If the 4, 5, and 6 seeds in the first semifinal have to manage the pressure of producing a season-best performance while also hoping for a little bit of help, the 1, 2, and 3 seeds have to manage the pressure of a sparkling Super Six opportunity, which may be even more difficult. For these three seeds, given this draw and what they have done so far, anything less than Super Six will make this a disappointing season.

Viewing the twelve nationals competitors as a whole, Georgia and LSU would not necessarily have seemed destined to make Super Six or have had their names associated with the word “lock,” but the draw has thrust both into the position of being top teams, and it has been several years since either has confidently claimed that status. Georgia found itself in a similar position last year, a clear favorite to advance out of the softer semifinal, and crumbled on beam. This semifinal this year will largely hinge on how well Georgia and LSU avoid the crumble. 

But first, the team everyone agrees should make it out of the first day rather comfortably.

Florida

For the Gators, perhaps alone in this semifinal, the focus must be on winning the title instead of simply advancing. Making Super Six should be routine for this team and would not be considered an accomplishment. As with any team, the possibility of missing still remains, but it would take an implosion, not just an off meet. This Gator team has little recent precedent for implosion, so “what Florida must do to advance” is not a topic interesting enough to be worth addressing. 

What Florida must do to win the championship is much more relevant. Even though this team is more talented than last year’s team, the scenario is, in many ways, similar. The Gators must land perfectly to win the title, especially on vault and floor. While the attention from Super Six last year often goes to Florida’s landings on floor in that last rotation, which did not match Alabama’s beam performance, vault was the single biggest deficit for the Gators, not floor. They did not vault poorly, but they opened with two 9.850s and finished with an uncharacteristic 9.850 from Hunter. Hunter’s normal vault is a tenth better than that, which made the difference between first and second.

This year’s Florida team has improved on vault because of the introduction of Sloan and the reintroduction of Macko to the lineup, now boasting five clear 9.9-capable routines. No one other than Kytra, however, can hope to go higher than a 9.900 without a stick, so control on the landings is paramount for winning a championship. Few teams vaulted up to potential on regionals day, when Florida posted the nation’s highest score on the event, but we can expect the standard to be much higher at nationals. Because of the advantage on bars, where no one has nearly as many 9.9s as Florida, staying even with the other top teams will be good enough on vault, but doing so will likely require three out of four stuck landings from the middle pack of Johnson, Sloan, King, and Dickerson.   

Detour: Marissa King’s vault is in interesting case. It’s stellar, obviously, and ranks among my favorite pieces of gymnastics being done in NCAA right now, but the scoring is tricky. In the press conference, Gymcastic asked a good question about the vault that elicited a detailed and thoughtful response (In gymnastics? Well, I never!) from Rhonda. I agree with Rhonda here. King’s amplitude is lower than what we would see for the best Yfulls, but hers is not a disproportionately low vault. If it were, she wouldn’t be able to complete the 1.5 twists so comfortably. I will add, though, that because of the complexity of the vault, the comparative lack of amplitude, and the forward landing, it lends itself to larger landing faults. When she doesn’t quite stick the vault, she is often hopping forward/sideward with both legs, incurring larger deductions than a dainty, controlled step out of a Yfull would receive. It’s a challenge for her to keep the vault in the 9.9 range when she doesn’t stick, even when the judges are happy with everything else.

While there is reason to be concerned about every team on beam because it’s beam, Florida has among the fewest built-in deductions in the country and should feel rather comfortable after some early-season issues. King came in flawlessly for Stageberg at regionals and has actually upgraded the scoring potential for the team. Ideally, both would have been in the lineup, but I was a bit surprised that the team gave up on King’s potential score so early in the season. She must really have been struggling with consistency in training. They are better for having her in the lineup. I’ll also be paying close attention to Sloan, especially on the first day. In her younger days, Bridget Sloan had a bit of a history of falling on the first day of a two-day competition and hitting on the second day. Is the curse gone? 

So far this postseason, the floor landings are a world better than they were last year when the Gators were getting all those 49.2s leading up to championships, which meant that the 49.400 from Super Six seemed like an improvement even though it was still well under potential. There are fewer reasons to be concerned about those landings given the parade of 49.500+ scores coming in over recent weeks. Having to use Bridgey Caquatto is a tad nerve-wracking since she has barely competed any hit routines this year, but it worked at regionals. They buried her at the back of the lineup because of that concern, but that’s not the ideal rotation order for nationals. Hunter needs to be anchoring and contending for 10s.

