The national championship starts tomorrow. Already. So disrespectful.

If you haven’t checked out my semifinal ramblings yet, here they are:
Semifinal #1
Semifinal #2

And the rotation order.

Before we get to what’s happening tomorrow, there’s also the matter of the regular NLI signing period (as opposed to the early period in November), which began yesterday. Mostly, this period is used to confirm what we already know, like Lizzy LeDuc’s switch to Illinois. The most significant announcement in terms of name recognition came from UCLA, as they confirmed the coup of seizing Kyla Ross from Stanford (deferring until after the Olympics, obviously), along with the signing of Katelyn Ohashi and Madison Preston for next season. Preston is a Cincinnati refugee who won the vault title in her division at JOs last year. Looking at the gaps that will reappear on vault next year without Peszek and Williams, and since Pua Hall’s vault is apparently MIA, anyone with a yfull as big as hers is a thing.

In other news, Georgia Dabritz won the AAI Award. It was a tough field this year, but Dabritz was probably always the favorite, having competed more regularly than some of the other competitors (like Peszek), being the biggest star on her team (unlike Hunter), and having the academic recognition to go along with it. She had narrative in her favor.

Now, let’s get to what we need for tomorrow.
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – Semifinal #1 (Live Video)
Florida, Utah, Michigan, UCLA, Georgia, Stanford

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Semifinal #2 (Live Video)
Oklahoma, LSU. Alabama, Auburn, Nebraska, Oregon State

These semifinals will be used to determine the six teams advancing to Super Six on Saturday (three teams from each), along with the national all-around champion and the competitors advancing to Sunday’s event finals. On each event, there will be a minimum of eight and a maximum of one trillion qualifiers because the top four people advance from each semifinal, and ties are not broken. That means when 24 people tie for 4th place on vault with a 9.900, they all go to event finals. It is hellish.

I don’t do any previewing or prognostication for event finals because the qualification is always nonsense. You might as well just pick four people out of a hat. The best people never qualify to event finals since it only takes a little step on landing to drop out of the top four. Example: Lloimincia Hall has never competed in the floor final. Which means she probably needs to make it this year.

I also refrained from doing a preview of the all-around because I learned my lesson last year when I basically said, “And then there are other people like Kim Jacob who DEFINITELY can’t win.” So go me. In my defense, it was a screwed-up day for the AAers and all the favorites had mistakes. This year, Bridget Sloan has to be pegged as the favorite now that she’s back to doing floor, but it’s not prohibitive since nothing is in the AA. If the winner isn’t Sloan, then we have to look to Courville, who is always the second-best SEC AAer, Dabritz now that she has joined the illustrious company of sudden senior beamers, Sam Peszek, Kytra Hunter, and Lindsay Mable as the likeliest contenders to get 39.7s. If the winning score falls down to the low 39.6s again, then about two dozen more people are suddenly in it. 

The two semifinals could not set up more differently in concept. We have that tangled mess of a first semifinal where anything and everything could and will happen, and then we have this one, which seems almost upsetting in its straightforwardness. Picking Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama to advance over Auburn, Nebraska, and Oregon State is just way too obvious. So it can’t actually happen, right? In a year where the top twelve seeds all advanced from regionals, I think college gymnastics owes it to us to make this semifinal more exciting than I think it’s going to be.

But, considering the results and scoring potential of the top three teams, I do think it’s going to take a major mistake to make any of them vulnerable. In terms of their qualification fights, the most fall-likely areas (ahem, beam) should be the biggest focus, but when it comes to a potential rematch the next day in Super Six, all of these teams have concerns of vague-to-severe magnitude. So let’s get into it.

OKLAHOMA

Among the many assets Oklahoma can boast, one of the most important is stability. This team doesn’t really fall. Of all the twelve schools going to nationals, it would be the most surprising to see the Sooners count a fall, which is why I would count them as the safest bet to make Super Six. They don’t have to be excellent in the semifinal to make it through, just the normal level of solid. Like all of the other top teams, Oklahoma was good-not-great at regionals, but they did still manage to record the best score in the country. A repeat of that performance would be more than enough.

