Our 5/8/17 Regional will take place at the University of Utah at 8:00 ET / 5:00 PT and will feature [5] Nebraska, [8] Utah, [17] Minnesota, [24] Iowa State, [28] Arizona State, and [35] San Jose State

The Favorites:
Unlike the other Regionals previewed so far, this one really could go either way between the top two seeds. Just a few weeks ago, Nebraska defeated Utah in Salt Lake City in a high-scoring affair. It won’t take a fall for one of these two teams to fall behind the other; it will come down to the landings. Both Nebraska and Utah should advance easily, so there may not be much drama at this meet. Yet, it will be a matter of pride for Utah to avenge the home loss from a few weeks ago. Losing twice to Nebraska at home is not the tone the Utes want to set entering Nationals.

The Huskers are coming off a victory at Big Tens where they were never legitimately challenged and ended up beating Ohio State by nearly nine tenths. The team has found its core group of seven competitors, and while an injury to any one of them would be devastating, they look solid for the time being. The issue for Nebraska, as it has been for a while, is their status as a three-event team. DeZiel, Giblin, Wong, and Evenstad are all capable of going 9.900 on two or three events, but all of the sudden the wheels fall off the wagon and scatter into a gully once the team goes to beam, where falls and 9.700s are all too often the order of the day. If they can stay competitive on beam (even a 48.8-48.9 is OK), then I give the team at least a fair shot at winning again.

Utah had a strange little meet at Pac-12s. One of the stranger parts was that, for the first time since 2010, the Utes counted a fall on the beam. With Stanford counting a fall and UCLA under-performing, Utah had no business losing this met at home, but the falls from Lopez and Lofgren put them just behind the Bruins.  However, because it was such a rare error, I don’t expect it to repeat at Regionals. I do, however, expect to see similar scoring to what we saw at Pac-12s, where the judges were hyper-focused on landings without giving as much notice to the other qualities of the routines. If Utah sticks the way they did two weeks ago, expect a similar scoring situation (as in 13 scores of 9.900+ over 24 routines). The Utes will start on floor, so if they go 49.500 again, don’t expect the Huskers to catch up.

The Others:
I’m not making a contenders section because I don’t see much chance (even if falls are counted) that Nebraska and Utah will fail to advance. Though Minnesota has come on strong over the last month or so, it would probably take one of the top two teams counting multiple falls for the Gophers to contend. Minnesota surprised a bit on vault and floor at Big Tens, earning a whole bunch of scores in the 9.8s to go over 49 on both events. This team is enjoyable on floor, so if you haven’t seen them yet this year, be sure to keep an eye on that rotation. A parade of 9.7s on bars and beam erased any hope of a truly big score, but the third-place finish was respectable. However, it is those bars and beam rotations that will keep Minnesota from challenging for a spot at Nationals.

Following Minnesota we have Iowa State, a team that is similarly capable of a couple solid rotations but not four. At Big 12s, they rode Celine Paulus’s 9.950 on vault to a 196 to tie Missouri. However, rotations over 49 have been the exception for Iowa State this year, and the team probably does peak out around 196 on a great day, which they likely won’t have at Regionals (though maybe if the scoring does in fact go as high as Pac-12s did). As the #4 seed, they at least have the benefit of Olympic rotation order.

Arizona State features some quality routines on vault and floor from Beate Jones, but it is the rare other team member who can record a score over 9.800. The few times I’ve seen ASU this season they have severely struggled on the bars with handstand issues that keep every routine in the 9.7s. Floor is by far the best event, so they could go 49 there, but I don’t expect a lot of competitive routines throughout the meet. They needed more from former elite Morgan Steigerwalt this season, and she will certainly have to take a starring role next year. ASU also vaults only five people, so that says a lot about their depth right now.

San Jose State has done well to carve out a niche for themselves in that high-194s territory, but that’s about all we can expect from Regionals. The main focus for this team will be getting an individual spot at Nationals for AA star Thomasina Wallace, their best performer on every event. Wallace won the AA at the WAC Championships over Moriah Martin of Denver, and she at least has a very nice shot of making it out of this Regional.

Our fourth Regional up for debate will be hosted by the University of Washington at 7:00 ET / 4:00 PT on Saturday and features [4] Alabama, [9] LSU, [16] Arizona, [23] Washington, [30] Iowa, and [36] Central Michigan.

The Favorite:

Not to sound too repetitive, but like the other top seeds previewed so far (we’ll have a bit more discussion for the final two Regionals), I don’t see Alabama having any trouble at all taking first place at this Regional. One of the biggest issues for Alabama toward the end of the season has been establishing the best beam and floor lineups, but while the team certainly struggled on beam at SECs, I do think the lineup that competed was the correct choice. Gutierrez and Sledge have the potential for fine routines, but they have not proven the reliability that some of the others have. Milliner is still a bit of a question, and I would like to see Jacob regain some of her form from last postseason, but this is the best of the available options. At any rate, I don’t expect Alabama to have a fall at Regionals, so they’re fine.

