Monthly Archives: February 2016

Rankings

Week 7 Rankings + RQS Update

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RQS has officially taken over, which means the rankings look quite different than they did last week when they were based on average, but not too different from what we saw in last week’s RQS primer. Florida got a vital away score, LSU is ranked artificially low because of a nasty away score that’s still hanging around, and a number of teams bumped up their RQS totals by dropping ugly scores yet didn’t quite get the boost they would have hoped. Enjoy!

Also, I go on a little mid-ranking rant about hypersensitivity! So that’s fun. Enjoy turning on me. 

Ashleigh Gnat got a 10 on floor this week, adding to her nation-leading total of three. Other than that, it was once again a week of 9.975s, with Winston and Brannan going back-to-back for Alabama on bars, Sloan getting one on floor, and Stover reaching the mark on beam. Among others?

Also, Kyla retired from elite today. So that’s suddenly big news. I should probably have something to say about that. It sounds like the smart decision since Rio was looking less and less and less likely with the passing months. Now, she’ll avoid putting her body through the ringer of a Trials process and heal up as much as possible for a UCLA team that desperately needs someone without a case of elite-injured-forever. 

Week 7 rankings
1. Oklahoma – 197.595

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.925
Road Score 2: 197.675
Road Score 3: 197.550
Road/Home Score 1: 197.900
Road/Home Score 2: 197.475
Road/Home Score 3: 197.375

The Sooners scores a relatively paltry 197.375 at Georgia over the weekend. Slackers. That counts as bad for Oklahoma, a result of a couple missed vault landings and suddenly strictly judged floor routines. You can certainly justify the scores that were given to those floor performances, but the argument that those scores were out of step with the rest of the meet and the general looseness of floor scoring this season is a valid one. The consequence of that garbage shame of a 197.375 is that what used to be a nearly 0.500 RQS advantage over Florida has shrunk to just about 0.250. It’s still comfortable, but no longer dominant, and Florida will view the #1 ranking as much more attainable now.

2. Florida – 197.355

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.750
Road Score 2: 197.075
Road Score 3: 196.825
Road/Home Score 1: 198.175
Road/Home Score 2: 197.675
Road/Home Score 3: 197.450

Much of last week, I spoke about how important it was for Florida to get a huge away score over the weekend to close that gap with Oklahoma, and that’s exactly what Florida did. Now, we’ll all just acknowledge the fact that Bridget Sloan had two landing hops on floor and the judges just threw roses at her and shouted, “Encore! Bravissima!” instead of taking deductions, and the questions about Florida’s ability to keep pace on floor remain. Still, 197.750. No slouch of a score. Mission #1 accomplished, but Florida will still need to replicate that performance in the two remaining road meets in order to have a shot at #1 and drop the distinctly un-Florida score still in the RQS picture.

3. Alabama – 197.195

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.525
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 197.250
Road/Home Score 1: 197.375
Road/Home Score 2: 197.175
Road/Home Score 3: 196.875

Alabama had an RQS lead on Florida going into the week and had a real shot at #2 but was not able to gain as much after getting stuck on the 9.850s for three events, though a huge bars score lifted the total up to 197.300, a respectable enough total and one that keeps Alabama squarely in the hunt for a finish somewhere 3-5. Counting two 197.3s, however, will make it harder to move up any higher than 3rd given what Oklahoma and Florida are counting so far. Right now, I would classify Alabama as the deepest team in NCAA, but the difference between qualifying to Super Six and challenging for the title will be decided by whether this is just a team with a billion 9.850 options or a team with a billion 9.850 options, from which emerge 12+ 9.9 options.

4. Michigan – 196.920

RQS:
Road Score 1: 196.975
Road Score 2: 196.900
Road Score 3: 196.550
Road/Home Score 1: 197.425
Road/Home Score 2: 197.225
Road/Home Score 3:196.950

The Michigan beam disaster. Is it 2012 already? PTSD flashbacks. This score will be dropped and is best forgotten forever. My motto about beam is that disasters aren’t something to worry about until they happen twice. This is the second time, so gentle concern might be arising. But no more than that yet. It was a bit troubling, though, that the errors did compound themselves. The back of the lineup appeared to lose composure after the early mistakes, ending is uncharacteristically weak showings from Artz and Chiarelli, who should be the bam-bam, confident 9.9s at the back of the lineup who save the total even in tense circumstances. 

