For the last few seasons, I’ve been particularly interested in the trend of rising scores in NCAA, which is a relevant issue considering that the average team score for the top 36 teams in the country increased four tenths from 2012 to 2013 (from 195.406 in 2012 to 195.802 in 2013). That’s almost a fall worth of increase per team per meet, which is fairly insane. Were teams really a fall better in 2013 than in 2012? No. The evaluation of routines is clearly getting more lenient across the board. Now that the 2014 season is over, it’s time to revisit the topic following a year in which scores appeared to increase another notch with all the 10s and 198s we saw. Here are the average scores for the NCAA top 36 from 1999-2014:
And here’s the same information, but limited to just the span from 2006-2014 to zero in on recent trends.
The results are somewhat interesting for 2014 because while the scores did increase over last season, just as anyone who watched this year would have guessed, the overall increase is not particularly large. Now, those of us who have been following the scores closely would certainly argue that the mega-scoring we saw this season is only part of a trend that began in earnest last season, which is reinforced by the numbers, with 2014 seeing another jump over 2013 and coming in as the second-highest scoring season in NCAA history behind 2004.
But, the increase is perhaps surprising in its smallness. In fact, the increase from 195.802 in 2013 to 195.861 in 2014 comes out to only .059, or just a little bit more than one step per meet per team, which is notable but not exceptionally significant in the grand scheme of meet scoring. It’s certainly not the full four tenths leap we saw the previous year. So, why is that? We saw more 198s in 2014 than in 2013, and way more 197s, and the general perception is that scores skyrocketed this season and showed a clear departure even over the high scores of the previous season. What’s the deal? Well, the deal becomes somewhat more clear if we break down the top 36 into manageable chunks. Here are the average scores for only the top 12 teams from 1999-2014:
Compare this to the average scores for the teams ranked 13-36 over the same years.
We see something closer to the expected, anecdotal increase when it comes to the top 12 teams. For those teams, 2014 marked the highest-scoring year ever, with an increase of another .153 over last season, while for the teams ranked 13-36, the scoring was remarkably consistent with last season, an increase of just .013 (or basically nothing). So, the scores this season did increase, but they did not increase consistently across the NCAA. They increased specifically for the very best teams while the rest remained the same.
It’s interesting to compare 2014 with 2004, the year notorious for crazy scoring and everyone getting a 12 on every event at every meet, because in 2004, the scores were crazy high and crazy high for everyone. As we see from the last graph, that year had unprecedented scoring for the lower-ranked teams as well as the higher-ranked teams, but the increase was most significant for the lower-ranked teams. In 2014, the scores for the lower-ranked teams stayed constant (and much lower than that 2004 level), while the scores for the top teams bested that 2004 level and continued their ascent.
We all know that the Parity Parrots like to pat themselves on the back for their work to increase parity in NCAA, but there are different types of parity. This year, we certainly saw evidence of parity at the very top of the sport manifested in our most competitive Super Six, but beyond that, the gap between the very best teams and everyone else actually increased in 2014 rather than decreased. The “others” were farther away from being able to challenge the best teams this season than in 2013.
Is it talent? Are the top few teams just taking all the best gymnasts and best coaches and extending a lead over the rest? Is it reputation scoring? Are they getting a boost that the other teams aren’t based on name? Different people will argue different reasons, but it’s interesting to break down this information to know where the scores are going and who is getting them. And that’s not to say this 2014 phenomenon will necessarily continue next season, but it’s something to keep an eye on and helps provide evidence to either support or undermine some of the assumptions we had about the scoring during the 2014 season.
I think everyone had a sense that the scores ballooned in 2014, mostly because of all the 10s we saw—so many more than in 2013—but we had that sense because we pay the most attention to the top-ranked teams. For them, the scores did continue to increase at a noticeable rate with more 10s, more rotation scores in the 49.6+ range, and more 198s, but across the country and down the rankings, that was not the case.