The biggest factor in determining Alabama’s success likely will not be a single event but will be their ability to stick landings across four events. Alabama should always be neck and neck with UCLA for the top score on vault, but they haven’t stuck well in weeks. Now, they recently got a 49.475 at home, but if you watch the vaults, there were way too many tenths given away on landings. Similarly, the first three bar workers are not standouts and will incur definite deductions on handstands (Demeo’s half turn is just asking for it, and I question the routine composition for that reason), so stuck landings are a must. I don’t see any of the first three going above a 9.800 without a stick.

The other major key for Alabama is Geralen Stack-Eaton. This team is very reliant on its seniors and will not be successful if both don’t have a great meet at the same time. At Nationals, Stack-Eaton should be in the running for the AA title because she can go 9.900 on every event, but the team cannot afford her to have any stinker routines like she did at SECs. Those routines (along with Priess on beam) were the difference between first and second. If Stack-Eaton isn’t getting 9.9s, then who is?

The Contender:
I don’t mean to completely discount Arizona and Washington as teams, but do we really see them contending for the second qualification spot? I don’t. Of course, that will probably ensure that it happens as I have a really horrible history with predictions, but given recent performances and the cushy nature of this Regional, I think LSU has to feel pretty secure that about finishing second here.

Of all of teams, LSU is the most improved this year. 2011 was a complete disaster where they often struggled to break 195. Last year, a 49 was a great rotation, and this year it is an expectation. The antics of vault judge #2 at SECs not withstanding (poor judge #2, I’ve harped on her so much, but still . . .), LSU can earn huge numbers on vault and compete with nearly every other team. They are under-ranked at #6 on this event. They should be more like 3rd-4th.

One concern for LSU, though, is consistency. They are often accepting one fall on bars and beam, and while they haven’t had to actually count a fall in a while, that’s not a sustainable trend. Early lineup falls and 9.750s are no longer acceptable if they want to do anything other than make up the numbers at Nationals. Without some of those scores at the beginning of bars and floor at SECs, they would have challenged Alabama for a surprise second place. They really are just a few 9.850s away from being a top team, and while they don’t have the gymnasts to get there this year, there is hope for many future top 10 seasons.

The Near Contenders:
Arizona and Washington are very similar teams, but Washington’s frequent falls primarily account for the difference in ranking. At Pac-12s, Washington hit one beam routine higher than a 9.600 (and that 9.600 was when Whitney got a 9.900 from one judge and a 9.350 from another – how are we OK with that?). Arizona has been much more consistent, and I expect the Wildcats to hit for a mid-195 like they do most weeks. Like many #3 seeds this year, Arizona has some standout performers in Cristello, Matusik, and Quirk, but there’s not really anyone else on the team who can deliver more than a 9.800 with any level of consistency.

Washington has strong routines thrown in here and there, not so much from a couple standout AAers but from a wider range of specialists who can bring in periodic 9.850-9.875s. If Arizona finishes third at this meet, it will be on the strength of those AAers, but if Washington finishes third it will be on the strength of a consistent team-wide 9.800 effort. The other focus for Arizona will be trying to qualify individuals to Nationals, as Cristello and Quirk could be our AA qualifiers from this region.

Iowa was hanging around the same ranking as Washington for much of the beginning of the season, so I was a bit surprised to see them slip. A lot of that has to do with teams like Arizona and Washington being capable of going over 196 on a really strong day, while Iowa probably peaks out in the high 195s, which they did achieve a couple times. Jessa Hansen is the standout AAer for Iowa in that she can get 9.800 on every event, but it will be difficult for her to take one of the AA spots. However, give Iowa a shot at finishing 3rd at this Regional. They have just as much of a shot as the two above.

The Other:
Central Michigan just edged out BYU for the final Regional qualification spot. Surely the goal for the season was to make Regionals, so mission accomplished, though this has been a weaker year than some we’ve seen recently. There’s an outside chance that Teubner could take an individual spot, but mostly it will be about trying to stay close and manage a 49 rotation, which they did not do last year at Regionals.

Our third Regional will take place at the University of Arkansas at 5:00 ET / 2:00 PT on Saturday and will feature [3] UCLA, [10] Arkansas, [15] Boise State, [19] Missouri, [29] New Hampshire, and [34] Maryland.