With the dropped score, Michigan’s RQS stays the same, which makes the total a little more vulnerable to the likes of LSU, Utah, and UCLA. Still, both bold scores are perfectly fine right now, and with three road meets remaining, there’s time to get a few more. Michigan’s scores are tightly packed enough that even with a season high next weekend at Oklahoma, they have no chance to move up any higher than 4th. The mission will be holding off the challenging hordes.

5. Utah – 196.850

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.150
Road Score 2: 197.075
Road Score 3: 196.725
Road/Home Score 1: 197.150
Road/Home Score 2: 197.125
Road/Home Score 3: 196.175

Utah will be relatively happy with the performance at Stanford, one that was largely steady if marked by a few more missed dismounts on bars and checks on beam, but will not be particularly happy with the total. The big 197.5s that it takes to challenge the top remain out of reach. Still, Utah has that 196.1 hanging around the RQS picture, and we can expect that score to be eradicated next week barring disaster, which puts the team in contention to catch Michigan even with another normal, medium performance.

The Utes also got in a tiny morsel of fake internet trouble over the weekend by tweeting something along the lines of “three people go to Stanford’s meets, and a million people go to our meets. Neener-neener-neener.” I paraphrase. It was basically that. Apparently, this was shocking and offensive to people because of the wild hypersensitivity of college gymnastics. Was it kind of snarky and ignoble? Yeah. And that’s fine. That’s good. A little trash talk between teams/fans is healthy. It’s hardly harsh or mean-spirited. There’s nothing wrong with some G-rated rivalry and animosity to throw a spark into proceedings. This is a sport of adults after all, not a little girl dance recital presentation where everyone is happy for everyone, hard as some might try to make it that way. But of course, this is college gymnastics, so anything exhibiting a shred of personality, honesty, or the acknowledgment that this is actually a competition among passionate athletes who are in no way required to be supportive best friends must be removed immediately.

It’s like when Stanford went to Oklahoma a few years ago and then had a minor twitter rant about the insane scoring, then had to delete it and apologize because heaven forbid someone say something publicly that isn’t entirely positive. Or when Taylor Rice came on Gymcastic with us and then got in trouble for having a personality and giving honest impressions about the crazy scores. Breaking news: this is all fine. Have an opinion. Care. Create rivalries. Talk trash. Snark. Disagree. Be excited. Be salty. Cheer. Boo. Raise a hullabaloo. Root for outcomes, not just for everyone to hit/have a good time. Otherwise, how can you expect anyone to treat this like a real sport? Positivity is not exclusively a virtue and negativity is not exclusively a vice. If you’re an LSU fan, rooting for Florida to fall on beam or trip while doing a Gator chomp is not mean-spirited and not something to be ashamed of. It’s just sports. Inherent in wanting your team to succeed is wanting other teams to fail, and gymnastics needs to stop pretending that’s not true and stop pretending that it’s something inappropriate, unattractive, or shameful. It just is. Not everyone needs to come away from everything feeling great and supported all the time.

If the Sophina viral incident taught us anything, it’s that gymnastics makes waves when it loosens up and shows a side that isn’t in line with the prim and reserved reputation it has. So loosen up.  

6. UCLA – 196.810

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.925
Road Score 2: 196.800
Road Score 3: 196.675
Road/Home Score 1: 197.475
Road/Home Score 2: 197.100
Road/Home Score 3: 196.550

Great, now am I going to have to have a rant about every team?

UCLA’s RQS zooms up this week because the Bruins were able to drop an ugly 195, but they would have hoped for a higher score this weekend that a 196.675. Big results on beam and floor helped save the meet, but lackluster landings on the first two events kept the total out of the much-needed 197-road-score territory. 196.675 is OK, but with just one road meet left, UCLA is already guaranteed to count two scores in the 196s, making the current #6 position somewhat precarious if these lower-ranked SEC teams go on scoring tears.

