#7 Nebraska Preview

Last January I made the comment that Nebraska’s ability to survive on what was essentially a team of six gymnasts was both impressive and unsustainable. In practice, the Huskers managed to sustain relative equilibrium in that position much longer than I expected, right up until a postseason injury to Jamie Schleppenbach pulled down the veil and exposed the lack of depth. The Huskers ultimately finished short of another Super Six berth, landing fifth in their Semifinal.

Only Lora Evenstad has graduated from the gang of six that sustained Nebraska though 2012. Expect the big four of Jessie DeZiel, Janelle Giblin, Emily Wong, and Schleppenbach to once again feature in the all-around and lead the scoring with three strong numbers on each event. A Super Six team, however, cannot survive on just four gymnasts, and it is difficult to see Nebraska replicating even the eighth-place finish from last year without developing 5th and 6th routines on each event and cultivating usable backups that are not simply throwaway 9.800s.

Fortunately for the Huskers, their depth will increase in 2013 with four new gymnasts coming in compared to the loss of just one. I expect Hollie Blanske, Ariel Martin, and Jordyn Beck all to see at least some competition time this season to give the team a solid base of eight gymnasts from which to choose. It’s not an ideal level of depth, but it is an improvement. These new gymnasts will not necessarily have to be stars because there will be enough 9.9 potential at the back of the lineups, but as Nebraska knows well, every 9.7 erases a 9.9. The freshmen need to prove capable of popping up on multiple events and delivering the kind of 9.850s that depth is made of to be useful in competition.

Vault:

This event is by far the healthiest for Nebraska. While they are probably just a tad short of what the big three teams will bring in, DeZiel, Schleppenbach, Wong, and Giblin are all excellent here and should keep the scores quite high. The lowest RQS for any of them last year was 9.885, which will put the team in the fortunate position of finding even multiple 9.875s disappointing.

In 2012, those four dictated the scoring because Evenstad and Brittany Skinner (and occasionally Jennifer Lauer) were very 9.800. At Championships, Wong and Schleppenbach both vaulted poorly, which killed the rotation. This year, there should be a little bit more backup with Ariel Martin, who is dominant on the power events and has a very clean Yfull, and Hollie Blanske, who has competed a Yurchenko 1.5 in the past. By the postseason, this should be a legitimate 49.450-49.500 rotation.

Bars:

Without Evenstad, the bars rotation is all about Giblin. She’s a dream here, and Wong and DeZiel are both certainly 9.875 capable, but there is much less room for error. On this event, the dynamic end-of-lineup routines are there, but the depth must improve to make up for the lack of Lora Evenstad and the average routines that look to populate the beginning of the lineup.

I expect Schleppenbach and probably Skinner to make the lineup again, but those routines are not going to be priceless. Blanske is solid here and comes i in with better form than most of the other freshmen around the country. This event could be a little rough on some days, but Giblin, Wong, and DeZiel will help keep it over 49.

Beam:

Speaking of rough, Nebraska on beam. It’s been a struggle these last few years, a cavalcade of falls and 9.7s that continue to make a 49.000 seem like a blessing. There is not a ton of great happening in this rotation. Wong is by far the best one, and her ability to get a 9.9 makes her potentially the strongest all-arounder on the team, which was borne out at the Big 10 Championships. We all also remember the time that DeZiel showed a wobbleburger of a US team how beam is done at Pan Ams, and I’m sure she will show Nebraska how it’s done a few times in 2013 as well.

After that, tumbleweeds. Giblin, Schleppenbach, and Skinner all can do beam routines in the same way that I can shoot a basketball. It doesn’t mean I should. Jennifer Lauer seemed like a reliable 9.800 at the end of last season, so she may be somewhat helpful here, but mostly keep an eye on Jordyn Beck. Beam is my favorite event of hers. She has more precision than the other freshmen and can contribute here.

Floor:

Floor is the other event where the loss of Evenstad will be a real blow, but I like the routines from DeZiel, Wong, and Giblin enough to feel secure in the lack of real catastrophe. They’ll be good for 9.850-9.900s to keep the rotation safely positive.  

There should be options for the remaining spots. In addition to Schleppenbach and Skinner, Ariel Martin has a DLO (the second salto is a little piked, but the power is there), and Blanske competes a tuck full and a 2.5, so there will be some usable options among the new ones as well. Expect some good 49.300s here but nothing that sets anyone on fire.