As for Super Six, Oklahoma is a solid bet to win, but I don’t think either Oklahoma or Florida can claim to be the favorite going in. It’s not that kind of year. Both have issues that still need to be addressed, and neither has put together what I would consider an unstoppable performance yet. Oklahoma has not had major issues in the same way Florida did on beam at SECs or LSU has lately on bars. The Oklahoma problems are less “I’m afraid you’re going to get a 9.6” and more “I’m afraid you’re going to get a 9.825.” But in Super Six, those problems take on the same importance. If a major player gets a 9.825, she might as well be getting a 9.6. Or a 1.

Oklahoma’s biggest trouble spot has been bars. Over the last five consecutive meets, Oklahoma’s lowest score has come on bars each time. I didn’t necessarily see that coming before the season. With the addition of Dowell to replace Spears, and the rest of the lineup staying identical, I thought it would be a smooth transition on bars this season. But, there is some risk in the Dowell routine with the DLO 1/1 dismount (it’s really easy not to stick that thing and suddenly be at 9.875-9.900 while the rest of the bars anchors in the competition are at 9.950), and there have been enough small issues throughout the lineup with landings and angles to allow the scores to fall down to 9.850 for people who should be getting 9.900. Everyone in that bars lineup is capable of 9.900, so having zero 9.9s at regionals is a problem, even with the relatively tight bars scoring at that meet. I suppose this shouldn’t be as surprising as I think it is because the exact same thing happened last season. Oklahoma was suddenly getting weird 49.1s on bars and didn’t really work out the problem until Super Six, when the bars sticks finally showed up again. They’ll hope for an identical development this year. Maybe a day earlier this time?

The beam lineup is not a problem. It’s extremely reliable both for hits and for huge scores (though my one criticism is too many gainer full dismounts, which you know I hate because it makes great routines end with a whimper and seem pedestrian). I was also pleased to see Ali Jackson nail her 1.5 on vault at regionals because that’s a stick they’ll desperately need if they’re going to keep pace with the Florida vaulters, who keep getting 9.950s for non-stuck vaults. Those Oklahoma 1.5s have to be at least at the same level. Most teams have been in the “we’re not really sticking yet” phase on vault, so for the teams who look like easy qualification bets, the stick fight on vault may be the most interesting part of the semifinal. We don’t really know who will have the edge there going into Super Six yet.

But now I’m going to say something controversial. It almost hurts to say it, but it may be time to take Chayse Capps out of the floor lineup. OK, I got it out. Now we can work through it as a group. Obviously, the performance is wonderful. That’s not in doubt, but the tumbling and the scores have not followed. Another 9.775 at regionals. That lineup can seriously get close to a 49.6 and be a real asset in Super Six, but if they have an opening 9.775-9.800, that means everyone else has to have the perfect routine. It’s a conundrum.

LSU

LSU has let off the gas a little bit as the season wears down. For almost the entire year, LSU looked like an equal third challenger with Oklahoma and Florida in the fight for the title, scoring 198s and coming up with big wins over Florida and Alabama. But lately, the performances haven’t been quite as convincing. LSU finished 2nd at SECs after it appeared Florida handed them the competition on a platter, and then they went into regionals and recorded a 197.175 with a clinic on tightness on bars and beam. LSU still has the quality to win the title, but recent showings have seemed a clear and significant step below championship level.

The Tigers do come into the semifinal as a very comfortable pick to make Super Six, but if there’s a competition as to which of the three top seeds seems the most likely to be upset, LSU has suddenly moved to the top of that list. At regionals, they finished just 0.225 ahead of a Nebraska team that likewise didn’t have anything resembling an all-time best performance, and that margin should be bigger. It’s way too close for comfort heading to Friday.

While I never thought I would say this, the biggest hole LSU feels this year is the lack of Britney Ranzy on bars. She had become a very useful bars worker toward the end of her career, but without her routine this year (and with bars being the weak event for both freshman stars), LSU has been forced to throw Savona and Gnat into the lineup, both of whom would also count bars as their weak event. The team has been able to get by as a whole, but mistakes are a more likely outcome for LSU on bars than they are for any of the other top teams. Ashleigh Gnat’s routine is a hold-your-breath moment. The Tigers ended up having to count a 9.675 at regionals, which is the kind of score that would give Auburn and Nebraska a beam of inspiring hope in the semifinals, and is the kind of score that would take them entirely out of the running in Super Six. The other issue on bars is the overall scoring potential, even when everyone hits well. Since the first of March, LSU has recorded three total 9.9s on bars (which is not enough) and all three of them have belonged to Courville (which is not enough names). LSU’s performance on bars in rotation three is the most important of the meet both for making sure that LSU is indeed going to advance to Super Six and for evaluating how competitive they might be when they get there. More 9.9s, please.