7. LSU – 196.750

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.800
Road Score 2: 196.750
Road Score 3: 195.825
Road/Home Score 1: 197.825
Road/Home Score 2: 197.425
Road/Home Score 3: 196.950

LSU finally broke though over the weekend for a massive 197.825 that we all knew was coming sooner or later. LSU should be ranked about 4th right now, but that nasty result from the Las Vegas meet is still hanging around, pulling the team down for the moment. Next weekend, LSU goes to Florida. Both teams basically have already scored a 198 in that meet, so expect LSU to jump up and challenge for a spot in the top 4 with another hit meet. With three road meets remaining, there’s still time to LSU to get rid of all of those 196s, so the RQS outlook is pretty strong.

8. Auburn – 196.495

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.125
Road Score 2: 196.825
Road Score 3: 196.175
Road/Home Score 1: 197.275
Road/Home Score 2: 196.275
Road/Home Score 3: 196.075

A gap is forming between the top 7 and the rest, but the gap is not necessarily permanent. Auburn suddenly turned into a different team three weeks ago, and if these 197s continue, Auburn has a solid chance to go higher, with bold scores better than what both Utah and UCLA are guaranteed to count so far. The Tigers have two home meets, a Georgia meet, and the SEC Champs remaining on the schedule, so the potential for 3-4 more big scores is certainly there.

9. Arkansas – 196.315

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.700
Road Score 2: 196.150
Road Score 3: 196.150
Road/Home Score 1: 196.700
Road/Home Score 2: 196.600
Road/Home Score 3: 195.975

Arkansas keeps plugging away with those low 196s. Coming off another even but not overwhelming result against Maryland, Arkansas appears unlikely to challenge for a ranking position higher than #9 but also appears like a better and better bet to hold onto a coveted top-12 spot. We’ve seen teams ranked throughout the teens put up high 196s as well, but they’re also throwing in stinkers that Arkansas isn’t, making them much more vulnerable.
 
10. Georgia – 196.310

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.775
Road Score 2: 196.275
Road Score 3: 195.350
Road/Home Score 1: 197.525
Road/Home Score 2: 196.750
Road/Home Score 3: 196.400

The Georgia Narrative Game is my favorite game in college gymnastics this season. Ostensibly, this isn’t a good week for the Georgia narrative, stepping right back to early February with a loss and counting a beam fall. Then again, the team total was a still-useful 196.750, the team’s third-highest of the season, and the only scored guaranteed to count right now is that excellent 197.5. That’s not to pretend that things are rosy for Georgia right now. How much confidence do we really have that this team can hit a postseason beam rotation? But, with five meets remaining and a 195 that should be no trouble to eliminate, Georgia is more than alive for a final ranking much higher than #10. Next weekend’s meet is away at Alabama. The original rivalry. With Georgia once again under big beam pressure. Yes, please.

11. Boise State – 196.185

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.425
Road Score 2: 196.400
Road Score 3: 196.275
Road/Home Score 1: 196.300
Road/Home Score 2: 196.250
Road/Home Score 3: 195.700

Boise State recorded its fifth-straight 196 over the weekend and is clearly playing the steady game as well as another other team in NCAA right now. The Broncos (Broncos, right?) are in a similar, though less secure, position to Arkansas in that they’re putting up solid numbers but are somewhat at the mercy of teams with higher ceilings that may or may not get their acts together. There are plenty of teams able to knock Boise State down, but they aren’t necessarily going to because of the sheer number of sightings of the 195 monster. Either way, this Boise State team is setting itself up as a solid spoiler reminiscent of that 2011 team.

12. Stanford – 196.045

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.650
Road Score 2: 196.075
Road Score 3: 195.875
Road/Home Score 1: 196.675
Road/Home Score 2: 195.875
Road/Home Score 3: 195.750

Stanford was able to stay afloat over the weekend by dropping a 194.800, but the 195.875 was far from the score the team would have wanted from a must-hit meet. Stanford counted a bars fall, which is bad for any team but even worse for a Stanford roster that heavily relies on big bars and beam scores. Now, with three meets left, Stanford is guaranteed already to count a low 196. It’s not the end of the world, but it increases the pressure on the remaining three scores all to be excellent and ensures that the teams in adjacent ranking positions smell blood. Stanford can certainly still Stanford and suddenly throw out Ivana Hong in the AA at regionals and be all perfect, but every 195 makes a #3 seeding look more and more possible.  

