Week 10 Rankings & Final NQS Scenarios

Full NQS Tracker with regionals projections

Any scores in BOLD can no longer be dropped.

Regional seeding placements are:
1-8-9-16
2-7-10-15
3-6-11-14
4-5-12-13


1. Oklahoma – 198.300

Oklahoma NQS
Road score 1198.425
Road score 2198.325
Road score 3198.125
Home/road score 1198.575
Home/road score 2198.400
Home/road score 3198.225
NQS:198.300

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 198.390
Final ranking: 1

There’s only one team that already knows where it will finish this season, and that’s Oklahoma, which has already locked up #1. Now, it’s just about how high they can push that NQS record.


2. Michigan – 198.045

Michigan NQS
Road score 1198.300
Road score 2198.275
Road score 3197.825
Home/road score 1198.125
Home/road score 2198.025
Home/road score 3197.975
NQS:198.045

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 198.140
Possible ranking range: 2-3

Michigan will be a #1 seed at its regional and can lock up the #2 overall ranking with a 198.175 at Big Tens. 


3. Florida – 198.015

Florida NQS
Road score 1198.175
Road score 2197.975
Road score 3197.875
Home/road score 1198.350
Home/road score 2198.150
Home/road score 3197.900
NQS:198.015

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 198.110
Possible ranking range: 2-5

Florida is at least slightly vulnerable to UCLA and Utah this week and so will be looking for a 198.000 at SECs to sew up a spot at either 2 or 3 and a #1 regionals seeding.


4. UCLA – 197.940

UCLA NQS
Road score 1197.975
Road score 2197.900
Road score 3197.850
Home/road score 1198.275
Home/road score 2198.175
Home/road score 3197.800
NQS:197.940

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 198.035
Possible ranking range: 3-5

UCLA and Utah both have identical maximum NQSs and so would end up tied if they both record season highs at the Pac-12 championship. As a regionals host, UCLA is currently most likely to host the 4-5-12-13 regional, which would only change if UCLA passes Florida this week. To have even a shot to catch Florida, UCLA would need 198.175 at Pac-12s and then also some help from Florida. 


5. Utah – 197.845

Utah NQS
Road score 1197.750
Road score 2197.700
Road score 3197.600
Home/road score 1198.550
Home/road score 2198.200
Home/road score 3197.975
NQS:197.845

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 198.035
Possible ranking range: 3-7

While Utah has the same maximum as UCLA, Utah is also somewhat vulnerable to being dropped lower in the rankings by LSU, Cal or both. So the first priority at Pac-12s will be a 198.175 to clinch at least a final ranking of #5 and a spot at the 4-5-12-13 regional. The minimum score needed to try to challenge Florida is a 198.450 (and then Florida would have to cooperate), but you never know.  


6. LSU – 197.780

LSU NQS
Road score 1197.975
Road score 2197.700
Road score 3197.500
Home/road score 1198.100
Home/road score 2198.025
Home/road score 3197.700
NQS:197.780

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.900
Possible ranking range: 5-7

LSU won’t move too much after conference championships regardless, but could rise or fall one spot. A 197.850 would be enough to match Utah’s current NQS and therefore start putting the pressure on Utah to get a score to stay ahead. Cal is also capable of catching LSU, and with a higher maximum NQS, that will be in Cal’s hands. 


7. Cal – 197.765

Cal NQS
Road score 1197.675
Road score 2197.550
Road score 3197.525
Home/road score 1198.275
Home/road score 2198.100
Home/road score 3197.975
NQS:197.765

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.915
Possible ranking range: 5-7

Cal can’t fall any lower than its current ranking of #7, so it’s all about gains at conference championships. A 197.950 would match Utah’s current NQS and a 197.600 would match LSU’s current NQS so those are the minimum numbers required to begin to have a chance to pass them. Meanwhile, a 198.225 would be enough to guarantee moving ahead of LSU regardless of what LSU scores.


8. Kentucky – 197.630

Kentucky NQS
Road score 1197.800
Road score 2197.575
Road score 3197.275
Home/road score 1197.875
Home/road score 2197.825
Home/road score 3197.675
NQS:197.630

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.750
Possible ranking range: 8-11

Kentucky moved up from 12th to 8th this week with a huge 197.800 road score. There’s no chance for Kentucky to move any higher than 8th but can hold onto 8th with a 197.825 at SECs, and can clinch a spot in the 1-8-9-16 regional with a 197.800. Because these 8-13 teams are so closely bunched, it’s going to take very high numbers to guarantee things.


