Regional Draw

Lexington, Kentucky
Semifinal #1		Semifinal #2
#8 Missouri		#1 Oklahoma
#9 Arkansas		#16 Kentucky
#21 NC State		#18 Ohio State
#27 Maryland		CMU	Rutgers
Seeding-Projected Final
Oklahoma
Missouri
Arkansas
Kentucky

Schedule

April 2, 2:00pm ET – CMU v Rutgers Play-in
April 3, 1:00pm ET – Semifinal #1
April 3, 7:00pm ET – Semifinal #2
April 5, 5:00pm ET – Final

What’s Her Story?

With national #1 Oklahoma heavily favored to advance to the championship, this regional serves as the exact argument for the #8 and #9 teams being paired at the same regional, which is: we have two teams in Missouri and Arkansas that are wholly indistinguishable even after an entire regular season of constantly SECing together, so the gals can just decide among themselves who else goes to nationals. You can parse those scores until the end of time to see who’s favored, but it’s nobody. Go, do sports, and we’ll see who sticks more.

Where this regional gets more complicated is the Kentucky factor. Kentucky started the season as a Four-Alarm Garbage Fire on beam, then figured it out well enough to escape the conference basement and get seeded at its own regional. Last weekend, Kentucky finished just .150 behind Missouri and .050 behind Arkansas at the SEC Championship to establish itself as a more-than-reasonable spoiler if able to produce a home-brewed stick parade—or if able to figure out how to turn on the wind machine during everyone else’s beam.

What’s Her Semifinal Story?

Rotation Order

SEMIFINAL #1
	NQS	High	Low
[8] Missouri	197.178	197.550	196.825
[9] Arkansas	197.170	197.700	195.975
[21] NC State	196.452	197.150	195.575
[27] Maryland	195.845	196.675	194.625

Missouri and Arkansas are pretty heavily favored to get through from this session…with a hit meet. This presents as your classic midday “I’m going to start a load of laundry, but call me if someone falls” semifinal. Recent performances tell us to expect about a mid-196 out of NC State with all 49+ rotations, which is not a challenge that Missouri and Arkansas can just snore through. Count a 9.2 on beam, and we’ll start cranking the upset alarm.

Of note, Missouri selected bars as its starting event and then Arkansas selected floor, meaning NC State will have Olympic order despite only getting third pick.

SEMIFINAL #2
	NQS	High	Low
[1] Oklahoma	197.980	198.425	197.425
[16] Kentucky	196.550	197.325	194.325
[18] Ohio St	196.492	197.150	195.750
CMU/Rutgers	195.597 195.398	196.100 196.550	194.750 193.600

Can Ohio State do this? With Kentucky competing at home and generally looking under-ranked because of the weak start (UK’s NQS is 196.550, but the team hasn’t actually gone that low since January), focus has been more on the ceiling of Kentucky’s potential regional performance, but the floor is also worth considering.

Looking at the team trackers below, Ohio State’s approximation of a best/better-case-scenario total would be 196.965, and Kentucky went 196.925 at SECs. That tells us an excellent meet from Ohio State can score right at Kentucky’s SEC performance without necessarily relying on Kentucky to miss, but it would take that excellent meet.

Individual Qualification

For those who do not make nationals with a team, one AAer and one gymnast on each apparatus also advance.

All-Around

The national rankings for the all-arounders in the Kentucky regional

	Name	Team	NQS
4	Addison Fatta	Oklahoma	39.665
10	Delaynee Rodriguez	Kentucky	39.520
10	Chloe Cho	Illinois	39.520
17	Tory Vetter	Ohio State	39.410
19	Gabrielle Dildy	Rutgers	39.400
22	Hailey Klein	Arkansas	39.385
26	Luciana Alvarado-Reid	Central Michigan	39.360
28	Allison Cucci	Arkansas	39.345
41	Morgan Price	Arkansas	39.215
41	Cecily Rizo	Kentucky	39.215
43	Zoe Middleton	Ball State	39.210
46	Aine Reade	Maryland	39.170

If Kentucky doesn’t advance, home-team hope Delaynee Rodriguez seems a solid choice to make nationals for the all-around. She’s tied with Chloe Cho in the rankings, but Cho did not compete vault at the last two meets. The major wildcard here is of course Joscelyn Roberson, who doesn’t have a national all-around ranking because she hasn’t vaulted enough, but is still, you know, Roberson and whatnot.

Event Top 10s

Projecting individual event qualifiers to nationals is notoriously impossible, so here we go with the top 10 ranked gymnasts in the regional on each event.