13. Denver – 196.005

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.350
Road Score 2: 196.125
Road Score 3: 196.000
Road/Home Score 1: 196.675
Road/Home Score 2: 195.900
Road/Home Score 3: 195.650

Denver’s 196.350 from Saturday doesn’t necessarily stand out, but it’s the team’s highest away score of the season and was accomplished while counting a 9.625 from NINA MCGEE for an OOB floor routine, a score that they’d almost always be able to count on for three tenths more than that. At this point, Denver’s outlook is quite similar to Stanford’s, which is impressive for a school without nearly the same expectations or pedigree, and while the top 10 will be out of reach, making some serious ranking noise remains a realistic proposition with five meets still remaining, compared to most teams with three or four.

14. Nebraska – 195.955

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.350
Road Score 2: 196.150
Road Score 3: 195.350
Road/Home Score 1: 196.775
Road/Home Score 2: 196.100
Road/Home Score 3: 195.825

You’re killing me, Nebraska. The Huskers lost to NC State over the weekend, scoring a low 195 after Jennie Laeng got an 8.5 on bars and then scratched the rest of the meet. That meant Nebraska had to pull a Nebraska and put up just five on vault and floor, resulting in a counted floor fall. Having only five available to go on floor, even after a fall when the team desperately needed an extra hit, is particularly troubling because Nebraska looked to have more depth on floor this year with gymnasts like Orel and Schweihofer contributing helpful routines, but suddenly both of those routines were MIA. Dear. Similar to Stanford, counting low 196 road scores is not ideal for a team with Nebraska’s expectations and puts the team in a vulnerable positions with just one road meet remaining, with the added problem of a super-low road score that must be removed to have any realistic shot at avoiding an unfortunate regional placement.

14. Cal – 195.955

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.900
Road Score 2: 195.650
Road Score 3: 195.575
Road/Home Score 1: 196.825
Road/Home Score 2: 196.375
Road/Home Score 3: 195.350

The tale of two teams this year. One minute, Cal is all WE’RE THE BEST, and the next minute they’re all 195.300. The two bold scores are excellent, but that’s only worth so much with 195s still on the record. Nonetheless, Cal Regional Upset Watch is probably more realistic this year than it has ever been in the past. 

16. Missouri – 195.900

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.050
Road Score 2: 195.825
Road Score 3: 195.200
Road/Home Score 1: 196.650
Road/Home Score 2: 196.625
Road/Home Score 3: 195.800

Missouri is ranked at #16 on the strength of big home scores, the most recent earned during a meet with undeniably fancy scoring for both teams. If Missouri is going to prove a true upset threat, those mid-196 scores must be reached on the road as well. If they can be, then all these teams ranked in the teens are vulnerable to be passed because bold 196.6s make any team formidable. 

17. Oregon State – 195.840

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.350
Road Score 2: 196.225
Road Score 3: 195.325
Road/Home Score 1: 196.850
Road/Home Score 2: 195.875
Road/Home Score 3: 195.425

Oregon State has no business being ranked 17th. It’s cause for concern, especially with two very low 195s still hanging around. The team has work to do, but the big home score against Cal is a step closer to what we expect from the team. In spite of being all the way down in the peasant parts of the rankings, the Beavs are still in the fight for a non-terrifying regional placement, but only if all these 195s go away, which means three big hits with complete lineups of 9.850s over the next four meets. At the very least. OSU has definitely left it to the last minute. How very Stanford of them.

18. Iowa – 195.710

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.275
Road Score 2: 196.275
Road Score 3: 194.900
Road/Home Score 1: 196.650
Road/Home Score 2: 196.375
Road/Home Score 3: 194.725

Iowa had been nailing meets for a whole month of 196s, but everything finally came crashing down over the weekend in a meet made entirely out of falls. So, while Iowa does jump up the rankings now that RQS in in play, this was a missed opportunity to go even higher. Interestingly, Iowa has no 195s this year. It’s either 196 or 194. With two more 196s, this becomes another legitimately competitive team to challenge for the 1-12-13 regional, but which team is going to show up in the next four meets? The 196 team or the 194 team?

