The decider.

Currently, Canada sits in the cutoff position, 8th as a team with 160.964. A familiar spot for Canada.

On the events, the last three spots currently belong to Steingruber, Murakami, and Black, who will have to try to survive Andrade, Moreno, and Yeo in this final group.

On bars, the last three spots currently belong to Biles, De Jesus Dos Santos, and Popa with people like Derwael, Seitz, Bui, Adlerteg, Kovacs, and Andrade still to perform among others.

On beam, the last three spots belong to Biles, Urazova, and Ashikawa, and while this is not such a beam-heavy group, there are Saraiva, Derwael, Schaefer, and Andrade here.

On floor, the last three spots belong to Melnikova, Murakami, and Jennifer Gadirova, but there are not a tonnnn of 13.8ables in this group. Andrade and Saraiva are here.

Continue reading Women’s Olympic Qualification – Subdivision 5 →

Unlike for the men, some of the women’s subdivisions are grouped together in the same session running back-to-back, so I’m keeping them in the same post.

Here, we have the Japan and Italy subdivision up first, and the big one, the Russia, China, Great Britain subdivision, up right afterward.

In the first, I have Japan penciled in as the most likely #4 team, so we’ll see if the actual performance merits that, or whether Italy can regain some 2019ishness despite all the broken. Ferrari and Murakami should also give us a sense of what counts as a good floor score at these Olympics. I expect both teams to make the team final, but they’ll have to, you know, stay on a couple times.

Japan has Hiraiwa listed last for the team on every event, so I wonder if that just means they’re trying to score-build for her—or if she won’t necessarily do the AA if the three before her hit. Should be some good AA races here. Murakami is of course expected to make it for Japan, but the second Japanese gymnast and both Italians are up for grabs.

Continue reading Women’s Olympic Qualification – Subdivisions 1 & 2 →

It’s the turn of the US, Taiwan, Germany, and South Korea in the final subdivision, which will also give us all the answers we need about who is advancing to which final.

For team goals, Great Britain put up a really solid 4th place number earlier with a 256.594. Beating that should be the goal of the US team, and it’s certainly not a given that they’d do so. Average scores this year have been putting the US men more like 254 or 255, so they’ll need to step it up to qualify in 4th here.

Any team who goes better than 249.193 here is automatically in the team final.

These are the current cutoffs for event finals, so at very minimum, gymnasts must do better than that to get into EF.

Floor – 14.666
Horse – 14.666
Rings – 14.400
Vault – 14.000
PBars – 15.233
HBar – 14.333

Continue reading Men’s Olympic Qualification – Subdivision 3 →

On to subdivision 2!

Here we have Japan, Great Britain, Switzerland, and Brazil, and the race to see which Japanese gymnasts advance to the all-around final should be intense. It very realistically could be any of the 4 of them depending on the day and consistency, and if everyone crying at the end of every high bar routine at event nationals is any indication, there’s going to be kind of a lot riding on it.

Japan now knows the assignment, which is China’s 262.061, which leads Russia by a tenth.

In general, Great Britain has occupied 5th place in the team hierarchy lately, ahead of Switzerland, but we’ll see if GB’s team position holds up this year because there are some scoring holes in this group of four and they’ll have Whitlock up on just 3 events (but you COULDN’T select Becky Downie because she doesn’t do the AA).

Individually, we’ll have Uchimura competing on PB in rotation 1 (presumably to warm up) and high bar in rotation 2. Zanetti also goes to rings in rotation 2. Rotation 6 will also be a big deal, with Whitlock’s pommel horse and Petrounias on rings coming then.

Continue reading Men’s Olympic Qualification – Subdivision 2 →

It’s happening!

In the team department, the first subdivision features big boys Russia and China, as well as Spain’s team, and an Oleg-free Ukraine trying to make do with 3 athletes on 4 of the 6 events.

Everyone for Russia is slated for every event on the start list, but Abliazin is listed 4th on several events and Dalaloyan is listed 4th on others, so we’ll see how much “I’m actually doing this routine” ends up happening versus how much “I’m straight-up a corpse.” Dalaloyan is also listed for two vaults. WHY ARE YOU LIKE THIS?

Nagornyy and Belyavisky will be the favorites to make the AA for Russia. Xiao Ruoteng and Sun Wei will enter as the favorites to make the AA for China, but it’s a close enough race that a fall can certainly upend things. This subdivision will also set the stage for what’s needed in terms of EF qualifying scores, but it will be hard to tell what’s actually going to hold up at this point.

As for the individual competitors, the big one to watch will be the second rotation, when McClenaghan will be up 4th on horse, Deurloo and Zonderland will be on high bar, and Zapata will be on floor. Also that’s Russia’s vault rotation (ack) and Zou Jingyuan’s PBars. So, that one’s going to be busy. But we’ll also see Dolgopyat and Shatilov on floor in rotation 3 and Dragulescu on vault in rotation 4.

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In the team race, China starts on vault and Russia starts on rings. Rings should be a really good event for Russia, but vault is vault, so China will expect a lead after 1.

Just 19 of the individual men are slated to do the all-around. That means that with 2-per-country, there are only 43 possible people to qualify for the 24 AA final spots.

I have both the Tokyo live scores and the NBC live scores pages up to test which one is better and updates faster.

Continue reading Men’s Olympic Qualification – Subdivision 1 →

It’s kind of strange going into a US women’s podium training without the looming specter of the reveal as to whether Laurie Hernandez will get to do the all-around in qualification or not.

But there’s still plenty to wonder about. Here’s what I’m pondering before we start, aka the main issues I’m watching for today.

Floor: Will Carey try the triple double? What passes is Lee going for, and has she decided to add more D? Where is McCallum placed in the order? I imagine the US will want McCallum to be able to go on floor in the team final—if for no other reason than as justification for this team selection because if McCallum only does vault in TF it’s going to look baaaaaaad. But also as a way of resting Lee so that she doesn’t have to do too much, especially if she ends up making the all-around final.

Vault: Who looks like she’s going to make the vault final, Carey or Skinner? We haven’t seen Carey’s Cheng since February, which will be the most critical vault to watch. Simone’s Yurchenko double pike. Is she going for it, and does her podium training performance encourage her to do it at other points in the competition?

Bars and Beam: How often/comfortably is Lee getting her 6.8 D score on bars? Will it be Chiles or McCallum for the third team final spot on beam? Does it look like Carey and Skinner will elect to do all four events in qualification?

Continue reading US Women’s Olympic Podium Training →