Outlook:
Even though the team lost a major contributor, the freshmen should be able to combine to make up for the loss of tenths. The increased depth will help avoid problems should anyone go down, but I’m skeptical as to whether the Huskers can improve on the overall quality of last season’s team. Nonetheless, it’s still going to be a 197-capable group. They should have no trouble making Nationals and on a good day can make Super Six. The eternal beam concerns make it less likely that the good day will happen when it needs to, but it is well within the realm of possibility.

Watch the top four. If they are consistently getting those 39.550s and higher in the AA, this team will be successful and can carry that through to Nationals. If, however, they are throwing in wonky beam performances and 9.825s too often this season, then Nebraska won’t be able to make it up with other gymnasts and will wallow in the mid 196s. 

Advertisements

Vault Finals

The full minutes from this summer’s committee report are available here, but I wanted to solicit some thoughts on the most interesting recommendation.

b. Vault Finals.
(1) Recommendation. That student-athletes qualifying for the event finals on vault be required to perform one vault with the score determined by averaging all six scores rather than performing two different vaults and the average of the averages of each vault calculated as the final score.

(2) Effective Date. September 1, 2012.

(3) Rationale. Requiring student-athletes to perform a different second vault that they do not train for nor compete the entire year creates an environment that is unsafe for the competitors, lengthens the competition and confuses the general gymnastics fan.

(4) Impact on Budget. None.

(5) Student-Athlete Impact. Positive since the vast majority of student-athletes train one vault all season. This change may potentially lessen the possibility of injuries

What are your thoughts?

To me, this is a better solution than what we have now, but it still is not ideal. The gymnasts who are competent with two different vaults should be able to show that. We need a way to separate those gymnasts from the others so that people with only one vault are not qualifying to finals.

Also included is the new language about floor vocals:
“Vocals will be permitted without deduction when voice is used as an instrument without words. Music with whistles/animal sounds also is permitted. Absence of music or music with speech will receive a 1.00 deduction taken by the chief judge.”
Phew. Good thing whistles and animal sounds are allowed.

The Peszek and Nowak Effects

Far too fresh on the heels of Kayla Nowak’s harrowing, season-ending back injury comes the news that Sam Peszek has torn her Achilles tendon and will miss the 2013 season. We always start the preseason with such optimism for the season ahead, and then it gets chipped away with injuries like these.

Unfortunately for the Sooners, they are now accustomed to getting by without Kayla Nowak, having lost her to injury at the end of last season as well. Nowak is capable of being a solid AAer who goes over 9.800 on each event, but she will be particularly missed on bars and floor, where she would be a guarantee for the late lineup. On floor, Oklahoma has been fighting to prove that it is more than just a 9.850 team, and Nowak was a major part of that argument because her routine could regularly warrant a higher score. I have no doubt that Oklahoma can find the routines necessary, but the trend of injuries over the last couple of seasons has slowed the Sooners’ progress toward extracting themselves from that second tier of teams.

Speaking of a trend of injuries, UCLA. Sam Peszek makes the fourth member of this team to tear her Achilles in the last couple of seasons, following Zamarripa, Wong, and McDonald. Like Oklahoma, UCLA will not completely fall apart because of this loss, but it will be significant not just because Peszek is a high-scoring AAer but because she brings a solidity that none of the other stars of this team can manage at the moment. While the team will potentially lose .050-.075 in scoring potential on each event without Peszek, it is beam where the loss will be the most painful. Zamarripa and Larson at the end of this lineup don’t exactly inspire the confidence of 6 for 6 every week, and they are the strongest workers. Overall, expect to see a lot more of Syd Sawa than we otherwise would have.

#8 LSU Preview

It’s been a few years since LSU was a legitimate upset threat in the SEC, and while the Tigers can’t claim to challenge Florida or Alabama this season, I would not be remotely surprised to see them finish third at SECs. They were close to that accomplishment last year, and they will be oodles better this season, bolstering their strengths and doing at least a little patching up on their weaknesses. From being a complete afterthought in 2011, this is a team on the rise once again.

Like Michigan, LSU is in the enviable position of not losing much. They will miss Ashley Lee’s vault and floor, but the new gymnasts will more than make up for it in terms of scoring potential.

