Today’s the day we name another Olympic team.

Now more than ever:

What started as 16 qualifiers is now 13 gymnasts left in contention following the injuries to Skye Blakely, Kayla DiCello, and Shilese Jones—three of the seven major contenders to make the team heading into the competition.

That means we’re left with four major contenders—Simone Biles, Suni Lee, Jade Carey, Jordan Chiles—and a fifth random lottery win of an Olympic spot that’s wide open to be won by someone who really wasn’t in serious contention until about 11 seconds ago. I know who I’m picking.

Following the first day of competition—among those athletes who are still in the mix—the highest-scoring team would be Biles, Lee, Carey, Chiles, and Tiana Sumanasekera on 173.000. That’s Sumanasekera in by .025 over current 5th-place AAer Josc Roberson. Teams including Leanne Wong, Hezly Rivera, and Kaliya Lincoln are all less than 4 tenths behind.

Chiles and Carey have not necessarily run away from the pack too far, though they’ll be considered expected team members until something tells us otherwise today. I’m not betting the entire family farm on it, but it’s certainly the most likely outcome. If we assume Biles, Lee, Chiles, Carey, then here’s where we stand with the others.

Tiana Sumanasekera — A beam race suits her. If you’re happy locking in Biles, Carey, Chiles as your three on vault and floor, Biles, Lee, Chiles as your three on bars, and Biles and Lee on beam, then you’re just looking for a beamer. Sumanasekera was 2nd to Lee on beam on day 1.

Joscelyn Roberson – Though she’s not as known for beam, Roberson was only .025 behind Sumanasekera on beam on the first day. If she can keep something in that vicinity up, and then perhaps use her Cheng to gain a couple more valuable hundreths on the Chiles DTY, maybe jump ahead of someone on floor, you could very easily see her being on the trials highest-scoring team. She was also 5th AA on day 1, while Sumanasekera was 9th, and we know how much USAG loves AA.

Hezly Rivera – What the selection process in 2023 taught us—with selecting Leanne Wong for the team rather than Kaliya Lincoln (who made up the higher-scoring team but was a riskier prospect for apparatus coverage)—is that having backups for backups for backups for backups is a significant consideration. Rivera has the beam to win a beam race (her 14.100 from nationals day 2 is the peak beam among the contenders), but she also has a very usable backup bars. If the selection committee is concerned about putting Jade Carey on the same team as a weaker bars gymnast like Sumanasekera, Roberson, or Lincoln for fear of what happens if Biles, Lee, or Chiles get injured, then Rivera is the pick.

Leanne Wong – Wong’s event coverage argument from 2023 remains, though lower scores on beam and floor on day 1 have dented it compared to other athletes. It may now be the Cheng—which beat the Roberson Cheng and the Chiles DTY on day 1—that presents the best team-score argument for her.

Kaliya Lincoln – Lincoln’s floor scored 14.150 on day 1, ahead of Chiles and Carey, and that was with a major deduction on her final pass. Especially if people are losing their minds on beam today with an Olympic spot on the line, Lincoln’s floor could end up being the thing that augments the team score the most.

They didn’t do any adjusting to the rotation groups with all the injuries, so we’re going to have one really big rotation group with all the WCCs, and one that’s done in 15 seconds.

Rotation 1

Sumanasekera – VT – very solid DTY, only small movement, some leg crossing. 14.350, up two tenths on day 1.

Rivera – UB – weiler 1/2 – toe full to stalder shap to ricna, hit – pak – maloney, some leg break into tkatchev, solid – 1/2 turn on high – FTDT, step back. Solid hit. 14.300, also up on day 1.

Roberson – VT – Cheng is hit, step back, and then momentum takes her for an additional step back, leg crossing, but chest up fairly well. 14.500 is a big deal score for that Cheng. Ahead of Sumanasekera and could give her a little edge there.

Roberson VT 2 – DTY, deeper, gets it around, bounce back and then another hop salute

Rose – UB – stalder full, late but hits it – maloney to clear hip to Ray, nice height on Ray – stalder 1/2 to yezhova – van leeuwen, legs together well – DLO, holds the stick. Good one.

Lowe – VT – Y1.5, hits it, medium hop forward and some knees. 13.675

Wong – UB – clear hip 1/2 to jaeger, nice – toe full to bhardwaj, hit with Owen in the way – maloney to pak, smooth – van leeuwen, hit – DLO, lovely, little hop back. 13.900

Chiles – VT – DTY, good height, little leg crossing, bounce back but not too large – should go up on day 1 score. 14.500, prevents Roberson from using vault to gain anything on a team total.