The Favorite:

Like Florida and Oklahoma, the UCLA Bruins are the clear favorite to win this Regional, and I expect them to have little trouble advancing here. Aside from the general narrative that UCLA teams peak beginning at Regionals, this UCLA team is much more secure across the apparatuses than some of the recent teams, which is the primary consideration for a top team advancing to Nationals. A great performance isn’t really necessary, as we saw at Pac-12s. This team had disasters from Peszek on bars and Courtney on beam and did not succumb to having to count a low score and didn’t let it deflate the overall performance (which was adequate but lackluster both before and after the falls). At this point, UCLA is a near guarantee for a 49.450+ on vault, and so a parade of 9.850s on the other events is all they’ll need to secure a top two finish.

As is always the case with UCLA teams, even though it is April, I still have multiple questions about the lineups. One of the major questions regards Kaelie Baer and where she fits in. She’s been the leadoff on vault all season, but in my mind the best vault lineup would be Hopfner-Hibbs, Larson, Peszek, Courtney, Frattone, and Zamarripa. So, does Val make the change or keep Baer in that position? Also, Courtney was put into Baer’s spot on beam at Pac-12s but had a disaster, so does Baer get the spot back? To me, it’s a question of attitude. Baer is perhaps the safer choice but doesn’t have a huge scoring potential.

We’ve become so used to talking about beam when it comes to UCLA, but I actually have confidence in the primary five to hit and avoid counting a fall. In evaluating the prospects for Nationals, the most tenuous apparatus for the Bruins is bars. This year should have been an improvement on that event, but with Wong’s injury and Whitcomb’s injury/handstands/disappearance, we’ve seen little progress at all. No one has been great so far, and this group is too capable of slogging along for 9.825s, which is fine for now but won’t be in Duluth. This dismounts in particular need to come together because many were not even close to sticking at Pac-12s.

The Contenders:

Arkansas reached #1 for one week this season, but they have been wholly out of form ever since the injury to Katherine Grable. What was once a legitimate high-196s team now hasn’t broken 196.500 since February 3rd. I do expect to see Grable back on bars and beam for Saturday, which should help avoid some of the weak routines we’ve been seeing, but it may not be enough to make Arkansas secure in this second position.

The biggest problem rotation for the Razorbacks right now, and throughout the season really, is floor. Even ignoring from the profound catastrophe of a rotation at SECs, this team has struggled to find six gymnasts who can go on this apparatus since January. Because of this, the Cooks may feel pressure to get Grable back into the floor lineup for this weekend, but she can’t have had very many numbers at all, so it may not be possible. Arkansas will be starting on floor again at Regionals, so we will know right away whether they are truly able advance or whether Boise State has some hope.

Last year, many people gave Boise State a shot to advance over Arkansas at Regionals (though it ended up being Florida that they gave the biggest scare to). This year, the Broncos don’t have quite the same scoring potential across all the events (floor in particular has been an issue), so since the competition is taking place in Fayetteville, I think they will need some mistakes from Arkansas in order to advance. Now, the difference between the two teams is close enough that those mistakes don’t need to be falls. A few too many 9.7s from Arkansas in the first three positions should be enough to make this close. Fortunately, both teams will be on the competition floor for the final rotation, so let’s hope it stays close the whole way to give us an exciting ending.

If Arkansas goes 49.300 on floor to start, expect them to take it, but anything less than that will give Boise State a chance. The Broncos must get a few 9.900s from Glass and Potvin-Green, and they need everyone in that beam rotation to go at least 9.750. The 9.675-9.725s that we’ve been seeing too often are not acceptable at Regionals. Potvin-Green has been putting up humongous AA performances the last few weeks, and she will have have the unenviable duty of needing to match Pisani to keep Boise State close.

Let’s also not overlook Missouri, as the Tigers have been peaking in March and proving a capability to go over 196 consistently. I’m not sure I see them challenging if this is a clean competition because they don’t have the 9.9s that the top three teams do, but they do have enough 9.850s later in lineups to make up for some lower scores starting off. Missouri made Nationals in 2010 on the strength of Sarah Shire and some home scoring, but they don’t have that AA force (like Pisani or Potvin-Green) to lift the rest of the group this year. However, they should hang around enough to pester the other teams and give us something interesting to watch throughout the meet. We won’t be ignoring them the way we will some other #4 seeds.

The Others:
On a good day, New Hampshire can go into the mid-195s, and they have some competitive individual routines but no one who can deliver a big score on more than one event. Expect to see a bunch of 9.725-9.750 routines with a 9.800-9.850 or two anchoring the rotations. The season-high score for UNH is 195.800, so meeting that at a Regional would be a victory.

Maryland posted their best score by far at the conference championships by getting some huge numbers on floor, but I don’t expect that to continue or be enough to contend at Regionals. Like New Hampshire, a score in the mid-195s for Maryland would be a nice result and would show that they can compete with some of the higher-ranked teams. It can be harder for the lower-seeded teams to get high scores at Regionals because they are directly compared with some of the best teams in the country, so staying afloat is a positive outcome.

