Category Archives: Rankings

The Race to Tokyo – Women’s Team Qualification

This October in Stuttgart, the final 9 teams qualifying to the Olympics will be decided. But who will it be?

Using the principles of the National Team Rankings (I know, I know, I got behind and couldn’t catch up…), I ranked the contending nations based on how each country’s best-scoring group of five senior gymnasts would do in a three-scores-count format using each gymnast’s top score on each event recorded at a major international meet this year.

I do have a methodology departure from the previous National Team Rankings in that I’m using only major international meets** and excluding scores from smaller and domestic meets in order to provide a slightly more realistic impression that isn’t skewed by “I got a 14.500 on beam even though I’m getting at best a 12.700 at worlds!” national championship scores. I’m looking at you, Ukraine.

This method does cause equivalent problems of its own—Canada’s score is a little low because Moors and Olsen have competed only domestically so far in 2019, Brazil’s supply of countable routines is misleadingly paltry, etc—but there’s no perfect system.

Because this ranking is specifically about the race for the remaining 9 spots at the Olympics, I have not included the US, Russia, and China since they are already qualified. I’m also not including injured gymnasts that we know will miss worlds (like Rebeca Andrade) or gymnasts who have been deemed ineligible like Mai Murakami, in an effort to provide the most realistic picture of the race as it could play out at worlds. That means I’m saying Japan’s group of five must include the four gymnasts already named—since we know they’re going to worlds—and the fifth gymnast is selected only from those eligible through the inane selection procedures.

**I’m defining major international meets as FIG world cup events, continental championships, and larger-scale multi-nation competitions: Jesolo, Gymnix, the DTB Team Challenge, and the FIT Challenge.

1. FRANCE – 166.531
Melanie DJDS 14.433 14.033 13.733 13.833
Lorette Charpy 13.600 14.100 13.666 12.566
Marine Boyer 0.000 11.966 14.100 13.300
Coline Devillard 15.000 0.000 12.300 12.833
Carolann Heduit 13.366 13.900 11.666 12.700