Chiles – VT  2- Lopez is clean, comfortable for her, good leg form, medium bounce back

That’s part 1 of rotation 1. Most significant development there was Chiles matching Roberson’s vault total on both days. Rivera reached her top bars score of the process, a 14.300, which is also better than Chiles’ day 1 bars total, presenting a chance for a bars case for her.

Molomo – VT – Y1.5, good height, medium hop forward, solid overall. 13.850

Lincoln – UB – weiler 1/2, gets through it, small pause but finishes vertical  – stalder full – stalder shap to tkatchev, high, foot flexing – Ray to pak, hit, straddle in the pak – toe on to van leeuwen – short hs on high – FTDT, nearly stuck, small movement and some chest position. 13.450

Carey – VT 1 – Cheng, hits with a medium bounce back – large straddle on her block, usual form moments. 14.675, she’ll retain the vault advantage.

Carey VT 2 – Amanar, very short, just does save it to her feet, large lunge back and a stagger to avoid the fall

Lee – UB – Nabieva to bhardwaj, hit – van leeuwen – jaeger to pak to maloney to gienger, smoothly done – giant full – FTDT, stuck landing. That’ll work. 14.875.

Biles – VT – YDP, large stumble back this time, several large lunges right to the end of the mat, so not a fall but maximum landing deductions. 15.500. 9.100 E is friendly with 8 tenths in landing deductions.

Caylor – VT – DTY, gets it around, some pike throughout, hop back. 13.900

After 1:
Biles – 74.400
Chiles and Lee – 70.900
Carey – 70.500
Roberson 69.975

It will get real when we start seeing beam routines, which we will in rotation 2.

Rotation 2

Lowe leads off bars and is through a hit, FTDT chest down with a bounce forward. 12.875

Rose – BB – switch mount, switch to split to back tuck, small check, gets the combo – wolf double, smooth – bhs loso bhs, secure – side aerial, hit – aerial – 2.5 dismount, a little under with a crossover step. 13.375

Chiles – UB – van leeuwen, solid, legs together – blind to piked jaeger, solid – toe fuill with some pike position – tkatchev piked to pak, clean, legs together – maloney to gienger, solid – FTDT, hop back. Good. 14.200

Wong – BB – switch, nice – switch to switch 1/2, a little tight but secure – switch ring, wobble with an arm wave – bhs loso, secure, chest down position – wolf double, hit – aerial to split jump to straddle, hit, little bounce back at the end – side somi, good control – 2.5 dismount, gets it, lots of leg crossing, hop to the side. 13.650

So, a 14.225 trials average for Chiles on bars will keep her ahead of Rivera’s 14.1625 average, but it’s close.

Molomo survives her double front bars dismount today with a large lunge forward. 12.550

Lincoln – BB – switch mount, hit – switch 1/2, great split position but large break, leg up to horizontal – bhs layout 2 feet, hits it – aerial to split to straddle, good straddle position – wolf triple, solid – side aerial, hit, check – switch – bhs bhs double pike, lovely, step back. One large break but a good one. 13.175

Carey – UB – toe on to bhardwaj, hit, some leg crossing – maloney to gienger, hit, lowish – yezhova – van leeuwen, some legs – short hs on high – struggles through her giant 1/2 but gets through it, pause and form break – FTDT, good control. 13.075

Paul Juda and Sarah Korngold in conversation. If those walls could talk.

Roethlishberger talking about this “house of horrors” competition as Jordan Chiles hams it up in the background.

That rock on Alicia’s finger is the fifth member of the team.

Biles – UB – weiler 12/ to maloney, large leg break – to giant full to tkatchev piked to pak, hit – van leeuwen, some legs – better handstand position on high – toe full to double double tuck, little hop. 14.200

Lee – BB – loso mount and falls, whyyyy – aerial to split to bhs, smooth – wolf triple, nice – switch, pause before switch 1/2, pause before split ring jump, good elements but fighting it in combination – side aerial to loso loso and another huge break, grabs the beam – switch ring, leg up wobble – gainer full dismount, hop.

Could have a very big influence when we talk about highest-scoring team. Her problems and Simone’s on the first day influence how significant the beam routines appear from others.

