| Rk | Chg | Team | NQS | This Week |
| 1 | = | Oklahoma | 198.040 | 198.475 |
| 2 | = | LSU | 198.005 | 198.200 |
| 3 | = | Florida | 197.860 | 198.625 |
| 4 | +1 | Utah | 197.670 | 198.100 |
| 5 | -1 | UCLA | 197.600 | 197.425 |
| 6 | = | Cal | 197.515 | 197.750/ 197.675 |
| 7 | = | Missouri | 197.470 | 197.800 |
| 8 | +2 | Kentucky | 197.315 | 197.725 |
| 9 | -1 | Michigan State | 197.290 | 197.375 |
| 10 | -1 | Georgia | 197.210 | 197.975 |
| 11 | = | Oregon State | 197.175 | 197.700 |
| 12 | +2 | Auburn | 197.170 | 197.550 |
| 13 | -1 | Alabama | 197.160 | 197.050 |
| 14 | -1 | Stanford | 197.105 | 197.175/ 196.975 |
| 15 | = | Minnesota | 197.095 | 197.150 |
| 16 | = | Arkansas | 197.055 | 197.225 |
| 17 | = | Michigan | 196.860 | 196.675 |
| 18 | = | Denver | 196.735 | 196.475 |
| 19 | = | NC State | 196.650 | 196.675 |
| 20 | = | Nebraska | 196.535 | 196.450 |
| 21 | = | Arizona | 196.415 | 196.400 |
| 22 | +1 | Ohio State | 196.395 | 196.875 |
| 23 | -1 | Southern Utah | 196.315 | 196.125 |
| 24 | +2 | Arizona State | 196.310 | 196.800/ 196.250 |
| 25 | -1 | North Carolina | 196.275 | 196.750 |
Bold scores must be included as part of the six and can no longer be dropped.
The Race for #1
1. Oklahoma – 198.040
| Road score 1 | 198.475 |
| Road score 2 | 198.050 |
| Road score 3 | 197.950 |
| Home/road score 1 | 198.200 |
| Home/road score 2 | 198.075 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.925 |
| NQS: | 198.040 |
2. LSU – 198.005
| Road score 1 | 198.200 |
| Road score 2 | 198.125 |
| Road score 3 | 197.650 |
| Home/road score 1 | 198.575 |
| Home/road score 2 | 198.050 |
| Home/road score 3 | 198.000 |
| NQS: | 198.005 |
3. Florida – 197.860
| Road score 1 | 198.025 |
| Road score 2 | 197.575 |
| Road score 3 | 197.450 |
| Home/road score 1 | 198.625 |
| Home/road score 2 | 198.125 |
| Home/road score 3 | 198.125 |
| NQS: | 197.860 |
Oklahoma survived LSU’s assault on the #1 ranking in week 11 but will have to do so yet again at the conference championships to secure another season-end #1, with the added twist of Florida this time as well. Let’s get into it.
LSU has the highest maximum possible NQS after this week and can clinch #1 with a 198.400. On the flip side, anything less than 197.825 for LSU, and Oklahoma stays in front. Anything in between 197.825 and 198.400 for LSU, and we’re looking at margins and how well Oklahoma scores.
As for Florida, the Gators would have to go at least 198.350 at SECs to even have a shot at #1, but it is theoretically possible for them to pass both Oklahoma and LSU. LSU will ensure fending off Florida with 198.125, and Oklahoma with 198.225, though it will probably take less than that unless Florida gets, you know, another 198.6.
These three are set as the top three teams and cannot be caught by anyone else.
4. Utah – 197.670
| Road score 1 | 197.950 |
| Road score 2 | 197.425 |
| Road score 3 | 197.225 |
| Home/road score 1 | 198.100 |
| Home/road score 2 | 198.075 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.675 |
| NQS: | 197.670 |
Utah moved up to #4 this week with the win over UCLA and is probbbbbably set with the final #4 ranking, needing just 197.300 at their “road” conference championship to turn that probably into a definitely. Either way, we know for sure Utah will be the host team of the 4-5 regional.
5. UCLA – 197.600
| Road score 1 | 197.950 |
| Road score 2 | 197.550 |
| Road score 3 | 197.550 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.675 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.675 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.550 |
| NQS: | 197.600 |
UCLA can ensure joining Utah in the 4-5 regional with 197.825 or better at Big Tens. It’s a worthwhile goal since getting into the Utah regional would mean they can’t be placed into the Alabama regional that all the top-8 teams are trying to avoid.