Also, in non-numerical news, Silvia Colussi-Pelaez is transferring from Florida to Oregon State for the upcoming season, which is exciting news for the Beavs. They’ve had a rough couple years, and she could contribute on as many as four events for them with some 9.8s. Conversely, she wasn’t making any lineups at Florida, and given the quality of the incoming classes, didn’t look to be making many lineups in the future. Also, as it has been discussed that Alex McMurtry is planning to come early, something was going to have to give in the scholarship-count department. Silvia’s sister, Mariana, will also be joining Oregon State the following season. Now Tanya, put that transverse aerial back in her beam routine. You know you want to.
Our Level 10s and future NCAA 9.875ers have concluded competition at their national championships, so it’s time to examine at who they are, what they’ve done, and where they’re going. If you’re not a JO follower (translation: if you’re not a parent of a JO gymnast, basically), the competition is broken down into 8 divisions (Junior A-D, Senior A-D) divided by age. For our NCAA purposes, the junior divisions aren’t immediately relevant because, even though some of them have already done fetus-verbals to college programs, they’re still a long way off and a lot can change.
Full results can be found here, (and associated college verbals and signings can, as always, be found at collegegymfans) but I’m paying attention to only the senior divisions right now with particular emphasis on Senior C and Senior D, the gymnasts we will see entering NCAA programs in just a couple months. Here’s what happened:
SENIOR D
Top 10 AA 1. Taylor Harrison – Ohio State 2014-2015 38.475 (VT – 2nd, UB – 2nd, BB – 2nd, FX – 10th) Ohio State has been stuck in the 195s for a few seasons now, and with Shaffer, Miller, Aepli, and DeLuca all leaving, they are desperate for this kind of winning-senior-D-level gymnastics to remain somewhere in the vicinity of the top teams. They are in dire need of AAers, so seeing an incoming gymnast win with 9.6s and 9.7s in Level 10 in encouraging.
2. Danielle Breen – Nebraska 2014-2015 38.400 (VT – 3rd, UB – 4th, BB – 5th, FX – 5th) Nebraska is one of the big winners at JO Nationals this year, with several new recruits emerging or confirming their statuses as potential impact gymnasts. Breen is less well-known, but finishing in the top 5 on every event helps. Don’t expect a post-Wong, post-Super Six slump for Nebraska in 2015. This is a goo-ood class that should continue bolstering the team’s depth.
3. Kaitlynn Hedelund – North Carolina 2014-2015 38.200 (VT – 12th, UB – 10th, BB – 7th, FX – 10th) This is Hedelund’s second straight year placing in the top 3 in her division, cracking the top 10 on beam both times. UNC also has Lindsey Lemke, a Geddert’s girl who placed well in the past, coming in next season, so at least there is some prior success coming in this year for a team that has been off the radar lately. Let’s see if it translates.
4. Maddy Stover – Utah 2014-2015 38.175 (VT – 18th, UB – 16th, BB – 1st, FX – 15th) AND 5. Tiffani Lewis – Utah 2014-2015 38.125 (VT – 7th, UB – 10th, BB – 7th, FX – 20th)
Nebraska wasn’t the only team that had a good weekend. Utah should be toasting these results, with their incoming class recording solid AA placements. Look at those beam rankings. Utah still needs serious restocking on beam after consecutive years of the cracks emerging at the worst time, and they have the opportunity to wholly refresh that lineup for 2015. The interesting thing about Utah next year is that they’re losing four major contributors, but they’re not losing AAers (Damianova – 3 events, Lofgren – 2 events, Del Priore – 1 event, Hansen – 1 event), so the effect may not be felt as deeply as one would think.
6. Zoey Schaefer – Washington 2014-2015 38.100 (VT – 29th, UB – 2nd, BB – 15th, FX – 1st)
7. Jordyn Penny – Ball State 2014-2015 38.000 (VT – 18th, UB – 4th, BB – 18th, FX – 12th)
8. Sydney Waltz – Kentucky 2014-2015 37.950 (VT – 18th, UB – 10th, BB – 14th, FX – 20th)
9. Kamerin Moore – Nebraska 2014-2015 37.875 (VT – 7th, UB – 1st, BB – 32nd, FX – 3rd) Another of the much-anticipated Nebraska gymnasts, but she’s more well known because of her tenure as a junior elite and status as a Geddert’s gymnast. Moore would have placed right at the top with a hit beam routine, and it’s reasonable to expect big things from her.