Caylor – UB – toe full to maloney, good leg position, connected to pak – van leeuwen – stalder – blind to front giant to jaeger, hit – DLO, step back. 13.275

12.825 for Suni.

Rivera – BB – wolf double, nice – side aerial, hit – bhs loso, check – switch, little pause before switch 1/2, under split but secure, to korbut – aerial, little hesitations again into split and straddle, hit elements, just tight – switch ring, holds it, little check – bhs bhs double pike, chest down but more control today, little step. Big deal routine.

Sumanasekera – UB – Maloeny to pak, hit – van leeuwen, small leg break – toe 1/2 to front giant to jaeger, hit with feet form – giant 1/2, short – FTDT, step back

Rivera gets 14.275 on beam. Big. Her trials average on beam is now 13.9375, putting the pressure on Sumanasekera and Roberson.

Roberson – BB – clear hip shapo, some legs – to clear hip 1/2, little pause – to yezhova, small leg separation – toe full, past – maloney to gienger, catches – DLO 1/1, hop forward. 13.025

Rivera moves ahead of Roberson by 4 tenths in the AA after that rotation and is in very good position for team score now.

Rotation 3

Molomo – BB – switch – wolf double, gets it – side aerial to loso, secure with knee position in the loso – finishes a hit with a double tuck dismount, hop forward. 13.200

Wong – FX – wolf double, good – popa, around – double double tuck, a bit short but gets it, hop to the side – DLO, short, slide forward – switch ring to split leap full – back 1/2 to front full, under with a shuffle back – doubel pike, nice control. 13.625

Carey – BB – front roll mount – aerial to split to korbut – bhs loso, secure landing – switch side, short back leg – switch to switch 1/2 to straddle, secure – side aerial, hit – bhs bhs double pike, step back. 13.625

Is Jade’s mom Vanessa Atler?

Lincoln – FX – DLO 1/1, great height and position, hop to the side – DLO, great, small slide – switch ring to split full, around – wolf triple, good – switch full, real, hops on landing – front full to doubel tuck, bounce back both feet out of bounds.

Biles – BB – switch mount, gets it into switch 1/2 back pike today, little bounce back – wolf triple, nice – aerial to split to straddle secure – bhs los loso, holds securely even though chest was a little forward – side aerial, huge break and falls – it was perfect until then – bhs bhs FTDT, bounce back. 13.900

Simone and Suni are like, we’re not carrying all your asses through Paris, who’s stepping up?

Lee – FX – DLO 1/1, hit, good control – switch ring to split leap full, scoots feet around a little – back 1.5 to front full, a bit under and a shuffle on landing – double l turn, gets her two turns around – wolf triple, hit – double tuck, bounce back. 13.850

Caylor – BB – switch mount, hit – bhs loso loso, secure landing – switch, pause – switch 1/2, way way under with a large break, step back – aerial to split to korbut, connected – side aerial, hit – split and wolf – bhs bhs double pike, chest down, lunge forward. 12.425

Sumanasekera – BB – candle mount – bhs bhs lay 2 feet, secure – aerial to split to korbut, good connection – switch to switch 1/2, arm wave correction – side aerial, arm check – sissone to wolf – bhs bhs doubel pike, two steps back. But a good one, did what she could do. Just 13.950, but that means she’ll be slightly ahead of Rivera on two-day trials average, if they care.

Rivera – FX – DLO 1/1, bounce back, two little hops – DLO, bounce back – switch ring to switch full to knee – wolf double – front tuck through to double tuck, hop – split full – 2.5 with a stumble, a couple lunges forward

Roberson – BB – back tuck full, secure, chest down – switch to switch 1/2 to back tuck, pause before back tuck and an arm wave at the end – side aerial loso loso is secure – onodi, pause before straddle and pike – double pike, step back. Good one. 14.050 gives her the 2-day average beam advantage over Sumanasekera and Rivera

Rose – FX – back 1.5 to front 2/1, hits it with a lunge – whip to double tuck, little hop – split leap full – wolf triple, around – back 2.5 to front tuck, leg crossing, controls it. 13.375

Lowe – BB – switch mount, hit – side aerial to loso, step back, hits it, some soft knee – switch to switch side – aerial, little pause before korbut – big arm wave on side somi – double tuck dismount, hit with bounce back

Chiles – BB – front pike mount, keeps it on with a leg up wobble – bhs loso, large break and can’t save it, falls – you guys – aerial, pause before straddle to bhs – side somi, hit – switch, leans through to sissone to wolf – side aerial – switch side – double pike dismount, step back.

