The Oregon State Regional

Regional Draw

Corvallis, Oregon
Semifinal #1Semifinal #2
#5 Alabama#4 UCLA
#12 Utah#13 Minnesota
#23 Denver#19 Iowa
#25 Oregon StateSJSUWashington
Seeding-Projected Final
UCLA
Alabama
Utah
Minnesota

Schedule

April 2, 2:00pm PT – San Jose v Washington Play-in
April 3, 1:00pm PT – Semifinal #1
April 3, 7:00pm PT – Semifinal #2
April 5, 5:00pm PT – Final

What’s Her Story?

Her story is that UCLA, Alabama, and Utah. The end. Miserably ever after. These three teams account for an exact 50% off all the NCAA team titles won since the concept of women began in 1982, and they’re all going to walk into the same regional. And only two of them can walk out. And the rankings tell us the one to be eliminated is Utah. And Utah has never failed to advance to nationals (NCAA or AIAW) in its entire history, a 50-year streak. So it’s a thing.

The easy-but-true analysis is that these are three very strong teams, none of whom are anywhere in the vicinity of “safe,” and it won’t take more than a couple wobbles or non-sticks to send any one of them out. Or any two of them. Because while theoretical spoiler Minnesota got the most devilish of draws by getting lumped with three of the legendary four teams, they are still a very 197-able squad that should keep everyone else honest.

Is there a favorite? The overall season tells us Utah would be the odd team out, but recent scores tell us Alabama, ranked 4th in the country up until last week, is actually in the most trouble since team averages for the last month of meets have UCLA at 197.669, Utah at 197.481, and Alabama at 197.306.

What’s Her Semifinal Story?

SEMIFINAL #1
NQSHighLow
[5] Alabama197.498197.950197.125
[12] Utah197.075198.025195.725
[23] Denver196.383197.075195.175
[25] Oregon St195.106197.250194.525

Oh, hey Oregon State, you wanted to host regionals? Congratulations, here is the hardest semifinal possible. Denver and Oregon State definitely got the dud regionals draw this year as it’s going to be extremely difficult to knock out Alabama or Utah before the big regional final showdown. Denver does, however, outrank Utah on floor, which could signal the possible way in. We’ve seen Utah be too depleted at times this year to cobble together a hit-able six on floor and, even en route to a massive floor score last week, had to drop a miss at Big 12s.

SEMIFINAL #2
NQSHighLow
[4] UCLA197.540198.150196.950
[13] Minnesota196.842197.825195.075
[19] Iowa196.473197.225194.825
SJSU/
Washington
195.725
195.420
196.350
196.575
194.675
193.575

Iowa is 0-4 against Minnesota this season, which doesn’t speak super rosily about their chance to snatch an upset in this semifinal, but this has been a record-breaking season for Iowa featuring the highest team score in history. A 197 is more realistic now than it has been before, and that’s an upset-level score.

Big Tens did produce the closest margin of the season between the two teams as Iowa went 196.700 to win session 2 before Minnesota put up 196.900 in session 3. Of course, that was with Minnesota counting a fall on beam in what was otherwise looking like a mid-197, a score that Iowa has not reached this year.

Individual Qualification

For those who do not make nationals with a team, one AAer and one gymnast on each apparatus also advance.

All-Around

The national rankings for the all-arounders in the Oregon State regional

NameTeamNQS
2Jordan ChilesUCLA39.785
3Avery NeffUtah39.670
8Gabby GladieuxAlabama39.550
13Aurelie TranIowa39.470
15Arianna OstrumMinnesota39.415
18Tiana SumanasekeraUCLA39.405
24Sophia EspositoOregon St39.380
25Sophie SchrieverIowa39.365
29Sydney TurnerIowa39.305
29Amelia MoneymakerUC Davis39.305
29Ella ZirbesUtah39.305
33Cecilia CooleyDenver39.295
39Maddison ReidenbachDenver39.240
40McKenna SmithUtah39.235
48Kristin LinUW39.125
52Sophie PattersonSan Jose St39.075

This regional was the bad one to get if you have individual qualification aspirations. With Chiles, Neff, and Gladieux, all three biggest team contenders also have a top all-arounder who can go through if they don’t make it as a team, as well as an execution queen backup for their top all-arounder (Sumanasekera, Zirbes, LaCoursiere), and that’s before even getting into Aurelie Tran, Arianna Ostrum, and Sophia Esposito, all of whom would be strong picks in most regionals.