166.531

43.033 42.033 41.499 39.966
If you’re using domestic scores, you’d put Juliette Bossu in there for her bars score instead of Carolann Heduit, but either way France is looking very strong right now as long as the major players stay/get healthy. This is a comfortably Olympic-level group of routines.
2. ITALY – 165.514
Alice D’Amato 14.633 14.400 12.466 12.700
Asia D’Amato 14.633 14.033 11.967 12.900
Elisa Iorio 13.633 14.300 13.350 12.633
Giorgia Villa 14.300 13.533 13.766 12.666
Lara Mori 0.000 0.000 12.633 13.866
165.514 43.566 42.733 39.749 39.466
This year, expect an Italian team packed with those new seniors to deliver the kind of scores on bars Italy hasn’t enjoyed in quite some time. I’m still a little worried about this group’s scores and consistency on beam and floor (be honest, you wouldn’t be that surprised to see one of the old standbys swoop to do those two events at worlds, would you?), but Italy is on track for its best team result in a while, and at just the right time.
3. CANADA – 165.496
Ellie Black 14.500 14.266 13.800 13.266
Ana Padurariu 13.533 14.666 14.333 13.600
Rose Woo 13.733 12.366 11.366 12.400
Victoria Woo 13.666 13.433 12.600 12.833
Laurie Denommee 13.566 12.866 13.133 13.100
165.496 41.899 42.365 41.266 39.966
Once Moors and Olsen compete at Pan Ams, we’ll have a better sense of how they influence the team score because they’d certainly be included in the best five (plugging in their scores from nationals, Canada would zoom to the top, but scores from Canadian Nationals, especially on floor, are notoriously 5-ish tenths higher than reality). Either way, Canada is in an exceptionally solid position for Olympic team qualification. Shouldn’t be a problem at all.
4. GREAT BRITAIN – 164.664
Alice Kinsella 14.200 13.800 13.566 13.100
Ellie Downie 14.500 14.066 13.333 13.466
Amelie Morgan 14.100 13.900 13.033 12.666
Claudia Fragapane 0.000 0.000 0.000 13.600
Phoebe Jakubczyk 13.558 11.733 11.700 12.833
164.664 42.800 41.766 39.932 40.166
Great Britain hasn’t done a ton of non-domestic competing so far this year, but when they have, it’s been successful (like the European Championship), so this ends up being pretty close to a first choice team, just probably with a Fenton or a Simm or a Becky in there. Or more than one.
5. NETHERLANDS – 163.847
Sanna Veerman 14.100 14.133 12.166 11.833
Eythora Thorsdottir 13.600 13.866 13.550 13.666
Tisha Volleman 14.000 13.000 12.366 13.333
Naomi Visser 13.800 14.100 13.433 13.200
Sara van Disseldorp 13.366 12.200 12.666 12.733
163.847 41.900 42.099 39.649 40.199
Netherlands has put up some reassuring performances recently, and if van Gerner gets back and Lieke continues this trajectory in her return as well, this can be a very formidable group.
6. BELGIUM – 162.963
Maellyse Brassart 13.600 13.300 13.166 13.100
Jade Vansteenkiste 13.733 12.866 11.333 13.233
Fien Enghels 0.000 14.200 13.033 12.866
Nina Derwael 13.566 15.233 13.633 13.066
Dorien Motten 13.666 0.000 0.000 11.866
162.963 40.999 42.733 39.832 39.399
We have seen a change this year for Belgium, an introduction of depth. For the last quad+, Belgium has fielded a competitive team, but an exact specific five had to be healthy (and as Mys and Waem left, Kinkcaert and Brassart took their places in that five). If people like Hermans and Klinckaert were out (as we’ve seen recently), Belgium just wouldn’t have a team score. Now, new seniors like Enghels and Vansteenkiste have come in to give Belgium a little more buffer for someone critical being out.
7. GERMANY – 162.514
Kim Bui 13.800 14.400 12.766 13.233
Elisabeth Seitz 14.500 14.233 12.466 13.200
Pauline Schäfer 13.450 13.266 13.666 0.000
Isabelle Stingl 13.600 11.333 12.566 13.050
Leah Grießer 13.133 13.150 12.800 12.800
162.514 41.900 41.899 39.232 39.483
Germany really should be one of the 9 qualifying teams at worlds this year and is too talented not to make the Olympics as a full squad—Seitz, Schäfer, Bui, Scheder, Voss is still such a formidable-seeming group—but what we’re seeing right now is a German team that’s exceptionally reliant on a select group of veterans all being healthy at the same time. You worry whether that next generation of backup routines/future stars is coming along or not.
8.  AUSTRALIA – 160.633
Georgia-Rose Brown 13.700 13.633 12.266 12.400
Emily Whitehead 13.633 13.233 12.833 12.500
Emma Nedov 13.333 13.333 14.100 13.033
Elena Chipizubov 12.866 12.166 13.200 12.766
Georgia Godwin 13.733 13.500 13.266 12.766
160.663 41.066 40.466 40.566 38.565
This spring, we’ve seen an Australia squad that’s attempting to make a push out of the borderline territory and into the qualifying group of 9. This 8th-place position is therefore encouraging, the lingering issue being that Japan and Brazil are both lurking below Australia here…for reasons that we’ll get to. 
9. JAPAN – 160.464
Asuka Teramoto* 14.600 13.266 13.333 13.600
Hitomi Hatakeda* 13.933 13.566 12.900 12.300
Aiko Sugihara* 14.100 12.866 13.000 12.000
Nagi Kajita* 13.033 11.766 11.366 12.833
Ayaka Sakaguchi 14.100 0.000 0.000 0.000
160.464 42.800 39.698 39.233 38.733
The * indicates athletes who have been named to the worlds team already and therefore must be included here. This is, of course, not the highest-scoring possible team Japan could come up with, but if they stick to these selection procedures, it could be the team that happens. Of the remaining eligible athletes, Ayaka Sakaguchi or Kiko Kuwajima seem to make the most sense for that last spot because they can deliver a DTY and a beam and floor routine, though they’ve only rarely competed outside of domestic competitions. Still expect Japan to be a couple points better than this, but it is perhaps worth being a little concerned if they send a team like this.
10. UKRAINE – 160.463
Valeria Osipova 13.933 12.400 12.266 12.400
Anastasia Bachynska 14.000 13.566 13.533 12.700
Diana Varinska 13.500 13.966 12.866 12.966
Angelina Radivilova 13.900 12.367 13.333 13.033
Yana Fedorova 13.555 12.667 10.600 11.100
160.463 41.833 40.199 39.732 38.699
Ukraine should be considered a major outsider for an Olympic spot, but the team is quite a bit better than last year’s 20th-place showing would indicate (they didn’t have a particularly great competition and didn’t yet have Bachynska). If Varinska and Bachynska both have legit meets at the same time, the score can be competitive.
11. BRAZIL – 159.445
Flavia Saraiva 14.600 13.266 13.033 13.666
Thais Fidelis 13.566 12.300 12.933 13.266
Carolyne Pedro 13.733 12.566 12.233 12.933
Jade Barbosa 0.000 13.650 0.000 0.000
X 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
159.445 41.899 39.482 38.166 39.865
Things are not quite as dire as all this, even without Andrade. Brazil went all-in on a very specific group of gymnasts in international meets early in the year, so there’s not a lot of backup scores to use right now. If you were to give the team the scores from Lorrane Oliveira and Jade Barbosa from nationals (high but still), they’re in the mid 162s, which is probably more reflective of where this team is without Andrade. In the 9, but not safely so.
12. HUNGARY – 159.281
Sara Peter 14.533 0.000 9.450 12.533
Nora Feher 12.966 13.550 12.800 12.466
Dorina Böczögo 13.750 12.650 0.000 13.000
Csenge Bacskay 14.100 0.000 12.266 11.733
Zsofia Kovacs 13.933 14.000 13.450 11.333
159.281 42.566 40.200 38.516 37.999
We’ve seen from Hungary’s team results in Europe this quad that the potential for contention is there. This is not yet a top-12 country, but Hungary has a good crop of new seniors this year and should be at least somewhere in the vicinity of the qualification spots at worlds.
13. ROMANIA – 158.730
Iulia Berar 13.266 12.533 12.950 0.000
Carmen Ghiciuc 13.466 11.933 13.100 10.933
Denisa Golgota 14.500 12.966 13.500 13.866
Ana Maria Puiu 13.600 12.100 13.233 12.900
Maria Holbura 13.233 11.300 12.533 12.966
158.730 41.566 37.599 39.833 39.732
Romania will not arrive at worlds with the expectation of Olympic qualification, but the way things have been going, the fact that it’s not completely out of the question feels like a win.
14. SPAIN – 158.446
Alba Petsico 13.600 12.566 12.033 12.766
Laura Bechdeju 13.400 13.100 12.033 13.250
Ana Perez 13.666 13.733 12.733 13.500
Nora Fernandez 13.766 13.266 11.500 11.600
Cintia Rodriguez 13.333 12.333 13.033 12.733
161.682 41.032 40.099 37.799 39.516
There’s some hearty talent in this generation of Spanish gymnasts, and a few newbies who are showing competitive scores on select pieces. There’s probably not enough depth to get up into the fancy places, but the scores haven’t been too, too far away so far this year.