Between Rivera being so close to Chiles on bars and this miss, Chiles is reallllly relying on floor at this point.

12.225 ouch.

Chiles retains the slight AA edge on Carey, Roberson, Rivera but that one is close now.

Rotation 4

Biles – FX – triple double bounce back, keeps it in – front full to double double tuck, steps back OOB – switch to split leap 1.5, around – wolf 2.25 – Biles, gets it connected to stag – switch full – DLO, easy near stick. 14.725

Lincoln – VT – good height on DTY, pretty big bounce back. 14.250

Caylor FX – DLO, short, hop forward – double pike, chest forward, hop – wolf double – switch ring, not quite there on the back leg – split full – back 1.5 to front full, gets it to her feet with a crossover step – double y, nice y position – double tuck, bounce back. 12.425

Suni being held for actual ever on vault.

Lee – VT – DTY, hits it, medium bounce back

Sumanasekera – FX – DLO 1/1, some pike, hop forward – DLO, little movement back, nice one – switch ring to split leap full, around – wolf double – back 1.5 to front full, crossed legs, step forward – switch 1/2 – double pike, good landing. She did what she could possibly do today. 13.725, though it would be a bit higher.

Rivera – VT – DTY, much better, little bounce back. 14.200

Roberson – FX – Moors is very good, stuck it, just some pike – DLO 1/1, nearly stuck, small slide back – leg up hop full – split leap 1.5, under rotated – DLO, bounce back , just does stay in – wolf triple, around for credit – front loso to double tuck, step back. Wellllllll. I think that was better than her 13.925 from day 1. But the score is the same, 13.925.

That will see Roberson finish slightly behind Rivera AA.

Lowe – FX – double arabian with a hop forward  – 1.5 to front lay, solid layout, hit with a hop forward – wolf double – double pike, step back OOB – double tuck, nice stick. 12.825

Rose – VT – Y1.5, medium lunge forward. 13.575

Chiles – FX – DLO 1/1, good, little hop back – front full to FTDT, bounce back, looked OOB to me but no flag goes up – wolf triple, actually like 3.5 – switch – split leap 1.5, about a quarter under but one of her closer rotations – DLO, little hop back. Hit the routine she needed to hit. 14.100

Wong – VT – Cheng is hit, lands it deep, bounce back some knees – 14.500 is a big number.

Molomo – FX – DLO, bounce back – popa is nice and high – double pike, good control – switch – switch side 1/2 – wolf double – front full, under control – doubel tuck, bounce back. 12.950

Wong hits DTY second vault, pretty big lunge back

That 14.100 from Chiles will put her 3rd AA.

Carey – FX – Moors, hits it, little hop, bit of knees – DLO 1/1, steps back OOB – switch – switch 1/1 to popa, a little crooked in the popa split – double double tuck, solid, little bounce back – split leap full – front tuck through to double tuck, secure landing. 14.150

The most interesting thing to me that happened here is that, using trials average, the Biles, Lee, Carey, Rivera, Roberson team has a very ever so slight edge on the Biles, Lee, Carey, Rivera, Chiles team. But that’s also because of beam, and beam got weird in a way you wouldn’t expect at the Olympics. Chiles, however, has the slight edge on Roberson when you take the better of the two days. 

FINAL:
Biles 117.225
Lee 111.675
Chiles 111.425
Carey 111.350
Rivera 111.150

Have to imagine that’s the team. Using best of the trials days, as well as the men’s methods—average across nationals and trials, and best 3 of 4 across nationals and trials—you also get the same team as the top five AA, which is exactly what the selection committee was looking for.

And now we wait.

And that’s the team: Biles, Lee, Chiles, Carey, Rivera. It’s the team that makes the most logical sense of those available, and most of the ways you slice it, they’re also the highest-scoring group. Honestly, they probably just went AA standings, but there’s more cover for that being justified as also the highest-scoring team than there was in 2021.

I mean, if I’m Roberson I’m still definitely suing, but this is the team that got it over the four days.

Alternates: Roberson, Wong. Also just the AA standings. Sucks for Tiana, but you wouldn’t want both Roberson and Tiana as traveling alternates if something happened on bars, so Wong makes more sense there. 

Presumably Sumanasekera and Lincoln will be the non-traveling alts.