Full week 10 rankings

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Oklahoma posted an obviously horrible and shameful 198.100 home score over the weekend with only one 10.000 (was it a try?) and therefore remains steady in NQS. The Sooners will compete in Minnesota on Saturday with another chance to set the all-time NQS record, needing “just” a 197.900 to do so, which is quite manageable.

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Florida equaled Oklahoma’s number with a 198.100 over the weekend, getting two 10s, which Florida will particularly appreciate because those were not 100% full, ideal postseason lineups. Florida returns home to compete on Friday and cannot catch Oklahoma for first place but remains solid in 2nd place and is highly likely to remain there through the end of the season.

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UCLA recorded its second-highest score of the season, and like Oklahoma and Florida, will be fairly encouraged that it was a big total that still did not represent the team performing to full potential (even on vault which did show major improvement). Because UCLA stays home this coming week, there’s not a ton of room to improve the team’s NQS until Pac-12s, so UCLA is vulnerable to being passed by Utah depending on what Utah does.

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Utah stayed at #4 this week but will have an opportunity to get up to #3 and pass UCLA next week by dropping that remaining 197.100. It will depend on what UCLA scores to know what Utah actually needs to do to pass, but since Utah competes the day before UCLA, Utah won’t know that yet and will be aiming for a 197.925, which is the score required to ensure a #3 ranking next week regardless of what UCLA does.

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Michigan stayed at #5 this week by recording a 197.4 road score at Oklahoma, a score that didn’t quite live up to the 197.9s of previous weeks but was still enough to push out the last remaining peasant-score 196 from the qualifying score slate. Michigan competes at home this week, and with solid home scores already, doesn’t have a ton more room to improve its score, but could still pass Utah if things go wrong for the Utes. A 197.575 keeps Michigan ahead of LSU for sure.

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LSU did hang on at #6 this week and improved its total slightly with another “I mean, it was better, but…” 197.0 at an Edney-absent quad meet in Texas. That officially means that a 197.1 will have to count for LSU this season, which makes it tough to move up much higher without some truly huge 197s in the next couple meets. It’s vaguely possible for LSU to pass Michigan next week, but also possible to be passed by Alabama if things don’t go great. It will take a 197.175 to guarantee LSU stays ahead of Alabama, which should happen……?

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Denver managed to stay at #7 this week by recording a high 196 in its home finale, a solid score especially for the roster depletion but not one that will help Denver move up any. Denver cannot move up higher than 7th next week after its visit to Nebraska (which should be a fascinating one), and could fall behind Alabama—not to mention teams like Cal and Minnesota if a number into the 197s doesn’t come this week.

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Alabama finished up its home schedule with another 197.4 to get those home scores looking hearty, now able to go to work on the road numbers. There’s still quite a bit of room for improvement with those road scores, so it’s possible for Alabama to go as high as 6th after next week, and the Tide would guarantee moving ahead of Denver with a 197.300, regardless of what Denver scores.

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Cal didn’t live up to its potential against UCLA on Sunday, though still did record a mid-196 that helped the NQS picture slightly, even if it’s a score the team will immediately aim to drop. Cal competes twice this coming weekend, so the listed maximum score reflects only what can happen after Friday’s road meet. After we get that score, we’ll have a sense of where Cal can go with Sunday’s home finale. Because Cal’s scores are already pretty tightly packed, moving up is not going to be that easy, but it should be possible if Denver stays in the 196s again.

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Minnesota ended its run of medium 196s over the weekend by recording one of the top numbers in program history, enough to move up a spot in the rankings and position the team to move even higher after Saturday’s meet against Oklahoma. Minnesota could theoretically pass teams all the way up to Denver in 7th depending on how things go, but that’s not the most likely development.

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Washington got its first really strong road score of the season on Friday but wasn’t able to take advantage of the two-meet weekend after counting a fall on beam on Sunday. It’s quite possible for Washington to move up next week, even into the single-digit rankings, but again is going to be fully dependent on other teams not reaching their desired scores. Making sure to fend off Georgia will take 196.825.

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A bars disaster (and coming from the people who are supposed to hit!) left Georgia with an unusable score in its visit to Alabama, a loss of two ranking spots, and not much room to improve its NQS in Saturday’s home finale. Passing Washington next week is…vaguely possible, but the good news for Georgia is that the buffer established over the lower-ranked teams from previous weeks means that UGA can go no lower than 12th after this weekend.

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A bars disaster in the home finale on Friday kept Kentucky from improving its qualifying score or from having a chance to unseat Georgia for the final evening-session place at SECs. Kentucky will at least be looking to keep itself ahead of Missouri after next week, which will take 196.750. Right in the team’s scoring wheelhouse.

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Missouri scored the exact same number as Kentucky over the weekend—a fine yet not remarkable 196.450—but because Missouri was able to use that score to replace a 195, Missouri rose from 16th to establish a much more comfortable position in the seeded spots (top 16). There are a couple teams that could pass Missouri with big performances in week 11, but Missouri can clinch another week at 14th with a 196.675.

