Full NQS Tracker with regionals projections

Any scores in BOLD can no longer be dropped.

In somewhat controversial fashion, Florida elected to go with a couple backup routines against Oklahoma over the weekend, a meet that produced a 197.700. It’s a counting road score, but it’s the lowest counter that Florida has on the slate for now.  Next Sunday’s road meet and SECs both provide chances to improve on that 197.7, but Florida is now also guaranteed to count two (gasp) sub-198 scores, which gives Michigan the advantage in the race for 2nd. Florida would really love a road score of the 198.2 variety this week to better match Michigan’s road scores and also guarantee staying ahead of Utah.

No change for Utah in the NQS department this week as the senior night 197.925 was not high enough to count as a home score. To have a shot at going any higher than 4th, Utah will have to put in some higher road numbers, though the main goal for the moment will probably be staying ahead of UCLA for the top ranking at the Pac-12 Championship. Utah has the higher maximum NQS after this week and can therefore guarantee the top spot at Pac-12s with a 198.200, but that’s quite a score and anything lower would be at least slightly vulnerable to the Bruins.

With two falls on floor on Friday, Alabama put up a non-counter and missed an opportunity to move up in the rankings. That opportunity recreates itself this coming Friday, when Alabama will have another opportunity to drop that 196.975. But Alabama really does need to put up a counting number because all of these 198s flapping around for the 10-13 teams all of a sudden mean that many teams have an outside chance to catch Alabama this week if Alabama has another non-counter and they repeat their 198s.

A Suni-absent non-counter over the weekend (the team’s second consecutive mid-196 road score) has created some real ranking trouble for Auburn. Competing at home this weekend does provide the opportunity to snatch a big number, but it also means that Auburn cannot drop that road 197.200 and is at least a little vulnerable—and in some cases a lot vulnerable—to being passed by Michigan State, Denver, Kentucky, and Oregon State, with a lower maximum NQS than all of them after this weekend. Watch that space, as Auburn looks increasingly likely to be the #3 regionals seed no one wants to draw.

Hi, Michigan State gets 198s now. Sunday’s program record 198.225 elevated Michigan State into the top 10—and allows for the opportunity to move up even more if things go right this weekend. With a 197.500 on Saturday, Michigan State would guarantee moving ahead of Auburn. It would take 198.175 to guarantee not being passed by anyone else (more on Kentucky in a moment), which would be quite the back-to-back result, but at this point MSU will consider that Auburn-passing 197.500 very doable.

Hi, Denver gets 198s now. And also experienced the joy of getting a program-record score and falling one spot in the rankings thanks to what Michigan State put together. Denver’s Auburn-passing goal score this week is 197.725, which the team has not yet done in a road context but surely isn’t an out-of-this-world aim at this point. Since Michigan State and Kentucky have higher maximums after this weekend than Denver, moving ahead of Auburn would be the one way Denver can guarantee not losing more ground in the rankings.

Kentucky’s secret weapon is that road 196.575 that can be dropped this week with a hit. That’s why Kentucky’s Auburn-passing score is a mere 197.225, which takes on extra significance for Kentucky since passing Auburn would mean a #4 seed at the SEC Championship and a spot in the evening session, bumping Auburn to the afternoon. Kentucky can also guarantee a ranking ahead of #11 Denver this week with another 197.675.

Oregon State heads into its final regular season meet, at home against Utah, with a somewhat lower maximum NQS than MSU, Denver, or Kentucky and will therefore be dependent on those teams scores for any chance to pass them. But, it would be possible for Oregon State to guarantee passing Auburn with another 198.075 to match the program record from two weeks ago. Oregon State is safe at least in 13th this week and cannot drop any lower regardless of result.

Arizona State used another giant score to move up a spot and into 14th this week. Enough of a gap exists that it will not be possible for ASU to catch Oregon State for an evening spot at Pac-12s or move up any farther in the rankings this week, but it will also be possible for ASU to sew up 14th place for another week with a 197.275.

Ohio State took advantage of its two-meet weekend, particularly with Sunday’s 197.600, to gain a spot and move to 15th. It’s still a precarious position with regard to regionals seeding since Missouri is a quality team sitting there in 17th, so Ohio State will be eager to improve on those road 196.7s and not let Missouri have a look in. A 197.450 this week would be enough to guarantee staying in the top 16 for the moment regardless of what anyone else does. 

Arkansas put together a complete hit for the first time in a while over the weekend, which proved enough to move into the coveted top 16. Arkansas and #17 Missouri have basically the same maximum NQS after this weekend, which should be fun, though Arkansas has a lower score to drop so doesn’t have to pop off quite as much as Missouri does in order to have a top-16 ranking next Monday. Either way, it’s going to be very close and going to come down to SECs. 