This is the Gators’ year to win the title. That’s not to say they can’t win in the coming years as well, but it’s going to get much harder. King and Dickerson have been hugely influential by being able to put up late-lineup routines on every event every week. They have been the constants. After this year, Florida will become more reliant on former US international elites with medical files that are veritable page-turners. Will they be able to absorb an injury like Johnson’s again or be so conservative with Macko’s legs next year without the stalwart King and Dickerson?

Georgia

For a team that hasn’t made Super Six since 2009, it’s impossible to look past this stage with any confidence. There have been too many recent collapses. If Durante can get the team to Super Six in her first year, she will be hailed as the savior of the program and should buy herself a few years of “things are back on track” goodwill.

Last year, the Gymdogs found themselves in a comfortable position in semifinals and could have even counted one beam fall and still contended for Super Six (it was the second counting fall that did it). Couple those memories with the early-season disasters on beam this year, and it’s hard to look anywhere past beam in evaluating Georgia’s chances. Georgia fans will have “please not again” face during the whole rotation. However, “fear the beam monster” is an overly simplistic evaluation of Georgia’s semifinal status. Those early beam issues were a strong, easy narrative that has been difficult to break down, but if you haven’t been paying attention, you might not know that beam has been Georgia’s best event for about a month now. The composition issues for Brittany Rogers are a distant memory (and Shayla is competing 9.9 routines every week now), but the unsung hero of that turnaround has been Sarah Persinger. She was a bundle of 9.7y nerves most of the early season, but now she is competing calm, clean, elegant gymnastics in the leadoff position and earned that 9.900 from regionals. That L turn of hers, you could serve it in a French restaurant. It’s beautiful. 

In fact, after a stellar opening to the year on the event, vault may now be the biggest scoring concern for Georgia. The performances at both SECs and regionals were marred by lackluster 49.2s on the event. If this semifinal gets tight, another 49.200 would be problematic given the strength of Florida, LSU, and Minnesota there. Georgia is a little too susceptible to finishing fourth or even fifth on vault and cannot afford a deficit that could be exploited if they have another slightly off rotation. The key vaults come from Rogers and Jay. Like Marissa King, they are a bit too likely to incur large landing deductions for their 1.5s when they don’t stick, and too often we have seen 9.850s from them. An anchor 9.850 is deadly when it comes down to the best teams. Both Jay and Rogers are capable of sticking and need to do so to keep the meet comfortable. If Noel Couch is able to go, an early stick from her would also do wonders in bumping up the scores for the rest of the rotation.

If the Gymdogs are to advance out of this semifinal, as I expect them to do, they will look to have something close to a 98.700-98.800 after the opening two events, bars and beam. If so, they should be home free. Minnesota also opens on bars and beam and is highly unlikely to match that number, which should give Georgia a little bit of a buffer if the Gophers close the gap on vault. A lead of .400 or so at the halfway point over Minnesota and Stanford will probably be unassailable. In order to achieve that, the bars landings must be in place. Georgia got the sticks from Rogers and Davis at the end of the lineup at regionals, but they need them earlier to avoid a 9.825 parade. Cheek and Tanella are very capable of sticking those dismounts and need to do so to keep the scores up.

LSU

Before the season began, I had LSU at #9 in my preseason rankings, and I thought I was being all cavalier and generous to this team that had been on the periphery of the conversation for several years. As it turns out, I probably underestimated them. At the time, I also said they were an acceptable bars rotation away from contending for Super Six. If regionals serves as any indication, that continues to be the case.

One of the reasons I feel more comfortable about LSU advancing to Super Six than I would have been even a few weeks ago (aside from the draw) is the beam performance from regionals. That was as well as LSU can do on beam, and if they have somehow figured out the event just in time, it takes so much pressure off the vault and floor rotations that have had to be phenomenal every time out to keep the scores high. However, a solid meet does not a trend make. I was very surprised that Garcia returned to the leadoff position after her struggles, and hers is still among several uncomfortable routines in this lineup. Of the top seeds in this session, LSU is the most likely to have to count a fall, so watch this rotation very carefully. The Tigers begin on beam, and this rotation more than any other will set the tone for the whole semifinal. A counting fall would blow everything open. Even a low 49 is probably workable because of vault and floor, but no team, regardless of two-event strength, should feel comfortable with two 49.000 rotations.