Sadly, beam has also been disappointingly normal at recent meets. Before the season, I was touting this beam lineup as perhaps the best in the country, and with the talent level, it really should be. At least top three. At least. But in the postseason, this lineup has been wobblesville and has not lived up to that best-in-the-country potential in the slightest. The beamers must show up in the semifinal for LSU to jump back into the coalition of first-tier title contenders. The bars and beam total needs to be a good 98.700, not the 98.350 it was at SECs or the 98.250 it was at regionals. Those scores will not be competitive enough in Super Six and put too much pressure on vault and floor to be perfect.

Now, unlike the beam lineup, the floor lineup both can and has been the best in the country. Especially when Courville is competing. With Savona as the most impressive floor leadoff in the country, and continuing right through to Hall’s possible 10, 49.500 on floor is an extremely attainable, if not slightly soft, number. Last year in Super Six, the 49.6s were flying, and right now LSU looks like the most likely team to go 49.6+ on floor this year. It’s going to take that for them to win, but it won’t mean anything if bars and beam don’t live up to the potential we saw in January and February.

ALABAMA

Alabama’s win at SECs and second-in-the-nation score of 197.575 at regionals have both confirmed that Alabama is right in the fight at nationals and that they have experienced only a minor dip in quality from last year, the result of losing such a strong senior class. Alabama has endured the coaching transition well and the team betrays basically no difference between the Alabama of this year and the Alabama of years past. Although, I do want to point out one thing that I have noticed and enjoyed this year, which is the full turn work on beam. All the gymnasts move into and out of their full turns fluidly and show a lovely finishing position. Refined is not always a quality that gets associated with Alabama’s gymnastics (It’s usually more about “I’m pretending the beam is your face, AND BYE NOW”), but those full turns are drowning in refined.

When it comes to this competition, Alabama has emerged in the second half of the season to show enough quality and consistency, along with an acceptable level of depth (which was a question going into the year), to be an easy pick to get through this semifinal. Unlike LSU and Florida, who have spent the last couple meets revealing cracks that need to be resolved, Alabama has been solid, secure, and dependably mid-197 without exposing any major weaknesses.

At the same time, I would still put Alabama in that second tier of likely winners, the one that LSU is currently trying to get out of. If Alabama does end up winning the title, it would take a day very much like the one we saw all across the nation during regionals. A day when everyone is in good-not-great territory, no one pulls away with a crazy 198, and a bunch of teams end up being right in it. If that’s what happens in Super Six, and the winning scores is around the 197.5-197.8 area, then Alabama shoots right up the list, but if one of the 198 teams does put together something slightly resembling a perfect day, Alabama will struggle to keep up. That’s because of the same issue I mentioned in the regional preview, that Alabama doesn’t have those reliably huge 9.950s at the end of the lineup on which 198s are built. At regionals, Alabama did manage to get three 9.925s (including a welcome and unexpected one from Brannan on vault), but no 9.950+ scores. You need those 9.950s.

Alabama is ranked 5th as a team, as well as 5th on every event except floor, where they’re 4th. That really tells the story. Every event can be strong, every event can be a big score, but is there that one area where Alabama will show up and dominate teams like Florida, LSU, and Oklahoma in Super Six? We haven’t seen that yet. Really, the vault lineup should be able to put up something magical, but I think Alabama’s best option to run away and take an advantage would be beam. That lineup is fun to watch, and Alabama did manage to put up the second-best beam score across all the regionals, losing out to only UCLA. They have six people honestly capable of 9.900 there, which is quite the asset.

AUBURN

Auburn is at nationals! It’s easy to forget that this is such a new thing because Auburn has been right on the cusp of nationals for a few seasons now, but this is a pretty big deal. It’s always important to have new teams contending, making it just a little bit harder for the same-old, same-olds to keep making nationals every year. Now we just need a couple more Auburns so that we stop having regional days where all top 12 seeds advance. It will be down to the Cals of the world to join the club to make that happen.

