Recent History
2017 – 7th
2016 – 8th
2015 – 8th
2014 – 6th
2013 – 14th
2012 – 8th
2011 – 4th
2010 – 7th

As is typical, Nebraska outpaced expectations in 2017 with a 7th-place finish (after a preseason coaches ranking of 12th). Nebraska has bested its preseason ranking in each of the last four seasons, which should make the other teams somewhat nervous this year since Nebraska received a preseason ranking of 9th.

It’s unsurprising that Nebraska tends to be underestimated because the team is basically a national secret. Without the preseason instragram videos, twitter updates, and live streams of the other top schools, Nebraska does not develop the same kind of reputation footprint or expectations, meaning the fans (and the judges) go into seasons much more blind. Nonetheless…

Vault
Lineup locks
Houchin (9.880), Schweihofer (9.830), Crouse (9.810),
Lineup options
Verceles Carr (FR), Epperson (9.790), Williams (9.775), Orel (9.660 in 2016), Roby (FR), Dujakovich (FR), K Hutchinson (FR), T Hutchinson (FR), Curtis (FR)

Nebraska enters the season in solid shape on vault, with two 10.0 starts returning from last season in Houchin and Crouse with their Y1.5s. Most teams in this section of the rankings are looking at one or two 10.0 starts total, so this should keep the Huskers in the front of the vaulting pack, as they typically are. Nebraska will hope to add a third 10.0 start from the freshman Verceles Carr, who competed a 1.5 to moderate success in the 2017 JO season. Even if that vault doesn’t develop, she’s powerful enough on vault that she should be one of the fulls in the lineup. Continue reading 2018 Outlook – Nebraska Cornhuskers →

Recent History
2017 – 6th
2016 – 3rd
2015 – 4th
2014 – 4th
2013 – 3rd
2012 – 1st
2011 – 1st
2010 – 3rd

Somewhat unexpectedly, 2017 turned into Alabama’s worst season since 2008, the result of a sudden poor showing in Super Six for 196.000. Still, Alabama spent the entirety of the 2017 season among the top six teams and looks poised to remain in the top six in 2018, provided the team shows a modicum of health.

As made clear by some depleted intrasquad lineups, which has stoked a mild case of December-panic about the Tide’s chances, the health of some perpetually injured former elites will be the biggest obstacle between Alabama and another successful season.

Vault
Lineup locks
Guerrero (9.880), Desch (9.845)
Lineup options
Dickson (FR), Graber (FR), Armbrecht (9.855), Winston (9.850), Childers (9.840), Guerra (-), Mahoney (-)

Alabama has a very competitive theoretical collection of 10.0 starts this season, one that would keep pace with most schools in the country. Because we haven’t seen…really any of them yet in preseason, however, it’s still a potential lineup rather than a confirmed lineup. The presence (or lack) of some of those 10.0s will make the difference between Alabama being a 49.300 vault team and a 49.4+ vault team.

The Y1.5 from Guerrero is the highest returning vault score and the most likely to make weekly appearances in 2018, which should again be joined by Desch‘s 1.5 at the end of the lineup. Ideally, two freshmen will assist. Dickson showed a DTY as recently as this spring, while Graber showed a high-scoring Y1.5 herself in JO. That would make for a strong four. You’d take that four. Perhaps a little more high-9.8s than 9.950s, but very usable scores. Continue reading 2018 Outlook – Alabama Crimson Tide →

Recent History
2017 – 11th
2016 – 14th
2015 – 12th
2014 – 13th
2013 – 16th
2012 – 12th
2011 – 8th
2010 – 8th

It’s a year of transition for Oregon State. The departure of an army of contributors—15 of the 24 routines from the national semifinals last season—means that the Beavers will be relying on a number of gymnasts who did not make lineups last year to contribute not only lineup routines but the most important scores in those lineups.

Whenever that’s the case, expectations are not especially high, and they won’t be for Oregon State this season. Repeating last year’s 11th-place result (a disappointing finish then) would be a victory this year. It also means that putting together lineups is a fun little puzzle because there are so many unknown factors, so let’s get to it, shall we?

Vault
Lineup locks
Dessaints (9.900), Jacobsen (9.855), Yanish (FR)
Lineup options
Gill (9.785), Khamedoost (9.775), Singley (9.775 in 2016) Lowery (-), Force (FR), Mack (FR), Davis (-)

Concerns about which gymnasts can fill competitive roles this season are highest on vault, where the Beavs find themselves somewhat short of 9.8-level options. The team returns just two gymnasts who have ever scored higher than 9.825 on vault.

The Y1.5 from Dessaints was essential last season, but it will be essential this season. She’s the 9.9 on this team. Jacobsen‘s Tsuk 1/1 is typically good for 9.850 and gives OSU a second 10.0 start, while the freshman Yanish has quite a powerful full and will be relied upon weekly for similar numbers. Those are your locks. Paired with 9.8s in the other three spots, OSU could get 49.2s, but if those other scores are in the 9.7s as they look like they might be, vault will be more 49.0ish. Continue reading 2018 Outlook – Oregon State Beavers →

Recent History
2017 – 4th
2016 – 5th
2015 – 11th
2014 – 8th
2013 – 4th
2012 – 3rd
2011 – 2nd
2010 – 1st

All told, the 2017 season ended reasonably for UCLA. Based on the talent on the roster, we would have expected a title-contending team, but based on the routines we actually saw develop in 2017, the finish was never going to be higher than 4th, which is exactly what happened. It’s certainly not a WOW result for a team with Ross and Kocian and whatnot, but those final lineups did what they were capable of doing.

The outlook is mostly similar for 2018. There will be optimism for a higher finish as some of the weaknesses on vault and floor should be addressed with new routines, optimism that is then counteracted by Madison Kocian’s surgery, leveling things out.

I’m not including Kocian in any of the lineup projections right now because we just don’t know whether we’ll see her at all (and if we do, it will be late in the year), so her routines are not ones UCLA can rely on. If she does come back, of course she’d be in any lineup she’s physically able to make.

Vault
Lineup locks
Ross (9.895), Hano (9.825), Tratz (FR), Dennis (FR)
Lineup options
Kramer (9.810), Hall (9.805), Savvidou (9.800), Meraz (9.796), Honest (9.790), Ohashi (9.737 in 2016), Kooyman (FR)

Vault proved UCLA’s weakest event in 2017, a season spent hoping more 10.0 vaults would come to fruition, and they never did. Don’t expect that story to go away suddenly in 2018, but the Bruins should also see an improved baseline on vault and a few more realistically high-scoring options.

The biggest factor is a healthy Hano, who showed the best vault of the Meet the Bruins event with a viable Y1.5 that can score real-world 9.9s. That’s a late-lineup luxury that UCLA did not have last year. In 2017, the 1.5s we did see came from Hall and Kramer, but they were not lineup-leading scores. Kramer was too likely to fall to make the final lineup, so this year she has switched to a tucked 1.5 (still a 10.0 start) in the hope of hitting more consistently. Hall is still going for the layout 1.5 in theory, but it’s always a little tucked anyway. That’s why even on the days she sticks, it’s a 9.850 vault. Both vaults should contend for the lineup again and will make it if they’re landed consistently, but they’ll be middle-lineup scores.

That brings us to this season’s edition of the “Do You Have a 10.0 Start?” game show, featuring contestants Tratz, Ross, and Dennis. All three should be in the vault lineup regardless (and do make for a better crop of fulls than UCLA had last year), but the hope for Tratz in particular is that she can bring the handspring pike 1/2 instead of the Yfull. We haven’t seen it yet. Continue reading 2018 Outlook – UCLA Bruins →