NCAA Week 9 Rankings

Full week 9 rankings

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The…elaborate prank?…that was Maggie Nichols being out with an ankle injury “for a while” was not a thing over the weekend as Nichols competed all four events for an AA score of 39.825. Just that. It helped Oklahoma record one of its highest team scores ever and come within comfortable striking distance of the all-time record NQS/RQS of 198.115. Already. It would take a 198.375 this Friday at home against Michigan (Maggie Nichols Senior Night Watch) for Oklahoma to break the all-time qualifying score record.

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Florida successfully removed its last “low” road score last Friday against Georgia and is therefore looking quite comfortable to stay at #2 for the remainder of the process. Because Florida’s scores are all pretty tightly packed, there’s not a lot that the Gators can gain in an individual weekend, but there’s also not a lot Florida needs to change at this point because the margin between #2 and #3 is so large. Florida’s own team NQS/RQS record is 197.895 from the 2014 season, which can be broken with a 197.900 this weekend at Penn State.

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UCLA managed to hang on with the #3 ranking, though the lower 197 recorded against Oregon State keeps the team in a somewhat vulnerable position for retaining a top-4 place (and #1 regional seed) because those bold road scores are weaker than what we’re seeing from teams like Utah and LSU. So there’s still some urgency in the score project for UCLA, the main goal this weekend being a 197.800 to ensure maintaining sole possession of #3 in next Monday’s rankings. And really, especially at home, that’s what UCLA should be scoring at this point in the season to make a case as a title contender.

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Utah did itself some good with the 197.675 in that strangely evaluated meet against Washington, both in terms of hanging onto 4th place amidst challenges from Michigan and LSU and in terms of keeping things close with UCLA. UCLA has the higher maximum after next week and will therefore control its ranking future, but Utah could move ahead depending on what both teams end up scoring. Utah also may face a serious challenge from Michigan, so another higher 197 is looking necessary to fend off the other teams as well.

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Michigan did it for a second week running on Friday with another 197.9, enough to gain two spots in the rankings and make an assault on a top-4 spot look like a realistic prospect. While UCLA and Utah both have higher maximums after this weekend, Michigan could pass either or both if those teams don’t perform up to the expected level and Michigan continues getting these 197.9s. Away at Oklahoma on Friday provides a tremendous opportunity for it.

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Another low 197 over the weekend was not enough to keep back the rush of Michigan’s 197.9s and therefore leaves LSU in a position that…well it’s not tragic, this ranking is fine…but if LSU is entertaining hope of a #1 regional seeding, we’re going to need to see a high 197 this weekend. All of the non-bold scores at this point are too low for a top-4 team, which means every remaining score must be better than that. Moving up remains an absolute possibility—LSU has a chance to get to #3 after this weekend if everything goes just right—but because LSU’s maximum is lower, that possibility is dependent on other famous teams not getting cracky scores. And do you really want to have to bank on that?

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Hitting that 197 mark against Oklahoma was a big deal for this Denver team, eager to prove that it can still score competitively with such a depleted roster. But it’s also still just a 197.000, which isn’t necessarily going to stand up in this portion of the rankings or keep Denver in the top 8 moving forward. Denver has an outside shot to move ahead of LSU this weekend in its final home meet but is mostly just looking to hang onto this sort of ranking, which will require another 197 to guarantee.

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Alabama was able to get its home-score picture solidly into the 197s over the weekend but would have been hoping for more if not for an obviously cursed set of uneven bars. Because Alabama stays at home this week, there’s not a lot of room to improve its qualifying score and the team will be at the mercy of Cal’s result—though it will also be possible to move ahead of Denver if Denver doesn’t elevate its scores.

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A bars clunker on Sunday left Cal without a usable score, though if it was going to happen, this was probably the weekend to do it because Cal was already relatively comfortable with its 197 home scores. This coming weekend’s visit to UCLA, however, presents an opportunity to get rid of that last low road score and move up in the rankings. Cal can guarantee moving ahead of Alabama with a 197.125 and could also be in the hunt to move ahead of Denver.