10. Alexis Mattern – Ohio State 2014-2015 37.850 (VT – 4th, UB – 37th, BB – 7th, FX – 20th)
Notables Myia Hambrick – LSU 2014-2015 VT – 7th, UB – 10th, BB – 2nd I expected a higher placement from Hambrick, but a floor error took her out of the top AA rankings. However, she is very strong on floor (she’s an LSU gymnast after all) and always seems to do well on beam – 2 years in a row placing 2nd there at nationals, which is the far more important quality for the Tigers right now.
Taylor Allex – errrr, Utah 2012-2013? (Is she planning to go to another program?) VT – 1st, FX – 5th
Lauren Li – Penn State 2014-2015 VT – 7th, FX – 2nd
Lia Breeden – New Hampshire 2014-2015 BB – 5th, FX – 3rd
Lianne Josbacher – Boise State 2014-2015 BB – 10th
Anya Olson – Brown 2014-2015 UB – 10th
Also, JaNay Honest competed in this session. I mention that just because at last word, she was set to walk on at UCLA, and she scored a solid 9.625 on vault for her yfull. Given the scoring gap UCLA has seen on vault lately (and losing Courtney doesn’t help), they’re in the market for vaulters.
SENIOR C
Top 10 AA 1. Grace Williams – Nebraska 2014-2015 38.725 (VT – 7th, UB – 1st, BB – 3rd, FX – 2nd) More from Nebraska? Given her years of strong placements in JO, Williams has a chance to be the best of the bunch for Nebraska’s incoming team. Note that Williams and Moore both won their division on bars, and that may be where the Huskers need the most infusion of scoring next year. They don’t have the Wongs and Giblins anymore.
2. Erin Macadaeg – LSU 2014-2015 38.700 (VT – 4th, UB – 17th, BB – 1st, FX – 1st) We met Macadaeg and her clean gymnastics at P&G Championships last year, and it’s serving her well in JO. As mentioned with Hambrick, that beam placement is her most important virtue, especially considering how hard it will be for even excellent gymnasts to make those vault and floor lineups next year.
3. Kari Lee – Utah 2014-2015 38.475 (VT – 1st, UB – 2nd, BB – 5th, FX – 15th) For a while we though Lee was going to Arizona, but she switched to Utah, which is a big get for the Utes. She has shown an important mixture of security and power on most of the events boasts an impressive yfull on vault. That vault lineup is going to be a thing. 4. Paige Zaziski – Arkansas 2014-2015 38.375 (VT – 1st, UB – 4th, BB – 10th, FX – 4th) Arkansas will have to find a way to muddle through without Katherine Grable (as if anyone ever could), so I like those high vault and floor placements from Zaziski.
5. Joslyn Goings – Washington 2014-2015 38.200 (VT – 12th, UB – 13th, BB – 4th, FX – 17th) Love to see two Washington gymnasts in the top 10 here. That team was so disappointingly depleted this season.
6. Ericha Fassbender – Florida 2014-2015 38.150 (VT – 4th, UB – 10th, BB – 16th, FX – 4th) The hits just keep coming for Florida. She’s obviously a strong gymnast, but I do wonder where she fits in. It’s a similar wonder I had when Kiersten Wang joined the team, and to some extent Spice, Boyce, and SCP as well. Excellent gymnast, but does she make lineups? Kennedy Baker seems the most likely to fill some of those Macko/Alaina spots, and perhaps Grace McLaughlin in places as well. After that, it’s going to be a clawing fight of 9.850s to make the 6 on those events. 7. Brianna Brown – Michigan 2014-2015 38.050 (VT – 23rd, UB – 4th, BB – 10th, FX – 9th) Michigan is losing almost a whole team worth of scores from 2014, so it’s hard to be too optimistic about the outlook for next year. Brown is going to be a major factor in restocking that team and will need to contribute all the routines all the time always. 8. Abigail Epperson – Maryland 2014-2015 38.000 (VT – 8th, UB – 4th, BB – 24th, FX – 4th)
8. Emily Liddle – Washington 2014-2015 38.000 (VT – 23rd, UB – 13th, BB – 6th, FX – 15th)
10. Jillian Winstanley – George Washington 2014-2015 37.900 (VT – 10th, UB – 24th, BB – 6th, FX – 31st)
Notables Mackenzie Brannan – Alabama 2014-2015 VT – 1st, UB – 4th, FX – 2nd For the second year in a row at JO Nationals, she wins the “would have won if not for a beam fall” award and should be one of the major freshmen in the country next year in spite of not making the top 10 here. She’s a likely contender for at least three events for Alabama in making up for the flurry of routines they must replace (11 of 24), especially some of those late Jacob/Milliner power event spots.