Right now, I would say the next tier is countries like South Korea, Switzerland, and Mexico, but they’re currently a step lower, closer to a 154 kind of team total based on the scores so far in 2019

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Final NQS Scenarios


1. Oklahoma Sooners

NQS: 198.115
Previous ranking: 1

Road Score 1: 198.200
Road Score 2: 198.075
Road Score 3: 198.050
Home/Road Score 1: 198.325
Home/Road Score 2: 198.275
Home/Road Score 3: 197.975
NQS: 198.115

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 198.185

Oklahoma recorded its 5th 198 of the season in defeating Alabama over the weekend, clinching the overall #1 ranking for the postseason and leaving only one question—whether the team can use its performance at Big 12s to break the all-time RQS (NQS…) record of 198.120, set by Oklahoma last season. That requires a score of 198.000 to tie, 198.025 to break.


2. UCLA Bruins

NQS: 197.885
Previous ranking: 2

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.900
Road Score 3: 197.700
Home/Road Score 1: 198.325
Home/Road Score 2: 198.025
Home/Road Score 3: 197.775
NQS: 197.885

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 198.010

UCLA’s “we’re honoring Miss Val by being all over the place” competition did nothing to change the team’s NQS, but because the NQS was high enough to begin with, UCLA is already set at finishing the season #2 regardless of what happens at the conference championship.


