Final NQS Scenarios

1. Oklahoma

Maximum NQS: 198.195
Possible ranking range: 1-2

Despite a non-counter over the weekend, Oklahoma stayed at #1 because no one else among the very top got a 198 either (whatttt?). Oklahoma is still looking for that 198.125 this week to break its old NQS record but will also be subject to what Florida does in terms of the final #1 ranking because Florida has the higher maximum NQS after conference championships.

2. Florida

Maximum NQS: 198.210
Possible ranking range: 1-3

Florida does have the higher maximum possible NQS than Oklahoma but would need 198.500 at the SEC Championship to guarantee it. Which, this year, you never know. But it’s a lot. Basically, Oklahoma is sitting in control right now, but if Florida goes crazy as SECs, a switch is possible. Florida also has a chance to break the old NQS record with a 198.150. Ensuring a spot in the top 2 and staying ahead of Michigan requires 197.950. 

3. Michigan

Maximum NQS: 198.080
Possible ranking range: 1-4

Theoretically, Michigan could tie Oklahoma, but that would require a season high at that 198.525 mark and a non-counter from Oklahoma, so it’s not the most likely. The possibility of catching Florida will also be majorly challenging—requiring 198.400 to even have a shot—so Michigan is probably just hoping to fend off Utah and stay in third.

4. Utah

Maximum NQS: 198.035
Possible ranking range: 3-6

Utah actually has a pretty wide range of possible rankings, spanning both the #1 seed and #2 seed ranges at regionals, but will be aiming for anything over 198 this week, which would be enough to clinch a #1 regionals seeding regardless of what anyone else does.

5. LSU

Maximum NQS: 197.920
Possible ranking range: 4-7

With Alabama idle and Auburn getting a non-counter, LSU took advantage of the opportunity and jumped up to 5th place. It would take a semi-hefty score to pass Utah for a spot in the top 4, but if LSU goes 197.9 and Utah doesn’t get a 198, it can happen. LSU and Auburn are pretty similar in terms of maximum NQS, but that maximum NQS would hinge on Auburn getting back to 198.5, so consider LSU in the driver’s seat in that regard.

6. Auburn

Maximum NQS: 197.915
Possible ranking range: 4-8

Auburn was not able to escape the tie with Alabama this week but retains the edge in the tiebreak and the higher maximum NQS after SECs. Still, it would take a 198.200 to absolutely clinch a spot ahead of Alabama in the final rankings, so the conference championship results will decide much in that regard.

6. Alabama

Maximum NQS: 197.840
Possible ranking range: 5-8

Of the teams in the top 7, Alabama has the lowest maximum so will be subject to what the others score this weekend. While it’s possible that Alabama could lose a spot in the top 7, it’s not likely and can be avoided completely with just a 197.400. There’s no chance at this point for Alabama to be dumped out of the top 8.

8. Minnesota

Maximum NQS: 197.700
Possible ranking range: 6-10

There’s an outside shot that Minnesota could challenge Auburn/Alabama this week, but it’s not super likely. Mostly, Minnesota should be content with a spot in the 8-9 zone and the 1-8-9-16 regional, which will take only 196.675 to ensure.

9. Kentucky

Maximum NQS: 197.440
Possible ranking range: 8-13

Kentucky and Cal look to be neck-and-neck as the most likely teams for that #9 spot right now, with Kentucky enjoying a slight advantage in maximum NQS, though it would take a 197.600 at SECs to clinch outright, so it will probably end up being a matter of margins on the day.

10. Cal

Maximum NQS: 197.425
Possible ranking range: 8-13

Kentucky’s score in the early session at SECs will determine whether Cal has a shot at a spot in the 8-9 regional with its performance at the late session at Pac-12s, but Cal will aim for a 197.575 regardless, which would ensure that no other team can pass for a spot in the top 10. 

11. Missouri

Maximum NQS: 197.355
Possible ranking range: 9-13

Missouri also does have an outside shot at the 8-9 but is very dependent on what Kentucky and Cal do in that regard. One consideration for Missouri is that, in the current setup, they would be faced with traveling to Auburn as the #3 seed in the Michigan/Auburn regional group, which is a terrible setup for any upset hopes. So Missouri might not even mind dropping a spot if the top 8 stays the same. 

12. Michigan State

Maximum NQS: 197.270
Possible ranking range: 9-15

Michigan State is no longer in danger of getting dropped out of the seeded positions, so while there’s still quite a range of possible results and regionals placements that will be just as dependent on other teams as on MSU, getting a score from the conference championship is not the most urgent.

13. Oregon State

Maximum NQS: 197.180
Possible ranking range: 12-16

Like Michigan State, Oregon State has done just enough to secure a spot in the top 16 already so is not facing the pressure of other teams at conference championships looking for a score in order to get to a specific tier.

14. Arizona State

Maximum NQS: 197.130
Possible ranking range: 12-20

Arizona State is still in some danger of getting bumped out of the seeded positions, especially with UCLA lurking, so will be eager to get 197.325 at Pac-12s to clinch a seeded position, though in reality it probably won’t take quite as much as that. 

15. Denver

Maximum NQS: 197.030
Possible ranking range: 14-20

Denver currently sits in 15th, so would have to be dislodged by others to lose out on a seeding, but both UCLA and Ohio State do have higher maximum NQSs, so Denver may be at the mercy of others if Ohio State puts up another big score.

16. Ohio State

Maximum NQS: 197.055
Possible ranking range: 13-20

Ohio State’s peak is higher than Denver’s but only slightly, so it would take a significant result of 197.425 at Big Tens for Ohio State to secure a seeded position outright.

