Friday Scores – Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Oklahoma

Friday – 3/8/13
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Bowling Green @ [20] Kentucky Scores Video(subscription)
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [19] Illinois @ Missouri Scores Video(subscription)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [16] Arizona @ [2] Oklahoma Scores
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [5] Alabama @ [4] LSU Scores
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Lindenwood @ [11] Auburn Scores Video(subscription)
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [23] Boise State, Davis, Seattle Pacific @ San Jose State Scores

Alabama’s lineups are slightly different today (now that they have been fixed).
Sledge is back in on vault and the order has been jumbled up again. Clark is back to the leadoff position even though she was the highest scorer last week. Floor is also different, but I think good-different with Jacob anchoring. Sledge is still off floor, though, in favor of Beers. While Kayla Williams was first listed as anchoring bars, that has been changed to better reflect the actual universe.

For LSU some changes have been made, obviously with consistency in mind (especially the first two). Hall is in on bars for Jordan, Garcia is back on beam for Ranzy, and Taylor is in on floor for Jordan.

Not much going on until 8 ET, but in addition to the big names in action, it will be important to follow Auburn’s progress. They are #11 in the country now, ranked ahead of Nebraska, so the era of the condescending “Look, Auburn got a 196! Awww, great for them!” has passed. It’s now about how they compare with the best teams. The standard is higher.

I’m keeping an eye on Kentucky since that’s the only thing to keep an eye on right now. Kentucky’s vault landings have improved noticeably since the last time I saw them – a crunched stick from Hedges and another stick from Cunningham. 49.100.
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Checking in on Missouri and Illinois. Missouri is currently 37th in the country, so they have a big of unexpected Regionals panic going on. I do expect them to make it, but they have yet to get even into the 195s this year. I like the double kip jaegers from See. Some 9.7y bars work from Illinois. Missouri trying to salvage that much from these early Yfulls after just a layout Yurchenko is the first spot.

Nice amplitude in the tkatchev and DLO in the third spot for Illinois from O’Connor. I like the composition of these routines, but they are giving away a lot on handstands and leg form that is keeping them from 9.850s. Amplitude on releases is nice, though. Sunny Kato is an awesome name. Too bad that pak was not awesome. That should be the dropped score. Weinstein anchors well, similarly good amplitude but will get dinged for leg separations. 

Missouri has a fall in the anchor position on vault, just a 48.625 there. Illinois goes 49.025 on bars after a 9.900 from Weinstein.
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After 2 rotations: Kentucky 98.125, Bowling Green 97.650. This is on the way to being a very important score for both teams. Bowling Green is on low 195s pace (with a season high in the mid 194s).
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Color me wrong about Oklahoma’s lineups. I thought we would see some resting at this the first of two weekend meets, but they are going with full strength and Spears and Olson both in the AA. Also note that Alabama’s lineups have been fixed and Priess is competing bars. Phew.

OK, let’s get going with the good stuff. I’m attempting the Alabama audio/Auburn video double, so we’ll see how that works out.

Missouri is counting a fall on bars now, and the Tigers may very well be fighting for that Regionals spot right up through SECs.

LSU has been getting those sticks for 49.5s on vault, and Dickson begins with a stuck Yfull. Sledge goes on bars, sounds like a strong routine as usual for her. A 9.925 in the leadoff position tells us a lot about both LSU’s vaulting and the way the scoring can go tonight. Taylor hops in the second position. 9.900 for Sledge. Big start. 9.950 from one judge and a 9.850 from the other.

Alexin with a 9.850 in the second position. Jacob missing her handstands, which has been the trend for her. 9.900 and 9.875 for LSU on vault before Lau goes with a couple of steps apparently, but it’s a 9.925. Interesting that Jacob goes 9.800 because it sounded worse that that and has often gone lower than that this year, Clark also apparently struggling with handstands before a strong dismount. 

If Alabama can get through these middle routines with strong scores, they will be in excellent shape. 9.850 for Clark. They’re setting it up for LSU to get major scores on bars if Alabama is getting 9.8s for handstand problems. Also sounds like DeMeo is struggling.