Missouri got the short end of the stick this week, going 197.075 and dropping three ranking spots, all the way out of the top 16, because a 197.0 is bad now. Competing at home this weekend, Missouri can’t get rid of that lowest road score yet but still has a realistic shot at catching someone (or someones) in the 14-16 zone with a huge 197. Mostly, this week is about setting themselves up to make a big push with a high road number at SECs.

Georgia’s ceiling fell this week, and no that’s not a euphemism. The literal ceiling fell in Stegeman, forcing Georgia to move its final meets to Duluth, which will also host the SEC Championship. Having Sunday’s meet suddenly count as a road score was a useful development for NQS, though Georgia has an uphill climb to get into the top 16 at this point. Season highs and help is what it will take. 

Minnesota is the final team with a shot to move into the top 16 after this week’s meets, though it’s only a very outside shot. Minnesota’s maximum NQS after this weekend is 197.005, so it would pretty much require a season high and everyone 16-18 not getting a counter.  

Maximum NQS after Friday’s meet: 196.725

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.715

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.810

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.750

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.710

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.750

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.600

Western Michigan made a big jump this week and has a chance to get out of the play-in meet risk pile by replacing one of those 195s this coming weekend.

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.620

By ranking, Arizona would currently be the first team dumped into the playoff meets. Geographical placement means it doesn’t always work like that, but you can’t rely on the luck of the nonsense. So with two meets this weekend, Arizona will be eager to catch at least one team ranked ahead in order to, maybe, avoid the play-in fate.

Maximum NQS after Friday’s meet: 196.485

Towson is currently safe for the top 36 this week regardless of what happens but, much like Arizona, would prefer to use this double-meet weekend to try to get out of a potential play-in meet. Geographically, getting ahead of NC State by the end of conference championships would do Towson the most good because they’ll probably go to the same regional.

Maximum NQS after Friday’s meet: 196.415

The most basic goal for Boise State right now will be a 195.875, which would mean they cannot be bumped out of the top 36 this week, but they’ll be on the lookout for more than just a 195.

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.450

A big two-meet weekend saw San Jose move into the regionals positions, and not a bad spot at all in 32nd. Now, to do it again. A 196.100 on Friday would see SJSU stay in the regionals spots for another week. 

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.370

Essentially, BYU has one more low score to remove to clinch safety, which should not be a burden, but even a 195.900 would be enough to stay in the top 36 this week.  

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.415

Ball State’s regionals position is a little more precarious, but with two meets this weekend, there’s a chance to un-precarious things. A 196.425 in the first meet would ensure Ball State stays in the top 36 this week, and then they could use the second meet to create some more buffer.

Maximum NQS after Friday’s meet: 196.290

West Virginia’s ranking is in the scary zone, but the good side of the scary zone thanks to their 197.325 over the weekend, which turned out to be a dream-destroyed for a lot of other teams on the outside of the top 36. A 196.075 in the first meet of the two-meet weekend would ensure #36 North Carolina cannot pass West Virginia this week.

Maximum NQS after Friday’s meet: 196.515

North Carolina fell all the way from 30th to 36th this week despite a season high, and suddenly things look worrisome. With Ball State and West Virginia both competing twice this week and #37 Penn State having a higher maximum NQS, North Carolina is in need of a big road score this weekend to try to stay afloat (and would love an implosion from some of the teams in the 31-35 zone). It’s going to be a nervy two weeks.

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.260

Penn State got dropped out of the regionals spots this week, also with a season high that didn’t end up helping that much. Visiting Auburn on Auburn’s senior night on Friday, Penn State will be eager to bask in some reflected scores to amp up those road numbers just in time. A 196.450 would get Penn State ahead of North Carolina and into the top 36 this week regardless of what North Carolina does. 

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.350

George Washington is not out of it yet, especially with two meets this weekend, but enough of a gap is forming that at this point that both scores need to be well into the 196s to have any shot.

Maximum NQS after Friday’s meet: 196.090 

Central Michigan is making the late push with Sunday’s 196.500, but is it too late? There’s no chance to get into the top 36 this week, so this week’s score is about setting themselves up for a move during conference championships.

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.050

Kent State heads up the section of teams that are not eliminated yet, but really need to start getting the 196.7s like yesterday in order to make any kind of an upset push. Season-high-by-a-lot has to be the goal for everyone in this part of the rankings in order to stay mathematically in it for conference championships.

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 195.870

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 196.030

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 195.860

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 195.935

Maximum NQS after this weekend: 195.820