Are you ready for meets? In two days, you’ll need to be all about it because there are a bunch. Tomorrow, I’ll do the rundown of the weekend to get prepared, but for now, I’ve been thinking about the first meet of the season and how much it can tell us about what will happen at the end of the season. Rare is the team that ends up using the score from the first meet for RQS, but I was curious about lineups. We sometimes see lineups at the beginning of the season that seem awfully weaker than what we would hope to see in April, but how much change is there really? And are some teams more likely to change around the lineups than others?
I took the current top 10 teams, and over the last five years, compared the lineups from the first meet to the lineups from the last meet to see what proportion of routines from that first meet were still in the lineup at the end of the season. Here we go. (Championship seasons in bold.)
I added the ranking positions to the list because rankings make things more exciting, but there’s not necessarily a good or a bad to this list, a winner or a loser. It’s just what is. In fact, the teams that have won championships in this span are all on the lower half with less lineup retention, so is that the better end? Of course, a lot depends on whether lineups have changed because people returned from injury or because people were lost to injury.
-I supposed I expected there to be more turnover. Most teams end up retaining between 4 and 5 of the 6 competitors on each event from the first meet to the last meet, and a large number of those changes are made as a result of injury. There proportion of people working their way into the lineup and bumping someone else healthy out of the lineup during the season is low. These things tend to happen in preseason.
-The teams at the extremes of the list aren’t particularly surprising. Nebraska has tended to be a smaller team during this span, relying on those key AAers who go every week, so there’s little change. Stanford has altered lineups the most of any team over the last two years, and it’s not close. Last year, only 2 of Stanford’s 6 floor workers from the first meet ended up competing at Nationals, which is the only case of that occurring in the sample. For all other teams in all other lineups and events, at least 3 of the 6 made it to the end of the year. Stanford on floor has by far the most lineup alteration of any team on any event, retaining 62% of floor routines in the span.
-Even though UCLA is toward the bottom of the list, I expected the number to be lower. The Bruins certainly have a reputation for changing lineups around a lot, but that tends to happen more in the middle of the season at away meets against weaker opponents. The first meet usually features a fair proportion of the A team that will also appear at the end. Similarly, I don’t necessarily think of Oklahoma’s lineups as being so unlikely to change, but aside from that injury-plagued 2012 campaign, the Sooners have been among the most likely to retain the same lineups they started with.
-Two teams shot the moon, Nebraska and LSU, both in 2009, by putting forth identical competitors in the first meet and the final meet. Since Nebraska didn’t make Nationals at home in 2009, maybe we can conclude that change is a good thing. Utah almost got there, with 23 out of 24 routines staying the same in 2012.
-Some of the most change also comes from 2009, with UCLA and Alabama just retaining a touch over half the routines, but Stanford over the last two years is the standout winner for being unrecognizable by the end of the year.
-I’m ready for the season to get going. Give me meets.
It’s here! It’s here a little bit! Three whole meets were conducted today, and in conclusion, we should have just waited until next weekend. Let’s call this a false start. Don’t fret, it’s only five more days until the season really starts. Here’s a quick rundown of what happened today.
Stanford 194.825 – Cal 194.650 – Sacramento State 194.400 – UC Davis 193.450 – San Jose State 193.325 For a while it looked like Cal was going to win, which would have been an important symbolic moment for the team, then for a second it looked like Sacramento State was going to win (could have done it with a 48.775 on floor), but Stanford pulled it out in the end while being very Stanford in January throughout.
Stanford is not a team that comes out blazing. Strong performances in the first meet have happened from time to time, but 194s have happened more. We did see a bunch of routines from freshmen, 9 of 24 including 4 of 6 on vault, which is crucial. These freshmen will need to do a lot of scoring work, especially while Hong is not around. None of them had strong first showings, but the potential is still encouraging. It’s going to be more of a March thing. Nicolette McNair’s 9.850 was the one highish score from the newbies, and it was bested only by Kristina Vaculik’s 9.875 on bars, the top score of the meet. So at least some things in the world make sense. Stanford dropped a fall on bars from Rice and on beam from N McNair but had to count one from the floor lineup, which featured a number of people I don’t expect to see competing later on. It’s like a practice. Stanford’s next meet is at home against Georgia next Sunday, and we can assume that winning with a 194 will not be a thing then.
Cal hit a little bit, but it was an extremely 9.725 meet. That’s OK (two years ago they would have been over the moon about that score), but we’re going to start having higher expectations for this team. There is 9.800 talent throughout these lineups. Alicia Asturias was the standout performer because obviously. Her 9.850s on beam and floor led the team. She also took the AA title. Jessica Howe came in on beam and floor for 9.7s, and Charlie Owens did the same in the AA. Both will have to be major contributors this season.