Courville has a minor hop on her vault, but LSU hardly needed it because they will go well over 49.500 yet again. Audio announcers tell us that Priess hit her DLO, which is like the sun has finally come out for her. She goes into the 9.9s, which is new.

LSU goes 49.600 on vault. We know they can be great, but it sounds like they had a few steps that could have been deducted but weren’t. 49.350 for Alabama which is a big victory after all the low scores on that event (though it also sounds like they got a couple gifts in the middle).
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Auburn hasn’t quite gotten the landings so far on vault, Bri Guy up now, great power on her yfull as always with a hop in place – very minor.

Obviously it’s going to be a work in progress for Lindenwood, and those first bars routine were roughsville, but I just saw something quite nice in the fifth position. Good for them. Two bars routines that should be solidly 9.7 in the final two positions. Arkinson finishes for Auburn with her 1.5, bent knees and a pretty sizable hop to the side.

Note: Oklahoma 49.500 on vault. 198 watch at home again?
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Clark has a step on her yfull for Alabama, but she usually sticks, so that’s a big of an under-performance. Hall goes on bars, has handstand issues which she always does and then sounds to have had an awkward landing. Sledge also hops on her vault, which can happen. She has more trouble controlling her power.

9.850 and 9.875 for Alabama in the first two, good scores for missed landings. Ranzy also had handstand problems with a step on dismount. Williams sticks yfull. How high can that go? 9.975. Stick for 10s, that appears to be the rule today.

Dickson falls on her jaeger, so they’ll be counting Hall’s 9.700. It won’t be that major bars score again. The scores have been covering up some weaknesses this year, even though LSU is much improved on bars.

Step from Sims on her yfull. Courville on bars, she usually has a very clean routine except for her shoot to the high bar, which is often a struggle. Sounds like a strong routine. 9.925 – same score as Priess. Beers also took a step for 9.925. One stick for Alabama so far, but a huge score coming. Milliner also takes a step on her 1.5. She has to work out that stick for this lineup to score well in the postseason. They need a 9.950 from her.

The final three routines for LSU save the bars rotation, so this will be a big score even counting the 9.700 from Hall. Alabama vaults a 49.525 after Milliner’s 9.875. Both teams are looking to go well into the 197s today. It’s extremely likely that Alabama passes LSU in the rankings now if they hit these last two rotations for 9.875s and the like.

LSU gets a 49.300 on bars, so at the halfway point we have LSU 98.900, Alabama 98.875
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Walker now for Auburn on bars is clean, some legs and a latish pirouette but a great stick on the DLO.

First final of the day: Kentucky 196.375, Bowling Green 192.700. Big score for Kentucky’s RQS. Low 49s on every event.

Like Walker, Atkinson is mostly clean, a couple of rushed handstands but a nice stick on the dismount. Petrina finishing for Auburn, love the difficulty in the pirouetting and transitions but she will get docked for being late – step on the double tuck. Solid routines in those last few spots.
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Frost leads off floor for Alabama today instead of Priess, has some lack of control on her DLO.
Wyrick has been added to the beam lineup at the last minute for LSU, sounds like a strong stick. Two scores over 9.8 in the first two positions is rather a big deal for LSU. Priess goes clean in the second position. 9.875.

Taylor having a struggle on beam, issue on full turn and major bend on straddle quarter. They’re messing with the lineup a bit, which is necessary given the recent struggles. 

Beers now on floor for Alabama. She has struggled in her routines so far this year and is the smart money choice to come out when Sledge comes back, but she does have stronger difficulty and will be useful if she gets the consistency down. Dismount – double back instead of double tuck, step but stays up. 9.875.

A few balance issues for Hall and a step on dismount. They’ve taken Dickson off beam, and the commentators said she looked pained after her bars fall. Was DeMeo’s routine called “so polished” “so solid” or “so college”? I couldn’t tell, and any of them could fit.

Courville hits her Arabian, has a wobble on her aerial, otherwise hit. The earlier scores were setting up for a huge score for Courville.
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Oklahoma will be fighting against a beam fall from Alexander. It’s a shame that she’s struggling lately because it’s such a fun routine with the flexibility in the center.
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Milliner has a major floor routine in the tumbling area. Balance checks from Jordan on beam but nothing major happening there. Hit beam rotation from LSU, which is very significant. Jacob finishes floor for Alabama. Sounds like Alabama has its strongest event of the day on floor, which was the case last week as well. 9.950 from Jacob, which gives Alabama a 49.500 – lower score than vault but that doesn’t always reflect quality.