Rachel Stypinski – Kent State 2014-2015 UB – 4th, FX – 4th
Lauren Marinez – Michigan 2014-2015 BB – 2nd (Placing 2nd on beam! You’re the anchor immediately.)
2. Lizzie LeDuc – LSU 2015-2016 38.325 (VT – 7th, UB – 10th, BB – 7th, FX – 3rd)
3. Kirah Koshinski – West Virginia 2015-2016 38.225 (VT – 4th, UB – 23rd, BB – 3rd, FX – 7th)
3. Haylee Roe – Illinois 2015-2016 38.225 (VT – 7th, UB – 7th, BB – 12th, FX – 5th)
5. Abigail Ambrecht – Alabama 2015-2016 38.200 (VT – 4th, UB – 12th, BB – 15th, FX – 9th)
6. Shannon McNatt – Utah 2015-2016 38.125 (VT – 14th, UB – 21st, BB – 15th, FX – 1st)
7. Phoebe Pummarachai – UC Davis 2014-2015 38.050 (VT – 7th, UB – 19th, BB – 3rd, FX – 13th)
8. Alex McMurtry – Florida 2015-2016 (2014-2015) 38.025 (VT – 1st, UB – 44th, BB – 6th, FX – 7th)
9. Rachel Cutler – Minnesota 2015-2016 37.875 (VT – 28th, UB – 7th, BB – 18th, FX – 10th)
10. Brooke Kelly 37.850 (VT – 7th, UB – 1st, BB – 7th, FX – 39th)
We have another year before most of these gymnasts appear in NCAA so there’s plenty of time to address them, but Alicia Boren is becoming a JO queen. She wins every year. Florida is the big standout in this group with Boren and McMurtry (who isn’t so much with the bars but has been excellent on the other three events throughout her JO career), and if Florida is cornering the market on the top JOs now too . . .
Notables Sabrina Garcia – Penn State 2015-2016 VT – 7th, UB – 2nd
Mackenzie Anderson – Arkansas 2015-2016 UB – 5th, FX – 10th
2. Sydney Snead – Georgia 2015-2016 38.225 (VT – 2nd, UB – 4th, BB – 10th, FX – 6th)
3. Lacy Dagen – Florida 2015-2016 38.150 (VT – 4th, UB – 18th, BB – 1st, FX – 13th)
4. Kasey Janowicz 38.100 (VT – 9th, UB – 7th, BB – 15th, FX – 2nd)
5. Mackenzie Austin – North Carolina 2015-2016 37.800 (VT – 21st, UB – 9th, BB – 8th, FX – 13th)
5. Shani Remme 37.800 (VT – 26th, UB – 12th, BB – 7th, FX – 6th)
7. Makenna Merrell – Utah 2015-2016 37.775 (VT – 23rd, UB – 4th, BB – 4th, FX – 21st)
8. Brittany West – Pitt 2015-2016 37.725 (VT – 30th, UB – 20th, BB – 5th, FX – 6th)
9. Brittini Chappell – Arizona State 2015-2016 37.675 (VT – 21st, UB – 12th, BB – 15th, FX – 13th)
10. Meaghan Sievers 37.650 (VT – 5th, UB – 12th, BB – 34th, FX – 10th)
Several of the Senior A gymnasts haven’t made verbals yet, which is surprisingly nice to see. We do have a few top finishers here going to the usual suspect schools, and a few people who excelled on a couple events, like Lehrmann for Oklahoma who has done junior elite, and Kelley for LSU who we’ll obviously hear much about in the coming years. She didn’t have a great competition overall but still won floor.
Another week, another batch of developments. I’ll keep these weekly updates going in the off-season as long as there are things to say. Otherwise, I’ll start delving into numbers. Comparing 2014 NCAA scoring to previous years seems like it will need to happen at some point.
