on the assumption that Morgan Hurd will fall on bars (and that Leanne Wong will fall on vault) again, when that hasn’t been the story this season. Morgan Hurd has struggled mightily on floor to the point where you would never use her on floor in TF, but that hasn’t been the case on bars….until selection.

If we use the average score of the four big domestic days of competition this summer (Classic, Nats 1, Nats 2, Camp AA), the selected team comes out like this:

Biles	15.400	14.275	14.775	14.813
Lee	14.050	14.863	14.163	14.017
Skinner	14.800	13.283	13.463	13.575
Carey	15.038	12.838	13.188	14.138
Eaker	13.800	13.263	14.813	13.625
174.378	45.650	42.750	44.300	42.900

This team, based on average, has to count MyKayla Skinner’s bars score, which is the risk it opens itself up to. By average, this team falls behind teams like this one:

Biles	15.400	14.275	14.775	14.813
Lee	14.050	14.863	14.163	14.017
Wong	14.338	13.938	14.213	13.163
Carey	15.038	12.838	13.188	14.138
Eaker	13.800	13.263	14.813	13.625
174.621	44.776	43.076	43.801	42.968

This one (still a possibility if the alternate position is different):

Biles	15.400	14.275	14.775	14.813
Lee	14.050	14.863	14.163	14.017
McCallum	14.678	13.675	14.000	13.913
Carey	15.038	12.838	13.188	14.138
Eaker	13.800	13.263	14.813	13.625
174.648	45.116	42.813	43.751	42.968

And this one:

Biles	15.400	14.275	14.775	14.813
Lee	14.050	14.863	14.163	14.017
Hurd	14.425	14.063	14.013	13.075
Carey	15.038	12.838	13.188	14.138
Eaker	13.800	13.263	14.813	13.625
174.783	44.863	43.201	43.751	42.968

So basically it comes down to the age-old question of which is more important, an average of recent meets, or one specific, recent-est meet. And I will always defend the one that includes more data points.

The scenarios in my newly beloved MCCLURE system come out similarly to the ones based on pure average, so for the sake of ease and clarity, I decided to use basic average there, but if you’re curious, the highest-scoring team by average, except dropping the lowest and averaging the remaining three score, would be this one:

Biles	15.433	14.417	14.850	14.967
Lee	14.050	14.933	14.267	14.017
Hurd	14.450	14.567	14.050	13.417
Carey	15.083	13.233	13.333	14.217
Eaker	13.850	13.717	15.167	13.900
176.368	44.966	43.917	44.284	43.201

Compared to the selected team, which ends up here:

Biles	15.433	14.417	14.850	14.967
Lee	14.050	14.933	14.267	14.017
Skinner	14.867	13.283	13.650	13.800
Carey	15.083	13.233	13.333	14.217
Eaker	13.850	13.717	15.167	13.900
175.935	45.383	43.067	44.284	43.201

So these charts are why, despite the inconsistency of Morgan Hurd this year and some lower AA placements, I would put her on the team. The full collection of scores we have justifies that.