9. Michigan State – 197.575

Michigan State NQS
Road score 1197.675
Road score 2197.500
Road score 3197.450
Home/road score 1198.225
Home/road score 2197.800
Home/road score 3197.450
NQS:197.575

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.730
Possible ranking range: 8-13

Michigan State could get as high as 8th, but since Kentucky and Alabama have higher maximums, will be somewhat dependent on those teams. MSU can guarantee a spot in the final top 10 by scoring 197.850 or better at Big Tens. 


10. Alabama – 197.560

Alabama NQS
Road score 1198.000
Road score 2197.525
Road score 3197.375
Home/road score 1197.925
Home/road score 2197.850
Home/road score 3197.125
NQS:197.560

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.735
Possible ranking range: 8-13

Alabama still maintains a reasonable chance to move up with that (relatively) low drop score of 197.125. A 198.000 at SECs would be enough to move ahead of Michigan State and clinch a spot in the top 9, while 197.600 is enough to clinch a spot in the top 10. 


11. Oregon State – 197.490

Oregon State NQS
Road score 1198.075
Road score 2197.550
Road score 3197.300
Home/road score 1197.950
Home/road score 2197.375
Home/road score 3197.275
NQS:197.490

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.650
Possible ranking range: 8-13

Oregon State has a slightly lower maximum than the teams ranked above, so while getting up as high as #8 is possible, any chance to do so will be very dependent on those teams. Oregon State will be eyeing a 197.950, which would clinch a final ranking no lower than 11th.


12. Auburn – 197.480

Auburn NQS
Road score 1197.700
Road score 2197.350
Road score 3197.200
Home/road score 1197.750
Home/road score 2197.600
Home/road score 3197.550
NQS:197.480

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.590
Possible ranking range: 9-13

Auburn cannot move into the top 8 now so will not be a top-2 seed at regionals and will have to work from the underdog position. With a lower maximum than Denver, it’s also possible for Auburn to get dropped to 13th place and a #4 regionals seeding. While everything is pretty dependent on other teams, Auburn would love a 197.675 to at least create an opportunity to challenge #9 Michigan State as well as Alabama and Oregon St.


13. Denver – 197.445

Denver NQS
Road score 1197.650
Road score 2197.375
Road score 3197.275
Home/road score 1198.150
Home/road score 2197.500
Home/road score 3197.425
NQS:197.445

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.620
Possible ranking range: 9-13

Denver cannot fall any lower than its current ranking of 13th (though if the current rankings all hold, would have to switch spots with #14 Arizona State in order to avoid a regionals host conflict with UCLA as they would both be in the 4-5-12-13 regional). Denver will be aiming for that 198.000 at Big 12s, as that would ensure passing Auburn regardless of what Auburn does at SECs.


14. Arizona State – 197.105

Arizona State NQS
Road score 1197.475
Road score 2196.900
Road score 3196.800
Home/road score 1197.725
Home/road score 2197.550
Home/road score 3196.800
NQS:197.105

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.290
Possible ranking range: 14-18

Arizona State can’t go any higher than 14th, but the main goal will be retaining a place in the top 16 and having a regionals seeding. A 197.350 at Pac-12s clinches a seeding for ASU.


15. Ohio State – 197.055

Ohio State NQS
Road score 1196.900
Road score 2196.825
Road score 3196.750
Home/road score 1197.600
Home/road score 2197.575
Home/road score 3197.225
NQS:197.055

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.225
Possible ranking range: 14-19

Ohio State will have the same top-16 aims, knowing that a 197.550 would ensure that Arkansas cannot pass regardless of how well Arkansas scores, meaning that a regionals seeding is set. 


16. Arkansas – 197.050

Arkansas NQS
Road score 1197.150
Road score 2197.125
Road score 3196.675
Home/road score 1197.475
Home/road score 2197.400
Home/road score 3196.900
NQS:197.050

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.210
Possible ranking range: 14-20

Because Arkansas has a lower maximum than ASU, Ohio St, and Missouri, Arkansas would be knocked out of a seeded position should all those teams record season highs on Saturday. Arkansas needs at least one of them to be just OK and will be looking for at minimum a 196.950 to present the opportunity to try to pass ASU and Ohio St should they have misses.


17. Missouri – 197.040

Missouri NQS
Road score 1197.850
Road score 2196.800
Road score 3196.625
Home/road score 1197.450
Home/road score 2197.250
Home/road score 3197.075
NQS:197.040

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.285
Possible ranking range: 14-20

Missouri currently sits outside the seeded positions and in the geographical placement positions (though since Missouri is closest to Oklahoma, finishing in 16th and 17th would probably result in the same thing, a spot in Oklahoma’s 1-8-9-16 regional). Still, Missouri won’t want to stay outside the top 16 and can clinch a seeded spot with a 197.500 at SECs. 