Missouri and Cal both have higher maximum NQSs this week than UCLA’s current 197.600, so there is also some danger of getting dropped into a less comfortable regional.
6. Cal – 197.515
| Road score 1 | 197.675 |
| Road score 2 | 197.275 |
| Road score 3 | 197.200 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.775 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.750 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.675 |
| NQS: | 197.515 |
7. Missouri – 197.470
| Road score 1 | 197.800 |
| Road score 2 | 197.725 |
| Road score 3 | 197.200 |
| Home/road score 1 | 198.100 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.425 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.200 |
| NQS: | 197.470 |
Missouri and Cal both have 197.200s to drop and fairly similar maximums (Missouri slightly higher because of a bigger season best), so that should be a close one. Both are locked as #2 regional seeds, so it’s mostly a waiting game to see which draw of #3 and #4 seeds ends up being better.
8. Kentucky – 197.315
| Road score 1 | 197.725 |
| Road score 2 | 197.225 |
| Road score 3 | 197.150 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.925 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.300 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.175 |
| NQS: | 197.315 |
Kentucky made a nice jump into the top 8 over the weekend and can secure this spot with a 197.500 at SECs. The 8-9 teams both go to the same regional (looking like the Penn State regional), but there could be something to be said for being the team that’s seeded to advance alongside #1 rather than being the challenger.
9. Michigan State – 197.290
| Road score 1 | 197.200 |
| Road score 2 | 197.150 |
| Road score 3 | 197.150 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.500 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.475 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.475 |
| NQS: | 197.290 |
Michigan State needs at least 197.300 at Big Tens to have a shot at getting back into the top 8 (if Kentucky doesn’t get a score), but this is a very closely bunched section of teams with the potential for some major rearranging at conference championships. Anywhere from 8-12 is a possible finish for MSU since Georgia, Auburn, and Alabama all have a chance to pass.
10. Georgia – 197.210
| Road score 1 | 197.350 |
| Road score 2 | 197.200 |
| Road score 3 | 197.175 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.975 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.200 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.125 |
| NQS: | 197.210 |
Georgia now enjoys a maximum potential NQS of 197.380 after SECs, the highest of the teams currently sitting outside the top 8—and could catch Kentucky for 8, though it would take a 197.7 and some help. Georgia could end up anywhere from 8th to 13th.
11. Oregon State – 197.175
| Road score 1 | 197.025 |
| Road score 2 | 196.975 |
| Road score 3 | 196.950 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.700 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.600 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.325 |
| NQS: | 197.175 |
With a dual meet against Fisk now scheduled for Friday, Oregon State does get a meet during the final opportunity to change NQS. Though since it’s a home meet, there’s not too much room for change, and Oregon State can’t place any higher than 10th—and is also subject to what #12 Auburn and #13 Alabama do, since they have higher maximums.
12. Auburn – 197.170
| Road score 1 | 197.750 |
| Road score 2 | 197.150 |
| Road score 3 | 196.825 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.550 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.300 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.025 |
| NQS: | 197.170 |
Auburn and Alabama both have road 196s to drop, so if the judges are willing to go to town during the early session of SECs, both teams have a real shot to move up, Auburn even as high as 8th. That would take a lot of teams above them not hitting their goal scores, but it is possible.
13. Alabama – 197.160
| Road score 1 | 197.650 |
| Road score 2 | 197.050 |
| Road score 3 | 196.875 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.450 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.350 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.075 |
| NQS: | 197.160 |
Which #2 seed has to go to the Alabama regional and risk getting upset by a famous home team is the major storyline of the final rankings and ultimate regional draw. Sadly, the current situation offers really no insight whatsoever. With a range of possible finishes from 9th to 15th, Alabama could end up hosting any regional with any collection of seeds, except the Utah one.
14. Stanford – 197.105
| Road score 1 | 197.400 |
| Road score 2 | 197.100 |
| Road score 3 | 196.975 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.250 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.175 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.025 |
| NQS: | 197.105 |
15. Minnesota – 197.095
| Road score 1 | 197.375 |
| Road score 2 | 197.325 |
| Road score 3 | 196.800 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.150 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.125 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.075 |
| NQS: | 197.095 |
Stanford and Minnesota could both also still make a move into the realm of #3 seeds (9-12 ranked teams), but with lower maximums than the teams ranked in the top 13, they’re very much subject to what everyone else scores. They are both guaranteed to finish no worse than 15th.