[15] Penn State 193.925 – Iowa State 193.550 So, this was a meet of 193s. It’s the first meet of the season, and we always see 193s in the opening weeks, but Penn State is over-ranked in the coaches poll at #15. PSU finished last season at #15, and after losing Musser and Merriam, there is no reason to expect the same quality this year. Regression is quite likely, and we already saw the lack of big savior routines in this meet. That a 193 was recorded without counting a fall is troubling. It wasn’t like they were going to score higher but for an unfortunate January-type falling moment. Randi Lau was the only one to break 9.8 with a 9.825 on vault, and that routine will be vital this year. She made the vault lineup for LSU, so she’ll be the star vaulter for Penn State.
Central Michigan 194.450 – Wisconsin-Eau Claire 180.200 This was also a meet. Of significance, Halle Moraw’s 9.875 on floor tied for the highest score recorded this weekend was the top floor mark for any team. Temporarily #1 in the country!
What have you done for me lately? In April, Florida finally, finally broke through, climbing back from consecutive beam falls in Super Six to become the fifth team to win a national title with all the tears and confetti and celebrations that come with it, but that was eight months ago. The glory of 2013 is the past, the stuff of banners and trophy cases. Now, it’s a new season, and the Gators are in the exact same position as every other team, a heap of potential trying to live up to its capabilities, starting at zero.
The 2013 team was the most talented group of gymnasts Florida has ever put together at one time, and one of the biggest challenges Florida faces in 2014 is that the statement is still true. The 2013 Gators remain Florida’s best, and the 2014 Gators will certainly and deeply feel the absences of Marissa King, Ashanee Dickerson, and Randy Stageberg in their lineups. The gymnastics will not be as big this year as last year, and there are places where we can expect a loss in scoring potential (places named vault and floor). However, as we learned at Super Six, Florida was a fall better than any other team in the country last season, so this team can afford to lose some big scores and still remain the atop the rankings and still be better than the rest of the teams. The margin does appear to be tighter than it was last year, though, which should make for a true postseason battle that doesn’t need a fall in order to get exciting.
In making up for those lost routines, Florida will be getting some important routines back from returning gymnasts, with Alaina Johnson and Bridgey Caquatto both available in the all-around this year. The freshmen Silvia Colussi-Pelaez and Claire Boyce should also aid in this endeavor, and we can expect them to appear in a couple competition lineups and provide acceptable backup routines on every event. Let the event exploration begin.
Vault:
Of primary importance, we are all poorer for not having Marissa King’s Tsuk 1.5 with us anymore. Civilization continues to crumble, and everything is just the worst. As a result, Florida’s vault rotation will be 64% more drab this year, but on the bright side of life, the fact that King’s vault was often woefully undervalued means that the Gators are not in as much of a hole scoring-wise as we might expect for a team losing such an excellent piece of gymnastics. Can they find a new 9.875-9.900 to slot in? Probably, or at least something close in the 9.850-9.875 area. It won’t be nearly as impressive as King’s vault, but the net scoring loss should be smallish, even if the net emotional loss is incalculable. Have I mentioned that I liked that vault? Of the people who are still around, Kytra Hunter. The end. The only question about her Y1.5 is whether she’ll get a 10 this season. Bridget Sloan will be similarly fantastic for regular 9.9s, and Alaina Johnson should be a third high-scoring stalwart, much as she was immediately last year after coming back from a fairly long injury layoff. Those three vaults are enough to be getting on with, but to be near the top spot in the country on this event, Florida will need a couple more high-scoring vaults in the 9.875+ territory in the first half of the lineup. Mackenzie Caquatto is the likeliest story as a fourth vaulter, even if the team is conservative with her numbers again this year and keeps her out of the lineup full time until later in the season. Her distance and amplitude are superior to the rest of the options, so she needs to be there.
Elsewhere on the team, Colussi-Pelaez, Boyce, Rachel Spicer, Bridgey Caquatto, and Kiersten Wang can all vault for at least a 9.800 if called upon. My choices for the remaining spots would be B Caquatto and Wang as I think they have the most potential, but it’s a close race. Wang reinjured her groin over Christmas, so if she is not able to come back, all of the other realistic contenders should have a shot at that final spot. Without the big vaults from King and Dickerson, we may not see those 49.6 days from Florida on this event this year, but regular 49.4s should still be a comfortable, common score once the lineup is together.
Bars:
Once again, the Gators make their best case for the title on bars. Bars also happens to be the event where they are losing the least since Stageberg didn’t do bars and Ashanee had already been bumped from the lineup by the end of last season. Nearly everyone is returning, and no team is going to be able to match the scoring from M Caquatto, Sloan, and Johnson. Oklahoma will probably come closest, but expect Florida to be the #1 bars team for the majority of the season. For each of the big three at the back of this lineup, 9.900 is a regular, fine score. It’s a yawn. They can, and expect to, do better than that every time and receive 9.950s for sticks.