After 3: Alabama 148.375, LSU 148.150
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Walker up fifth for Auburn on beam, wobble on front toss, again on the series, a little low on dismount with a step. A bit of a struggle but nothing major. They’re trying to drop a 9.675 on beam, and this will certainly score higher than that.

Final: Illinois 196.200, Missouri 194.125. Missouri can’t get out of that scoring funk, this time because of bars where they showed five routines, two of which were falls.

Atkinson for Auburn finishing up with a fair shot at making this the strongest event of the day so far. Clean through her acro skills but is well short on her double pike and falls. No major problem, though, and the rotation will skill go over 49.
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Milliner on beam has one check and a step on dismount. Wyrick in again for LSU and for Dickson, this time on floor – she was supposed to compete one event and is now competing three. Not completely controlled in the tumbling but a hit.

Big wobble for Clark on her sheep jump, otherwise hits with a step on the dismount. 9.800. Sounds like either a fall or a brush for Taylor in the second position for LSU, but she scores a 9.775 – so what happened there?

In Oklahoma, the Sooners got through beam after the fall with a 49.300, but it’s the lowest scoring event for them so far. The 198 is now quite unlikely, but the high 197 is still very likely.

Back in Louisiana, in our non-fall routines so far tonight, we’ve seen just two scores under 9.8, both 9.775s. Wobble for Kayla Williams on an under-done popa – step on 1.5 landing.

Mathis hits until a step and OOB on floor, not LSU’s day on floor, which is unexpected.9.625, so they’ll be counting two 9.775s so far. Alabama has been giving away wobbles on their routines, and now DeMeo had a great routine going until a fall on her dismount. 9.300.

Savona lacks a little control on her mount but otherwise hits. Jacob gets things back on track for Alabama with solid acro, hop on 1.5 dismount.

Must hits in the final positions for both teams, Courville does the job for 9.900, and now Priess on beam – ensures that DeMeo’s fall goes away and that the beam score will be strong and that both teams will go over 197. Jacob and Priess finish with 9.925 and 9.950. That ensures the Alabama victory.

All I can hear is screaming, so I assume Hall’s floor routine was a hit. Another home 10 for her. There wasn’t really a doubt if she hit given how the scoring was going tonight. The next challenge for her will be getting that kind of score on the road.

Final: Alabama 197.725, LSU 197.500
Season highs for both teams, which means that Alabama will move ahead of LSU in the rankings now that the Tide can count the previous 197.650. Alabama also moves ahead of Michigan for the time being, but Michigan is yet to compete this weekend.
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Bri Guy finishing fo Auburn on floor. They have a 9.650 here they’d like to drop. The DLO was very high to start and she controlled it well enough. Hit routine for her, so they will drop that low score and go into the mid 196s. Lindenwood finishes at 190.450, which is higher than their current RQS.

Oklahoma manages a 49.600 on floor with a 9.9 festival. (I cannot remember seeing this many high scores on floor in a season. Scores have been high all year on all events in all places, but floor stands out to me the most.) Oklahoma finishes with 197.875, their second-highest score of the season. Arizona will also go over 196.

Still waiting on that last score for Guy, but that does it for the day. I’ll be back tomorrow for the Georgia/Utah meet at 6:00 ET/3:00 PT. It should be a great one.

Auburn finishes with 196.400 after Guy’s 9.850.

 

The Weekend Ahead – March 8–10

Apparently competing on Friday isn’t the cool thing to do anymore as just three of the top-ten teams will be in action. The most important meet is Alabama/LSU, and I don’t think many would have predicted Alabama coming to LSU in March as the lower-ranked team. Bars will be the primary event to keep an eye on since LSU has been overperforming there and Alabama has been underperforming. Alabama has a fairly good shot at passing LSU in the rankings with a win at this meet (guaranteed if the Tide score 197.300).

