The LSU Regional

Regional Draw

Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Semifinal #1Semifinal #2
#7 Stanford#2 LSU
#10 Michigan#15 Clemson
#22 North Carolina#17 Auburn
#26 Utah StateAir ForceNebraska
Seeding-Projected Final
LSU
Stanford
Michigan
Clemson

Schedule

April 1, 2:00pm CT – AF v Nebraska Play-in
April 2, 1:00pm CT – Semifinal #1
April 2, 7:00pm CT – Semifinal #2
April 4, 5:00pm CT – Final

What’s Her Story?

Even without being a regionals host, #2 LSU would join national top seed Oklahoma in the “Um, I guess, but things would have to get pretty funky” category of upset prognostication, which is only reinforced by LSU competing within friendly confines.

With regard to the rest of this regional, there are two types of people in this world: Those who think Stanford is going to toe point their way to a 199.999 and challenge LSU for the top score while advancing easily, and those who think this is secretly the most chaotic regional and every guest is a suspect.

For the first type, may I present Stanford’s February-March run of four scores of 197.625+ (three away) with a high of 198.150. For the second type, may I present conference championship Saturday, where Clemson recorded the second-best score among the schools in this regional with 197.100, a mark that has been reached by seven teams in this group—LSU, Stanford, Michigan, Clemson, Auburn, North Carolina, and (!) Air Force.

What both types can agree on is Stanford’s vault. Vault is the beam of this regional. If Stanford vaults a good one, like at the meet against Oregon State, advancing to nationals should be merely a matter of staying on the remaining apparatuses. If Stanford goes 48.800 on vault like at ACCs, then a team like Michigan or Clemson can realistically gain a fall advantage on that one apparatus, and then this is a free-for-all.

What’s Her Semifinal Story?

Rotation Order

SEMIFINAL #1
NQSHighLow
[7] Stanford197.248198.150196.400
[10] Michigan197.111197.475196.375
[22] UNC196.393197.200194.550
[26] Utah St195.905196.875195.050

For most of these afternoon semifinals, there is a sufficient gap between the favored two seeds and the underdog two seeds to expect everything to go as ranked, unless we decide to invite a counting fall to the party. This should be no exception, but it does have one unusual feature. North Carolina is the #1-ranked team in this semifinal on vault, the only unseeded team in any regional this year to be ranked #1 on any apparatus in its semifinal.

It’s cause for pause, and we have seen North Carolina get scores this season that would challenge Michigan’s recent level. That 196.800 Michigan scored at Big Tens, with Stanford’s ACC score only a few tenths higher, is not a crazy ask. Still, the seven-tenth(+) advantage in NQS that Stanford and Michigan own tells us this semifinal has clear, expected favorites.

SEMIFINAL #2
NQSHighLow
[2] LSU197.920198.325196.850
[15] Clemson196.686197.175195.925
[17] Auburn196.498197.250195.300
AF/Nebraska195.605
195.561
197.150
196.825
193.950
194.600

Item #1: Maybe let’s all stop being Tigers. There are other concepts in the world besides Tiger. That is the most important thing about this semifinal.

The second most important thing (a distant second) is that this could be the most exciting semifinal across all the regionals if Auburn shows up—and shows up in a single piece. Or close enough to it. A real hit for both Clemson’s and Auburn’s current lineups should end up being almost identical, but while Clemson has been a model of predictability this season with very little deviation in scores and very few occasions of counting a half-miss, Auburn’s meets have been just so weird. It’s been a whole season of half-misses.

A full disaster rotation like Auburn had on beam at SECs (en route to a season low 195.300) has actually been pretty rare, but much more common has been a day of three 9.6s on bars, or the entire lineup seeing the same tarantula under the beam for 9.7s. That’s not going to cut it in a regional semifinal, but everyone’s sane, normal hit should theoretically be very competitive against Clemson’s typical meet.

Individual Qualification

For those who do not make nationals with a team, one AAer and one gymnast on each apparatus also advance.

All-Around

The national rankings for the all-arounders in the LSU regional

NameTeamNQS
1Kailin ChioLSU39.795
5Anna RobertsStanford39.630
7Maggie SlifeAir Force39.565
21Julianne HuffAuburn39.395
22Ella CesarioClemson39.385
34Isabella MinerviniTowson39.290
34Gwen FinkN Carolina39.290
36Ana BarbosuStanford39.280
37Alyssa BiglerAir Force39.275
38Sydney SeabrooksN Carolina39.270
44Whitney Jencks**Nebraska39.205
45Kylee GreeneAir Force39.200
47Serena MullinN Hampshire39.155
53Isabel SikonNebraska39.065

This regional features two of the top five AAers in the country (and two of the three AAers who have scored a season-leading 39.875), but if LSU and Stanford do end up qualifying as teams, this regional presents an excellent opportunity for Air Force’s Maggie Slife to qualify to nationals.