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Oregon State’s challenge in competing at home last weekend as well as this coming weekend is that it provides little room to improve the qualifying score in a given meet, which we saw on Friday when a perfectly fine 196.750 meant the Beavs lost a ranking spot. In the home finale on Saturday, there’s no chance for Oregon State to move up any higher than 15th, and enough teams could pass that OSU falls out of the top 16 regardless of its score. A lot will be riding on Oregon State’s Pac-12 performance to get rid of that lowest road number.

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BYU was the lucky winner of the final spot in the top 16—for this week at least—after a 196.450 road score. If a 197 arrives in the team’s home finale on Saturday, there’s a chance to move up even higher, and 196.650 will be the goal score because that would be enough to ensure moving ahead of Oregon State.

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This run of not-great meets is really starting to catch up to Auburn, as a series of 9.7s saw the team lose to Rutgers over the weekend and drop out of the top 16. Auburn does have a slight chance to move up again if it delivers against Alabama in the next meet, but that is totally dependent on other teams, while Nebraska and Arizona State could pass regardless of what Auburn scores.

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Arkansas did hit five bars routines this time to resolve that two-week issue (a little bit) and get a counting score, though it did not change things enough to prevent a drop in the rankings. Because Arkansas competes at home next weekend, there’s not a huge chance to improve, even if getting into the top 16 would be possible if things go just right. Like Auburn, there’s also a serious chance that Arkansas gets passed by Nebraska and/or Arizona State if either has a big weekend.

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Things did not go as planned for Nebraska over the weekend as a counting beam fall left the team with a sub-196 score. Because other teams are having similar problems, however, the sky has not fully fallen yet. In fact, Nebraska has the same peak as BYU after this week (higher than Oregon St, Auburn, or Arkansas) and could very well get back into the top 16 in next Monday’s rankings, in fact guaranteeing it by scoring a 196.675.

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Iowa State recorded another 196.225 over the weekend, a fine score but not one that’s going to improve the team’s ranking or maximum score, which remains behind the other realistic contenders for a top-16 spot. Moving up on a couple teams in the teens is very possible but dependent on those teams missing.

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Arizona State competed three times since we last did this, with meets on Monday, Friday, and Sunday. By going well into the 196s at all of them, Arizona State achieved one of the largest qualifying score increases I’ve ever seen in a single week, moving from the regionals drop zone right into contention for a seeded place. The top 16 is not the very most likely outcome with so many teams sitting in the way, but it’s definitely possible. Arizona State will be looking for a 196.725 in its visit to LSU, which would clinch another ranking jump, moving ahead of Iowa State, Arkansas, Auburn, and Oregon State.

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Southern Utah had a missed opportunity on Thursday with counting falls on both bars and beam saddling the team with a low 195. There are still, however, two opportunities to get rid of those two remaining 195s, so SUU is still somewhat alive in the race for the top 16. It’s going to take another huge 197 and some misses from other teams to get up there, but it is still a concept that exists.

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NC State recorded another strong home score on Saturday to keep itself safe in the nice part of the 20s. The team is too far back to consider getting into the top 16 at this point, but those 196s are very useful in keeping NC State out of the play-in meets. For now. Because so many of the teams in the 29+ zone have really low road scores to drop, NC State could fall as low as 30th next weekend (a LOT would have to happen, but it’s possible) and is therefore going to need to continue getting serious scores to ensure fending them off. A 196.000 this weekend would officially confirm that NC State stays in the top 28 heading into conference championships.

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Illinois has a bit lower maximum score after next weekend than several of the other teams in this range like Iowa, Maryland, and Utah State, and could therefore get a little nervous for a top-28 position if all of those teams deliver. Getting close to another season high could end up being a necessity.

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Iowa finally arrived over a two-meet weekend (and has another one coming up this weekend—you OK Iowa?), which gives Iowa a fair amount of comfort in this position, clear of the 29+ zone and with more opportunities to get even farther away from the scary spots. Iowa will look to use those two meets to lift its current non-bold scores by about eight tenths overall to make sure it maintains a spot in the top 28.

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Stanford recorded a very strong score against Utah on Friday to improve its ranking, but Stanford is also now done until Pac-12s and could therefore still face a dramatic fall. If every team magically scores a season high this weekend while Stanford is idle, then the Cardinal would drop all the way down to 32nd and be squarely in the midst of having to do a play-in with only one meet remaining to change that fate.

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Arizona competed well over its two-meet weekend but fell victim to other teams dropping really low scores and zooming up, accounting for a pretty significant and somewhat unexpected ranking loss. The good news for Arizona is that the road scores can now go away, and it would take only 195.550 to go back ahead of Stanford. The bad news is that Maryland, Utah State, and Boise State all have higher peaks and could drop Arizona out of the top 28 if they all do well this weekend.

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Maryland had a pretty typical “one good, one bad” two-meet weekend (and, like Iowa, will do the same thing this coming weekend), enough to improve its qualifying score but not enough to help the ranking. Maryland currently sits in the final spot that would avoid the play-ins but has a good chance to move up to a safer position even just after Friday’s away meet by going 196 there.