VAULT

	Name	Team	NQS
2	Addison Fatta	Oklahoma	9.955
4	Mackenzie Estep	Oklahoma	9.940
5	Keira Wells	Oklahoma	9.935
8	Morgan Price	Arkansas	9.925
14	Lauren Williams	Arkansas	9.910
14	Elle Mueller	Oklahoma	9.910
19	Hannah Scheible	Oklahoma	9.905
21	Hannah Horton	Missouri	9.900
25	Elizabeth Blessey	Oklahoma	9.895
30	Anna Flynn Cashion	Kentucky	9.890
30	Allison Cucci	Arkansas	9.890

At #8 nationally, Morgan Price is the highest-ranked vaulter in this regional whose team is not seeded to advance.

BARS

	Name	Team	NQS
8	Chloe Cho	Illinois	9.940
12	Morgan Price	Arkansas	9.935
15	Kimarra Echols	Missouri	9.925
25	Addison Fatta	Oklahoma	9.915
25	Mackenzie Estep	Oklahoma	9.915
25	Hannah Horton	Missouri	9.915
29	Ella Murphy	Oklahoma	9.910
29	Faith Torrez	Oklahoma	9.910
33	Lia Kmieciak	Central Michigan	9.905
33	Delaynee Rodriguez	Kentucky	9.905
33	Lyden Saltness	Illinois	9.905

Chloe Cho is in the rare position of being the best-ranked gymnast in the regional on an event but without having to do any caveats of “if she doesn’t qualify with a team…” because Illinois didn’t make it as a team.

BEAM

	Name	Team	NQS
3	Faith Torrez	Oklahoma	9.960
5	Joscelyn Roberson	Arkansas	9.950
8	Ella Murphy	Oklahoma	9.945
8	Addison Lawrence	Missouri	9.945
17	Keira Wells	Oklahoma	9.920
20	Delaynee Rodriguez	Kentucky	9.915
23	Addison Fatta	Oklahoma	9.910
31	Elle Mueller	Oklahoma	9.900
31	Lauren Macpherson	Missouri	9.900
37	Tory Vetter	Ohio State	9.895
37	Chloe Cho	Illinois	9.895

Roberson and Lawrence have been the 9.950iest of the non-Oklahoma beamers in this regional, so whoever doesn’t go with a team seems the most likely choice for beam. Unless Missouri goes as a team and Roberson goes for AA, in which case the beamer…[he trailed off].

FLOOR

	Name	Team	NQS
11	Mackenzie Estep	Oklahoma	9.935
11	JJ Coleman	Ohio State	9.935
11	Creslyn Brose	Kentucky	9.935
18	Addison Fatta	Oklahoma	9.930
18	Elle Mueller	Oklahoma	9.930
18	Hannah Horton	Missouri	9.930
25	Kennedy Griffin	Missouri	9.925
30	Kamila Pawlak	Oklahoma	9.920
35	Gabrielle Dildy	Rutgers	9.915
35	Lauren Williams	Arkansas	9.915
35	Joscelyn Roberson	Arkansas	9.915

The individual floor qualification field is deeply deep in its deepness in this regional, with JJ Coleman, Creslyn Brose, and Joscelyn Roberson not seeded to advance with teams, and then Hannah Horton and Kennedy Griffin right there if Missouri doesn’t go through.

Team Score Trackers

Each gymnast from the conference championship lineup is listed with her NQS on that apparatus (or average if she doesn’t have an NQS), followed by what the 5-count total for the event would be using these scores.

Because the individual NQS system still uses the old method of dropping all the bad ones, these totals are very much best-case-scenario scores. What does it look like if everyone is a perfect princess who has never done anything wrong all at the exact same time?

Semifinal #1

#8 MISSOURI
VAULT	BARS	BEAM	FLOOR
Horton 9.900	Echols 9.925	Lawrence 9.945	Horton 9.930
Echols 9.875	Horton 9.915	Macpherson 9.900	Griffin 9.925
Tisler 9.870	Terry 9.885	Jackson 9.890	Tanskanen 9.910
Griffin 9.825	Kelly 9.875	Kelly 9.885	Tisler 9.890
Tanskanen 9.810	Green 9.850	Wier 9.865	Acevedo 9.875
Acevedo 9.800	Macpherson 9.830	Westerlind 9.775	Jackson 9.870
49.280	49.450	49.485	49.530
197.745

#9 ARKANSAS
VAULT	BARS	BEAM	FLOOR
M Price 9.925	M Price 9.935	Roberson 9.950	Roberson 9.915
Williams 9.910	Smith 9.875	Cucci 9.875	Williams 9.915
Cucci 9.890	Klein 9.860	M Price 9.865	Smith 9.890
Weaver 9.860	Roberson 9.860	Klein 9.860	Cucci 9.870
Klein 9.850	Cucci 9.855	Park 9.855	Klein 9.855
Roberson 9.775	King 9.731	Weaver 9.850	F Price 9.725
49.435	49.385	49.405	49.445
197.670