That’s the major concern for LSU because, at regionals, bars was the much greater problem. The Tigers were done a disservice with some disproportionately high scores on bars early in the season, which masked issues. These were not masked at regionals. Aside from Courville’s fall, these weren’t uncharacteristic or unusual performances. It’s what they’re doing every week. Standing alone, it’s a problem that will keep them from contending for the title, but coupled with a weak beam rotation, it’s a problem that could keep them from advancing. If beam is only OK, it will put a significant amount of pressure on bars to be more than 9.800y. If beam and bars are both 9.800 parades, LSU will be in danger of getting passed by a slow and steady 49.250 of a performance from the likes of Stanford. If LSU arrives at bars in the final rotation with work to do, that work will be done by Courville and Morrison. They are the 9.9 contenders in the bunch, and both need to achieve those scores to make up for the leg form breaks and missed handstands we will see at other points in the rotation.

I haven’t spent much time on LSU’s vault and floor rotations this season because they have been such consistent high scorers. We just expect them both to be 49.500 and carry the team. That is the most likely outcome again, but LSU has more pressure on those landings than any other team because they cannot make up for a lower score on other events. If they are tight and not landing comfortably, even to the tune of a 49.375, the Tigers may be in danger. OK landings and 9.875s will in no way cut it on those events. They need probably seven or eight combined 9.9s on those two events to be safely safe.

Over the next week, I’ll be providing hearty little capsules about each of the teams heading to National Championships, covering their strengths and weaknesses and their overall outlooks for the competition. Let’s begin with the lower three seeds from the first semifinal.

Today, Val did an interview with Sam Peszek (whose interviewing skills have skyrocketed this season) where she said there are no straightforward semifinals anymore. You mean except for the first one? Of course, anything can happen. That’s always true. However, this semifinal is in the hands of the top seeds, and I firmly believe that if Florida, Georgia, and LSU hit 24-for-24, they will advance to Super Six regardless of the other performances. Actually, Florida probably doesn’t even have to hit that well to be comfortable.

To change that presumed outcome, it will take a season best from Minnesota or Stanford mixed with an off meet from Georgia or LSU. This is quite possible, but it will take a confluence of events. It won’t be all on one team. The lower seeds will need help in the form of a sub-49 rotation or, more likely, a counting fall. This semifinal is still deep enough that Georgia and LSU should not be able to count falls and advance, at least hopefully. I never like to see a missed meet provide a ticket to Super Six. If the Gators are on 49.5s track again, they can probably count a 9.300 and be OK.

It wouldn’t be National Championships without a few crazy falls, though, so don’t take this session completely for granted. Assuming no falls, however, it should take a score into the lowish-midish 197s to advance to Super Six, so that is the standard on which we must evaluate all of the teams.  

[8] Minnesota

Since remaining a thing at such a late point in the season isn’t exactly the norm for the Gophers, they are free to take a moment to have some “Wheee! Nationals!” time, but only a moment. While I wouldn’t call it a likely outcome, this team has the potential to continue past semifinals and should not be content with simply making it to the big city full of big dreams.

The Gophers have not received an away 197 this season outside of Florida, where the only thing higher than Ryan Lochte is the bars scoring (Blamo!), so they still have to prove they are more than an upper-middle 196 team when being directly compared to all the best teams in the country by judges who should be picking apart routines to separate the bestest from the best. This is especially difficult because Minnesota does not have the reputation of the perennial contenders, and whether we like it or not, that is a factor.

Part of proving that they are a 197 team at nationals will be showing that they are more than a one-way monkey with vault. Minnesota is brilliant with the vaulting, and those Yfulls at the end of the lineup from regionals will challenge any team in the country in both form and landing. To have any shot at advancing, the entire lineup must vault with equivalent excellence next weekend. The other strength should be floor, but there were a few too many uncontrolled landings at regionals to warrant 9.9s. They’re probably going to need to be at least 49.300 on floor to keep within range because all the teams ranked above them should be going 49.400+. Georgia is the one doubt there, so Minnesota will be looking to pounce on them. 

The Gophers get through beam, and it’s never going to be a major scorer. That’s fine for most of the season but becomes a problem once we get to the postseason, where even teams that struggle on beam like LSU are finding ways to squeeze out 49.3s. It’s not that Minnesota cannot afford a fall; they cannot afford wobbles or checks if they want to capitalize on another team’s mistakes. This is especially true because of the concerns I have about bars.

