#5 Utah Preview

Utah continues to be the most fan friendly program in collegiate gymnastics.  Given the numerous training videos and free live streams of their meets provided by the Marsdens and Utah Athletics, the general fan is usually more familiar with Utah gymnastics than with most of the other programs in the country.  This is both a blessing and a curse.  It’s a blessing because it cultivates a dedicated and knowledgeable fan base, not just in Utah but all over the country.  It’s a curse because we know the deal.  We know that, on December 9th, Utah is going to look like the most prepared team in the country.  We’ve been here before. If we didn’t know anything, we would look at the routines from the Red Rocks Preview and say, “Wow, there are a lot of 9.750-9.800 routines.  If they can clean up and refine, they will be great this year.” Because we do know something, we understand that even though some landings and body positions will improve in the coming months, the overall gymnastics we see now is the same as we’ll see in April.

That being said, this level will still probably be good enough to place in the top 6.  The comparison between Utah and Romania is not a new one, but it is apt.  They’ve perfected the science of being fine. They will go to championships, they will be one of the most consistent teams, they will capitalize on others’ mistakes, and they will reach their highest achievable place.  Back in the day, that highest achievable place was a championship.  Then, it became more like top 3.  Now, it’s a 5th or 6th place finish.  Going better than that is probably beyond the talent level of this team.

The biggest reason Utah will get that far is that, unlike some of the teams ranked below them, they have numbers on each event.  While they won’t necessarily want all of these numbers competing, they have that sought after 10-12 routines on each event from which to choose.  An injury to any one of their gymnasts won’t put them out of contention.  The downside of that statement is that all of their gymnasts are replaceable.  They don’t have that star who is going to lead them on the score sheet.

Stephanie McAllister was their top all-arounder last season, but she is a 39.300 gymnast, not a 39.600 gymnast.  The consistency is there, but the crisp execution on four events isn’t.  Of the other returners, we can expect a bunch of 9.825s from Corrie Lothrop and Nansy Damianova on 3-4 events and from Cortni Beers on 2 events (though not if that wackadoo form on bars during RRP keeps up).

The return of Kyndal Robarts will be the biggest boost to this team, particularly on vault where she performs very well.  She is different from McAllister (who is solid but unamazing across the board) in that she has some really compelling qualities but some definite weaknesses that keep her from staking claim to the title of big scorer.  Looking at the floor routine in the above video, we see that the leaps in particular just aren’t happening right now.

A good sign for Utah is that they have a big class of 5 freshmen coming in.  I’m a firm believer that it always helps to have new blood in lineups because we don’t have memories and expectations of these gymnasts’ performance qualities.  They don’t have the same association with the previous year’s results. Of this group, Tory Wilson has been getting some attention for floor because of her double layout, but I don’t expect to see too much from her or Becky Tutka this year.  Kassandra Lopez was a notable L10 and competed at Nastia’s Pink Leotard Jamboree a couple times, and she will likely fit into that Lothrop/Damianova category.  Good, solid, professional, fine.

Georgia Dabritz is the biggest name of the incoming group because she competed a few times at Visa Championships.  She should compete often and score well on vault and bars.  Even though she had a less notable elite career than Lothrop, I see more potential in her as an NCAA gymnast.

Even though Dabritz is the most talented of the group, the new gymnast I’m most interested in is Kailah Delaney.  While things aren’t perfect (you will find yourself saying, “Legs!” on beam in the above video), I like her vault and her presence.  She has the potential to break out of the Utah mold a little bit if allowed the chance to compete regularly.  I’ll be rooting for her.

Because of this incoming group, expect Utah to be better than they were last year.  They have a couple new 9.9 routines from Robarts and Dabritz that they didn’t have access to in 2011 when they were a very 196.400 team all year long.  Expect this year’s team to be more 196.750, which I anticipate will be about the cutoff after semifinals.  And because they’re Utah, let’s bet on them to make it.


#6 Nebraska Preview

Of all the top teams, Nebraska gets the least notoriety.  They don’t often attract the big name or elite gymnasts, and (competing in the Big 12 until this year) they haven’t had the conference rivalries and built-in strength of schedule that give a team both identity and national attention.  With the rise of Oklahoma’s program, there was a budding opportunity for a strong, attention-getting rivalry between two of the best teams, but Nebraska’s move to the Big 10 limits that a little.  I still would like that rivalry to be cultivated, though, and seeing the two schools competing in a quad meet this year is a bit disappointing.  The presence of other teams (especially lower ranked ones) tends to mitigate the atmosphere and excitement of a rivalry.