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Utah State put up another strong home number against BYU over the weekend but fell in the rankings because two-meet teams like Iowa and Maryland moved up. USU will still like its chances to get up into the top 28 after this week, though, because that 195.1 road score looks so drop-worthy. The chance to move ahead of teams like Illinois and Arizona is realistic, so the goal score this week will be 196.400 to make sure that Utah State moves ahead of those two teams and into the top 28.

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Penn State lost a bunch of ground this week by not improving its scores in it home finale, but like the other teams in this section, will see the upcoming opportunity of dropping a low 195 as a ranking savior. But who drops it the best? PSU’s peak is not as high as those of the teams ranked above, so beyond getting a road 196, Penn State will be looking for some of those other teams not to perform up to their potential.

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It took a season high road score just for West Virginia to stay steady at 31st, but there are still problems a-brewin’ because unlike all the other teams, West Virginia is done with its road schedule and has only home meets remaining. That means WVU has to settle with those 195 road scores, providing very little room to move up this week. West Virginia is still going to be safe in the top 36 next Monday regardless of what happens, but getting out of the 29-36 zone by the end of the season is going to be tough.

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A high 195 was a solid home score for Michigan State, but the team nonetheless lost a bunch of ranking spots because those 195y road scores are still lurking around. Like West Virginia, MSU will stay in the top 36 this week regardless of what happens, but will also be strongly hoping for a 196.300, which would mean MSU’s moves ahead of Stanford and West Virginia to provide a little more breathing room. It’s 195.875 to move ahead of just West Virginia.

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Boise State only ended up moving up one spot despite its strong score over the weekend, but the buffer now created between BSU and the teams outside the top 36 is the truly significant part of that result. Those teams can’t catch Boise State this week, with the most likely scenario being that Boise State moves up a few more spots by dropping that 195.000.

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Another counting-fall meet saddled Ohio State with a 195 that hasn’t particularly helped things as the team continues falling closer and closer to the elimination zone. I said a few weeks ago that Ohio State would be safe as long as things don’t completely fall apart, but things have now fallen apart and Ohio State is officially not safe for the top 36. The very minimum goal score at the next meet will be a 195.500, which guarantees staying in the top 36 for another week, but Ohio State will be aiming for more than that to try to get to true safety and not have to freak out about Big Tens.

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Another 196 road performance got Pitt into the top 36 this weekend, with ample opportunity to move higher with another 194 to drop. Pitt will somewhat like its chances to clinch moving ahead of Ohio State by scoring 195.900 in its next meet, though it would take just 194.900 to stay in the top 36 for another week, which should pretty much be a given at this point.

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A weekend of important scores, particularly yesterday’s 195.825, saw GW rise into the top 36 for the time being. It’s a moment of hope, but because North Carolina and Northern Illinois both have higher peaks than George Washington after next week’s meets, GW doesn’t currently control its own top-36 destiny. Basically it’s about scoring as high as possible and then hoping.

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North Carolina did not get the score it was looking for over the weekend, but the 195.375 still represented enough of an improvement over the previous numbers to gain a ranking position. Unlike GW, North Carolina has a bit more control of its ranking future and will know that it is in the top 36 with one meet to go as long as the next score is 195.850 or greater. That’s the number to watch.

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A deflating beam miss saw CMU fall out of the top 36 and into the elimination zone this week, and things don’t get better from here. Central Michigan’s peak score after the next meet is lower than all of the team’s ranked above, so whether CMU has a chance at regionals is really just going to be about what those teams score over the next two meets.

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Northern Illinois did the job of getting into the conversation with a higher 195 on Friday, but the team was far back before that, so it really only started the conversation. Lots more to talk about. With a higher peak than CMU or GW, Northern Illinois would know it’s at least 37th if the next score is a season high, but that’s still just 37th. It’s going to take some teams like North Carolina and Pitt missing as well for NIU to get in there.

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Kent State is in the category of teams that are falling back and need some help but could still get to the top 36 if everything goes right. Kent State’s peak after this week is 195.500, and George Washington is currently sitting in 36th with a 195.420, so the opportunity still exists. Just with a lot of teams in the way.

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Two weeks of 195.0s have left New Hampshire in a dire position. Even with a season high in the next meet, UNH cannot move into the top 36 and knows it will be on the outside looking in with one meet to go. New Hampshire is in “season high and then season high and then hope” territory.

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Western Michigan did really well over the weekend to score a 196 at home, but those road scores are just looking a little too low to contend. With a higher peak than New Hampshire has after this weekend, however, there’s still a chance to move up a bit and see what happens. But it’s going to take a road score many tenths better than we’ve seen from WMU so far this season.

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Ball State is in a pretty rough position right now, but because the team has a two-meet weekend coming up, there is still a chance to get rid of all those 194s that are still hanging around. And if those 194s are all replaced with the kind of high 195s we’ve seen over the last two meets, Ball State would get into last-minute contention. Very last minute.

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Rutgers is far far back, and it’s almost definitely not going to happen, but the weekend’s 195.900 revealed a glimmer of hope if that kind of score can be repeated at both of the remaining meets.

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With two weeks of competition left, no one else has a realistic shot at the top 36 at this point. They’re too far back and would need a miracle.