Auburn has recorded a couple big home results this year, the 197.750 program-high, the 197.300 against LSU, but it’s more likely that we’re looking at something in the low 197s for a strong, hit meet from Auburn in the semifinal. A low 197 is within reason for this team, especially since they have scored two straight 196.9s for performances that no one would consider their absolute best. It’s the kind of score that can put the pressure on the favorites if there is a juicy, juicy mistake, but the Tigers will not be able to control their own destiny. Both Auburn and Nebraska will be waiting on a mistake to see if they have a chance, and they’ll be in a fight together as to which team can emerge as the feistiest challenger. Because LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma don’t go to the treachery of beam until the second half of the meet, we may not know whether Auburn or Nebraska has a real shot until quite late in the meet, but it will be interesting to compare them in the first half to see who is best positioned.

Both Auburn and Nebraska will do beam early, and beam is Auburn’s biggest asset over Nebraska. It’s a definite strength for Auburn, in spite of the nervous performance at regionals, and contains a couple very believable 9.9s. Because of that, Auburn will look to have a lead on Nebraska at the halfway point. I think that 98.700 benchmark is a tough expectation because bars isn’t necessarily a big score for Auburn (98.600 would be good work), but being ahead of Nebraska is the key because Nebraska will go to vault in the second half of the meet.

Between these two teams, the 5th score in each lineup will also be an interesting story to watch. Both have an amazing AAers anchoring lineups, DeZiel for Nebraska and Atkinson for Auburn (Atkinson anchors all four and DeZiel anchors everything but floor). They can both get dramatic scores, so it will come down to which team has the better support scores, which team has extra 9.9s that aren’t coming from the big star.

NEBRASKA

It has been pretty much a usual Nebraska season, hasn’t it? Never making a lot of waves, never mentioned among the favorites, but calmly and casually staying in the top 10 and always keeping it close with the very top teams. The very respectable 196.950 at regionals was further evidence of that. Last year, Nebraska came into the national semifinals in the exact same position, the 5th seed who didn’t seem to have quite the scoring potential of the higher-ranked contenders (Utah and UCLA in that meet), but then they did something magical and revolutionary. They hit beam, in spite of being fairly weak on that event for most of the season.

Nebraska will need to tell a similar story this year. Beam has once again been a question mark, both in consistency and in number of 9.9s. Not having the reliable brilliance from Emily Wong in the final position has deflated some of the scoring potential and put more pressure on the other routines. While Nebraska has not counted a beam fall that recently, in the last two meets, they have recorded six scores under 9.800 among the ten counting scores and have zero 9.9s to show for it. That’s going to make it pretty much impossible to put up a competitive score unless one of the favorites is counting a fall. It’s time to pull out the magic semifinal beam wand for a second year.

As mentioned, Nebraska starts on beam, and that performance will be decisive. A comfortable score there (doesn’t have to be amazing, but comfortably 49.2 would be fine), and the Huskers will feel quite good about their chances. But at the same time, they’re going to need basically a perfect meet to have a shot at challenging one of the top seeds without relying on mistakes, so that’s going to require more that just hitting beam. It’s going to require recording a couple really strong, Super Six-competitive rotations along the way. The best option for that is vault, a rotation that needs to be brought back to life a little bit. It’s seems an eternity ago that Ashley Lambert was getting those 10s and Nebraska was going 49.6-49.7 on vault. It wasn’t a particularly shocking development because that’s the vault pedigree and block quality that Nebraska possesses. We always expect Nebraska to have stellar vaults, but it’s never really a whole-season thing. It comes and goes. Lately, Nebraska has been around the 49.3 portion of the vaulting wave, which is a good score, but not a “We’re going to beat Alabama/LSU” kind of vault score, or even a “We’re guaranteed to finish ahead of Auburn” kind of vault score. It’s going to have to be better because they need something special.

OREGON STATE

As for Oregon State, the victory was making it to nationals after a two-year absence. Missing three years in a row would have been wildly unacceptable, but a perfectly solid 196.750 at regionals was enough to get them through comfortably. The Beavs would not have been considered a very likely contender to get out of this semifinal anyway, but the loss of Kaytianna McMillan at regionals makes any chance they did have significantly smaller. McMillan’s knee went to the bad place during vault in the final rotation, and it’s such a shame because she was finally, finally healthy enough to contribute the routines we expect from her. For about three weeks. Now, they’ll have to find a replacement in every lineup, some of which are going to score in the 9.7s.