Event Top 10s

Projecting individual event qualifiers to nationals is notoriously impossible, so here we go with the top 10 ranked gymnasts in the regional on each event.

VAULT

NameTeamNQS
3Jordan ChilesUCLA9.950
7Azaraya Ra-AkbarAlabama9.930
8Avery NeffUtah9.925
11Makenna SmithUtah9.915
14Arianna OstrumMinnesota9.910
14Ella ZirbesUtah9.910
25Ashley GlynnUtah9.895
30Jordyn ParadiseAlabama9.890
40Ashlee SullivanUCLA9.880
40Tiana SumanasekeraUCLA9.880

Um…whoever sticks a Yurchenko 1.5? Vault presents a solid opportunity for Arianna Ostrum, who has a 10 this year, if she gets elbowed out of the way in the all-around.

BARS

NameTeamNQS
1Chloe LaCoursiereAlabama9.965
2Azaraya Ra-AkbarAlabama9.960
4Jordan ChilesUCLA9.950
12Avery NeffUtah9.935
15Ana PadurariuUtah9.925
15Ella ZirbesUtah9.925
15Aurelie TranIowa9.925
20Jordyn LydenMinnesota9.920
33Emma SlevinMinnesota9.905
47Lilly TubbsWashington9.895

LaCoursiere and Ra-Akbar will be tough to beat if Alabama doesn’t advance, and Avery Neff will be tough to beat if they do, but Aurelie Tran and Jordyn Lyden are very capable of getting right in there as well. Do I hear a 9-way tie on 9.950????

BEAM

NameTeamNQS
4Jordan ChilesUCLA9.955
5Ciena AlipioUCLA9.950
11Avery NeffUtah9.935
13Kylee KwammeAlabama9.930
17Tiana SumansekeraUCLA9.920
20Camie WingerUtah9.915
23Cecilia CooleyDenver9.910
23Jordyn LydenMinnesota9.910
31Chloe LaCoursiereAlabama9.900
37Abbi RyssmanUtah9.895
37Sarah MorawMinnesota9.895

[Puts on smart-guy glasses] Minnesota intentionally picked to start on floor so that they could end on beam in the second semifinal and take advantage of rising scores to get an individual beam qualifier to nationals.

FLOOR

NameTeamNQS
1Jordan ChilesUCLA9.995
5Gabby GladieuxAlabama9.955
11Makenna SmithUtah9.935
11Azaraya Ra-AkbarAlabama9.935
11Ella ZirbesUtah9.935
18Jamison SearsAlabama9.930
18Ashlee SullivanUCLA9.930
18Cecilia CooleyDenver9.930
30Arianna OstrumMinnesota9.920
35Sophia EspositoOregon St9.915

Gabby Gladieux and Makenna Smith have both been extremely consistent with the 9.9+ scores (Gladieux with 8 straight, Smith with 6 straight), so you’d lean toward their chances to replicate that even if it doesn’t end up being a great day for the whole team.

Team Score Trackers

Each gymnast from the conference championship lineup is listed with her NQS on that apparatus (or average if she doesn’t have an NQS), followed by what the 5-count total for the event would be using these scores.

Because the individual NQS system still uses the old method of dropping all the bad ones, these totals are very much better-case-scenario scores. What does it look like if everyone is a perfect princess who has never done anything wrong all at the exact same time?