3. LSU Tigers

NQS: 197.680
Previous ranking: 4

Road Score 1: 198.175
Road Score 2: 197.450
Road Score 3: 197.250
Home/Road Score 1: 198.150
Home/Road Score 2: 197.900
Home/Road Score 3: 197.650
NQS: 197.475

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.865
Possible ranking range: 3-4

Our first shakeup in the rankings comes as a result of LSU traveling to the land that COP forgot to score a 198.175 at Arizona, just enough to pass up Florida for #3 in the rankings and therefore get Olympic order in the evening session at the SEC Championship. LSU will be looking to score a 197.950 at SECs, the number required to clinch this ranking position regardless of Florida’s score. Since SECs are in New Orleans this year, LSU will enjoy the benefit of being the de facto home team while also getting to use the number as a road score. 


4. Florida Gators

NQS: 197.675
Previous ranking: 3

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.500
Road Score 3: 197.325
Home/Road Score 1: 198.025
Home/Road Score 2: 197.850
Home/Road Score 3: 197.675
NQS: 197.675

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.815
Possible ranking range: 3-4

With a week off, Florida was not able to improve its NQS and has fallen behind LSU in the rankings. Florida will also not be able to control its own destiny for that #3 ranking position as LSU has the higher maximum possible NQS following SEC Championships. Which means that Florida could win SECs and still find itself ranked below LSU if the meet is super close and both teams are getting season-high-type scores, allowing LSU to take advantage of having that higher maximum. Florida’s goal will be to win SECs by more than a tenth AND have LSU stay below that 197.950 marker. If both teams go 198, LSU is staying ahead regardless of who wins.


5. Denver Pioneers

NQS: 197.540
Previous ranking: 5

Road Score 1: 197.775
Road Score 2: 197.450
Road Score 3: 197.225
Home/Road Score 1: 197.725
Home/Road Score 2: 197.675
Home/Road Score 3: 197.625
NQS: 197.540

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.650

Denver ventured back out on the road over the weekend to score a perfectly acceptable low 197, enough to improve the team’s NQS and stay at #5 but not enough to challenge the higher-ranked teams. Denver is now one of the set teams—able to go no higher and no lower than 5th regardless of the score at Big 12s.


6. Utah Utes

NQS: 197.375
Previous ranking: 6

Road Score 1: 197.450
Road Score 2: 197.375
Road Score 3: 197.250
Home/Road Score 1: 197.975
Home/Road Score 2: 197.625
Home/Road Score 3: 197.175
NQS: 197.375

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.535
Possible ranking range: 6-8

Utah scored a road season high against Georgia, but as the final score was 197.450, it didn’t make a huge dent against the other teams in this portion of the rankings. We can expect a big number at Pac-12s (once again, Utah as the de facto home team for a road meet), and Utah will need a least a moderately solid number because even though the Utes can move no higher than 6th this weekend, there is still a threat from Georgia and Michigan. That threat can be snuffed out by Utah scoring 197.425 at Pac-12s.


Continue reading Final NQS Scenarios

Ranking Watch: Week 10


1. Oklahoma Sooners

NQS: 198.025
Previous ranking: 1

Road Score 1: 198.200
Road Score 2: 198.075
Road Score 3: 198.050
Home/Road Score 1: 198.325
Home/Road Score 2: 197.975
Home/Road Score 3: 197.825
NQS: 198.025

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 198.125
Meets remaining: 3
Road meets remaining: 1

Oklahoma’s return to the land of the 198s over the weekend brought the team NQS over the 198 barrier—making Oklahoma the 5th team in history to achieve that feat, following Oklahoma 2017 and 2018 and UCLA 2003 and 2004. We’re now back on record watch, as Oklahoma could match its own all-time NQS record (198.120) at today’s meet against Iowa State with a score of 198.300 and would break it with a 198.325. Absolutely possible the way things have been going. Oklahoma is already guaranteed to be safely at #1 heading into conference championships regardless of what happens until then.

Now, about the absences of Trautman and Nichols (on two events). You would think Oklahoma is not going to score 198s in real life if that keeps up into elimination meets, but also nothing matters anymore and there are no deductions, so whatever.


2. UCLA Bruins

NQS: 197.885
Previous ranking: 2

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.900
Road Score 3: 197.700
Home/Road Score 1: 198.325
Home/Road Score 2: 198.025
Home/Road Score 3: 197.775
NQS: 197.885

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.995
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

UCLA notched its 5th-best score in program history on Sunday with a 198.325 against Stanford—a marked improvement over the showing against Oklahoma the previous week but also one where the score overpromises on the quality of the performance, surprise surprise. This result further entrenches UCLA in that #2 position as no one else can come very close to catching the Bruins this weekend. UCLA also cannot catch Oklahoma, even if VAL! 2019 is evaluated exactly as we expect it to be next Saturday.