Britney Ranzy is finally eligible to start competing again, and while it’s always a bit of a question mark as to what’s happening with her, we know she can hit vault and floor for 9.9s when in form. Canadian world team member in 2010 Jessica Savona missed significant time in 2011-2012 with injury, but she too is a standout on the power events who should be a late-lineup contributor. These two will support Courville and Hall to pack some serious tumbling talent into those lineups.

The perennial concern for LSU is how they will manage bars and beam, which are not nearly up to the level of vault and floor, but Randi Wyrick has the potential to be an important addition who can compete right away on those events (and on all the events, but UB and BB will be her most important routines for the team).

Vault:

Talent-wise, LSU is way better on vault than they have shown in the past year or so. This group should not be settling for low 49s. The increased depth on this event in 2013 should ensure that some of those random 9.700-9.750s that showed up too often last season won’t make the lineup.

Courville and Ranzy should camp out in the 5th and 6th positions and bring in frequent 9.9s. Savona showed a DTY as an elite, and while she shouldn’t do anything more than a full in NCAA, she has enough lift to make it a strong one. The early part of the lineup carries more uncertainty, but I do think that Hall, Jordan, and potentially Mathis should retain positions in the lineup if they can show that 9.875s are common (all of them have the ability). If necessary, Dickson, Morrison, and Lau are also sitting on potential 9.8s that give the team enough wiggle room to expect to go over 49.300 week in week out even if a few struggle with consistent landings.

Bars:

To be a legitimate threat, though, LSU must improve on bars. In 2012, this rotation had two routines and then four other people thrown in to make up the numbers. Courville and Morrison are very good, but they are usually 9.875 good, not 9.950 good. They are not strong enough on their own to help the team withstand a parade of 9.7s leading up to their routines. Jordan, Hall, and Lau are probably the best of the rest, but I wouldn’t be comfortable with any of the lineup positions after the best two.

Wyrick has a strong line and toe point which make her bars routine, even though it’s not perfect, prime for development into a 9.9 routine. They’ll certainly need it because the rest of the new gymnasts aren’t bars girls, and without at least three strong routines, this lineup will frequently languish under 49.

Beam:

Too many mistakes was the theme for LSU on beam in 2012. In most meets, the team was fighting against a fall or a 9.600 from the first half of the lineup without the strength to withstand it. Jordan and Courville are probably the best of the group, but there is no one exceptionally impressive who will always bring in those 9.9s. This will be a lineup that, on a good, consistent day, will be able to run the table with 9.850s to get an adequately positive score but will still be a nail-biter the whole way. 

Wyrick’s line, flexibility, and dance elements should, with a little bit of refinement, make her not only a high scorer but a stylistic standout from most of the rest of the lineup. Otherwise I expect the core group of Jordan, Courville, Dickson, Hall, and Lau/Garcia/Prunty to remain the same.

Floor:

Like vault, floor was so close to being great last season. It was a lineup of four strong routines that would be punched in the gut by having to count some 9.650s from the first two spots. I expect Hall, Courville, Jordan, and maybe Dickson/Mathis to return to the lineup and excel, and fortunately for LSU, Ranzy and Savona should be plugged into those remaining two spots to prevent LSU having to be okay with any low scores.

With this lineup, expect the Tigers to score consistently .200–.250 higher on floor than they did last season. When the 3rd or 4th up one year suddenly becomes the leadoff the next year, the chances for score escalation are huge. Now, we just need to get Lloimincia Hall to tone it down about 27% percent and return to the believably energetic category so that her routine can make floor finals.

Outlook:
LSU’s path to 197 this season will be about staying even on bars, getting a few 9.850s to go slightly + on beam, and then throwing together some 49.4s on vault and floor. The Tigers can absolutely improve on bars and beam from where they were last year, but this is still not a four-event team, which is still a concern and will keep them from challenging nationally. Nonetheless, this is easily the most potential we’ve seen from an LSU team since the Ashleigh Clare-Kearney/Susan Jackson show.

Last year, this team was overmatched by the 197s from so many other teams at Nationals, and while I would not predict a Super Six showing this year, I don’t think the team will be overmatched at Nationals.