19. Minnesota – 195.695

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.300
Road Score 2: 196.075
Road Score 3: 195.525
Road/Home Score 1: 195.775
Road/Home Score 2: 195.675
Road/Home Score 3: 195.425

20. George Washington – 195.520

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.175
Road Score 2: 196.075
Road Score 3: 195.750
Road/Home Score 1: 195.425
Road/Home Score 2: 195.400
Road/Home Score 3: 194.950

21. Eastern Michigan – 195.485

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.600
Road Score 2: 195.975
Road Score 3: 195.050
Road/Home Score 1: 195.750
Road/Home Score 2: 195.600
Road/Home Score 3: 195.050

22. Kentucky – 195.480

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.800
Road Score 2: 195.800
Road Score 3: 195.525
Road/Home Score 1:196.050
Road/Home Score 2: 195.175
Road/Home Score 3: 195.100

23. West Virginia – 195.420

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.250
Road Score 2: 195.250
Road Score 3: 195.200
Road/Home Score 1: 195.800
Road/Home Score 2: 195.800
Road/Home Score 3: 195.600

24. Illinois – 195.315

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.300
Road Score 2: 195.725
Road Score 3: 195.500
Road/Home Score 1: 195.150
Road/Home Score 2: 195.125
Road/Home Score 3: 195.075

25. Arizona – 195.235

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.000
Road Score 2: 194.850
Road Score 3: 193.475
Road/Home Score 1: 196.475
Road/Home Score 2: 196.150
Road/Home Score 3: 195.700

*Note that Southern Utah does not currently have enough road meets to have an RQS and so temporarily drops off the rankings.

Live Blog

Saturday Live Blog – Oklahoma @ Georgia; Utah @ Stanford

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Saturday, February 20

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Oklahoma @ Georgia – SCORES – SECN
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Alabama, Denver, Cornell @ Penn State – SCORES – Stream(free)
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Utah @ Stanford – SCORES – Pac-12
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Cal @ Oregon State – SCORES – Pac-12 Oregon
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Towson @ Iowa – SCORES – Stream($)
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Pennsylvania, Temple, Ursinus @ Rutgers – SCORES
10:15 ET/7:15 PT – Winter Cuppity Cup Cup Cup – SCORES/STREAM
Joyful times to be had by all! Until we get to Georgia on beam. Then…we’ll see. The main focus of the day will be everything, but mostly Oklahoma and Georgia because I’m fascinated to see those two up against each other. I don’t think it’s going to be the cakewalk for Oklahoma it might seem based on most previous scores, so that’s obviously the kiss of death. Enjoy reading that sentence after Oklahoma wins by three points.

First eye goes on that meet. Second eye on Utah and Stanford because that’s now an urgent scoring assignment for Stanford. Remaining eyes on Iowa’s scores and the “who’s fourth-best in this conference” showdown between OSU and Cal. Oh, and Alabama! Too much!

Also, why you should be a fan of Kaytianna McMillan.


“That was a good sentence. We have like maybe two.”

And then tonight, the elite boys get their Winter Cup on, which is always a treat. It’s like gymnastics, but where everyone falls on everything. It’s really fun. You’ll like it a lot.

Continue reading Saturday Live Blog – Oklahoma @ Georgia; Utah @ Stanford →

Live Blog

Friday Live Blog – Auburn @ LSU; Florida, Michigan, Missouri

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Friday, February 19

6:30 ET/3:30 PT – Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan – SCORES – ESPN3
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Florida @ Missouri – SCORES – SECN
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Illinois @ Michigan State – SCORES – Stream ($)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – New Hampshire, North Carolina, William & Mary @ George Washington – SCORES – Stream($)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – UW-Eau Claire @ Gustavus Adolphus – SCORES
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Arkansas @ Maryland – SCORES – BTN2Go ($)
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Minnesota, Air Force @ Iowa State – SCORES
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Illinois State @ SEMO – SCORES
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Hamline @ Winona State – SCORES
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – UW-Stout @ UW-Oshkosh – Stream
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Ball State, Seattle Pacific @ Northern Illinois – SCORES – ESPN3
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Centenary @ UW-Whitewater – Stream
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – Auburn @ LSU – SCORES – SECN
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Michigan, UC Davis @ Southern Utah – SCORES – FLOG($)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Ohio State @ Boise State – SCORES – Stream
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Utah State @ BYU – SCORES – Stream
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – San Jose State @ Sacramento State