In the front half of the lineup, Florida has a whole mess of options. Nine members on this team do bars, and all nine could conceivably come in for a 9.850 at some point. Kytra Hunter stepped up her bars game to a massive degree last year with a sack of 9.900s and should be here again every week doing the same. That she’s still only the fourth-best bars worker on this team tells you everything you need to know about the situation on this event. Hunter won’t be far behind the scores the top three are recording, and while there could be some competition for the remaining spots, Bianca Dancose-Giambattisto and Bridgey Caquatto seem most likely. BDG has the precision to get 9.9s, and B Caquatto’s release amplitude and difficulty puts her a step above. Boyce and Our Lady of Perpetual Stalders, Colussi-Pelaez, are both legitimate contenders, though may be just a tad behind in the DLO department.
Last year, I predicted that Florida would get a 49.7 on bars at home at some point during the season. They peaked at 49.675 like losers, but I’m doubling down on my prediction and going for the same thing this season. A home 49.7 on bars will occur in 2014, and 49.5s will occur a lot.
Beam:
If there was a trouble apparatus for the Gators last year, it was beam. Beyond the Super Six issue, they had falls here and there throughout the season, many more than in 2012. Still, they were one of the top teams on beam last year anyway and have a good case to remain one this year, especially with the 9.9ish likes of Mackenzie Caquatto and Bridget Sloan leading the scoring parade.
I’ll be interested to see if Sloan remains in the second position this year on beam and floor. It was a savvy decision by Florida to put her in the second spot last season because it forced the judges to go very high very early in the rotation, which is always good news for a team’s scoring. In her case, there was little risk of an early-lineup underscore because she’s The Bridget Sloan. You don’t underscore royalty. Sloan won the national AA title from the front half of the lineup, which is remarkable. No one else could have done that. Florida also had the luxury of making this choice because there were plenty of other 9.9s that could still go at the end of the lineups. Will they feel comfortable enough with their other 9.9s to do the same thing this year?
Hunter will be back, and while this has always been Alaina Johnson’s question mark event, I would also classify her as one of the top six beamers on this team who should be in the lineup. That’s a solid four, but in a bit of a trend, there will be competition for the final two spots. Spicer has been a regular toward the beginning of the lineup during her Florida career, but she’s not necessarily a given to return. Colussi-Pelaez of transverse aerial fame (though it’s doubtful we’ll see it during the season unless she goes last and throws it after five others have hit) and Bridgey Caquatto seem poised to step into the remaining spots with beautiful beam work. Rhonda doesn’t like to alter the beam lineup much unless forced to, so we may not see much from backups this year, but BDG is pretty on this event and Claire Boyce looks like a competent fill-in if necessary.
Floor:
As was correctly pointed out in the comments of the Oklahoma preview, the Florida floor lineup is going to have a somewhat different identity this year without the big passes from King and Dickerson. I don’t think we’ll see a major regression in quality, but fewer 9.9s seems inevitable. There will be several contending teams getting 49.5s on this event, and Florida cannot afford to give up too much ground to them. The bars advantage should provide some cushion, but it will not be enough to overcome a sluggish floor. I don’t think this will be a sluggish floor, but how well they replace the King and Dickerson routines is something to keep an eye on.
Hunter’s tumbling will certainly get her into the 9.950 family again this season, and she should contend for the floor title. She’s not a choreography queen, so I appreciate that the coaches have given her a unique middle pass because it lends a level of creativity the routine would lack otherwise. I also quite enjoy what Sloan is doing this year, and one of the best qualities to her routine is that she makes the “boring E” pass, the front double full, not boring. It’s too well executed to be boring.
Alaina Johnson will finally get a chance to perform her floor from last season, and Bridgey Caquatto looks primed to return as well. She was quite successful once she came into the floor lineup last year, though her 9.925-9.950s in the anchor position in the postseason reflect score building as much as anything that happened on the floor. Colussi-Pelaez seems a fair bet for the front of the lineup, and there are a couple routines in the maybe pile from Boyce and Spicer, or Wang if she is able to return into floor shape. Ideally, we’d see Mackenzie Caquatto here, who would be a standout scorer if she competed, but they have kept her off floor lately to preserve those porcelain ankles and keep her healthy for the other events. We’ll see if there’s a need to risk it this year, perhaps if the depth situation becomes a concern.