#9 Oregon State Preview

I smell trouble in 9.9-land for Oregon State. At Regionals and Championships combined last season, Oregon State recorded five scores of 9.900 or greater (which is already too few), and four of those scores came from Leslie Mak and Olivia Vivian.

Without Mak and Vivian in 2013, the Beavers’ world will be thrust onto the shoulders of seniors Melanie Jones and Makayla Stambaugh. Both of them can compete the AA if required, as they were last season, but they are not all-around stars. Jones will lead on beam and floor, and Stambaugh will excel on bars and floor, but the other routines are going to be in the lower-9.8 territory. Jones and Stambaugh will both post a flurry of strong scores, but their contributions alone will not be enough to carry the weight of the team.

The safety nets for OSU may be the transfer of Hailey Gaspar and the return of Stephanie McGregor. Neither is going to light the world on fire with scores, but Gaspar in particular may be the only thing standing between the vault lineup and certain peril. These gymnasts will be particularly necessary because of the current recruiting situation. Not only are the Beavers not bringing in American or international elites, they are not getting the best L10 athletes either. Each of the five incoming gymnasts is a perfectly serviceable JO performer who can compete in NCAA, but there is no one who looks primed to take over any kind of scoring responsibility. Tanya needs to get those Canadian and Australian pipelines up and running again.

Vault:

Amplitude, distance, and dynamics. The Beavers are not a bad vaulting team, but when they compete against the powerful teams, their vaults look utterly flat by comparison. There is an awful lot of piking down. The team isn’t losing a ton of scoring potential on this event, but is it gaining that much?

Kelsi Blalock and Hailey Gaspar are the most 9.9-capable, and we can probably expect some 9.850s from Stambaugh and Brittany Harris, but this lineup is going to have difficulty breaking out of that 49.2 range. Jones and Chelsea Tang probably shouldn’t be competing under deeper circumstances, but they may be required to throw in their 9.775s. The former Texas Dreams/Metroplex gymnast Nicole Turner used to compete an Omelianchik, so that could be a helpful addition if she’s in the mix.

Bars:

Bars is the event where the losses of Mak and Vivian really aren’t fair. It’s similar in degree to the loss that Georgia has to absorb without Ding and Nuccio, but Oregon State doesn’t have Brandie Jay and Brittany Rogers coming in to soften the blow.

Stambaugh will anchor the event with her delightful routine, and Harris is always good for a 9.850, and then there’s, well, a lot of 9.8s from Jones, McGregor, Hannah Casey, and probably a couple of the freshmen, though they tend to be a bit more of a floor group. Still, this is the event where I see the most room for development for them. Routines can potentially be created, but once again, they won’t be able to become Mak and Vivian all of a sudden.

Beam:

The most memorable feature of Leslie Mak’s gymnastics career was how many times she saved this team on beam, most notably at Regionals last year when her 9.925 sent the Beavers to Championships. Without that routine, consistency becomes a much greater concern. I’m not as worried about the actual quality of the late-lineup routines (there should be enough 9.850s to be getting on with at least) as the tendency last season to shove people onto the beam who shouldn’t be there because of lack of depth. Stambaugh is a great gymnast, but she is not a beamer.

Some of the freshmen and sophomores must emerge and must show they can deliver 9.8s every week. They don’t have to be amazing, but they do have to stay on the beam. 

Floor:

Floor is the event where I am the least concerned about Oregon State’s chances. Jones and Stambaugh should be 5th and 6th in the lineup with their 9.9 routines, and they are desirable anchors. Jones turned a lot of heads in the floor final last year, and that should help her scoring potential. Judges will be more willing to go 9.950 now.

Gaspar, Blalock, and Harris can all compete their routines somewhere in the 9.8 territory. Nicole Turner has competed a double Arabian in the past, and Sarah Marquez can be very precise in her landings, so potentially look to see her here. Consistency will remain a concern here (though Vivian was probably the biggest concern on that front), but if they hit routines, this is the event that will most frequently go toward the 49.300s. 
 
Outlook:
Frankly, it’s a little gloomy. That is not to say that this team can’t 9.850 itself all the way to 197s. It absolutely can because with all the gymnasts coming in, there should be no shortage of routines. In fact, I don’t expect the ranking to be particularly low throughout the course of the season (something in the back end of the top 10 earned through frequent 196.500s).