3. Florida Gators

NQS: 197.675
Previous ranking: 3

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.500
Road Score 3: 197.325
Home/Road Score 1: 198.025
Home/Road Score 2: 197.850
Home/Road Score 3: 197.675
NQS: 197.675

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.815
Meets remaining: 1
Road meets remaining: 1

Florida snatched its second 198 of the season in its home finale, though things are not quite as solid for Florida heading into the final weekend of non-championship meets since Florida will be on a rest week. Probably a nice idea before SECs, but it does mean that Florida is potentially vulnerable to losing the #3 ranking if things go just, just right for LSU. LSU would need to match its season high with a 198.150+ on the road at Arizona to pass Florida—so not easy but not impossible.


4. LSU Tigers

NQS: 197.475
Previous ranking: 4

Road Score 1: 197.450
Road Score 2: 197.250
Road Score 3: 197.125
Home/Road Score 1: 198.150
Home/Road Score 2: 197.900
Home/Road Score 3: 197.650
NQS: 197.475

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.680
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Not to be outdone, LSU was the 4th team to manage a 198 over the weekend, going 198.150 in its home finale for a top-5 score in program history and opening up the possibility of passing Florida for #3 this weekend as noted above. It’s the flat road scores that have kept LSU from challenging the top three, and an opportunity to rectify that has now been presented.

But. LSU must also worry about getting passed this weekend. Despite having a higher peak NQS than Denver and therefore controlling the situation, Denver still has quite a low road score to get rid of and is therefore more likely to improve its NQS by a larger amount. If Denver manages another season high, LSU is going to need to go 198s again to guarantee staying at #4. LSU is also potentially vulnerable to Utah but would have to put up an unusably low number for that to come into play.


5. Denver Pioneers

NQS: 197.365
Previous ranking: 6

Road Score 1: 197.775
Road Score 2: 197.450
Road Score 3: 196.350
Home/Road Score 1: 197.725
Home/Road Score 2: 197.675
Home/Road Score 3: 197.625
NQS: 197.365

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.650
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Our first change in the rankings this week comes with Denver jumping up into the #5 spot ahead of an idle Utah team. Despite recording one of the top 5 scores in program history (ALMOST LIKE A THEME!), Denver did not improve its NQS too much because the team already had three home scores among the top scores in program history. There wasn’t much to change. There will be much to change, however, this next weekend on the road since Denver still has that low 196 road score flapping around in there. Even if the road score are a little more conservative next week, that 196.350 is infinitely beatable and Denver presenting a threat to LSU is realistic. Utah, meanwhile, does present a threat to Denver this week, Denver looking to score 196.950 to be assured of retaining #5.


6. Utah Utes

NQS: 197.315
Previous ranking: 5

Road Score 1: 197.375
Road Score 2: 197.250
Road Score 3: 197.150
Home/Road Score 1: 197.975
Home/Road Score 2: 197.625
Home/Road Score 3: 197.175
NQS: 197.315

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.480
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Utah dropped a spot to Denver by not competing over the weekend, though #6 may be the new normal because Utah has a much lower peak NQS after the coming meets than LSU and Denver do. Denver has totally upended that LSU/Utah regional showdown the rankings had been pointing toward for so many weeks. Whether Utah has a shot to get back to #5 this week is in Denver’s hands, even if Utah’s visit to Georgia on Saturday is scored exactly as you expect it to be. Utah will also be focused on staying ahead of Michigan, which can be assured with a 197.550. 


Continue reading Ranking Watch: Week 10

Ranking Watch: Week 9

OK.

Sigh.

I’ve given in to calling it NQS. But I’m not happy about it and will still call it RQS most of the time. It’s still the SCORE used to determine who QUALIFIES to REGIONALS. Regional Qualifying Score. 