Event Top 10s

Projecting individual event qualifiers to nationals is notoriously impossible, so here we go with the top 10 ranked gymnasts in the regional on each event.

VAULT

NameTeamNQS
1Kailin ChioLSU9.980
11Amari DraytonLSU9.915
11Kaliya LincolnLSU9.915
14Anna RobertsStanford9.910
19Jojo ValahovicUNC9.905
21Paige ZancanAuburn9.900
25Maggie SlifeAir Force9.895
25Kaya ForbesUNC9.895
30Taralyn NguyenStanford9.890
30Marissa NealAuburn9.890

If we bypass the Kailin Chio/Anna Roberts dominance duo, Jojo Valahovic of North Carolina is the top-ranked unseeded vaulter in this regional, with Auburn’s Paige Zancan also in contention to win one for the concept of doing something slightly different.

BARS

NameTeamNQS
8Konnor McClainLSU9.940
8Maggie SlifeAir Force9.940
14Isabella MinerviniTowson9.930
20Sienna RobinsonStanford9.920
20Kailin ChioLSU9.920
20Anna RobertsStanford9.920
29Ui SomaStanford9.910
33Levi Jung-RuivivarStanford9.905
33Madison UlrichLSU9.905
40Carly BaumanMichigan9.900
40Courtney BlacksonLSU9.900

Like the Kentucky regional, the LSU regional also presents a great opportunity for a bars individual from a lower-ranked team to qualify, with Slife ranked 2nd on bars in this regional and Towson’s Isabella Minervini just behind her.

BEAM

NameTeamNQS
1Kailin ChioLSU9.995
11Konnor McClainLSU9.935
13Anna RobertsStanford9.930
13Kayli BoozerMichigan9.930
17Amari DraytonLSU9.920
20Sienna RobinsonStanford9.915
23Ana BarbosuStanford9.910
29Kaliya LincolnLSU9.905
37Maggie SlifeAir Force9.895
37Jahzara RangerMichigan9.895
37Marissa NealAuburn9.895
37Temple LandryStanford9.895

If Michigan doesn’t advance as a team, beam provides an excellent opportunity for an individual qualifier. When Kayli Boozer doesn’t wobble, there’s nothing else to take.

FLOOR

NameTeamNQS
2Kaliya LincolnLSU9.960
5Kailin ChioLSU9.955
8Brie ClarkClemson9.945
9Anna RobertsStanford9.940
9Sydney SeabrooksUNC9.940
11Carly BaumanMichigan9.935
30Amari DraytonLSU9.920
30Ana BarbosuStanford9.920
30Kylie CoenLSU9.920
35Sophia DiazMichigan9.915

Half of the national top 10 on floor find themselves in this regional, with Brie Clark and Sydney Seabrooks both in with excellent chances. If Clark qualifies to nationals, will it finally be Biles I time?

Team Score Trackers

Each gymnast from the conference championship lineup is listed with her NQS on that apparatus (or average if she doesn’t have an NQS), followed by what the 5-count total for the event would be using these scores.

Because the individual NQS system still uses the old method of dropping all the bad ones, these totals are very much better-case-scenario scores. What does it look like if everyone is a perfect princess who has never done anything wrong all at the exact same time?