Semifinal #1

#5 ALABAMA
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Ra-Akbar
9.930
LaCoursiere
9.965
Kvamme
9.930
Gladieux
9.955
Paradise
9.890
Ra-Akbar
9.960
LaCoursiere
9.900
Ra-Akbar
9.935
Gladieux
9.870
Fuller
9.890
Gladieux
9.885
Sears
9.930
Sears
9.825
Pawlak
9.885
Ladanyi
9.880
LaCoursiere
9.900
Kwamme
9.825
Walker
9.880
Fuller
9.850
Matters
9.885
LaCoursiere
9.792
Gladieux
9.875
Birt
9.756
Rybicki
9.885
49.34049.58049.44549.605
197.970
#12 UTAH
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Neff
9.925
Neff
9.935
Neff
9.935
Smith
9.935
Smith
9.915
Zirbes
9.925
Winger
9.915
Zirbes
9.935
Zirbes
9.910
Padurariu
9.925
Ryssman
9.895
Neff
9.910
Glynn
9.895
Smith
9.875
Gantner
9.865
Curtis
9.880
Johnson
9.870
Ryssman
9.870
Zirbes
9.670
Johnson
9.790
Winger
9.850
Glynn
9.742
Smith
9.660
Glynn
9.705
49.51549.53049.28049.450
197.775
#23 DENVER
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Bhatia
9.860
Cooley
9.865
Cooley
9.915
Cooley
9.930
Reidenbach
9.850
Rorich
9.860
Reidenbach
9.850
Reidenbach
9.895
Brusch
9.845
Brusch
9.825
Aamold
9.830
Bhatia
9.890
Hargraves
9.815
Bhatia
9.820
Gallen
9.785
Hargraves
9.870
Hewitt
9.815
Kastl
9.805
Hargraves
9.780
Rorich
9.870
Kasparian
9.815
Reidenbach
9.795
Steeley
9.715
Gallen
9.865
49.18549.17549.16049.455
196.975
#25 OREGON STATE
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Bucknor
9.860
Weaver
9.885
Letzsch
9.865
Esposito
9.915
Esposito
9.855
Esposito
9.855
Cheek
9.845
Weaver
9.875
Crabb
9.795
Richardson
9.850
Esposito
9.835
Miller
9.870
Richardson
9.790
Caso
9.815
Heather
9.815
Marchal
9.860
Miller
9.770
Miller
9.790
Bucknor
9.805
Buckner
9.830
Marchal
9.730
DeVries
9.715
Weaver
9.805
DeVries
9.720
49.07049.19549.16549.350
196.780

Semifinal #2

#4 UCLA
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Chiles
9.950
Chiles
9.950
Chiles
9.955
Chiles
9.995
Sullivan
9.880
Sullivan
9.895
Alipio
9.950
Sullivan
9.930
Sumanasekera
9.880
Matthews
9.885
Sumanasekera
9.920
Sumanasekera
9.905
Jenkins
9.870
Barros
9.885
Rosen
9.865
Barros
9.885
Rosen
9.855
Sumanasekera
9.860
Barros
9.865
Alipio
9.860
Webster-Longin
9.837
Webster-Longin
9.860
Webster-Longin
9.820
Webster-Longin
9.825
49.43549.47549.55549.575
198.040
#13 MINNESOTA
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Ostrum
9.910
Lyden
9.920
Lyden
9.910
Ostrum
9.920
Crump
9.875
Slevin
9.905
Moraw
9.895
Lyden
9.910
Gerdes
9.855
Saltzmann
9.855
Rowray
9.890
Swartzmiller
9.890
Moraw
9.840
Gerdes
9.845
Pearl
9.875
Gonsiorowski
9.885
Stewart
9.835
Crump
9.805
Ostrum
9.875
Saltzmann
9.870
Slevin
9.765
Ostrum
9.775
Stewart
9.840
Gerdes
9.735
49.31549.33049.44549.475
197.565
#19 IOWA
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Tran
9.860
Tran
9.925
Turner
9.890
Henderson
9.890
Henderson
9.855
Bowles
9.880
Tran
9.860
Schriever
9.880
Schriever
9.850
Masella
9.875
Schriever
9.830
Tran
9.860
Turner
9.830
Schriever
9.855
Ball
9.815
Turner
9.845
DePaola
9.790
Turner
9.835
Rojas
9.750
DePaola
9.825
Masella
9.765
Henderson
9.790
Tyson
9.750
Tyson
9.810
49.18549.37049.14549.300
197.000
#29 SAN JOSE STATE
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Jurries
9.870
Macasu
9.865
Patterson
9.850
Larson
9.860
Pitts
9.850
Jurries
9.815
Ashton
9.825
Johnson
9.845
Patterson
9.835
Kisch
9.800
PeBenito
9.825
Jurries
9.820
Johnson
9.810
PeBenito
9.775
Valuch
9.785
PeBenito
9.810
Valuch
9.785
Valuch
9.760
Macasu
9.785
Ashton
9.800
Macasu
9.755
Patterson
9.745
Reardon
9.438
Patterson
9.780
49.15049.01549.07049.135
196.370
#35 WASHINGTON
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Tubbs
9.830
Tubbs
9.895
Hallinan
9.890
McWilliams
9.875
Bolden
9.820
Moody
9.845
Tubbs
9.870
Lin
9.860
McDonough
9.810
McDonough
9.820
Moody
9.855
Bolden
9.845
Schaffer
9.780
Lin
9.775
Lin
9.840
Hallinan
9.805
Lin
9.775
Oppegard
9.765
Navarro
9.820
Schaffer
9.771
Navarro
9.742
McWilliams
9.735
Oppegard
9.820
Navarro
9.467
49.01549.10049.27549.156
196.466


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