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Georgia’s mid-196 on Friday was not helpful to the project—but like Cal’s result, also not the end of the world because Georgia’s home scores were already the more solid collection of numbers. (Though it was perhaps slightly more concerning because Georgia’s mid-196 came while not counting a fall). This Saturday’s visit to Alabama presents an opportunity to drop a road score and potentially move ahead of Alabama/Cal, though because Georgia’s max is lower, any movement will be dependent on those teams’ performances.

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Given what all the other teams are doing, Minnesota’s recent run of 196.6s counts as a score gully and one that makes it difficult to get back into the single digits, though these results are far from problematic. This is officially a very strong, complete slate of scores. Moving up this coming weekend remains a possibility, though not a particularly strong one given the very drop-worthy road scores that Cal and Georgia are looking to get rid of. Those teams don’t have to do a ton to keep Minnesota in 11th.

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One of Washington’s best scores ever allowed the Huskies to move up a spot—though the difference between 12th and 13th is largely cosmetic since both teams go to the same regional site. We don’t typically associate Washington with huge home scores, but that reputation has been blown out of the water this season, and now the work left to be done is on those road scores with a two-meet travel weekend coming up. That maximum listed score is only in regard to Friday’s meet because we won’t know what the weekend maximum is until after Friday’s score is in. But the possibility to move up into the top 10 after this weekend must be treated as real.

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Kentucky recorded another 196.6 over the weekend, once again a good score but on par with the scores Kentucky has been putting up all season and therefore not really enough to set Kentucky up to increase its ranking in the coming weekends. That’s critical because right now, Kentucky is not into a position to challenge Georgia for the final evening spot at SECs. It’s not over yet, but it will take some immediate 197s to move out of this 12-13 zone.

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Oregon State is playing its role of late-coming spoiler quite well, moving up another four spots this week after what ultimately turned out to be a solid 196 against UCLA. Now comes the toughest part, however, because Oregon State remains at home for the next two weeks and doesn’t have that much room to improve its home scores right now. After staking a spot in the top 16, fending off the onrushing hordes will not be easy because Missouri, Arkansas, BYU, and Nebraska all have higher maximums after this weekend’s action, even if the Beavs get a season high.

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Auburn kept itself afloat in the top 16 by matching its season high on Friday—an important result. Like Oregon State, there’s not too much more room to drop scores with all these somewhat similar 196s hanging around, so Auburn will mostly be looking to fend off challenges from those same teams that Oregon State is looking to fend off. The way things are looking, there’s going to be some degree of rooting for other teams to miss in Auburn’s ranking future.

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Missouri was finally able to drop a mid-195 and make its big move over the weekend, out of the basement of the SEC, into the top 16, and into a very strong position to move up again given that another 195 still exists, aching to be dropped. Missouri’s maximum score after next Saturday’s visit to Nebraska (a critical meet for both) is far higher than that of Oregon State or Auburn, meaning it will take just 196.225 to ensure moving ahead of both teams in next week’s rankings. That’s a score Missouri should think is very attainable.

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A second straight week of bars problems saw Arkansas drop out of the top 16 and into the bottom spot in the SEC. Not an ideal place to be. But, Arkansas will still entertain hopes of moving up since it has a chance to drop a road score on Friday—and can even clinch moving ahead of both Oregon State and Auburn with a 196.825. Not an easy ask, but Arkansas has gone there before. A complication: Arkansas’s peak is still lower than that of Missouri, Nebraska, and BYU, so it’s possible for Arkansas to move ahead of some teams but drop behind others. Lots still to be decided here.

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Don’t sleep on BYU. (First, because they probably have a code of conduct against it.) BYU is snugly entrenched in this pack of teams capable of moving up as high as 14th depending on how things sort themselves out this weekend. Critically, BYU’s peak after this week is higher than that of Arkansas, Oregon State, and Auburn, so BYU does have the capability of guaranteeing a spot in the top 16—for next Monday at least—by scoring a season high this weekend.