Saturday is a bit more of the place to be, particularly because of the Utah/Georgia meet, which I will obviously be blogging. I thought Georgia was a little hard done by with the result at LSU, but it has become too easy to dismiss the Gymdogs since there always seems to be something wrong. They could use a home 197. Beam will unsurprisingly be the event to watch, but keep an eye on all of Georgia Dabritz’s performances for Utah. The Utes will not ultimately be successful unless she is their top AA gymnast for at least 39.5s every week. 

On Sunday, UCLA hosts Michigan and some other teams, but mostly Michigan. I’m just as interested in this meet as I am in Georgia/Utah and frankly, UCLA could use the benefit of a little home scoring with all these low 196s going around. Who knows with UCLA’s lineups, but Mattie may be coming in on vault, which is all kinds of necessary. If MDLT is healthy, she should be coming in on vault and bars as well. These are the kinds of personnel changes UCLA needs to compete with the likes of Michigan, a team that seems solidly 197 at this point. Zamarripa and Sampson are the top AAers in the country (because Hunter and Sloan don’t have RQS), so that should be an interesting individual contest as well. 

It’s going to be a good weekend. This is the time when teams have to start polishing those final lineups, and we should get a clearer sense of how they will perform over the next month+.

Top 25 Schedule

Friday – 3/8/13
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Bowling Green @ [20] Kentucky
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [19] Illinois @ Missouri
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [16] Arizona @ [2] Oklahoma
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [5] Alabama @ [4] LSU
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Lindenwood @ [11] Auburn
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [23] Boise State, Davis, Seattle Pacific @ San Jose State

Saturday – 3/9/13
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [17] Kent State, Air Force, Alaska @ Eastern Michigan
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – New Hampshire, Penn, Temple @ [15] Penn State
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Bridgeport @ [18] Ohio State
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – [7] Utah @ [8] Georgia
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [12] Nebraska, [24] Arkansas, Centenary @ [14] Minnesota
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Arizona State, Illinois State @ [13] Denver
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [22] Washington, Sacramento State @ [10] Oregon State

Sunday – 3/10/13 
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [21] West Virginia @ George Washington
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – Ball State, Illinois-Chicago @ [19] Illinois
3:30 ET/12:30 PT – [9] Stanford, North Carolina @ [2] Oklahoma
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [3] Michigan, Cal, Iowa State @ [6] UCLA
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Central Michigan, Yale @ [24] Maryland

Ideal Performance and RQS Update

My primary complaint with RQS as a ranking barometer is that it reduces the season to such a small sample size of six meets that it ends up measuring ideal team performance rather than providing a comprehensive look at the whole season, highs and lows. Teams are essentially able to yell, “Takeover!” on all their bad meets as long as they have six good ones. As a result, mercurial teams usually end up over-ranked and consistent ones end up under-ranked. In the postseason, it is often only a few teams that meet or exceed RQS. The majority of teams underperform this number.

Of course, the winners do beat their RQS (and everyone else’s). Ideal performance, while maybe not the most illuminating way to rank teams after a season of performances, does give us a sense of what a team is capable of doing at Championships and what it will have to strive to beat in order to win. So let’s take it a step further and look at the ideal performances for each top 12 team as recorded so far this season (season highs on each event).

Since home scores can usually get a little imaginative, take this with a necessary shaker of salt. This is not a predictor of postseason scoring but a guide to team potential. As a reference point, over the last few years, the national champion has ended up with a Super Six score somewhere between two and five tenths lower than the season ideal. Teams almost never exceed their season ideals in the postseason, so also take this as a potential indicator of postseason ceiling (with, of course, a few weeks left to improve these numbers). Next week, I’ll come down off this cloud and look at road scores. 

Team ideal performances – (season high scores on each apparatus)

1. Florida
Vault: 49.625
Bars: 49.675
Beam: 49.600
Floor: 49.700
Total: 198.600 (Rank: 1)

2. Oklahoma
Vault: 49.525
Bars: 49.575
Beam: 49.600
Floor: 49.675
Total: 198.375 (Rank: 2)
(Hmm, that number looks familiar.)

3. Michigan
Vault: 49.400
Bars: 49.375
Beam: 49.275
Floor: 49.625
Total: 197.675 (Rank: 8)
The lower scoring ceiling may be a concern for the Wolverines as we head to the final weeks.

