Tenths above Replacement

Warning: Contains numbers.

Even though coaches don’t like to talk explicitly about replacing routines because every team is different and every gymnast is a unique gemstone with her own personal sparkle blah, blah, blah, barf, finding the routines to replace scores that are no longer with the team can be a major struggle.

Some teams have more work to do than others. As a way of measuring the value of a gymnast that has graduated or retired, we can compare that gymnast’s RQS to the score we would expect from an average replacement, a 7th-8th gymnast on a apparatus who competes in the event of an injury and keeps the team from falling apart. Certainly, that’s going to vary for every team, and Alabama on vault will be expecting a much higher replacement score than Ohio State on beam.

Still, we can assume that on average most of the top teams will be looking at a replacement score of about 9.800. 9.800 is just OK for a team expecting to make Championships, and nearly all of these teams have 9.800s who were sitting on the bench last season.

So, in analyzing how much replacement work the top 12 teams from last year have to do, we can examine how much the average team score would decrease if we replaced the graduated/retired routines from 2012 (measured by RQS) with 9.800s. That is the tenths above replacement score. For example, if all the Ferguson, Stone, and Cindell routines from last year become 9.800s instead, Oklahoma’s team score goes down an average of 0.700.

A few notes:
-Gymnasts are included if they made the final lineup for the team, be it in Super Six or Semifinals. That’s why Cindell is here even though she likely wouldn’t have competed if not for Nowak’s injury. A healthy Nowak makes up some of that 0.700 right away.
-In cases where a gymnast competed on an event but the RQS was below replacement level (below 9.800), I did not include that routine in the statistics as it should be replaceable.
-In cases where a gymnast did not have an RQS because of injury but did contribute in the postseason, I used the postseason average instead. I also intervened in the case of Kyndal Robarts since her very low RQS was not representative of the fact that Utah will have to find a score to replace hers on floor. It’s cheating, but it creates more realistic numbers. What can I say? I’m a rogue. Without that change, Utah’s number would be 0.390, if you’re interested.
-The numbers slightly underestimate the importance of the seniors for Ohio State, where 9.800s were more rare and valuable last season. The Buckeyes have some of the most replacing to do.

Tenths above Replacement:

1. Oklahoma – 0.700
Megan Ferguson – 0.380 (Bars: 9.910, Beam: 9.930, Floor: 9.940)
Sara Stone – 0.295 (Vault: 9.935, Beam: 9.875, Floor: 9.885)
Candace Cindell – 0.025 (Bars: 9.825)

2. Arkansas – 0.545
Jaime Pisani – 0.440 (Vault: 9.910, Bars: 9.895, Beam: 9.895, Floor: 9.940)
Mariah Howdeshell – 0.105 (Bars: 9.905)

3. UCLA – 0.510
Elyse Hopfner-Hibbs – 0.220 (Vault: 9.815, Beam: 9.885, Floor: 9.920)
Aisha Gerber – 0.145 (Bars: 9.890, Beam: 9.855)
Tauny Frattone – 0.145 (Vault: 9.920, Floor: 9.825)

4. Georgia – 0.458 
Kat Ding – 0.338 (Vault: 9.910, Bars: 9.935, Beam: 9.830, Floor: 9.863)
Gina Nuccio – 0.085 (Bars: 9.885, Floor: 9.800)
Laura Moffatt – 0.035 (Beam: 9.835)

5. Utah – 0.457
Kyndal Robarts – 0.222 (Vault: 9.900, Beam: 9.855, Floor: 9.867)
Stephanie McAllister – 0.180 (Bars: 9.865, Beam: 9.825, Floor: 9.890)
Cortni Beers – 0.055 (Bars: 9.810, Beam: 9.845)

6. Oregon State – 0.440
Leslie Mak – 0.305 (Vault: 9.810, Bars: 9.885, Beam: 9.930, Floor: 9.880)
Olivia Vivian – 0.135 (Bars: 9.895, Beam: 9.840)

7. Stanford – 0.393
Alyssa Brown – 0.233 (Vault: 9.908, Bars: 9.875, Beam: 9.850)
Nicole Pechanec – 0.160 (Vault: 9.810, Bars: 9.900, Floor: 9.850)

8. Alabama – 0.310
Geralen Stack-Eaton – 0.310 (Vault: 9.895, Bars: 9.890, Beam: 9.820, Floor: 9.905)

9. Ohio State – 0.240
Alyssa Marohn – 0.080 (Vault: 9.840, Bars: 9.815, Beam: 9.825)
Nicole Krauter – 0.060 (Vault: 9.835, Beam: 9.825)
Taylor Jones – 0.050 (Vault: 9.800, Bars: 9.815, Floor: 9.835)
Casey Williamson – 0.050 (Bars: 9.845, Floor: 9.805)

10. Nebraska – 0.235
Lora Evenstad – 0.235 (Vault: 9.825, Bars: 9.910, Floor: 9.900)

11. Florida – 0.100
Nicole Ellis – 0.065 (Bars: 9.865)
Amy Ferguson – 0.035 (Floor: 9.835)

12. LSU – 0.055
Ashley Lee – 0.055 (Vault: 9.855)

One thought on “Tenths above Replacement”

  1. This is very interesting! What would be even more exciting is to, armed with this informationm, now look at the freshman coming in & see which teams potentially were most successful in recruiting where needed.


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