The 49.250 from regionals was far and away the strongest road bars score of the season, but in watching those routines back, I still see a lot of problem areas. The performances had a number of short handstands and issues of form throughout in addition to some composition choices as far as turning elements that will always incur deductions. I don’t care for half turns in general because they break the momentum without involving a challenging element, but in all but the very best hands, they are also deduction traps that rarely get completed in handstand. The dismount landings at regionals were strong overall and certainly helped bring the scores up. Sticks will be absolutely imperative.

Minnesota begins on bars, which could be a problem. The judges might not be feeling too charitable about the first routines they see in the whole competition. If the Gophers can get through bars and beam and reach the halfway point still in sight of Georgia Georgia (or bettering LSU on beam), then keep an eye out.

[9] Stanford
http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/vz8gcEXHYxc
Remember this? Nationals again, please.

While ranked lower, Stanford enters the competition from a position of greater strength than Minnesota. This is part perception/reputation and part talent-level. Stanford is always expected to reach this stage and peak at this stage, but at the same time, when hitting to capability, Stanford has more 9.9s in the lineup.

This team is somewhat the opposite of Minnesota on bars. At regionals, the routines were brilliant on the bars themselves and looked lovely and 9.900 until the dismounts, which were tenth-bleeders. Stanford has no business being not excellent on this event. Hong, Vaculik, and Shapiro should be consistently going into the stratosphere, but that has occurred far too infrequently this season. Hong and Shapiro both gave away significant ground with those landings at regionals, and since they have the highest scoring potential, the team cannot afford their being anything but excellent. Stanford certainly needs to be top three on bars in this session to feel comfortable.

To make up for that sluggish start on bars at regionals, Stanford received some gifts on vault. They certainly cannot expect to get another 9.900 from Rice for a vault with that degree of bounce back on landing, and I have to think that the 49.425 is an untenable pace. Ashley Morgan did, however, hit her Yhalf with much improved control over Pac-12s, which was vital in establishing the scoring pace and lifting up her teammates. At nationals, they cannot abide an “I’m flying” landing from her for a 9.700 because it stunts the scoring for the whole team. Hong and Dayton are the two realistic 9.9 possibilities in the lineup, and both must stick. While Stanford is unlikely to catch Florida, LSU, or Minnesota on vault, they must remain close enough to be able to pounce during the more Stanfordy events, bars and beam. If Georgia is missing those Y1.5 landings for 9.850s again, Stanford could even gain some ground with sticks at the back of the lineup. 

Beam must be the event. Stanford is far too talented on beam to have any business being in the bottom three here. They should be scoring right with any other team. Vaculik provided a big, big hit at regionals, and her overall sturdiness was the most important victory of that meet. A reliable hit from her is everything. Unfortunately, I think the team is impeded somewhat by the lineup composition, which has clearly been organized for sturdiness instead of scoring potential. Hong, Spinner, and Shona Morgan have the highest potential on the team, but they are all buried in the lineup, which hurts their 9.925ishness. Stanford finishes the meet on beam, which is a fairly good position for them, certainly better than it would be for some other teams.

And they may have quite some ground to pick up at the end of the meet after beginning on floor, their biggest obstacle. With all the injuries Stanford has suffered, they do not have enough depth to feel comfortable about the lineup at all. Hong and Shapiro are being relied upon for 9.875+ scores on an event that should be great for both but is the most troubling because of sturdiness and injury concerns. Ashley Morgan has been scoring 9.9s this year as usual, but she must be more than a 9.900 because the success of the rotation may be riding solely on her score.    

It’s going to be a tough battle, but Stanford has peaked at this point in the season before. After vault and floor, they probably need to be somewhere around 98.600 to stand a good chance of challenging with clean bars and beam rotations.

[12] Illinois
http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/PrUhYBq28E8

Like Minnesota, Illinois can also take a “Whee! Nationals!” moment, but honestly that moment can last quite a bit longer than Minnesota’s. It actually seems like it would be kind of fun to compete at nationals knowing it would require nothing short of an indoor blizzard during all the other beam rotations to get out of semifinal day, and that is largely the case for Illinois. Therefore, the Illini should be able to compete with complete relaxation and joy, but that doesn’t always happen. When Illinois made nationals in 2011, they had a roughly rough sub-48 on the beam with a leadoff fall from Alina Weinstein. How far she has come. She is the star of this team, and the rest of the gymnasts could seriously considering getting her a cake or a gold cape or a flying car or something as a thank you for taking them to nationals.