1. Oklahoma Sooners

NQS: 197.940
Previous ranking: 1

Road Score 1: 198.075
Road Score 2: 198.050
Road Score 3: 197.975
Home/Road Score 1: 198.325
Home/Road Score 2: 197.825
Home/Road Score 3: 197.775
NQS: 197.940

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 198.050
Meets remaining: 4
Road meets remaining: 2

Oklahoma improves its NQS only slightly this week after the solid-but-non-invincible 197.775 scored in victory over UCLA. That score replaced a previous 197.700 but is still the low number Oklahoma that will be looking to drop this coming weekend, a two-meet road trip against Michigan on Saturday and Iowa State on Monday. Nichols returned on bars and beam, though it was beam that proved to be the culprit in keeping Oklahoma away from the 198s this week rather than floor, which looked more composed and improved even without Nichols once again. As last week, Oklahoma is already locked at #1 for next Monday’s rankings regardless of the events of this weekend.


2. UCLA Bruins

NQS: 197.800
Previous ranking: 2

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.900
Road Score 3: 197.700
Home/Road Score 1: 198.025
Home/Road Score 2: 197.775
Home/Road Score 3: 197.600
NQS: 197.800

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.885
Meets remaining: 3
Road meets remaining: 1

No change for UCLA this week following the 197.575 in a loss to Oklahoma, an acceptable score but not one that got into the top 6 team scores on the season. UCLA showed some solid improvements on floor but was a little too blah in the first half of the meet, particularly in those final cast handstands on bars, to earn the right to challenge Oklahoma—or a countable road score. Because this 197.800 NQS is already quite high, UCLA cannot be caught at #2 this coming weekend.


3. Florida Gators

NQS: 197.545
Previous ranking: 3

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.500
Road Score 3: 197.325
Home/Road Score 1: 197.850
Home/Road Score 2: 197.675
Home/Road Score 3: 197.375
NQS: 197.545

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.675
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

Florida suffered a similar fate to UCLA in that a no-vault-for-you road score of 197.225 was not enough to change the NQS picture this week. That means Florida is now guaranteed to count both a 197.675 and a 197.500, which will make it difficult to move up higher than third even with 198s in the remaining two meets since UCLA has all of those 197.7+ scores. Though not impossible. Like the top 2, Florida is already safe at #3 for next week’s rankings.


4. LSU Tigers

NQS: 197.380
Previous ranking: 4

Road Score 1: 197.450
Road Score 2: 197.250
Road Score 3: 197.125
Home/Road Score 1: 197.900
Home/Road Score 2: 197.650
Home/Road Score 3: 197.425
NQS: 197.380

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.475
Meets remaining: 3
Road meets remaining: 2

LSU finally got its score, using the cracky top-3-team home evaluation the squad had been dreaming about for weeks to snatch a season high and ensure that the team remained at #4 despite being under threat from both Utah and Denver. This weekend, LSU stays at home to face Oregon State and will therefore have to wait to get rid of those remaining low-197 road scores. Focus will once again be on retaining the #4 spot, which is almost in the bag but not entirely. If LSU goes sub-197.450 and Denver gets a season high at the same time, then Denver could pass up LSU for #4, but it’s a fairly long shot.


5. Utah Utes

NQS: 197.315
Previous ranking: 5

Road Score 1: 197.375
Road Score 2: 197.250
Road Score 3: 197.150
Home/Road Score 1: 197.975
Home/Road Score 2: 197.625
Home/Road Score 3: 197.175
NQS: 197.315

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.480
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Facing a similar threat from Denver, Utah had to get a season high against Michigan on Saturday to retain its #5 ranking and did so with a Happy Senior Day 197.975 of its own. All is safe for now. But, Utah does not compete this coming weekend so will be enitrely at the mercy of Denver as to whether #5 can be retained for another week.


Continue reading Ranking Watch: Week 9

National Team Rankings – March 2019

How It Works
Taking into account all scores recorded at competitions in the last six months, each nation is given a team total based on how its best-scoring group of five senior gymnasts would do in a hypothetical 3-up, 3-count team final.

Each individual’s best scores may come from any official competition (they need not all be from the same meet), and whichever group of five gymnasts would produce the highest score is the one selected.

Countries that have not shown enough senior routines in the last six months to fill a 3-up, 3-count team on each event are not included.

Rankings will be updated at the beginning of each month, and scores will expire after six months in order to provide the most up-to-date snapshot of where nations are at the current moment. The current rankings include only scores from September 2018–February 2019.

Last month’s ranking is in parentheses. Continue reading National Team Rankings – March 2019

NCAA Week 8 Rankings and RQS Update

We’re supposed to pretend we’re interested in calling it NQS now instead of RQS—mostly because the new system has individual qualifiers to regionals decided based on their national rankings instead of their regional rankings, making regional classification even less important than it was before—but also like meh. This score still determines who qualifies to regionals, so RQS it is.