Nebraska was able to beat both Florida and Utah in national semifinals last year by sticking landings and not giving away unnecessary tenths, even if they didn’t have the biggest difficulty or reputation.  This attitude and tenacity will have to continue in 2012 because there are significant questions about the depth of the team and how that depth will or will not be able to overcome some of their weaknesses, namely the beam.

As seen in the discussion of beam strength, Nebraska was the weakest of the top 10 last year when competing after a fall on the beam.  At championships, their highest score on beam was a 9.800.  In Super Six, they were competitive with third place Oklahoma on three events, but ended up .5 lower solely because of the beam.  With no standout performers and only 4 returners to the lineup, they will need to find bigger scores on this event from somewhere in this incoming freshman class.

There are five new freshmen this year, but the clear standout in the bunch is Jessie DeZiel.  Six months ago, she would have been considered just another one of the new L10s and wouldn’t have received much attention at all.  But after making the elite push to compete at Visa Championships in her home state, DeZiel found herself on the Pan Am team and performed very well.  In true gymnastics fan fashion, the narrative about DeZiel went from the condescension of “Aww, isn’t that sweet” when she made championships to the overreaction of “She’s the best gymnast on the Pan Am team” after she performed so well.  To be clear, she was not the best gymnast on a Pan Am team that included Shawn Johnson, Bridget Sloan, and Bridgette Caquatto (and she would be completely overlooked if she continued elite), but she did perform with exceptional poise and confidence in Guadalajara, which will serve her very well in NCAA.  Also, her Yurchenko double full is really quite excellent.  They will need her anchoring that event and replacing Erin Davis’s score.

In addition to DeZiel, Nebraska is bringing in Kailyn Hawkins, Amanda and Jennifer Lauer, and Desire’ (That’s an apostrophe, not a smudge) Stephens, all of whom are scholarship athletes and can be expected to contend for lineups.  Of this group, Hawkins has the biggest skill set.

Even though Nebraska is bringing in these five new freshman, the team is still smaller than most, having lost Erin Davis (she of the 10 on vault), Brittnee Habbib, Maria Scaffidi, and Maddie Steinauer — leaving them with 2 or 3 spots to fill on every event.  With 13 total gymnasts, including some non-competers, they will not have the 10-11 competitive routines on each event that many of the top schools will have to choose from, meaning they will have to put up a gymnast here and there whose goal is to manage instead of excel.

In fact, much like Michigan, the lack of depth became apparent during a recent scored intrasquad where some of the new freshmen did not show any gymnastics and the team showed only 6 floor routines. Nebraska might be safe enough for routine numbers if they were to keep the whole team healthy, but that never happens to anyone.  If they find themselves scraping the gym for routines, it will be down to veterans Lora Evenstad, Janelle Giblin, and Brittany Skinner (along with Jamie Schleppenbach’s vault) to carry the team into 9.9 territory with confidence and make up for some inexperienced scores in these lineups.

Because they have so many competing gymnasts to replace from last year’s team, it’s hard to envision Nebraska having a repeat 4th place performance.  The top schools are all trading up, increasing their scoring potential significantly from last year.  Nebraska will more likely be in the position of trying to tread water, focusing on replacing the scores they lost from last year instead of improving upon them.  They surprised in 2011 during a relatively weak year across the nation, but it will take an even bigger effort to do it again in 2012.

There Will Be Costumes

There are a lot of wonderful things to say about UCLA gymnastics.  The very best is that, no matter the situation, it’s always a show and they always commit to that show, a show complete with costumes, characters, motifs, and sometimes even a tragedy.

Yesterday, UCLA hosted the “Meets the Bruins” event.  It’s like an intrasquad, but with more greatness. Other schools show routines.  UCLA unveils performances.  Some people hate that about them.  These people are no fun, and I don’t want you hanging out with them anymore.