4. LSU
Vault: 49.550
Bars: 49.450
Beam: 49.275
Floor: 49.525
Total: 197.800 (Rank: T3)
(As I mentioned on Monday, LSU does quite well in the ideal world. It’s whether they can hit beam to make it to the ideal world that is cause for concern.)

5. Alabama
Vault: 49.475
Bars: 49.400
Beam: 49.425
Floor: 49.500
Total: 197.800 (Rank: T3)

6. UCLA
Vault: 49.350
Bars: 49.300
Beam: 49.300
Floor: 49.550
Total: 197.500 (Rank: 11)
(This is why people are worried about you, UCLA.)

  
7. Utah
Vault: 49.500
Bars: 49.300
Beam: 49.325
Floor: 49.575
Total: 197.700 (Rank: 7)

8. Georgia
Vault: 49.550
Bars: 49.450
Beam: 49.425
Floor: 49.375
Total: 197.800 (Rank: T3)

9. Stanford
Vault: 49.425
Bars: 49.400
Beam: 49.475
Floor: 49.500
Total: 197.800 (Rank: T3)

10. Oregon State
Vault: 49.425
Bars: 49.450
Beam: 49.175
Floor: 49.325
Total: 197.375 (Rank: 12)

11. Auburn
Vault: 49.300
Bars: 49.275
Beam: 49.425
Floor: 49.525
Total: 197.525 (Rank: T9)

12. Nebraska
Vault: 49.375
Bars: 49.450
Beam: 49.325
Floor: 49.375
Total: 197.525 (Rank: T9)
(Nebraska’s number goes higher if we include Monday’s meet, but that is not officially part of the rankings yet.)

As we see from these ideals, most teams besides Florida and Oklahoma are at a very similar level when they hit to current potential, which should make for a very exciting Semifinal day.  
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And now, the RQS picture. As before, bold scores cannot be dropped.

1. Florida (Current RQS: 197.440)
Road Score 1: 197.575
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 196.575
Road/Home Score 1: 198.425
Road Home Score 2: 198.100
Road/Home Score 3: 197.650

2. Oklahoma (Current RQS: 197.410)
Road Score 1: 197.625
Road Score 2: 197.450
Road Score 3: 197.375
Road/Home Score 1: 198.375
Road/Home Score 2: 197.325
Road/Home Score 3: 197.275

With Florida on a bye and Oklahoma with two home meets, the Sooners are in strong shape to move back up to #1, needing a 197.450 at one of the meets to pass Florida.

3. Michigan (Current RQS: 197.080)
Road Score 1: 197.300
Road Score 2: 196.925
Road Score 3: 196.925
Road/Home Score 1: 197.375
Road/Home Score 2: 197.350
Road/Home Score 3: 196.900

4. LSU (Current RQS: 196.965)
Road Score 1: 197.275
Road Score 2: 197.100
Road Score 3: 196.975
Road/Home Score 1: 197.050
Road/Home Score 2: 196.875
Road/Home Score 3: 196.825

5. Alabama (Current RQS: 196.910)
Road Score 1: 197.100
Road Score 2: 196.950
Road Score 3: 196.850
Road/Home Score 1: 197.650
Road/Home Score 2: 197.075
Road/Home Score 3: 196.575

6. UCLA (Current RQS: 196.765)
Road Score 1: 197.200
Road Score 2: 196.925
Road Score 3: 196.375
Road/Home Score 1: 197.425
Road/Home Score 2: 196.950
Road/Home Score 3: 196.375

7. Utah (Current RQS: 196.740)
Road Score 1: 197.125
Road Score 2: 196.600
Road Score 3: 195.975
Road/Home Score 1: 197.300
Road/Home Score 2: 197.050
Road/Home Score 3: 196.950

8. Georgia (Current RQS: 196.725)
Road Score 1: 196.825
Road Score 2: 196.825
Road Score 3: 196.775
Road/Home Score 1: 197.500
Road/Home Score 2: 197.000
Road/Home Score 3: 196.200

9. Stanford (Current RQS: 196.590)
Road Score 1: 197.075
Road Score 2: 196.450
Road Score 3: 196.025
Road/Home Score 1: 197.275
Road/Home Score 2: 197.200
Road/Home Score 3: 196.200