18. Georgia – 196.955

Georgia NQS
Road score 1196.925
Road score 2196.900
Road score 3196.875
Home/road score 1197.325
Home/road score 2197.225
Home/road score 3196.850
NQS:196.955

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.050
Possible ranking range: 16-21

Georgia has only the very most outside chance of getting into the top 16, but it is possible with a maximum NQS of 197.050, which would tie Arkansas in 16th should Arkansas not improve on its NQS (and Missouri and Stanford and Minnesota not improve enough either). Georgia would then get a top-16 spot on the tiebreak.


19. Stanford – 196.930

Stanford NQS
Road score 1197.400
Road score 2197.075
Road score 3196.825
Home/road score 1197.575
Home/road score 2196.725
Home/road score 3196.625
NQS:196.930

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.120
Possible ranking range: 14-21

With a maximum NQS of 197.120, Stanford has a bit more realistic shot to get into the seeded spots than Georgia does, though it would take a minimum score of 197.225 at Pac-12s and then some help. 


20. Minnesota – 196.900

Minnesota NQS
Road score 1197.075
Road score 2197.075
Road score 3196.875
Home/road score 1197.600
Home/road score 2196.800
Home/road score 3196.675
NQS:196.900

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.085
Possible ranking range: 15-21

Like Stanford, Minnesota is still in it for a regional seeding, but in this case it would take at least a 197.425 at Big 10s and then help.


21. Southern Utah – 196.765

Southern Utah NQS
Road score 1197.125
Road score 2197.125
Road score 3196.275
Home/road score 1196.925
Home/road score 2196.900
Home/road score 3196.600
NQS:196.765

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.870
Possible ranking range: 21-24

Southern Utah heads up the group of teams that are safe to qualify for regionals but cannot get a seeding.


22. Maryland – 196.710

Maryland NQS
Road score 1196.875
Road score 2196.600
Road score 3196.475
Home/road score 1197.100
Home/road score 2196.950
Home/road score 3196.650
NQS:196.710

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.835
Possible ranking range: 21-28


23. Nebraska – 196.705

Nebraska NQS
Road score 1197.500
Road score 2196.325
Road score 3196.150
Home/road score 1197.275
Home/road score 2196.925
Home/road score 3196.850
NQS:196.705

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.975
Possible ranking range: 18-29


24. Illinois – 196.700

Illinois NQS
Road score 1196.875
Road score 2196.825
Road score 3196.575
Home/road score 1196.800
Home/road score 2196.700
Home/road score 3196.600
NQS:196.700

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.760
Possible ranking range: 22-29


25. Iowa – 196.650

Iowa NQS
Road score 1196.925
Road score 2196.900
Road score 3196.575
Home/road score 1196.875
Home/road score 2196.475
Home/road score 3196.425
NQS:196.650

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.750
Possible ranking range: 22-29


26. Western Michigan – 196.590

Western Michigan NQS
Road score 1196.950
Road score 2196.725
Road score 3195.925
Home/road score 1197.100
Home/road score 2196.750
Home/road score 3196.600
NQS:196.590

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.825
Possible ranking range: 21-30


27. Washington – 196.585

Washington NQS
Road score 1196.750
Road score 2196.625
Road score 3196.550
Home/road score 1197.250
Home/road score 2196.625
Home/road score 3196.375
NQS:196.585

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.760
Possible ranking range: 22-30


28. Arizona – 196.570

Arizona NQS
Road score 1196.675
Road score 2196.525
Road score 3196.475
Home/road score 1197.275
Home/road score 2196.800
Home/road score 3196.375
NQS:196.570

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.750
Possible ranking range: 22-31


29. West Virginia – 196.515

West Virginia NQS
Road score 1196.625
Road score 2196.550
Road score 3196.450
Home/road score 1197.325
Home/road score 2196.575
Home/road score 3196.375
NQS:196.515

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.705
Possible ranking range: 23-31


30. NC State – 196.430

NC State NQS
Road score 1196.475
Road score 2196.375
Road score 3196.275
Home/road score 1197.225
Home/road score 2196.650
Home/road score 3196.375
NQS:196.430

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.620
Possible ranking range: 26-34


31. Towson – 196.375

Towson NQS
Road score 1196.575
Road score 2196.450
Road score 3196.350
Home/road score 1196.775
Home/road score 2196.375
Home/road score 3196.125
NQS:196.375

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.505
Possible ranking range: 30-35


32. Ball State – 196.355

Ball State NQS
Road score 1196.550
Road score 2196.425
Road score 3196.375
Home/road score 1196.900
Home/road score 2196.300
Home/road score 3196.125
NQS:196.355

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.510
Possible ranking range: 30-36


33. Penn State – 196.350

Penn State NQS
Road score 1197.025
Road score 2196.100
Road score 3195.875
Home/road score 1196.875
Home/road score 2196.550
Home/road score 3196.350
NQS:196.350

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.580
Possible ranking range: 28-36

Penn State is the final locked team, using a 197 road score over the weekend to get to safety.