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Basically, the nightmare ranking scenario came to pass for Nebraska over the weekend in terms of how many teams could pass while the Huskers weren’t competing. A ranking of #19 is a difficult spot to get out of, though certainly still possible because Nebraska has that 195.700 to drop and a higher maximum score than most of the teams in this 14-21 ranking zone. It will take exactly one big result on Saturday to get Nebraska back into a semi-comfortable ranking position.

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Iowa State managed another 196 over the weekend, but since it was a lower 196, ISU finds itself in a much more dire position for a top-16 spot than it was in just a couple days ago. While still in it, Iowa State has a lower maximum after its next meet than any of the teams ranked above, making the quest more difficult to get a seeded spot at regionals and avoid geographical placement.

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Don’t forget about the lurking specter that is Southern Utah. By qualifying score, SUU is currently well back of the top-16 contenders, but because that 194 road score still exists, the opportunity to move up remains present and significant. It’s going to take those 197s also manifesting at road meets for it to happen, but all of Southern Utah’s remaining road meets take place within the Narnia that is the MRGC, so you never know.

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All those 196s that NC State has been getting have finally manifested in the ranking with a surge of five spots to get into the top 25. Because NC State is quite far back of the 14-21 group in terms of qualifying score and peak total, challenging for a seeded place is not realistic right now. But considering that NC State had to do the play-in meets last season, being at #22 is huge progress and makes the play-ins seem an unlikely situation now. Not out of the woods yet. These teams from 22 down all still need to be worried about getting stuck in the 29-36 rankings for those play-in meets, but NC State is currently the most comfortable of the group.

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The issue for Illinois just a couple weeks ago was the absence of 196s on the qualifying score slate. That has been dealt with over the most recent competitions to give the Illini a reasonably solid look at staying in the top 28, but Illinois still has to be wary of how many teams have maximums this weekend higher than Illinois’s current NQS. The score improvements still need to come.

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Arizona’s road scores had been lagging behind, which made the 196.275 recorded at Cal over the weekend especially important in beefing up those totals and keeping Arizona in the top 25. This coming Friday and Sunday, Arizona has a double-home-meet weekend, which means there isn’t going to be a lot of initial room to improve the team’s ranking because the scores that really need to go away are those dangling road 195s.

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Penn State is in a similar position to Arizona, having recorded a hugely important score over the weekend (in this case a season-high home 196.575) but the real concern in staying in the top 28 at this point is the road scores, which cannot be addressed this weekend since Penn State stays at home. That leaves PSU somewhat vulnerable to getting dropped in the rankings this week since Utah State, Maryland, and MSU all have higher peaks.

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Utah State does have a higher maximum after this weekend than Arizona or Penn State, though that is incumbent on repeating that massive 196.8. which is not exactly a given. Going into the 196.2 zone would be helpful because it would ensure keeping Utah State ahead of Michigan State and in the comfortable, non-play-in part of the rankings for another week.

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Maryland is a fascinating case to watch because not only is the team super depleted right now, but it also performed one of its most gymnasticseseses ever over the weekend for a giant score, and also has a crap-ton of meets remaining with double weekends each of the next two. We have no idea where this team is going to end up, but the chances to improve its total are many.

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An unusable road result over the weekend saw MSU drop three spots right onto the cusp of the teams currently avoiding the play-ins with three meets to go. (And Stanford competes tonight with a chance to drop MSU to 29th right there.) At the same time, the main issue on the table is whether MSU ends up in the play-ins or not right now, and before the season, Michigan State would have taken just making regionals in a heartbeat.

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Stanford competes tonight at home with a chance to go as high as 24th with a season best total, which would make life even more difficult for the teams it passes. But also, Stanford has to hit. Everything that’s guaranteed to count right now is acceptably into the 196s, but the rest of the scores need to go for Stanford to feel truly safe.