17. Arkansas

Maximum NQS: 196.965
Possible ranking range: 14-20

Arkansas is another team that could get into the seeded positions but will have to wait to see what everyone else scores to know if there’s a chance. Otherwise, Arkansas would be an unseeded geographically placed team in the Oklahoma regional, which right now would mean a regional semifinal with Minnesota and Kentucky.

18. UCLA

Maximum NQS: 197.310
Possible ranking range: 9-20

UCLA is the team that’s making everything so ambiguous because this range of possible outcomes is so massive. We’re just going to have to wait and see what the score is like because UCLA could end up anywhere from a high #3 seed to outside of the seeded positions altogether depending on how Pac-12s goes. At minimum, UCLA will be looking for 196.675, which would be enough to clinch a spot in the top 16. 

19. Illinois

Maximum NQS: 196.970
Possible ranking range: 14-21

Both Illinois and Maryland have done enough to get themselves in position to maybe-could-iffy-maybe have a shot at a seeded position, but a lot of moving pieces would have to move a very specific direction all at the same time. 

20. Maryland

Maximum NQS: 196.910
Possible ranking range: 14-23

21. BYU

Maximum NQS: 196.785
Possible ranking range: 19-25

The teams from #21 BYU through #28 NC State cannot get into the seeded positions but are also already locked for regionals. Some may still get dropped into the play-in meets depending on how things go, but they’re safe for qualification.

22. Georgia

Maximum NQS: 196.770
Possible ranking range: 20-27

23. Iowa

Maximum NQS: 196.585
Possible ranking range: 22-30

24. Boise State

Maximum NQS: 196.650
Possible ranking range: 21-30

25. Utah State

Maximum NQS: 196.550
Possible ranking range: 23-30

26. Iowa State

Maximum NQS: 196.560
Possible ranking range: 23-30

27. Stanford

Maximum NQS: 196.610
Possible ranking range: 22-30

28. NC State

Maximum NQS: 196.525
Possible ranking range: 23-34

29. Washington

Maximum NQS: 196.725

Washington is the top team that isn’t fully locked for a spot at regionals because 196.305 is the NQS of absolute safety (not a surprise based on the score trends from early in the season). So while Washington isn’t technically assured a spot at regionals yet, it would take only 195.175 at Pac-12s to clinch it and even that probably isn’t required because it would be unlikely for enough teams to get huge enough scores on the same day to push Washington all the way out of the top 36. Because of that high maximum, getting out of the play-ins is also still on the table for Washington given a strong result on Saturday. 

30. Towson

Maximum NQS: 196.390

Getting an absolutely safe score is more of a challenge for Towson as it would require a conference championship total of 196.275 to clinch, but again there are enough teams between Towson and the drop zone that a huge bunch of them would all have to go out of their minds to bump Towson out. So it’s still a pretty good position.

31. Southern Utah

Maximum NQS: 196.635

Southern Utah has been waiting all season to get rid of that 195.000 road score from the very first meet, and the conference championship provides the last opportunity to do it. Like Washington, Southern Utah isn’t absolutely safe but is in a very good spot because it requires only 195.350 on Saturday to clinch, which is deeply doable even with mistakes.  

32. Arizona

Maximum NQS: 196.395

Arizona did the job in its two-meet week to get into one of the better positions among the bubble teams heading into the conference championships, though it would still take 196.400 at Pac-12s to make it a done deal, which is well within the realm of realistic but definitely not a given. But as long as Arizona gets close to that mark, it shouldn’t take too much help. 

33. North Carolina

Maximum NQS: 196.410

North Carolina is another team that did the job in the critical moment over the weekend with another 196 to sit in a semi-comfortable spot, with a higher peak after this week than both #32 Arizona and #30 Towson. UNC will now need a 196.100 at the conference championship to clinch.

34. West Virginia

Maximum NQS: 196.315

West Virginia is still sitting in a precarious position, able to clinch on Saturday but needing basically a season high to do it with a goal score of 196.525. Still, you’d rather be West Virginia than the teams ranked below, and since WVU competes after all the other questionable teams, we’ll know exactly what needs to happen (if anything) by the time Big 12s starts. 

35. San Jose State

Maximum NQS: 196.300

It was a tough week for SJSU, with a non-counting 195.400 dropping the team into the danger zone. San Jose still sits in the top 36 in a regionals position, so if everyone has a meh day at their conference championships, San Jose would advance, but with a maximum NQS below the safe zone, San Jose cannot control its own destiny on Saturday and will be reliant on at least one team not getting the job done. 

36. Western Michigan

Maximum NQS: 196.345

With a couple big scores lately, Western Michigan has improved its maximum NQS and now has a shot at safety at the conference championship, though it would take 196.525 to clinch, so the most likely story has Western Michigan playing Scoreboard Watch all day.

37. Penn State

Maximum NQS: 196.275

Penn State is currently in a tough spot, outside the top 36 and with a maximum NQS below the clinch score, meaning Penn State both has to get a strong score on Saturday AND hope that others miss. Penn State must score at minimum 195.925 to have any shot (anything below that is an automatic elimination), and then spend the rest of the day yelling “FALL FALL FALL.”  

38. Kent State

Maximum NQS: 196.315

With that gigantic final meet score, Kent State technically could clinch on Saturday, but with a score of 196.800 required to do so, it doesn’t seem the most likely. Kent State has to hit at least 196.025 to stay alive at all, so then anything in the 196.025-196.775 range will mean Kent State is in limbo, depending on what others do. 

40. Central Michigan

Maximum NQS: 196.215

A meet of falls over the weekend shifted Central Michigan from the role of spoiler to the role of outsider, the last team with even a vague shot at regionals. Central Michigan has the lowest maximum of any of the teams still alive, so CMU’s hopes are mostly about others missing. To stay in contention at all, Central Michigan will need to go 196.325 on Saturday.