It’s reasonable to say that Oregon State is losing 0.300-0.400 tenths in scoring potential without McMillan, which certainly puts them on another tier below Auburn and Nebraska when it comes to who is the most likely contender to challenge the top three. For this team now, if Tang and Gardiner both have good days, a mid 196 would be a strong result. But that means they’ll have to bank on a flurry of mistakes from everybody else to have a shot.

Every year, at the first press conference at nationals, Sarah Patterson’s first comment was always, “You never take for granted making Super Six.” Actually, I’m sure she only said it about once, but in my head it was every moment of the day, every year. Sarah Patterson talking about not taking Super Six for granted and how it’s harder to win the SEC Championship than the national title, which makes no damn sense.

But the not taking it for granted part? Never been truer than it is about this year’s first semifinal. There are no soft teams and no obvious results here. It’s going to be remarkable. At least it better be. The competitors are Florida, Utah, Michigan, UCLA, Georgia, and Stanford, and pretty much any finishing order seems plausible. The only true surprise here would be if Florida fails to make Super Six. Anything else would sound about right, really. All six of these schools are 197 teams, so we can’t expect the 197 standard on which we usually judge the better teams to be good enough. It won’t be good enough. Last year, Utah set the record for the highest ever semifinal score that didn’t advance to Super Six with a 197.025. I’ll be disappointed if that record isn’t broken this year. A score like 197.025 shouldn’t make it out of this semifinal, because that will mean several teams did not perform at the level we expect. So let’s get into it.

FLORIDA

Of all the teams in this semifinal, Florida is the safest. The Gators are the most likely to get a huge score and are the only team in this group that can feel comfortable with their qualification outlook as long as they don’t count a fall. Count a fall, and I have no confidence in anything, but if Florida hits 5-for-6 on each event, everything should be fine. Even if the performance is sort of meh like it was at regionals. Florida scored a 197.475 for that meh performance, which will be enough to make Super Six. 

It’s tough to make prognostications about how Super Six will go at this point because we don’t know who’s going to be there or how these teams will look once the weekend rolls around. There are always several teams who suddenly learn how to land vaults between regionals and nationals, and a couple other teams who probably should have and didn’t. Still, Florida’s performance at regionals did not scream “NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP.” Fortunately for them, neither did anyone else’s. This is open. It shouldn’t be like the men’s championship over the weekend when Oklahoma just came in and Biles-ed the whole thing.

If Florida is really going to win, there’s work to be done. Certainly, bars was the biggest problem at regionals with a whole bunch of “Is it January already?” landings. I’m sure right now they’re spending all the live long day in the gym working the crap out of those bars landings so that it doesn’t happen again, but let’s not forget about the beam questions as well. Yes, Florida recovered from the SEC Championship catastrophe to hit six beam routines at regionals, but even with good hits from Sloan and Hunter, the score was still 49.325, which is somewhat troubling for a hit rotation if we assume it’s going to take a 198 to win the title. It took a 198 last year, and the scoring landscape is the same this year. 49.325s put a ton of pressure on the other events. 49.325s are what knocked LSU out of the title race last year.

In reaction to the disaster from SECs, Florida reorganized the beam lineup, moving Boyce to the first spot. She had a pretty significant wobble at regionals and still got a 9.800, which is a good sign for the team, but I do wonder if they have compromised their scoring potential a bit by moving Boyce because she has proven to be the second-most-likely 9.9 in that lineup behind Sloan. Watch that space during the semifinals. Have they given away a 9.9 in exchange for stability?

But this year, if Florida is going to make it three titles in a row, it will be about vaulting like monsters and winning that event. The Gator identity has changed from last year. With the loss of Caquatto and Johnson and the addition of Baker and McMurtry, this team has become less about bars and more about power. They’re much better on vault this year, and what was probably the biggest question mark in 2014 (aside from beam consistency, because always) has become the biggest asset. Their scoring capability is crazy, which we know because they got a 49.625 at regionals while sticking just one of six vaults. What are they going to get when they actually hit these vaults, the presidency? Probably. But, still a couple things with that. At nationals, you can’t expect to get a 49.625 for one stuck vault. And you can’t expect to stick one vault and win. It doesn’t work like that. Usually. Or it shouldn’t. It’s critical that they really take advantage of the vaults they have and open up that lead.