Outlook: From the moment the 2012 season concluded, the Gators have been the favorite in NCAA gymnastics. The rankings may fluctuate, but reality hasn’t. They were the favorite all through the 2013 preseason, 2013 season, and 2014 preseason, and it remains true. The strength of Sloan, Hunter, Johnson, and the Caquattuses cannot be matched by any other team, and there are enough standout supporting routines to keep the lineups deep and healthy. At the moment, Florida has the most believable route to a title and is returning the most 9.9s of any other team. To follow that believable route, a big advantage on bars will key, as is having Hunter’s and Sloan’s scores keep the team on pace with the best schools in the country on vault and floor. If that happens, Florida appears in good shape to repeat. They just need to stay healthy. There are some long medical histories among the stars on this team.
Phew. And there we have it for the previews. I hope they have been enjoyable and informative. The season is now officially allowed to begin.
I also want to make a quick mention of how useful the charts section of Road to Nationals has been in putting these previews together. It has been an invaluable source for fact-checking my impressions of past scores and trends.
Don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten about Florida. A preview is forthcoming.
But what’s also forthcoming is the beginning of the season (kind of) (not really). The NCAA season technically begins this weekend, but there’s only about an eighth of a meet happening with minimal coverage, so it doesn’t really count. This is largely irritating because of impatience reasons, but at the same time it does provide a nice, calm, relaxing opening to the season during which we can all become acclimated to the new, friendless, 9.825-filled lives we will be living for the next four months without the pressure of 11 meets happening at the same time. Here’s the super full schedule:
Saturday – 1/4/14 5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Ball State @ Illinois State
Sunday – 1/5/14 1:00 ET/10:00 PT – UW-Eau Claire @ Central Michigan 3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [15] Penn State @ Iowa State 5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Norcal Quint Meet: [9] Stanford, [22] Cal, San Jose St., Sacramento State, UC Davis
Under other circumstances, I wouldn’t watch Ball State against Illinois State, but let’s be honest, I’m probably going to. It’s kind of like how US Classic is always the most anticipated meet of the elite season. It’s pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme, but we’ve gone without meets for so long that we devour it like it’s Worlds. I’ll be around following the scores for the Sunday meets, but I probably won’t start the season’s live blogging action until next weekend because there’s not really enough to say yet.
We’re getting so close now, but if the season is sneaking up on you suddenly and you feel you might not be ready, here’s a quick checklist so you’re sure you’ve taken care of everything before it begins for realsies. Checklist: 1) Watch Super Six from last year. Remember where we left off and what gymnastics is.
2) Make sure your subscriptions are in order. Unfortunately, watching meets nowadays requires money, money, money (or at least a cable plan including the Pac-12 Net, which costs money, money, money). Be aware of what you’re getting into now. Enjoying NCAA gymnastics is not a free experience. If you’re able, you’ll want to subscribe to CBS Sports All-Access on a monthly basis. The subscription is $17.95 per month ($3 more than last year because . . . squint) and will provide access to home meets for teams like Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Auburn, Minnesota, and a number of other randoms. Note that Alabama’s meets are currently listed as subscription-only, not free as they have been in the past. I find it’s worth it to subscribe for January, February, and March, but be sure to unsubscribe right at the end of the regular season so you’re not charged for months you’re not using.
Many, many of the Pac-12 meets are live on TV this year, which is amazing for those of us who have the network but not so much for those who don’t. If you don’t have the Pac-12 Network as part of a cable plan, I’m afraid you’re out of luck for those meets, which include nearly the entire UCLA and Utah home schedules. Don’t worry. I’ll live blog the hell out of them.
Other teams have school-specific subscriptions because they are, technically speaking, buttheads that think we’re made of jewels and servants. But, these can be worth it temporarily in certain cases. Conveniently, all of Florida’s good home meets this year are in the same one-month period, so a well-timed, one-month Florida subscription may be a good idea.
Congratulations on spending all your money watching gymnastics.
Over at the college gym board, loyal reader markey has created a master table including all the major meets and where you can watch them. Yes. College gym fans are the best.
3) Check out the 2014 schedule, at least for the top teams, and mark your calendar accordingly.
4) If you’re playing college fantasy gymnastics, do a little research on your team’s past scoring record on GymInfo so you’re prepared to make lineups. Hopefully, your team is not a collective of bars specialists who feel kind of meh about floor, as mine is. So few of my gymnasts are even going near their floor lineups. It’s already a problem. If you’d like to check out my rag-tag bunch, my team is BalanceBeamSituation, and I’m in the American Athletic Conference.
5) Enjoy a little code refresher, presented by Gymcastic, if you have not already. Uncle Tim put together some shiny graphics to provide all the info you need to know about routine construction on bars, beam, and floor. There’s no discussion of vault because it would just say Yurchenko Full. Goodbye. We get the picture on that one.
6) Remember to have lots of cake around. Sometimes when people get 9.950s for yucky routines, cake makes it all go away.
7) Because you need to, always.
8) Remember when you were in school or the like, and you would be given lists of things to pack for various events or class trips, and the last item to bring was always “a good attitude,” which caused you to set fire to everything around you out of protest?