Semifinal #1

#7 STANFORD
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Roberts
9.910
Roberts
9.920
Roberts
9.930
Roberts
9.940
Nguyen
9.890
Robinson
9.920
Robinson
9.915
Barbosu
9.920
Gronski
9.870
Soma
9.910
Barbosu
9.910
Jung-Ruivivar
9.910
Soma
9.865
Jung-Ruivivar
9.905
Landry
9.895
Walker
9.890
Dugan
9.780
Barbosu
9.870
Dean
9.880
Robinson
9.880
Jung-Ruivivar
9.735
Sorrento
9.845
Jung-Ruivivar
9.830
Nguyen
9.865
49.31549.52549.53049.540
197.910
#10 MICHIGAN
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Ranger
9.875
Bauman
9.900
Boozer
9.930
Bauman
9.935
Diaz
9.860
Diaz
9.865
Ranger
9.895
Diaz
9.915
Guggino
9.850
Lew
9.860
Bauman
9.890
Ranger
9.900
Jordan
9.845
Jordan
9.840
Walters
9.885
Walters
9.895
Sanger
9.825
Clapper
9.820
Parenti
9.855
Davis
9.870
Davis
9.815
Sanger
9.817
Davis
9.825
Parenti
9.825
49.22549.28549.45549.515
197.480
#22 NORTH CAROLINA
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Valahovic
9.905
Fink
9.875
Valahovic
9.890
Seabrooks
9.940
Forbes
9.895
Prejean
9.860
Fink
9.870
Naranjo
9.875
Fink
9.850
Stanley
9.825
Naranjo
9.870
Forbes
9.865
Prejean
9.825
Rueda
9.810
Seabrooks
9.840
Aoki
9.825
Seabrooks
9.825
Stippich
9.800
McBride
9.750
Stippich
9.808
N King
9.825
Seabrooks
9.785
Aoki
9.710
Rueda
9.800
49.30049.17049.22049.313
197.003
#26 UTAH STATE
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Morabito
9.855
Vandetoolen
9.860
Jelen
9.860
Vater
9.880
Vandertoolen
9.805
Orengo
9.855
Witte
9.860
Gruber
9.860
Vater
9.810
Jelen
9.835
Orengo
9.825
Morabito
9.850
Valdez
9.800
Bibbey
9.825
Medrano
9.825
Orengo
9.840
Medrano
9.775
Laufer
9.820
Valdez
9.825
Yelle
9.820
Witte
9.770
Vater
9.805
Laufer
9.680
Peterson
9.785
49.04549.19549.19549.250
196.685

Semifinal #2

#2 LSU
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Chio
9.980
McClain
9.940
Chio
9.995
Lincoln
9.960
Drayton
9.915
Chio
9.920
McClain
9.935
Chio
9.955
Lincoln
9.915
Ulrich
9.905
Drayton
9.920
Drayton
9.920
Zeiss
9.875
Blackson
9.900
Lincoln
9.905
Coen
9.920
Roberts
9.865
Cowan
9.895
Coen
9.860
Innes
9.900
McClain
9.865
Zeiss
9.880
Zeiss
9.855
Ballou
9.890
49.55049.56049.61549.655
198.380
#15 CLEMSON
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Walsh
9.885
Cesario
9.875
Walsh
9.860
B Clark
9.945
Holman
9.840
Lippeatt
9.875
B Clark
9.855
Cesario
9.880
Minner
9.835
H Clark
9.870
Lippeatt
9.850
Walsh
9.880
Cesario
9.835
Malewski
9.865
Cesario
9.845
Holman
9.860
B Clark
9.820
Kuhl
9.860
Kuhl
9.830
Lippeatt
9.835
Anastasi
9.785
Berry
9.610
Malewski
9.825
Arnold
9.819
49.21549.34049.24049.400
197.195
#17 AUBURN
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Zancan
9.900
Irvine
9.885
Neal
9.895
Huff
9.905
Neal
9.890
Boyd
9.845
Irvine
9.890
Neal
9.900
Huff
9.860
Greaves
9.820
Huff
9.875
Greaves
9.880
Leverton
9.855
Huff
9.815
Hagle
9.860
Ahern
9.860
Greaves
9.775
Booth
9.780
Ahern
9.855
Bartman
9.835
Bluffstone
9.725
Bartman
9.692
Zancan
9.710
Irvine
9.800
49.28049.14549.37549.380
197.180
#30 AIR FORCE
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Slife
9.895
Slife
9.940
Slife
9.895
Slife
9.900
Bigler
9.830
Greene
9.825
Bigler
9.885
Bigler
9.890
Greene
9.795
Boyer
9.795
Greene
9.815
Greene
9.870
Raife
9.795
Hartley
9.795
Bacott
9.795
Willis
9.820
Walker
9.719
Bigler
9.785
McDermott
9.795
McDermott
9.750
Willis
9.680
Kristianson
9.550
Hartley
9.770
Hartley
9.695
49.03449.14049.18549.230
196.589
#34 NEBRASKA
VAULTBARSBEAMFLOOR
Sikon
9.825
Peterson
9.860
Kraus
9.825
Homecillo
9.870
Shaver
9.820
Kraus
9.835
Burns
9.810
Jencks
9.850
Baechle
9.815
Sikon
9.805
Sikon
9.785
Kraus
9.825
Peterson
9.800
Shaver
9.775
Gard
9.775
Sikon
9.790
Jencks
9.775
Burns
9.760
Jencks
9.775
Gard
9.730
Pech
9.710
Griffin
9.720
Griffin
9.650
Shaver
9.725
49.03549.03548.97049.065
196.105


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