By and large, Illinois is a 196 team that was able to capitalize on the profound implosion by Nebraska on three events in order to slide into nationals. The regionals performance is about what we can expect from the Illini again at nationals with a few places for improvement. Bars can be .050s better here and there, and they clearly underperformed on floor with a fall from Fujinami and an unexpected 9.7 from See.

To be fair, in recent years a low 196 has managed to advance to Super Six. However, this is not one of those years. Not with the way we’ve been scoring. Illinois is not capable of the 197 it should take to advance.

Weinstein has a shot at placing in the top 10 in the AA and can possibly make FX finals as well as BB finals if that very strong, very important routine from regionals is any indication. I could also see See (I apologize) contending for floor finals if the qualifying score is 9.900, but I don’t think it will be with Florida and LSU likely bumping the cutoff to at least 9.925.

After a brief recovery from the coastal eddy that was regionals day, it’s time to refocus on what’s to come. I realize I never mentioned the individual qualifiers, so here they are:

AA
Sharaya Musser, Penn State; Lauren Rogers, Washington; Aubree Cristello, Arizona; Melanie Shaffer, Ohio State; Bri Guy, Auburn; Caitlin Atkinson, Auburn; Emily Wong, Nebraska; Jessie DeZiel, Nebraska; Moriah Martin, Denver, Michelle Shealy, Iowa State; Chelsea Tang, Oregon State; Brittany Harris, Oregon State

Events
VT – Brittany Skinner, Nebraska; BB – Sarah Miller, Ohio State; FX – Makayla Stambaugh, Oregon State

There are some serious contenders in that all-around group, especially Wong, DeZiel, and Musser. However, it is very difficult to score well in the AA without a team to build the numbers, and all three are competing in the first session, which makes it very unlikely that they will challenge. Last year, the top six AA finishers all came from the evening session. I’ll preview the AA at some point next week, but with Florida also in the first session, things are setting up quite well for a Zamarripa AA title at home as long as she performs better than she did at regionals.

But enough of that, on to the teams. After regionals, teams were ranked by National Qualifying Score (RQS + Regional score) and divided into semifinals with the 1,4,5,8,9,12 teams going into one session and the 2,3,6,7,10,11 teams going into the second session. It has resulted in a hilariously ill-balanced semifinal field.

The afternoon session, aka The SEC Silver Platter of Dreams and Unicorns:
[1] Florida, [4] Georgia, [5] LSU, [8] Minnesota, [9] Stanford, [12] Illinois

Florida, Georgia, and LSU will be heavily favored to advance. Of the bottom three, Stanford is the most dangerous. Much like the rest of the Pac-12, they are depleted to the point of scraping the bottom of the depth barrel, but if they can drop the substitute routines they need to drop, they have the most 9.9s of the bottom three teams and can get into the 197s.

The evening session, aka Run:
[2] Oklahoma, [3] Alabama, [6] UCLA, [7] Michigan, [10] Utah, [11] Arkansas

It’s anyone’s guess. Obviously, this will be a crazy exciting meet. I’ll preview it in depth soon, but the general consensus seems to be that Oklahoma, Alabama, and Michigan will be favored to advance. I’m not discounting the importance of UCLA’s home score or Michigan’s beam rotation yet, nor am I convinced that Oklahoma and Alabama are home free. When you get this many good teams together in the same place, it goes anywhere but normal. I smell a weird one. 

Rotation orders:
Session 1: Illinois (VT), Georgia (Bye), Minnesota (UB), LSU (BB), Stanford (Bye), Florida (FX)
Session 2: Arkansas (VT), Alabama (Bye), Michigan (UB), UCLA (BB), Utah (Bye), Oklahoma (FX)

-The Utes probably have it the roughest on the rotations because they may be forced to rely on a Georgia Dabritz beam hit if they are still in it going to the final routine. 
-I’m OK that the top seeds are ending on a bye because presumably (at least in the case of Florida) they should be qualifying and won’t be the most interesting team at the end.
-I actually like both LSU and UCLA starting on the beam. Ending on beam is way harder than starting there, and both teams probably need a scoring boost on bars that they might get by ending there.
-Ending on vault is a very good rotation for all the teams doing so (Georgia, Alabama, Minnesota, Michigan). All 49.500 capable.