10. Oregon State (Current RQS: 196.565)
Road Score 1: 197.175
Road Score 2: 196.825
Road Score 3: 196.300
Road/Home Score 1: 196.925
Road/Home Score 2: 196.725
Road/Home Score 3: 196.050

11. Auburn (Current RQS: 196.495)
Road Score 1: 196.725
Road Score 2: 196.575
Road Score 3: 196.025
Road/Home Score 1: 197.175
Road/Home Score 2: 196.825
Road/Home Score 3: 196.325

12. Nebraska (Current RQS: 196.365)
Road Score 1: 196.300
Road Score 2: 196.150
Road Score 3: 195.625
Road/Home Score 1: 197.175
Road/Home Score 2: 197.050
Road/Home Score 3: 196.700
(Nebraska’s RQS is 196.460 if we include Monday’s score of 197.675, but they have three road meets remaining and three road scores that need dropping to get that ranking up.)

13. Denver (Current RQS: 196.150)
Road Score 1: 196.800
Road Score 2: 196.400
Road Score 3: 195.850
Road/Home Score 1: 196.600
Road/Home Score 2: 196.050
Road/Home Score 3: 195.850

14. Minnesota (Current RQS: 196.130)
Road Score 1: 197.175
Road Score 2: 195.550
Road Score 3: 195.525
Road/Home Score 1: 196.800
Road/Home Score 2: 196.775
Road/Home Score 3: 196.000

15. Penn State (Current RQS: 195.845)
Road Score 1: 196.700
Road Score 2: 196.300
Road Score 3: 195.150
Road/Home Score 1: 196.700
Road/Home Score 2: 195.575
Road/Home Score 3: 195.500

16. Arizona (Current RQS: 195.775)
Road Score 1: 195.950
Road Score 2: 195.800
Road Score 3: 195.200
Road/Home Score 1: 196.500
Road/Home Score 2: 196.075
Road/Home Score 3: 195.850

17. Kent State (Current RQS: 195.755)
Road Score 1: 195.800
Road Score 2: 195.800
Road Score 3: 195.450
Road/Home Score 1: 196.250
Road/Home Score 2: 196.050
Road/Home Score 3: 195.675

18. Ohio State (Current RQS: 195.750)
Road Score 1: 195.950
Road Score 2: 195.575
Road Score 3: 195.000
Road/Home Score 1: 196.300
Road/Home Score 2: 196.250
Road/Home Score 3: 195.975

19. Illinois (Current RQS: 195.685)
Road Score 1: 196.350
Road Score 2: 195.450
Road Score 3: 195.100
Road/Home Score 1: 196.125
Road/Home Score 2: 195.975
Road/Home Score 3: 195.775

20. Kentucky (Current RQS: 195.635)
Road Score 1: 196.500
Road Score 2: 196.075
Road Score 3: 195.525
Road/Home Score 1: 195.825
Road/Home Score 2: 195.500
Road/Home Score 3: 195.250

21. West Virginia (Current RQS: 195.625)
Road Score 1: 195.775
Road Score 2: 195.150
Road Score 3: 194.675
Road/Home Score 1: 196.550
Road/Home Score 2: 196.375
Road/Home Score 3: 196.150

22. Washington (Current RQS: 195.520)
Road Score 1: 196.000
Road Score 2: 195.950
Road Score 3: 194.875
Road/Home Score 1: 196.025
Road/Home Score 2: 195.975
Road/Home Score 3: 194.800

23. Boise State (Current RQS: 195.485)
Road Score 1: 195.575
Road Score 2: 194.700
Road Score 3: 194.525
Road/Home Score 1: 196.575
Road/Home Score 2: 196.325
Road/Home Score 3: 196.300

24. Maryland (Current RQS: 195.435)
Road Score 1: 195.975
Road Score 2: 195.300
Road Score 3: 195.000
Road/Home Score 1: 196.175
Road/Home Score 2: 195.600
Road/Home Score 3: 195.300

25. Arkansas (Current RQS: 195.435)
Road Score 1: 195.650
Road Score 2: 195.625
Road Score 3: 193.075
Road/Home Score 1: 197.100
Road/Home Score 2: 196.650
Road/Home Score 3: 196.175
(Watch out for Arkansas once that 193 goes away this weekend.)