1. Oklahoma Sooners

RQS: 197.925
Previous ranking: 1

Road Score 1: 198.075
Road Score 2: 198.050
Road Score 3: 197.975
Home/Road Score 1: 198.325
Home/Road Score 2: 197.825
Home/Road Score 3: 197.700
RQS: 197.925

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 198.050
Meets remaining: 5
Road meets remaining: 2

Oklahoma retains the #1 ranking this week by a sizable but dwindling margin after recording a no-Nichols, no-Showers 197.150 on Sunday at West Virginia, a semi-miss of a meet with issues on both beam and floor—though no counting falls. Oklahoma cannot afford absences as significant as this and still be a championship-winning team. That we’ve learned. But also duh. While having lost some ground to UCLA, Oklahoma will still retain the #1 ranking next Monday regardless of what happens in the meet between the two on Sunday.


2. UCLA Bruins

RQS: 197.800
Previous ranking: 2

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.900
Road Score 3: 197.700
Home/Road Score 1: 198.025
Home/Road Score 2: 197.775
Home/Road Score 3: 197.600
RQS: 197.800

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 197.885
Meets remaining: 4
Road meets remaining: 2

Well, it wasn’t boring. (Dear world, holding newspapers in front of your face is harmless and nothing and also welcome to sports and get over it, and MyKayla Skinner absolutely was not underscored and to imply Utah—UTAH—is somehow a poor, oppressed minority that the judges hate is wildly disingenuous. There is no war on Christmas. Now, everyone go in from recess.) Anyway, for all the noise around Utah/UCLA, what really happened is that UCLA performed better gymnastics than Utah did and secured its status in the first tier of teams with a season-high-tying 198.025. What that score served to do is entrench UCLA at #2, unable to be caught by Florida or any other team this coming weekend.


3. Florida Gators

RQS: 197.545
Previous ranking: 3

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.500
Road Score 3: 197.325
Home/Road Score 1: 197.850
Home/Road Score 2: 197.675
Home/Road Score 3: 197.375
RQS: 197.545

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 197.685
Meets remaining: 3
Road meets remaining: 2

It feels like 80 lifetimes ago that Florida lost to Georgia in the “Carol doesn’t know how to make the email box work” meet, a meet in which Florida was fine-but-kind-of-off in the early going, Things really changed when Florida counted a pretty large mistake on beam to allow Georgia into the meet, without the benefit of a home buffer since both teams were being scored with the same rose-colored code. With those other high 197s, however, Florida will be safe at #3 for another week regardless of what happens this weekend.


4. LSU Tigers

RQS: 197.280
Previous ranking: 5

Road Score 1: 197.450
Road Score 2: 197.250
Road Score 3: 197.125
Home/Road Score 1: 197.650
Home/Road Score 2: 197.425
Home/Road Score 3: 197.150
RQS: 197.280

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 197.380
Meets remaining: 4
Road meets remaining: 2

LSU will hardly be pleased with the 197.125 recorded against Arkansas, with less-than-perfect showings across the board bringing the score down to a level that LSU will hope to drop in the coming weeks. Nonetheless, this 197 meant that LSU could drop a low 196 from January that was still hanging around and therefore move ahead of Utah in the rankings. LSU is in some vague danger of falling behind Utah and Denver this weekend but can avert that danger and guarantee staying at #4 by scoring a 197.350, which really isn’t a lot to ask.


5. Utah Utes

RQS: 197.220
Previous ranking: 4

Road Score 1: 197.375
Road Score 2: 197.250
Road Score 3: 197.150
Home/Road Score 1: 197.625
Home/Road Score 2: 197.175
Home/Road Score 3: 197.150
RQS: 197.220

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 197.315
Meets remaining: 3
Road meets remaining: 2

Despite recording a season high in the loss to UCLA, Utah loses a single place in the rankings because that season high is dropped as part of RQS calculation and the remaining scores were all already pretty similar. That better score, however, does give Utah a bit higher ceiling and the opportunity to pass LSU this weekend should things go just right. Even so, LSU has the higher maximum possible RQS so will be the team determining how that plays out. The new twist is that Utah now also has to watch out for Denver, which could catch Utah with another big result as long as Utah also returns to the lower 197s against Michigan. 