Week 6 rankings

Continue reading Friday Live Blog – Auburn @ LSU; Florida, Michigan, Missouri →

NCAA Schedule

The Weekend Plans – February 19-22

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We’ve already hit the point in the season when teams begin having senior night/day. What is happening? This weekend marks the final home meet for Stanford and Iowa, among others.

Top 25 schedule

Friday, February 19
6:30 ET/3:30 PT – Western Michigan @ [21] Eastern Michigan 
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [2] Florida @ [19] Missouri
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [25] Illinois @ Michigan State
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – New Hampshire, North Carolina, William & Mary @ [17] George Washington
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [11] Arkansas @ Maryland
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [18] Minnesota, Air Force @ Iowa State
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [8] Auburn @ [6] LSU
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [3] Michigan, UC Davis @ [23] Southern Utah
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Ohio State @ [9] Boise State
Saturday, February 20
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [1] Oklahoma @ [10] Georgia
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [4] Alabama, [13] Denver, Cornell @ Penn State
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [5] Utah @ [12] Stanford
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [15] Cal @ [16] Oregon State
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Towson @ [24] Iowa
Sunday, February 21 
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [22] Kentucky @ West Virginia
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [14] Nebraska, NC State, UW-La Crosse @ Iowa State
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [7] UCLA @ Washington

Monday, February 22
9:00 ET/6:00 PT –[20] Arizona @ Arizona State

Live blogging
Friday and Saturday, as is becoming the norm. Friday’s headline meet is Auburn and LSU, but Michigan and Florida will be worth keeping an eye on as well. Once again, Saturday totally beats Friday, with a whole heap of overlapping afternoon meets. It’ll be another Gymnastics Situation Room kind of day, so prepare your eyes, devices, and attention spans.

Rankings
We move onto RQS Island starting on Monday, which means we’ll have a more defined sense of exactly what teams need in order to move up now. Oklahoma is guaranteed to retain the #1 ranking for at least another week. Alabama and Florida are neck-and-neck for the #2 spot right now with both teams heading out for what should be comfortable road wins. A slight advantage goes to Florida because the Gators have a 196.350 to get rid of while Alabama is trying to drop a 196.775. Florida is more likely to increase RQS even with an average result. 

Michigan is almost surely safe at #4, with only UCLA having an outside chance to overtake (though it would take a season-high for UCLA and a season-low for Michigan to get it done). UCLA is currently at #7 but has a 195.175 road score to drop this weekend and with a big result, can leapfrog both #5 Utah and #6 LSU regardless of what either team does.

Stanford and Georgia are two other teams with high increase potential, with Georgia looking to drop a 195.700 and Stanford looking to drop that nasty wretch of a 194.800. Also, don’t lose track of Iowa. Iowa is currently at #24, but with a fifth consecutive 196, it would not be surprising to see Iowa jump right up into the mid teens.

Friday
-Most of the results on Friday seem relatively predestined, except perhaps for Auburn and LSU, the annual instance of Tiger on Tiger crime. Auburn is coming off that huge upset of Alabama and, more importantly, a return to the type of scores we saw last season. Winning away against LSU, however, is more challenging prospect. LSU is the stronger team overall and so tough to beat at home, but LSU has managed a 197 just once so far this season, not displaying enough consistency yet to earn the mantle of prohibitive favorites. LSU didn’t count a fall last weekend but still came in below Auburn’s mark by half a point because of way too many minor errors across every event. 