Week 9 Rankings and Notes

Into the final quarter of the year we head, and the era of solidifying lineups and cleaning routines begins.

1. Florida – 197.440
Week 9: 198.425
Week 9 leaders: AA – Hunter 39.800; VT – Hunter 9.975; UB – M Caquatto 9.975; BB – Sloan 9.975; FX – King 9.975.

So much for everything I said last week about the #2 ranking being the ideal position for the Gators so as to slightly lessen their status as the expected champion. As was true with Oklahoma last week, the score itself is irrelevant and won’t be maintained to this degree away from home. What’s more important is that the people who will be counted on in the postseason recovered while the lower (relative term) scores in the meet came from those who won’t remain in the lineup. Florida is on a well-timed bye this week, but watch those lineups the next week to see how the leadoff spots are being handled (i.e., get rid of anything under a 9.825) along with the status of Alaina Johnson.

2. Oklahoma – 197.410
Week 9: 197.275
Week 9 leaders: AA – Brewer 39.300; VT – Olson 9.975; UB – Olson 9.900; BB – Spears 9.950; FX – Olson, Albright 9.900

There was always going to be a letdown from last week. Through the first two events, the Sooners’ performance did not waver significantly from the home 198, but the landings were not as precise, which ended up accounting for some of the depression in scores and meant that those 9.925s became 9.850s. If Oklahoma is to contend for the title, that contention will be built on sticking almost every landing. A fall and some 9.7s marred the beam rotation, but otherwise the issues appeared minor and very March-like. The Sooners have two home meets over the weekend, so expect some backups and some resting (especially in the first meet since the second is senior night). 


3. Michigan – 197.080
Week 9: 197.300
Week 9 leaders: AA – Sampson 39.650; VT – Sampson 9.950; UB – Sampson, Gies 9.900; BB – Gies 9.925; FX – Sampson 9.950

The Wolverines have not faltered in the way that one might have expected them to, given that the team is relatively unheralded and that the expectations going into the season were along the lines of “It has to be better than last year, right?” It’s encouraging that they didn’t really have a full-strength lineup or hit to potential on any event and yet scored in the 197s. What we’re going to need to see next, however, is how well this team can score when it does hit to potential. The best teams won’t be counting any scores under 9.850, and Michigan still needs to weed out those early 9.800s.

4. LSU – 196.965
Week 9: 197.050
Week 9 leaders: AA – Courville 39.450; VT – Courville 9.925; UB – Wyrick, Morrison 9.925; BB – Jordan 9.875; FX – Hall – 9.950

How do we feel about LSU being #4 in the country? This is one of the features of RQS, that teams are able to drop the meets in which they do not look championship caliber and are ranked based more on ideal performance than total performance. Ranked by average, LSU would be #6, which I think better accounts for the concerns I have about the beam rotation. Once again last week, the Tigers just got through it, and that’s likely what we’ll see each week. The result of which is that LSU’s total ceiling is lower. If we assume a 49.000 for a hit beam rotation, then the Tigers are going to top out in the low-mid 197s (if they get #1-quality performances on vault and floor, which is common for them) and likely won’t be in control of their own fate when we get down to the end of Championships. If we’re playing the silver lining game, though, they are really accustomed to competing after falls.

5. Alabama – 196.910
Week 9: 197.075
Week 9 leaders: AA – Jacob 39.425; VT – Clark 9.900; UB – Sledge 9.850; BB – Priess 9.925; FX – Milliner, Jacob 9.950

Alabama looked . . . fine against UCLA. Beam was probably the most convincing event and even without Gutierrez on floor, that rotation should be solid enough if Sledge comes back in. Vault was certainly understaffed at that meet, but at this point in the season I would not have expected to be still talking about vault as a problem area for the Tide. I fully anticipate that the landings will come together, but a lack of Gutierrez makes that Milliner stick for 9.950 all the more important. As for bars, what is there to say at this point? Alabama cannot compete with Florida without significant changes.