No show is complete without a grand entrance:

Come on, they carried her onto the floor.  How can you not love that? 
This routine is completely different than I expected Val to put together for Mattie, but it’s excellent.  It’s a great lesson that spins are choreography rather than something than can be (or should be) placed into a separate category.  We see so many routines that are more like “OK, I did my dance, now I’m going to do my spin.”
“Oops, I almost accidentally did my floor routine in high heels.”  #uclagymproblems

Can we convince Aisha to get her tumbling down this year so we actually get to see this routine in competition?  Fortunately, UCLA locked in Gerber II for 2013-14, so we get 4 more years of this.

UCLA is posting a whole slew of videos at the BruinGymnastics youtube page, complete with an identifying bars skills tutorial (“Gienger!”).  Don’t try to watch the videos with that UCLA all-access player. It’s useless nonsense.

#7 Oregon State Preview

Because of their surprisingly weak performance in the national semifinals last year, it’s easy to forget that Oregon State was the in-form team and a popular dark horse pick heading into the postseason last year. They performed tremendously at the Pac-10 Championships, exhibiting well-polished gymnastics with confident landings to beat a Bruin team that was just starting to peak.  But it was that very confidence that deserted them during national semifinals.  The gymnastics got tense, and uncharacteristically weak meets from Britney Ranzy and Olivia Vivian put them just behind Utah and well behind their potential.

It would seem, then, that Oregon State should be a top 5 favorite in 2012 as long as they avoid a collapse during championships, but the off-season transfer of Britney Ranzy to LSU has dramatically changed the complexion of the team.  For the most part, Oregon State recruits and cultivates gymnasts with elegant line and clean gymnastics who excel on bars and beam but who lack the dynamics on the power events.  Ranzy filled a major hole on this team by bringing that raw power and scoring potential to vault and floor. She was sticking that Yurchenko full and scoring 9.9 almost every week.  Her two events were the biggest improvement between Oregon State 2010, a team that barely snuck through regionals on a tiebreak over a collapsed Georgia, and Oregon State 2011, the #3 regionals seed.  Without her (or the graduated Becky Colvin) the prospects on vault in particular look unfortunate.  They’ve had to lead off vault with 9.6s in the past, and we hope it doesn’t happen again.

Not to completely shortchange Oregon State, though, they do still have a number of impressive, high-scoring routines that should help them be competitive, namely on the uneven bars.  Leaders Olivia Vivian, Leslie Mak, and Makayla Stambaugh all bring crisp execution and confident swing to the event, giving the team a strong chance to retain the title of best bars team in the country.  They will need to put up 49.4s by the end of the season to help make up for vault.

Beam is a bit of a mixed bag for the Beavers, but less because of form and more because of depth and consistency.  Stambaugh is very strong on bars and floor and useful on vault, but her lack of consistency on beam makes her a less compelling choice.  Even when she hits, it’s a nervy nail biter, yet she had to be in the lineup last year.  Even so, it’s difficult to classify beam as a weakness for Oregon State when they have Leslie Mak anchoring.  Mak is among the very best beamers in the country and likely would have defeated Sam Peszek at event finals last year had she hit.  She makes it easy to ignore the fact that she has only a gainer full dismount and is fully deserving of 9.9s.

Mak, Stambaugh, and Vivian will be the backbone of the team in 2012, each competing on at least three events with Kelsi Blalock, Brittany Harris, and Stephanie McGregor filling in some other holes early in lineups and getting 9.800-9.850.  This isn’t quite enough to contend, and the team will have to find 2 vaults and preferably 2 floor routines from somewhere.  After the transfers of Ranzy and Leilani Alferos (to Cal), they brought in a bunch of new gymnasts to help fill out the team.  The freshman class totals 6 in all, but it’s hard to imagine any of them completely satisfying what the team needs.  The original NLI signers, Chelsea Tang and Cerise Witherby, would be expected to have the most impact as both have been successful at the JO level.  They will have the skill set for NCAA (unlike some of the walkons who have clean gymnastics but just can’t compete with difficulty) and can certainly make lineups for the team, though it would be hard to proclaim them future scoring leaders.

Tanya Chaplin has shown an ability in the past to get excellent gymnastics out of unheralded gymnasts, and she will need that this year to prevent Oregon State from being a one-event wonder that has trouble contending with the better teams in the power department.  It will be interesting to watch for her January lineups to see who she is trying out and who is rising to the challenge.

Because gymnastics is a comedy, not a drama