UTAH

First of all, pull yourself together, Utah. That thing you did at regionals was not OK. I hope everyone bought Georgia Dabritz a gold-encrusted manor house filled with baby rabbits after that performance, because she was the only thing standing between Utah and elimination. Utah does come into this semifinal as the second-ranked team, but after regionals, I would not consider this team any kind of a safe bet. The biggest issue at regionals was obviously having to count a fall and a major error on beam (How Rowe escaped from that routine with a 9.700, I’m still not sure…), so hitting that event in the semifinal is job #1. Utah will do beam in the very first rotation, and that will be the most important single event performance in this semifinal. Utah’s ability or inability to hit beam will dictate how competitive this session ends up being and how many teams are truly in it. 

If Utah gets through beam, they’re right in this with a solid shot at advancing, but I wouldn’t say it’s smooth sailing after beam because that regional performance revealed some other major issues. Keep in mind that even if we gave Utah 0.500 back for the second beam fall at regionals, the total would still have been 197.075, which is not safe. It wasn’t entirely a beam issue.

 In the Pac-12 preview, I praised Utah’s ability to get the most out of this bars lineup, not having the most talented gymnasts or most refined routines but nailing every handstand and landing to squeeze out high scores regardless. That’s exactly what deserted them at regionals. We saw some seriously late pirouettes and not very many stuck dismounts. Most of the dismount issues were minor, a small hop back here and there, but because the Utes are so reliant on sticking to get the scores, they cannot afford even small hops. When those hops come out the play, the scores suddenly plummet into the 9.825s. Looking at the performance from regionals, it’s fair to ask whether the bars and floor lineups are missing the big, consistent supporting routine to go along with Dabritz. Is Utah going to show up to nationals with Dabritz and a bunch of 9.850s on a couple events? Because that will make it much more difficult to advance to Super Six without hoping for errors from others. Pretty much every team here can do 9.850-9.850-9.850-9.850-9.950 as the five counting scores on pretty much every event. That won’t separate any team from the pack.  

For this semifinal, 98.700 is about the magic number I’m looking for at the halfway point. That would mean a 197.400 total if it is maintained for the second half of the meet and should make a team feel comfortable. Expectations will vary based on whether teams are starting with strong events or weak events, but about 98.700 is a safe pace. Because Utah does beam in the first half of the meet and vault in the second half of the meet, being a bit under 98.700 at halfway would be fine in their case, but not that much under. If Utah does manage to go 98.700 after two events, that would mean they hit beam and got perhaps an extra floor 9.9 from Tutka or Lothrop, and they would feel very good about qualifying from that point because they would still have vault to come.

Vault remains Utah’s trump card. Among the teams that aren’t Florida, Utah should be winning vault in this session and doing so comfortably. A 49.500 is a very realistic score, even without Tory Wilson. It’s Utah’s chance to pull away, but they’ll have to keep themselves competitive before they get there. So we’re back to beam. This is the most talented team Utah has put together in a number of years, and with Georgia Dabritz in her final year, this may be the best chance Utah gets for a while to make a real challenge. They have to take it.

MICHIGAN

Hmmmmmmmmmm. That’s what I have to say. Hmmmmmmmmmm. Michigan has recorded some big scores this year. A 197.8 at home. A 197.6 on the road. That’s Super Six-level scoring, but for most of the year the scores have been hanging around the 197.1s and 197.2s, which should be on the cusp of being a usable score. Michigan is definitely a bubble team in this semifinal, certainly capable of advancing but also capable of putting together a perfectly hit meet with no significant errors and still being defeated by teams who just did better. That’s basically what happened at regionals. Michigan was good, solid, fine, got hosed on a couple of those bars and beam scores, and ended up finishing a half point behind UCLA. That’s not an insignificant margin. If every team is nailing their routines, this may not be in Michigan’s hands. They’re going to need some average work from some of the others. Considering the teams competing in this semifinal and their history of giving everyone on earth a heart attack, that seems more than likely.

There are enough amazing routines in this semifinal that I really hope it’s not a  splatfest, but it very well could be. Unlike me, Michigan would be totally pleased if this is a splatfest because their best asse has been hitting every routine every time. Let all those beautiful disaster teams be beautiful disasters, and Michigan will just skate on through to Super Six, doing a pageant wave the whole time. But, if those Wolverines are going to take control of this meet, determine their own fate, and not rely on other teams making errors, honing the vault landings is the most essential missing piece. Right now, everyone except Sugiyama is dropping too many tenths with those big bounces back. These days, teams expecting to advance to Super Six cannot count 9.800 on vault ever, so Michigan will have to show more control in the semifinal to avoid letting a team like Utah run away and gain three tenths or more on that one event.

