The year’s first world championships squad has officially been named and, obviously, it’s the Japanese team. Five months early on the dot. Just like everything should be. If plans are to be made, I need minimum five months notice to mentally prepare to be around you. It’s called basic consideration.

There is particular boldness this year in naming a team for worlds before actually qualifying a team to worlds. The Asian Championship at the end of June will determine which Asian teams qualify to worlds, and while Japan is 100% going to qualify, it still isn’t official yet.

Anyway, this year’s worlds team is Nishiyama Misa, Kishi Rina, Sugihara Aiko, Okamura Mana, and Nakamura Haruka.

The first four members of the team were automatically locked based on the all-around standings at the end of the second day of the NHK Cup, which finished yesterday. Standings were determined using the average of the all-around scores from the two days of the All-Japan Championships (held last month), added to the all-around scores from the two days of NHK. Or, if you prefer, (AJ1 + AJ2)/2 + NHK1 + NHK2.

First-year senior Nishiyama Misa, coming off a multi-medal performance at last year’s junior world championship, took the first spot by winning the all-around at both All-Japan and NHK. The rise of Nishiyama as a new dominant force has sent a ripple through the rest of the national team as it means there’s one less spot available for all the usual team suspects.

Finishing second overall and also earning a spot was 2024 Olympian Kishi Rina, just ahead of two-time Olympian and reigning world floor champion Sugihara Aiko.

Sugihara was in a slightly precarious position following All-Japan, sitting 5th all-around after scoring a 10 on bars on the first day, but she recovered at NHK, placing 2nd overall and nearly besting Nishiyama to move into a comfortable position. Another 2024 Olympian, Okamura Mana, was in a strong spot after All-Japan and was able to hold on for the fourth and final all-around place on the worlds team despite some lower scores at NHK.

The fifth and final team member was determined based on Team Contribution Points, using the following system:

For the 4 already locked members of the team, their Team Contribution Points were determined using the average of their best two scores on each apparatus over the four days of competition (two at All-Japan, two at NHK).

LOCKED TEAM
Nishiyama Misa	14.283	14.217	13.500	13.433
Kishi Rina	14.233	13.833	13.667	13.783
Sugihara Aiko	14.533	13.500	13.583	14.000
Okamura Mana	13.117	13.900	14.227	13.466
???

For the remaining age-eligible gymnasts, their Team Contribution Points were determined using the average of their best three scores on each event over the four days of competition to see who added the most to a potential team score.

The only gymnast who ended up adding anything at all was Nakamura Haruka, shockingly not because of bars or beam but because her 13.577 floor very slightly improved the team total on that event. Nakamura is also a 2024 Olympian and 2025 world team member but had rough competitions overall at All-Japan and NHK and fell way down the all-around standings (particularly after a 9 on bars on the first day of NHK). But, her floor scores were competitive and ended up saving her.

If no one else had scores that ended up improving on the locked four team members, the final spot would have gone to the next all-arounder, Yamaguchi Sara, who had a massive competition at NHK to very nearly play the spoiler and get onto the worlds team. Yamaguchi was the junior world all-around silver medalist in 2023 but was then out of competition for 2.5 years after that. Yamaguchi placed 4th overall at NHK but didn’t have the scores from All-Japan to beat Okamura for the last automatic spot.

Notably snubbed for this year’s team once again is Miyata Shoko, a 2022 and 2023 world team member and rightful 2024 Olympian, who struggled in the selection competitions, placing just 8th AA. Miyata was in contention after All-Japan, but a multi-miss 50.198 on the first day of NHK spoiled her chances of getting an all-around spot. Inconsistency throughout the competitions also meant she didn’t have high enough event scores to make a case through Team Contribution Points.

Miyata’s performances at these competitions were not enough to warrant a spot on the team, but as we saw last year when Miyata showed up to the University Games in July and won four golds including the all-around, not scoring well enough to make the team in May isn’t necessarily a reliable indicator of scoring potential later in the year.

This is a big reason Japan’s team selection process is such an international lightning rod. There are actually a number of things to like about it, namely that there is a real, predetermined selection system based entirely on scores that can be dissected and followed. The work is shown. There’s no “team members will be selected based on a combination of factors including international look and also who’s prettiest, as based on the assessment of a redacted ghost.”

But that is countered by a number of cons, including the over-emphasis on all-around standings, which has historically led to snubbing apparatus specialists who might be better contributors to the team score. That hasn’t really happened this time around—there’s no great individual event scores from NHK being left off the team—but the selected team could also deeply, deeply use a peak Miyata floor score if that were an option. Which brings us back to the it’s May of it all.

We’re also seeing Japan (certainly not alone among top countries in this) use only domestic competitions to determine the team, which can be an issue not solely because of the amorphous specter of home judging but also because it doesn’t necessarily recreate the challenges of adjusting to unfamiliar equipment and international travel. Wouldn’t it be great to at least have the feedback of scores from the Asian Championship to make a more well-rounded decision?

All told, this is nonetheless an extremely competitive team, featuring three DTYs that should stack up very well on vault, some of the strongest beam routines in the world, and the 2025 floor champion. We don’t really have enough information yet to say who the medal favorites at worlds this year are (once again, May), but this Japanese team should expect to be a top 5-6 country and possibly better depending on who is healthy/back/eligible.