The biggest problem is that this team is emerging as almost a stereotypical Regionals upset. Their success during the season will come from 9.850ing opponents to death, so unlike some of the teams that can count a fall at Regionals and rest on the strength of other 9.9s in order to stay ahead of a #15 seed for the second spot, Oregon State won’t be able to count a fall at Regionals and stay ahead of a 3rd seed. Combine that with serious questions about the beam lineup, and let’s just say it wouldn’t be a surprise.

#10 Michigan Preview

Michigan’s 2012 season was the reason analgesic phrases like “rebuilding year” were invented. The team was so depleted that it often struggled to scrape together six routines worthy of competition on each event. It’s a credit to the Wolverines that they were able to get as close to Nationals as they did, falling just .125 behind Oregon State for the second spot out of the Auburn Regional. Looking at the rosters for those two teams this year, I would expect the results to flip in a rematch (January 4th).

The Wolverines lose no seniors from last year and gain Natalie Beilstein returning from injury as well as freshmen Morgan Smith, Briley Casanova, Austin Sheppard, and Lindsay Williams. That group of five is capable of bringing in probably ten 9.800+ routines that the team did without last season. The relief of having a backup of a 9.800 instead of a backup of crossed fingers and a cloud of smoke will help the team gain a rhythm much earlier.  

That is not to say that this season will be a smooth ride or that Michigan is necessarily a shoo-in for a Nationals spot. There are too many holes that need to be filled by new, untested, or inconsistent gymnasts to be confident that the old Michigan will be back. The beam rotation in particular needs to be gutted and recast. What is certain is that the team will have the luxury of numbers that it did not have last year. Now, those numbers have to become routines. 

Vault:

Vault should be a strong event for the Wolverines. At the recent exhibition, it was certainly the closest to being ready. Joanna Sampson, Sachi Sugiyama, and Katie Zurales led the team last year with regular ventures up to 9.875-9.900, and I expect the same from them this season. The bonuses should be the return of Beilstein, who is also good for a 9.900, and the introduction of Smith, who had a nice DTY as an elite and should be a scoring leader in NCAA.

Those five are enough to put together a nationally competitive vault rotation that can outscore several of the teams ranked above them. There is potential for value in the sixth spot as well from Casanova, who had a Y1.5 as an elite but should do the full in NCAA, Sheppard, who looked strong in the exhibition, Reema Zakharia, who has a solid handspring pike 1/2, and Stephanie Colbert, who was reliable for 9.775-9.800 last year. If healthy and in form, expect 49.300 to be the norm with potential to go higher.

Bars:

After the Botterman/Sexton/Wilson triumvirate graduated, there was always going to be a hole on bars. Well, more of a crater last season. Brittnee Martinez is a help, but she is better than the 9.845 RQS she recorded last year and needs to score regularly higher than that to be valuable in the late lineup.

Other than Martinez, there are multiple 9.800-9.850 routines that should see action: Zurales, Sugiyama, Shelby Gies, and potentially Annette Miele. All, however, have breaks that will keep them from scoring much higher than that. Joanna Sampson can go if necessary, but mostly the team needs to find some new 9.9s. Williams competed in the exhibition, but I’m not sold. Smith and Casanova have both been fine on bars in the past, but there is necessary cleaning to be done to make those the late-lineup routines they need to be.

Beam:

Oh, beam. I fear for Michigan on beam. So many times last season people who shouldn’t have been beaming were shoved into a beam position, which resulted in a bevy of errors from the likes of Miele and Sugiyama. Get them out of there. Katie Zurales can stay, and Gies, Sampson, and Martinez should, in theory, be usable for their experience. In practice, however, both Sampson and Martinez fell in the exhibition. This is terrifying already.

Morgan Smith seems to be the type who can solidly hit her acro. Her elite beam never stood out to me as anything special, but solid is exactly what this team needs. Casanova can certainly put together an NCAA set, but that consistency is a worry. Work to be done here. Work to be done.

Floor:

Floor is the other event where the return of Beilstein and her usual 9.900 will be the team’s everything. I’m a little concerned about her composition because she’s not performing the heathen double Arabian that took her Achilles away (at least not yet) and instead is opting for twisting skills that are not as strong. We’ll see.

