National Rankings – Week of January 16th
1. Nebraska – 197.375
2. Utah – 196.713
3. Arkansas – 196.550
4. Oregon State – 196.525
5. Alabama – 196.475
6. Georgia – 196.425
7. UCLA – 196.375
8. Florida – 196.100
9. Penn State – 195.950
10. Oklahoma – 195.925
11. Michigan – 195.500
12. Ohio State – 195.275
13. Arizona – 195.150
14. Stanford – 194.900
15. Illinois – 194.725
16. Denver – 194.463
17. Boise State – 194.400
18. NC State – 194.363
19. San Jose State – 194.300
20. Auburn – 194.288
21. West Virginia – 194.263
22. Missouri – 194.100
23. Maryland – 194.038
24. Minnesota – 193.938
25. LSU – 193.763

As always, full rankings at Troester

Not much can be gleaned from these rankings as they are the definition of a small sample size, with some teams having competed in only one meet.  Nonetheless, that will not stop me from over-analyzing them.

I’m pleased to see a team like Nebraska come up with a big score in the first week, if for no other reason than it expands the conversation about the top teams, which is always a positive.  Nebraska is to be commended for accomplishing this score of 197.375 with only seven gymnasts competing, a feat that is both impressive and unsustainable.  Five gymnasts competed in the all-around, and they couldn’t even send up a sixth on floor.  We always knew this team would be sparse, but they will need to get some gymnasts healthy and cultivate some depth to be able to sustain anywhere near that score.  Right now there is no room for error.

Another team I haven’t talked about much is Oregon State, and they put up a respectable 196.525, a school record for a season opener.  We knew they would be strong on bars, but they also hit beam with a largely unheralded lineup (except for Leslie Mak) and did not appear to be missing Ranzy on floor.  Freshman Chelsea Tang also provided strong early-lineup consistency by scoring 9.8s on three events. Getting hit beam routines from those who have been uncertain in the past like Vivian and Stambaugh will be crucial to success this year.

Stanford also opened the season this weekend by disappointing on the live scores front (ahem…) and putting up a depleted team that recorded only seven scores at 9.8 or above.  In particular, it appears they will need Shapiro and Hong most desperately in the beam lineup, since they are both capable of performing exceptionally.  This is another team with little margin for error in lineups.

Next week, watch for whether Nebraska can sustain their big score from this week or whether they will fall back to the pack (Utah has a bye, so their big score will sustain them for the week).  Also watch the results from Florida and Oklahoma closely to see when these teams start to round into form as everything is still a little unpolished and uncertain.  I saw the vault rotation for Oklahoma this week and wasn’t impressed by the amplitude.  There is work to be done to contend with the teams already breaking 49.5. UCLA and Alabama are in similar situations right now, with some hugely impressive rotations mixed with some glaring weaknesses.  Both teams are capable of performing poorly and still breaking 196, but I expect to see 197s before too long.  Alabama should be on an upward trajectory, and UCLA should take some confidence from the big beam score against Cal.

The 2012 edition of the Preseason Coaches’ Poll has been released, and while we can usually file this under bushel of nonsense, this season’s poll actually provides an interesting discussion point with UCLA topping the list.

2012 Coaches’ Poll
1. UCLA (8 first-place votes)
2. Alabama (17)
3. Florida (8)
4. Oklahoma (2)
5. Utah (1)
6. Nebraska
7. Oregon State (1)
8. Stanford (1)
9. Georgia
10. Michigan (2)

Full rankings can be found at Troester.

Nearly every year, this poll is simply a meaningless exercise where the coaches crown the previous year’s champion as the preseason #1.  The only exceptions to this rule tend to happen either when the defending champion has lost a bunch of prominent seniors or when there is another team that is clearly and inarguably superior.  Interestingly enough, that exact situation occurred the last time Alabama won the title, when UCLA were named the 2003 preseason #1.  That was also the last time the defending champion was not voted preseason #1.  That 2003 decision was completely understandable given the team UCLA had that year.  This year is much less clear.

It should be noted that the coaches do appear to have attempted to follow protocol by throwing Alabama 17 first-place votes, and UCLA did only end up first by a matter of points.  Still, following tradition, Alabama should have won this easily.  Remember that Georgia was named the 2010 preseason #1 the season after they lost Yoculan, Kupets, Tolnay, etc.  If ever there was a time to question the defending champion, it was then.  (But they are also Georgia, and that meant means something).

The way this poll played out appears to indicate that UCLA was near the top of most every coach’s rankings, earning them a bunch of points even with only 8 first-place votes.  Alabama, on the other hand, must have by ranked lower by certain coaches.  How badly to you want to see every coach’s list?  I know that goes against the purpose of the poll, but come on.  It would be so great.

The controversy at the top notwithstanding, the first 3 schools are the ones who should be there, and Oklahoma is a very deserving #4.  I’m a bit surprised that Nebraska is up at 6th, having lost some important athletes (namely Erin Davis), but DeZiel is a big get for them, so we’ll see.  Stanford got one first-place vote again, but I’m more concerned for the two votes for a Kylee Botterman-less Michigan.  Coaches, we need to talk.