Michigan and UCLA will both end on byes, finishing their meets in the 5th rotation with Michigan on vault and UCLA on beam. With so many competitive teams in this session, it’s hard to make a comparison between just two because there are too many different realistic permutations of how this could go down the stretch. But, if it does come down to UCLA and Michigan fighting it out as they did at regionals, Michigan is going to want a multi-tenth lead before the final event given the questions about those vault landings compared the strength of UCLA on beam. Being tied or behind going to the 5th rotation is bad news. In the 4th rotation, they’ll have to take advantage of floor to build up a lead on any team they might be close with. Regardless of who they’re battling, Michigan is going to want to be at least 147.900ish going to the final event to be truly in this.

UCLA

UCLA is being UCLA, coming on strong right at the end of the season. For as much talk as there was before the season about ramping up training so much earlier and being ahead of schedule, this year has looked exactly the same as always. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It has worked before. Beating Michigan at regionals and scoring that solid 197.500 (the highest regional score of any team in this semifinal) would seem to indicate that the Bruins have the edge right now and perhaps the inside track to qualification. I do think that if every member of every team hits all her very best routines on Friday, UCLA will be among the top three in this session, but that isn’t a thing that happens, so it’s irrelevant.

The Bruins will just hope to keep things close enough through the early part of the meet, reeling in as many close to 49.4 as possible. Once again the 4th rotation will be crucial. Just as Michigan must build up an advantage on floor in the 4th, UCLA cannot afford to go to bars in the 4th and give up the world. If they don’t give up the world, the Bruins will look to sail away from the pack by ending on beam and throwing up another ALL THE 9.950s performance. 

It’s always scary to have beam as your best event. It’s still beam. Things happen. UCLA is much more reliant on a huge beam score than the other teams in this session are. Because of concerns on the other events, they’re the least able to afford wobbles. Those realistic 9.900s and 9.950s are too precious for that. For some other teams, like Utah, getting through beam with 9.850s would be a result. They could work with that, but UCLA cannot. It has to be amazing.

Also keep an eye on UCLA’s floor work in that first rotation because I’m a little bit worried about the floor lineup. Not majorly worried, but I do have questions. Most of my attention has been on the greatness of the beam lineup and the meh-ness of the middle of the bars lineup, but I’m going to take some time for floor now because it can be sort of hit-or-miss in the short landings department. There are three people in this lineup in Francis, Cipra, and Bynum who should be able to get 9.900 every time but who can all be caught by the short-landing monster to compromise the team score. Watch those three routines in particular. If they’re short-double-back-9.825 type showings on Friday, UCLA is in the kind of trouble that they may not be able to work out of. That’s how close this meet should be. 

Because the Bruins are starting on floor and vault, the two traditionally higher-scoring events (and the two events on which I expect to see the highest scores at nationals this year given the relative strengths of the field), they need to be hugging that 98.700 marker at the halfway point. At regionals, they were 98.675 on floor and vault combined, so if they repeat that same performance, it’s OK. Although there is still plenty of room for improvement on that regionals showing.

GEORGIA

Like UCLA, Georgia has waited until the last minute to turn things on, though that path isn’t really as expected for Georgia as it is for UCLA. Nor was it the plan. Things haven’t gone right very many times for Georgia this season, but maybe it’s maybe starting to get a little better, maybe. The SEC Championship did not go great, but strutting into regionals and beating Utah for the second time this season was an important step to erase that SEC performance from all of our minds. Maybe Georgia is only good when Utah is around, in which case this is the ideal semifinal draw.

While Georgia did cut out some of those notable errors to win regionals, the total score was still just a 197.025, which is not enough to bank on. The team must continue to get better, and beam remains the area where the most bettering needs to happen. There’s still a lot of not-better going on there. Even though Georgia essentially hit five routines at regionals (and won the event on the night, which tells a really vivid story about how beam went at that competition), they still got a 48.950, which barely counts as hitting. No one should be making it out of this session with a 48 on any event, so they’ll have to take another big step forward this weekend. Brittany Rogers hasn’t had a great beam season with a lot of tight routines lately, but they’ll need her to be a true 9.875 again along with Broussard and Box to hope for a usable score.