Zakharia should be there with a double front that is not that scary, and I quite enjoy Sampson’s DLO as well. Sugiyama and Colbert can be early-lineup 9.800s, and Zurales maybe (maybe) can also get to the lineup. I’ve always thought Gies would be nice on floor, but I question the consistency. Like bars, I expect Smith and Casanova to see a lot of time here, but I’m not ready to proclaim them the savior 9.9s that the team needs until we, you know, actually see something from them.

Outlook:
Even though a lot about Michigan remains to be judged, particularly because we have not seen even one element of NCAA gymnastics from either Smith or Casanova, I believe that this team should be en route to Nationals at the end of the season. Compared to the teams I expect Michigan to be competing with (Arkansas, Oregon State, and the like), this team has more potential 9.9s than either. 

My biggest concern for the Wolverines right now is that beam will remain so questionable that they will end up counting falls that make them seem less talented than they are or that make them miss Nationals. This isn’t a team like UCLA that can count two falls a week and still be #6. They will need to squeeze every tenth out of each apparatus. If all goes to plan, the #10 preseason ranking might even be a bit soft as an estimate, but everything needs to go to plan first.

Intrasquad Explosion

A hearty batch of intrasquads and fake intrasquads (UCLA) took place over the weekend. Here’s the roundup. 

UCLA hosted its annual Meet the Floor Routines event. Disappointingly, there were no costumes this year. What’s the point of you, then? Also, Val is verging on copyright infringement by establishing a ranking system for the quality of people’s eyes, which I patented in 2007. You’ll be hearing from my lawyers.

The ones to watch so far are Danusia Francis, Sophina DeJesus, and Mattie Larson, so no surprises.

Mattie’s routine needs more time and refinement, but she moves so well that there is always potential. I’m not blown away, but I’m pleased. I love the beginning of Danusia’s routine and the grabbing of the hair. Sophina’s is exactly what we would expect (and I appreciate the change of pace in the second half, otherwise it would have been too much/too one-note), but can she tumble to match?

Also watch for Danusia’s free cartwheel in side position at the end of this beam video.

Utah competed in the Red Rocks Preview, and I was struck by a lack of depth compared to previous years. Taylor Allex and Kailah Delaney will be out until midseason, which will hurt on vault, but usually Utah has multiple 9.750s to spare that they trot out at this event. They can put together lineups, certainly, but some rotations will be grasping for tenths.  Bars is going to be rough, where even a couple of the stronger routines have issues (Lothrop: amplitude, Hansen: legs).

Lothrop’s Omelianchik has improved from what we saw last year, and Hughes should be a definite on bars once she is in full health with a dismount. Floor is very far along and will probably be competitively 49.325 this year.

Florida held the Orange and Blue Intrasquad, which we know because there is all this graffiti everywhere that is upsetting my delicate sensibilities. The Gators look good.

Vault is just a few landings away from being ready, which is not necessarily a December concern. The amplitude of gymnasts like Johnson, Hunter, and Sloan is supreme, and Marissa King’s vault is still my heaven. 

On bars, King looked sloppy and Dickerson had her usual deductions, but Macko, Sloan, and Johnson are all looking excellent. One deduction here or there (and Sloan needs to work out the leg separation on the bail), but if they were to perform those exact routines on January 4th at home against Ball State, they would gets 9.9s. Sloan did fall on beam (what is it, day one of Nationals?), but she is about a month of refinement away from being a top AAer. It is difficult to evaluate the floor routines until we see them in their complete forms, but everything looks better than on track. 

Not to be outdone, Oklahoma held an intrasquad without a fancy name. Anyone else already excited for Oklahoma/Georgia on the first weekend? I’m interested to see how the vault and floor lineups work out for Oklahoma, especially vault. Scaman will be a boost, but who are going to be those first few routines that have to score minimum 9.875s? There’s no room for a 9.800 at the beginning of the lineup anymore. With Scaman and Kmieciak, I appreciate that Oklahoma has recruited for its weaknesses, which we don’t see enough teams able to do. Good awareness.

Michigan hosted an exhibition with Michigan State. I love that the scoring for Michigan at a preseason exo is still stricter than most other places. Vault looks good. Don’t count this team out. Nothing from Morgan Smith?

Because gymnastics is a comedy, not a drama