First and foremost, it was confirmed today that Rene Lyst will be packing up her meet wardrobe and marching those heels over to Arizona State to take over as head coach following John Spini’s retirement. Rene at Arizona State–it makes sense. It seemed like only a matter of time before she extracted herself from that “awkward alert!” co-coaching situation with Mark at Arkansas, but it will be fascinating to see how things play out for her as an independent head coach for the first time. Arkansas has been a very successful team since its inception, but Mark Cook often receives the majority of the credit for that. This is a chance for Rene to establish her own coaching identity in a program that has been screaming for a major shakeup for years. They need to start working beam with the same attitude that Rene uses to shop for clothes, if that makes any sense.
Last week, ESPNU profiled the Alabama/Georgia gymnastics rivalry in “Sarah & Suzanne: Into Darkness.”
For those unfamiliar with the history of that time Sarah was pissed that Georgia used the wrong bars, it was a helpful, basic overview of the evolutions of the Alabama and Georgia programs into actual things with actual fans, unearthing the eyeroll-inducing “sweet” Sarah vs. “nasty” Suzanne narrative from back in the day. Maybe that’s why I’ve always liked Suzanne so much. Even during the interviews in this . . . (are we calling it a documentary? That seems like a stretch . . . featurette?) she still looks like she’s holding a shiv just out of shot. I respect that.
It didn’t tell us anything new or juicy (it was never going to), but it was a perfectly reasonable commercial for the programs and the borderline-terrifying grand dames that built them. Plus, we got to see Kupets again and also how amazing Ashley Miles looks. You know Ashley Miles just wanted to be part of this so that she could be like, “Check this out. Am I a model? Probably.” Also, could all those the goobers from the Athens Bee and the Tuscaloosa Aw, Shucks Times or whatever have been any bigger stereotypes of themselves? It was awesome.
But really, the clothes. The primary motif and thematic journey of “Sarah and Suzanne” concerns the leotard and fashion choices. Who told any of you that any of this was a good idea? You might try to explain it away by saying that it was a different era, but no. This wasn’t just some Kerri Strugg’s mom (a.k.a. the state bird of the year 1996) action. No one EVER wore clothes like this.
Tone it down, Betty Crocker.
There were all kinds of strange moments in “Sarah & Suzanne,” like when we were treated to a discussion of the perils of Georgia’s difficulty while seeing them fall on a layout stepout on beam and a giant on bars. THE DIFFICULTY! Or how much Georgia footage there was of Shayla Worley, Sarah Persinger, and Noel Couch, none of whom ever competed under Suzanne. But for a full guided tour through the trauma, check out Spanny Tampson’s breakdown. I mean that in the sense that she broke down the action from the featurette, not like she had a mental breakdown while watching this thing. But you never know. Al Trautwig did make an appearance, and it’s always hard to keep going emotionally after that. The biggest problem with Al is that in the last 20 years, he has never gotten past the fact that gymnastics is hard. Yeah, it’s hard. Now let’s progress from there.
Back in modern times, we have a few more commitment developments. Lizzy LeDuc, of she-was-going-to-be-a-thing-for-a-while-when-she-was-little fame, is heading to LSU for 2015-2016. That class, you guys. We still don’t know what Lexie Priessman’s deferring plans are (hint: don’t), but for the 2016 season, LSU could be bringing in Priessman, LeDuc, and McKenna Kelley at the same time. They’ll need an amazing class that year because they’ll have just lost Courville, Hall, and Jordan, but being able to constantly restock talent like that is the sign of a program that’s here to stay at the top.
Level 10 Nationals are happening this coming weekend, so keep an eye on those results. It’s a cutthroat qualification process to Nationals in the good regions (one beamtastrophe at Regionals and you’re out), so we won’t see everybody who will make a big splash on their teams next year, but it will give us a fairly solid sense of where our new NCAA gymnasts stand and where they can contribute. Check out the results from Senior C and Senior D last year, and it’s basically a who’s who of the impact freshmen from the 2014 season. So, we have that to look forward to, along with European Championships getting underway in a little over a week. The Russia is broken, so that could actually be a close race.