6. UCLA – 196.765
Week 9: 196.375
Week 9 leaders: AA – Zamarripa 38.825; VT – Zamarripa 9.950; UB – Zamarripa 9.900; BB – Larson 9.900; FX – Courtney 9.875

If there was ever evidence how much this team relies on Zamarripa, it was this meet. Consider that if Zamarripa had hit to the level we expect of her on floor and beam, the team score would have been in the high 196s, and the narrative would be completely different. I don’t expect a repeat of that performance from her, but this meet was still a step back for the Bruins because of the nature of the mistakes we saw from the team as a whole: falls, severely missed handstands, and significantly under-rotated tumbling. At this meet, I counted three good routines per event (two on floor), and that’s not enough. A team as injured as this one needs to squeeze every possible .050 out of all the backups who are being forced to compete. Wong was supposed to come in on floor at this meet and didn’t. She desperately needs to.

7. Utah – 196.740
Week 9: 197.126
Week 9 leaders: AA – Wilson 39.450; VT – Wilson 9.950; UB – Dabritz 9.900; BB – Wilson, Lofgren 9.875; FX – Tutka 9.925

Utah keeps plugging away, which is what they are going to have to do to have a shot at making Super Six this year. I have a bit more confidence in Utah’s beam than I do in LSU’s, but that is quite a little contest. We’re beginning to see a trend where the rotation starts out perfectly fine, then Lopez has an issue, which turns into a Dabritz issue, and the score falls apart. Next week at Georgia, that has to stop being a thing. It’s always a big meet at Georgia, and the lack of comfort the Utes will feel should be a good test of the progress of that beam rotation and how mentally sturdy it can be.

8. Georgia – 196.725
Week 9: 196.825
Week 9 leaders: AA – Rogers 39.225; VT – Davis 9.900; UB – Rogers, Davis 9.900; BB – Worley 9.900; FX – Tanella 9.875

Another injury to Noel Couch was the last thing this team needed, and she will be out for multiple weeks. Floor will miss her the most as Brittany Rogers has not been a solution in that fourth position. The Gymdogs are fighting against depth and losing on that particular event, and even though they should take pride in working out beam these last few weeks, a lack of Couch does not help that situation either. Of course it would be that once they get beam in order, they regress on the good events. This is the second straight week of some lackluster vaulting, and that has to be a 49.400-49.500 rotation for Georgia to succeed.

9. Stanford – 196.590
Week 9: 197.200
Week 9 leaders: AA – A Morgan 39.050; VT – Hanset 9.925; UB – A Morgan 9.925; BB – Hong 9.925; FX – A Morgan, S Morgan 9.925

Most important things first: Stand up and give a round of applause to Stanford for figuring out the live scoring. Now back to our regular issues. The scoring in last week’s meet was going into the stratosphere until a counting fall on beam brought the Cardinal number back into normal land. Consistency has to be a focus because if Stanford is going to make Super Six again, it will be because of beam, where they should be top three in the country. Don’t count Stanford out because there are so many potential 9.9s here, but this is the kind of team that will reduce your nails to stubs every week.

10. Oregon State – 196.565
Week 9: 197.175
Week 9 leaders: AA – Stambaugh 39.525; VT – Blalock 9.950; UB – Stambaugh 9.950; BB – Jones 9.875; FX – Jones, Stambaugh 9.950

Like Stanford, Oregon State lost the opportunity for a massive number at a high-scoring meet because of beam. But whereas Stanford should eventually excel because of beam, the Beavers will want just to get through it and live to compete on another event. For this team to be a contender in the postseason, Stambaugh must continue on the current level, and Jones must be winning floor and hitting beam. They won’t be able to rely on always getting the 9.875s and 9.900s from the supporting cast members that they got last week, but the stars can carry this team farther than it looked like it could go even a few weeks ago.

11. Auburn – 196.495
12. Nebraska – 196.365
13. Denver – 196.150
14. Minnesota – 196.130
15. Penn State – 195.845
16. Arizona – 195.775
17. Kent State – 195.755
18. Ohio State – 195.750
19. Illinois – 195.685
20. Kentucky – 195.635
21. West Virginia – 195.625
22. Washington – 195.520
23. Boise State – 195.485
24. Maryland – 195.435
24. Arkansas – 195.435

Full Rankings