As for the lineup, I did like the idea of putting Brown back in, even though it was unpopular and didn’t work. She brings higher scoring potential than the other options with a hit routine, and the Gym Dogs are not in a position to play it safe right now. They have to take risks to have any hope of a huge score. If there’s any reason at all to think Kiera Brown might suddenly hit at nationals, I say go for it. At the same time, that’s risky and foolhardy, so I would not begrudge them removing her from the lineup. Regardless, Natalie Vaculik must come back into the lineup in place of someone because we need to have as many opportunities for dueling Vaculiks in this session as possible. Any time two Vaculiks do simultaneous routines, a fairy gets its wings. At least, that’s how I got mine.

There were also some very encouraging developments at regionals, particularly that 49.400 on vault. We didn’t see many of the vaults, but all those 49.1s that Georgia got during the season were silly and unacceptable for a team with Jay, Rogers, Davis and now Broussard most of the time. 49.400 is much more like it, and if they can repeat that at nationals, we don’t have to worry about vault. We just have to worry about beam, and a little bit floor. This group seems to have worked out the hitting floor part, but the lack of consistent and reliable 9.9s is still a problem that will keep Georgia below the top four seeds in this semifinal. As was proven at regionals, Mary Beth Box will always get a 9.875.

Georgia drew the gold star and will go in Olympic order, which is always a comfortable rotation order. But it does mean that they will be starting on two events that must both be huge scores. They need to be sitting pretty at the halfway point. Probably in the top two, top three at the very worst. Anything lower is a major red flag with beam and floor coming in the second half, so that 98.700 halfway benchmark may be a soft estimate in Georgia’s case. With those potential bars scores, they need to be at a good 98.800, and maybe higher. Georgia is not going to be a come-from-behind team in this meet. They will need to get a lead early and try to keep it.

STANFORD

Stanford has become sort of an afterthought in this semifinal because we’re only human and don’t have room in our puny little brains to consider six possible teams advancing at one time. It’s just too much. But, Stanford is entirely capable of putting together the kind of low-mid 197 that it should take to squeeze through to Super Six. We’ve seen it done. Even at regionals, Stanford managed to pull out a 197.000 while having a poor showing on their best event, bars. Throw a usual Stanford bars rotation in there, and we’re talking about one of the top scores on the day from any team. Once again, Stanford’s first event will be bars, and they cannot afford another sloppy start. 49.400 is what they should be looking for, and with the standard in this competition, they won’t be able to endure much less than that. Nor should we allow it. You don’t get to have that much bars pretty and still score a 49.025. It’s against the rules.

Like Georgia, Stanford will have completed very high-scoring events (for them) in the first half of the meet, so they’re also going to need to be ranked very well early and will be hoping to break that 98.700 barrier. Usually that’s a big ask for bars and beam scores, but it will be necessary for Stanford. One of the interesting mini-battles in this semifinal will be between Georgia and Stanford to see which team gets the better start since they both need amazing ones. It’s hard to imagine the top three at the halfway point being Florida, Georgia, and Stanford, but that’s exactly what Georgia and Stanford need, and it would certainly make for an amazing final three rotations with a six-way fight for qualification.

It’s so important that Stanford use Ivana Hong’s special powers to get out fast because floor remains their least competitive event. The group that performed at regionals does not have enough easy 9.9s to be truly competitive. It’s a more extreme version of Georgia’s predicament. Occasionally Rice will get there, and we know Vaculik can, but it’s not a given for anyone, and that’s trouble. Even with a good start on bars and beam, we probably won’t know if Stanford is a contender until after floor. If they do come up with a relatively usable score (it doesn’t have to be that huge because bars and beam can make up some of that ground), then there’s very little difference between Stanford and the higher-seeded teams.

SO…
In most of the ways, this semifinal appears to defy prediction, which means it will end up being really predictable and boring. That’s what always happens. The interesting semifinal turns out to be boring, and the boring semifinal turns out to be interesting. A lot is going to depend on which Utah shows up. If regular-season Utah shows up on Friday, this allegedly wide-open session closes up quite a lot. Regular-season Utah, if that even exists anymore after the Wilson injury, will be able to pull away and qualify, leaving UCLA and Michigan to fight it out for the remaining spot and Georgia and Stanford hoping to swoop in with an amazing day (or hoping both UCLA and Michigan have catastrophes). But if regionals Utah shows up again, all bets are off. The spots would be open, and it would be so much easier to imagine anyone taking them. And that’s what should make this semifinal such a good one.