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Iowa’s position is similar to Maryland’s in that, with so many meets remaining, this team has a ton of opportunities to change its current status and get out of a play-in meet spot. There’s also some safety to Iowa’s position right now because the team can’t get dropped out of the top 36 this weekend regardless of what happens, so it’s mostly aiming for the chance to rise, rather than fearing the chance to fall.

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West Virginia competes in its final road meet of the year on Sunday, which is a HUGE deal because the road scores are the issue keeping WVU in what is still a somewhat precarious position. Like Iowa, WVU’s regionals chances look fairly solid right now, but if those lower 195 road scores all get locked in and have to count, we could see West Virginia’s ranking drip drip drip down.

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It’s a bit surprising that Ohio State remains in such an uncertain position regardling the play-in meets—even if regionals qualification still looks somewhat solid—given how nationally competitive the team has looked at times this year, as recently as the Big Five. But, there are too many mid and low 195s here to be a convincingly competitive team for the top 28 (or to feel TRULY safe for the top 36).

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There’s quite a gap right now between Ohio State in 32nd and Central Michigan in 33rd, so I sort of think of those teams in the 29-32 zone as in contention for the top 28 and getting out of the play-in meets, while those in the 33-36 zone are just trying to keep up places at regionals. CMU had a successful double-meet weekend to get itself into the lead of the teams trying to keep up their regional spots, but the position is a very precarious one with Boise State and Arizona State still more likely to move up and drop CMU to 35th, and then with Pitt and North Carolina enjoying higher potential peaks after this weekend’s meets. It could get scary again very quickly.

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A mess of counting falls on Friday meant Boise State was not able to take advantage of the opportunity to move up in its final road meet, but there’s another opportunity coming on Thursday to drop that 194.450. That means Boise State should still be favored more than some of these other teams to get out of the danger zone.

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Arizona State competes tonight at Stanford with an opportunity to move up to a more comfortable ranking position, and can go ahead of Central Michigan even with just a moderate 195. That score should be very doable at this point. Arizona State is currently in a nervy ranking position but can allay those nerves simply by being OK at a couple road meets to drop those 194s.

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New Hampshire did not get the score it was looking for last weekend, and things are starting to look scary. UNH currently sits in the final qualifying position, but Pitt and UNC (and even Northern Illinois) have higher maximums after next weekend’s meets and will decide whether New Hampshire stays in the top 36 next Monday.

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With one of its best scores ever, Pittsburgh jumped from looking like an iffy contender right into the mix of possible regionals qualifiers. And with 194sstill to drop, Pitt will like its chances to continue moving up. Another 196 in the next meet would mean Pitt is definitely in the top 36 in the week 10 rankings.

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A third 196 over the weekend kept UNC’s dream alive, even if Pittsburgh doing even better made the quest that much more challenging. Those 194s still all have to go, so there’s no room for mistakes, but North Carolina will like the fact that it has a higher maximum than either New Hampshire or Central Michigan after this weekend. A 196.175 in the next meet would be enough to get up into the top 36 for the moment.

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Western Michigan came out the worse in that critical Western/Central meet, now sitting well back of the contenders for regionals and not able to catch them regardless of the score this weekend. Regionals is going to be a real challenge at this point and requires multiple higher 195s.

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Kent State is another team currently sitting in a life-support-adjacent position, but because there’s a lower 194 to get rid of, Kent State can still entertain hopes of challenging for that top 36 with that one big score that saves the day. But it needs to come now.

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GW’s chances are fading, but with that low 194 still to drop, next week’s maximum score remains in the competitive zone as long as the teams ranked above don’t meet their own goals. GW also has an extra meet remaining compared to most of these other teams, which helps.

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Northern Illinois “should” be too far back to have a realistic shot at this point, but the potential to drop that 193 gives NIU an opening to be that late-finishing upset team that breaks everyone else’s hearts. A season high in the next meet would get NIU to at worst 38th, which is suddenly right in contention.

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With three weeks of competition left, there are still opportunities for other teams, but the remaining teams don’t really have a great look at the top 36 at this point. It would take multiple great performances in a row, and some help, and weirdness.