Until last weekend, vault would have seemed a major advantage for LSU, and while LSU still should have the edge primarily because of the Gnat Factor, Auburn can keep the meet close early, or event get a lead, if the vault landings are similar to last week. The halfway lead may be possible because bars, particularly dismount control on bars, is one area where Auburn has looked stronger than LSU. It’s necessary because once we get to the second half of the meet, LSU has more 9.9 potential on beam, meaning that if LSU actually hits real routines (hasn’t always happened/hasn’t usually happened), Auburn will drop tenths in spite of Demers/Atkinson greatness. Those tenths will be tough to make up against LSU on home floor.

-Florida’s mission this weekend is a big road score, which has so far eluded the team. This Gator roster is far too capable to be maxing out at a low 197 on the road, even in February. Last weekend’s result was perfectly solid, but a little misleading in the vault and floor scores because essential routines from Sloan and Baker were missing, which made those rotations look a little more flaccid than they are. Yes, I used the word flaccid. Florida doesn’t have enough depth on vault and floor to rest people and still maintain Florida-esque scoring potential, but with full lineups, this team should be able to do mid-197s regardless of venue. We do still need to be on floor watch/Bridgey watch, though.

-Another up-for-grabs result should be New Hampshire (and company)’s visit to George Washington. Both teams have scored 196 this year. Both teams have scored 194 this year. George Washington is more consistent and less likely to throw up a stinker on vault and floor, which primarily accounts for the difference in ranking as New Hampshire has the ability to score quite well on bars and beam while counting 9.1s on vault and floor. I’ll be keeping an eye on those scores.

Saturday
-Did you guys hear that Georgia’s, like, good now? Starting recently. That should make Saturday’s showcase meet against Oklahoma a much more interesting prospect. If Georgia is able to continue getting home mid-197s, Oklahoma will actually have to pay attention and try this time. Oklahoma probably has the edge on each event, but Georgia shows a touch more difficulty on vault, which could be an advantage if the landings are there. Keep that Brittany Rogers DTY. I think she proved last week that it’s comfortable enough to be worth it. In general, Georgia will be aiming to replicate last week’s performance and wait for Oklahoma to suddenly have more errors than we’ve seen in this recent run of 197.9s. Both teams are pretty exciting to watch (sometimes even for good reasons), and I’m eager to see their routines back-to-back.

Oklahoma has not been completely impervious this season. We’ve seen some strange things, like the unexpected regression of Kara Lovan, who is currently not making any lineups and falling all over the place. My fantasy gym team is not happy about it. The Sooners have enough depth to afford that, but Lovan got two 9.900s in Super Six last year, and those are 9.900s the team would have been counting on this year. There are plenty of 9.850s waiting to take those spots, but that’s still a .050 loss that could be significant later on.

-Utah goes to Stanford in a meet that is much, much more important for the Cardinal than the Utes. Utah could certainly use a big road score right about now, but there’s time. This is Stanford’s final home meet and one of just four remaining regular-season competitions, all of which need to be at least mid-196 if Stanford is going to feel comfortable staying in the top 12. It’s still sort of early for Stanford, but it’s starting to become crunch time when the real routines need to show up, instead of just being Ebee and the 9.750s.

-Cal has starting pouring on the scores like no one’s business over the last two weeks, so this will be a delectable showdown against Oregon State to see if the balance of power really is shifting in the Pac-12. Ever since Utah joined the conference, it has been the A Team: UCLA, Utah, Stanford, and Oregon State, and the B Team: Cal, Arizona, Washington, and Arizona State. Cal has been knocking on the door for a few seasons and had that great showing a couple years ago when hosting Pac-12s, but is this the year the power dynamic truly switches and a new top four is born?

Sunday
-Team Broken Sternum visits Washington on Sunday in search of a witch doctor who can bring Katelyn Ohashi back to life and show us what this team is truly capable of. And also a much-needed road score, what with this being the team’s final road meet before Pac-12s. If Peng doesn’t hit beam…
…we won’t do anything. She’s Peng.

Also, this is a thing that happened in real life.

“The Hip Hop Gymnast” was on Ellen. Please note that she will be known as “the Hip Hop Gymnast” in all future live blogs. Sonya Meraz is becoming a household name…