From here on, there are just three open spots remaining and five teams eligible for them, which is much fewer than usual.


34. BYU – 196.295

BYU NQS
Road score 1196.650
Road score 2196.475
Road score 3196.050
Home/road score 1196.450
Home/road score 2196.350
Home/road score 3196.150
NQS:196.295

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.415
Possible ranking range: 31-37

BYU is the first team that is not yet safe to advance to regionals but does control its own fate and can guarantee advancing to the postseason with a 196.200 regardless of what anyone else does. 


35. Boise State – 196.225

Boise State NQS
Road score 1196.825
Road score 2196.525
Road score 3196.075
Home/road score 1196.500
Home/road score 2196.325
Home/road score 3195.700
NQS:196.225

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.450
Possible ranking range: 30-38

Exactly like BYU, Boise State is not yet safe after putting up a non-counter over the weekend but can clinch regionals with a 196.200 at the conference championship. So if you happen to be watching MRGCs on Saturday, 196.200 is the queen of all scores.  


36. North Carolina – 196.220

North Carolina NQS
Road score 1196.275
Road score 2196.275
Road score 3195.975
Home/road score 1196.475
Home/road score 2196.325
Home/road score 3196.250
NQS:196.220

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.320
Possible ranking range: 34-38

North Carolina did the necessary job over the weekend to stay in the top 36 but is not safe yet and, because San Jose State has a higher peak NQS, will not be able to control its own regionals destiny. By the time North Carolina competes in the second session of EAGLs, San Jose and Davis will already been done, so they’ll know what they need and if it is possible.


37. San Jose State – 196.215

San Jose State NQS
Road score 1196.600
Road score 2196.300
Road score 3195.850
Home/road score 1196.625
Home/road score 2196.175
Home/road score 3196.150
NQS:196.215

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.370
Possible ranking range: 32-38

While San Jose State currently sits in 37th and on the outside of the regionals spots, the team will also know that a 196.400 would be enough to clinch a spot at regionals regardless of anyone else’s scores. That’s the score North Carolina will be desperately rooting doesn’t happen.


#38 Central Michigan and #39 George Washington have been eliminated from regionals contention.


40. UC Davis – 195.965

UC Davis NQS
Road score 1196.475
Road score 2196.425
Road score 3195.300
Home/road score 1196.750
Home/road score 2196.175
Home/road score 3195.450
NQS:195.965

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.255

Davis was the rare team that got a high enough score to stay alive over the weekend—but is still definitely the underdog when it comes to regionals qualification. Davis would have to score at least 196.575 at conference championships AND get some help from both North Carolina and San Jose to have a shot. 


All remaining teams have been eliminated from regionals contention.

3 thoughts on “Week 10 Rankings & Final NQS Scenarios”

  1. Spencer great analysis Still confused if UCLA bumps up to #3 after pac 12 then they will not compete Regionals at Pauley Pavillon?
    Thanks, you are hilarious and brilliant
    Lesley

    1. The four regional hosts are set. The top sixteen teams are distributed to regionals by seeding. Spencer was just saying which seed group would be most likely to be the regional UCLA hosts. (The groups are 1-8-9-16, 2-7-10-15, 3-6-11-14, and 4-5-12-13, I think. I did that off my head)

    2. Regional sites are set ahead of time.
      Denver, Oklahoma, UCLA, Pittsburgh are the designated sites.
      Should two hosts be seeded together then they would swap a team, which is always the lower ranked team.
      Right now the regionals would be
      Pittsburgh: Michigan, Cal, Bama, Ohio State
      Denver: Florida, LSU, Oregon State, Arizona State
      UCLA: UCLA, Utah, Auburn, Denver
      Oklahoma: Oklahoma, Kentucky, Michigan State, Arkansas.
      Because Denver and UCLA are both hosts, a swap would need to take place. So Denver and Arizona State would swap due to host conflict.

      Should UCLA pass Florida these would be the placements.
      UCLA: UCLA, LSU, Oregon State, Arizona State
      Denver: Florida, Utah, Auburn, Denver

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