16. Arkansas – 197.055
| Road score 1 | 197.725 |
| Road score 2 | 197.050 |
| Road score 3 | 196.400 |
| Home/road score 1 | 197.425 |
| Home/road score 2 | 197.175 |
| Home/road score 3 | 197.000 |
| NQS: | 197.055 |
Unable to compete at SECs, Arkansas is locked at this NQS but is lucky that none of the teams ranked #17+ are able to pass, so a seeded position is assured.
Using the seeding formula, the teams currently shake out like this:
–[1] Oklahoma, [8] Kentucky, [9] Michigan State, [16] Arkansas
–[2] LSU, [7] Missouri, [10] Georgia, [15] Minnesota
–[3] Florida, [6] Cal, [11] Oregon State, [14] Stanford
–[4] Utah, [5] UCLA, [12] Auburn, [13] Alabama
Of course, we would have a host conflict with our only two seeded hosts (Utah and Alabama) going into the same regional. In this case, the lower-seeded host is the one that gets moved—and moved as few spots as possible. Since promoting Alabama from 13 to 12 wouldn’t resolve the conflict, Alabama would be demoted from 13 to 14 and would host the Florida-Cal regional, while Stanford would be “upgraded” (?) into the Utah-UCLA regional.
–[1] Oklahoma, [8] Kentucky, [9] Michigan State, [16] Arkansas
–[2] LSU, [7] Missouri, [10] Georgia, [15] Minnesota
–[3] Florida, [6] Cal, [11] Oregon State, [13] Alabama
–[4] Utah, [5] UCLA, [12] Auburn, [14] Stanford
All of the teams currently ranked #17-#33 are locked for regionals as geographically placed teams and cannot be seeded or bumped out at this point. So we’ll just skim that part.
17. Michigan
18. Denver
19. NC State
20. Nebraska
21. Arizona
22. Ohio State
23. Southern Utah
24. Arizona State
25. North Carolina
26. Clemson
27. Penn State
28. Iowa
29. Boise State
30. Maryland
31. Illinois
32. Utah State
33. BYU
In theory, the teams ranked in the top 28 should avoid the play-in meets and the eight teams ranked 29-36 should go into them, but sometimes horrible geographical placement rules supersede that and ruin everything. For instance this year, Boise State, Utah State and BYU would all go to the Utah regional because of their proximity, which if these rankings held, would see #29 Boise State avoid a play-in, with a higher-ranked team (#28 Iowa) getting dumped into a play-in somewhere else instead.
And now the messiest part because there are theoretically 12 teams still alive in the race for the final three regionals places. Here are their current NQSs and maximums after this week.
34. West Virginia – 195.855 – maximum 196.015
35. Towson – 195.820 – maximum 195.980
36. Central Michigan – 195.665 – maximum 195.765
37. Iowa State – 195.660 – maximum 195.805
38. UC Davis – 195.645 – maximum 195.870
39. Washington – 195.630 – maximum 195.770
40. Rutgers – 196.625 – maximum 195.955
41. George Washington – 195.555 – maximum 195.795
42. Illinois State – 195.545 – maximum 195.735
43. Kent State – 195.510 – maximum 195.750
43. Pitt – 195.510 – maximum 195.800
45. Ball State – 195.455 – maximum 195.835
West Virginia and Towson are in control of the situation. West Virginia clinches regionals with 195.575 and Towson does so with 195.875. Not guaranteed by any means, but those are the primary scores to keep an eye on in assessing whether other teams have a shot.
The final spot, currently occupied by Central Michigan is where things get really wild because there are a full seven teams with higher maximum NQSs than CMU currently has, which means this thing could go any which way.
We’ll have some information on Friday night since Rutgers and Washington both compete in the Friday session of Big Tens. Rutgers has the highest maximum of the challenging teams, so if Rutgers can find a way to manage a 196.125, then one of the regionals spots belongs to Rutgers (for the first time in over a decade), and things get a lot simpler on Saturday. If Rutgers can’t get past Central Michigan on Friday, then attention turns to UC Davis as the team with the next-highest maximum NQS. And so on until we find out who makes regionals.