#21 NC STATE
VAULT	BARS	BEAM	FLOOR
Thomas 9.875	Hadrick 9.900	Thomas 9.865	Thomas 9.900
Myers 9.845	Volk 9.875	Tackett 9.860	Hadrick 9.885
Wright 9.840	Harper 9.865	Hall 9.840	Rardin 9.880
Hall 9.810	Reid 9.860	Volk 9.835	Adler 9.835
Rardin 9.785	Myers 9.845	Rardin 9.825	Fisk 9.835
Fisk 9.765	Fisk 9.765	Harper 9.805	Myers 9.825
49.155	49.345	49.225	49.335
197.060

#27 MARYLAND
VAULT	BARS	BEAM	FLOOR
Mendez-Abolnik 9.845	Komoroski 9.825	Komoroski 9.875	Reade 9.900
Buckmon 9.840	Ruffing 9.810	DeFrees 9.850	Komoroski 9.885
Kogler 9.830	Reade 9.805	Bingham 9.800	DeFrees 9.855
Rech 9.820	Saville 9.800	Engelmayer 9.765	Rech 9.850
Engelmayer 9.805	Dennis 9.800	Reade 9.765	Engelmayer 9.805
Reade 9.770	Bingham 9.745	Dennis 9.380	Mendez-Abolnik 9.750
49.140	49.040	49.055	49.295
196.530

Semifinal #2

#1 OKLAHOMA
VAULT	BARS	BEAM	FLOOR
Fatta 9.955	Fatta 9.915	Torrez 9.960	Estep 9.935
Estep 9.940	Estep 9.915	Murphy 9.945	Fatta 9.930
Wells 9.935	Torrez 9.910	Wells 9.920	Mueller 9.930
Mueller 9.910	Murphy 9.910	Fatta 9.910	Pawlak 9.920
Scheible 9.905	Scheible 9.900	Mueller 9.900	Wells 9.906
Blessey 9.895	Pederson 9.890	Pederson 9.880	Murphy 9.905
49.645	49.550	49.635	49.621
198.451

#16 KENTUCKY
VAULT	BARS	BEAM	FLOOR
Cashion 9.890	Rodriguez 9.905	Rodriguez 9.915	Brose 9.935
Rizo 9.865	Noonan 9.860	Brose 9.865	Rodriguez 9.900
Rodriguez 9.860	Bennett 9.840	Bennett 9.865	Gardner 9.860
Noonan 9.860	Van Frayen 9.825	Van Frayen 9.845	Bennett 9.855
Gardner 9.810	Rizo 9.790	Lee 9.830	Van Frayen 9.835
Hofseth 9.770	Nemcek 9.790	Rizo 9.800	Rizo 9.830
49.285	49.220	49.320	49.385
197.210

#18 OHIO STATE
VAULT	BARS	BEAM	FLOOR
Coleman 9.865	Vetter 9.850	Vetter 9.895	Coleman 9.935
Vetter 9.850	Jackson 9.810	Martin 9.860	Vetter 9.895
Smith 9.845	Rader 9.800	McCann 9.860	Grimes 9.865
Martin 9.835	Pomager 9.790	Guevara 9.835	Guevara 9.865
Grimes 9.830	Berry 9.785	Jackson 9.830	Belman 9.865
Pomager 9.815	Coleman 9.695	Smith 9.800	Smith 9.815
49.225	49.035	49.280	49.425
196.965

#31 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
VAULT	BARS	BEAM	FLOOR
Kmieciak 9.845	Kmieciak 9.905	Alvarado-Reid 9.850	Alvarado-Reid 9.890
Alvarado-Reid 9.805	Alvarado-Reid 9.895	Pelfry 9.815	Wellmeier 9.840
Wellmeier 9.800	Schwab 9.835	Germond 9.745	Zimmerman 9.835
Bootz 9.775	Wellmeier 9.815	Zimmerman 9.745	Bootz 9.815
Germond 9.685	Shannon 9.805	Johnson 9.740	Germond 9.805
Reddick 9.575	Johnson 9.750	Bootz 9.715	Parker 9.760
48.910	49.255	48.895	49.185
196.245

#36 RUTGERS
VAULT	BARS	BEAM	FLOOR
Leese 9.855	Dildy 9.855	Adrian 9.830	Dildy 9.915
Dildy 9.845	Adrian 9.845	Dildy 9.825	Leese 9.895
Riley 9.810	Schenkel 9.840	Riley 9.820	Adrian 9.850
Schenkel 9.810	Earley 9.800	Smith 9.770	Goldsmith 9.845
Chevaire 9.775	Rains 9.785	Larsen 9.635	Uhlenberg 9.833
Larsen 9.745	Uhlenberg 9.750	Rains 9.430	Larsen 9.735
49.095	49.125	48.880	49.338
196.438