The second preview on the docket features our #2 national seed, the Oklahoma Sooners, traveling to Illinois in an effort to earn their place in yet another National Championship. Along with [2] Oklahoma, the teams competing in this Regional are [11] Stanford, [14] Denver, [22] Illinois, [24] Kentucky, and [32] Illinois-Chicago.

The Favorite:

For being the #2 team in the country, Oklahoma certainly has been flying under the radar lately. The Sooners put up a significant score at the Big 12 Championships at home (the highest in the country that weekend, in fact), so they should be in the forefront of the conversation. And yet, they preceded that result with two lackluster road performances and have to deal with the injury to Kayla Nowak, so there are definite questions as to how this team is oriented heading into the championship season and whether their best gymnastics is still ahead of them.

However, like Florida, I don’t see much of a chance that Oklahoma will fail to advance. This team is consistent enough that, even whey they perform poorly, they’re still able to avoid counting falls and manage an adequate score. Though the Sooners were all kinds of off when they visited UCLA, they still posted a mid-196, and even that score would be enough to advance out of this group.

When watching Oklahoma at this Regional, keep an eye on amplitude of elements across all the events. This area is always evaluated inconsistently during the regular season, but when trying to separate routines during the postseason, it can become a much greater issue. The Sooners have enough difficulty and excel at putting up consistent routines, but in vaulting, tumbling, and some of the beam elements, Oklahoma needs to show competitive amplitude, speed, lightness, and extension, the kinds of qualities that gymnastics people mean when they talk about showing sufficient dynamics.

But for now, I expect to see Oklahoma’s lineup hit a lot of 9.875 routines this weekend and score around 197, which would be enough to qualify easily.

The Contenders:

Before the Pac-12 Championships, Stanford was the odds-on choice for Regionals upset special for the second year in a row. While that still could happen, the combination of three excellent rotations at Pac-12s and a pretty cushy Regional draw means that I am no longer predicting it.

Stanford is beginning to peak and has shown some excellent, clean gymnastics, especially on the balance beam. Ivana Hong is also starting to hit the way she needs to in order to be a star for the team. At the beginning of the season, we knew it would be crucial for Hong and Shapiro to be scoring well on several events for Stanford to contend. Getting one of those two pieces in place means Stanford should make Nationals, though they will be hard pressed to go much farther. While the scores at Pac-12s were inflated, I can see Stanford earning in the high 196s for a complete meet counting no falls or major mistakes. I hesitate to go higher than that because I do still have questions about the depth of the floor and vault lineups as well as the ability to hit under pressure. And there certainly will be pressure at Regionals, with the team trying to overcome the disappointing memories from last year.

I feel confident enough that Stanford will advance, though, because the next seed is surprise #14  Denver. After a 196.350 on the road in the last meet, the Pioneers jumped to a season-high ranking to end the season. However, Denver peaks out in that low-196 range, so they are going to need someone above them to count a fall in order to advance because they don’t have the 9.900 performances to get there on their own. Moriah Martin’s vault can score very well, and there are some solid floor performances that can keep them competitive, but other than that, Denver will need to get those consistent 9.775-9.825 scores from every single competitor and hope that someone else makes a mistake.

I’m also including the #4 seed Illinois in the contenders section because they are the host team and they did make Nationals last year, but I don’t think it is too realistic to expect them to get there again. Illinois is in a similar situation to Denver in that they don’t have to 9.900s to help them get a big score, but they also have way too many routines that aren’t going to score higher than 9.750 to contend with Oklahoma and Stanford, even if there’s a fall counting. Once you get past Joannides, Weinstein, and See, the scores just aren’t there, even at a home meet. Vault has been the biggest struggle for Illinois this season, where they don’t break 49 and will give away so many tenths to the rest of the teams.

Oklahoma doesn’t really count falls and Stanford will be on enough of a mission that I see both of them advancing with a fairly comfortable margin.

The Others:
As a team, Kentucky is not too different from Illinois, but the Wildcats lack the strong AA presence that Illinois has, which can make up for some of the 9.7s at the beginning of lineups. For Kentucky, the routines don’t really build toward stronger gymnastics at the end of the lineup. Everything is a bit too unrefined to see them scoring much higher than mid-195s, which will not be enough to advance. The surprise 5th place finish at SECs, when everyone saw them finishing last, should be the victory for this season.

Speaking of victories, Illinois-Chicago has advanced to the Regionals for the first time in five years. They have no chance to advance further, but well done on that front. For teams like UIC, this meet is more about trying to hit 24 for 24 to see how they match up against schools like Kentucky. Outpacing a Kentucky or a rival like Illinois would be a great boost for the team to make that next step.