Continue reading NCAA Week 8 Rankings and RQS Update

NCAA Week 7 – RQS Outlook

You can check out the official rankings for week 7 as always at RTN, but instead of the true rankings this week, I’m going to take a prospective look at where teams currently stand in terms of RQS, which will take over for season average beginning next Monday. This is where they would be ranked if RQS were in place now. Bold scores must be retained as part of the six RQS totals and can no longer be dropped.


1. Oklahoma Sooners

RQS: 197.925
Official week 7 ranking: 1

Road Score 1: 198.075
Road Score 2: 198.050
Road Score 3: 197.975
Home/Road Score 1: 198.325
Home/Road Score 2: 197.825
Home/Road Score 3: 197.700
RQS: 197.925

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 198.050
Meets remaining: 6
Road meets remaining: 3

Oklahoma is fine for RQS, obviously, already maintaining what is nearly a three-tenth lead over 2nd-place UCLA (a lead equivalent to 1.400 in pure meet scores), with six meets remaining to improve on all of these numbers and chase the RQS record of 198.120, set by this team last season. That feat looks quite doable at this point.


2. UCLA Bruins

RQS: 197.645
Official week 7 ranking: 2

Road Score 1: 197.900
Road Score 2: 197.700
Road Score 3: 197.600
Home/Road Score 1: 198.025
Home/Road Score 2: 197.775
Home/Road Score 3: 197.250
RQS: 197.645

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 197.800
Meets remaining: 5
Road meets remaining: 3

UCLA has one remaining score that it would prefer to drop—that 197.250 from the very first meet of the year that’s still hanging around—but once that happens, UCLA should be comfortable for a top-3 finish this season. It would be quite difficult to catch Oklahoma at this point since Oklahoma already has three 198s and more meets remaining than UCLA does, but either 2nd or 3rd looks solid.


3. Florida Gators

RQS: 197.530
Official week 7 ranking: 3

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.500
Road Score 3: 197.325
Home/Road Score 1: 197.850
Home/Road Score 2: 197.675
Home/Road Score 3: 197.300
RQS: 197.530

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 197.675
Meets remaining: 4
Road meets remaining: 2

Florida has fewer meets left than the other top teams since the Gators will take a week off of competition before the SEC Championship, but that’s not proving to be a problem this year because the scores are already solid. Last season, Florida was on serious road-score watch, but we’ve seen a change this year as the road scores have mostly mimicked the home performances. To catch UCLA, though, those two 197.3s will have to go in the next couple meets. 


4. Utah Utes

RQS: 197.170
Official week 7 ranking: 4

Road Score 1: 197.375
Road Score 2: 197.250
Road Score 3: 197.150
Home/Road Score 1: 197.125
Home/Road Score 2: 197.150
Home/Road Score 3: 197.125
RQS: 197.170

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 197.220
Meets remaining: 4
Road meets remaining: 2

Utah will also have a weekend off in March and therefore has just four meets left instead of five. The streak of 197s that has received so much attention is keeping Utah in comfortable stead for RQS, with nothing nasty that needs to be dropped. But, you’ll note that there’s already a 197.375 and 197.250 that cannot be dropped. For the teams ranked above Utah, those are the low scores on the slate that we still very much expect to be dropped, which is why it would be exceptionally difficult for Utah to move beyond 4th this season, even if the high 197s start coming now. The ranking goal will to maintain this spot in the 4-5 regional. 


5. LSU Tigers

RQS: 197.110
Official week 7 ranking: 5

Road Score 1: 197.450
Road Score 2: 197.250
Road Score 3: 196.275
Home/Road Score 1: 197.650
Home/Road Score 2: 197.425
Home/Road Score 3: 197.150
RQS: 197.110

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 197.385
Meets remaining: 5
Road meets remaining: 3

LSU currently sits behind Utah, primarily the result of that 196.275 that still has to count as one of the road scores. LSU will be optimistic about its chance to catch Utah this weekend, however, because the team heads to Arkansas with a chance to drop that tiny road score and replace it with something much better. Even a 196.850 would guarantee LSU jumping up to 4th on Monday’s rankings. LSU has three scores higher than Utah’s peak so far this season, so the 4-5 advantage sits with LSU right now.


Continue reading NCAA Week 7 – RQS Outlook