Which Teams Can Pull Off the Upset at Regionals?

Like vicious bullies who don’t understand that we won’t know what to do with ourselves in a weekend without gymnastics, college gymnastics is taking a week off before regionals on April 2nd in order to do dumb things like rest and heal and train and be students. So overrated.

That does, however, provide plenty of time for previews of each regional competition, so I’ll be breaking those down over the next week or so to make aggressively confident proclamations about what to look for. Helpful in making such prognoses are previous scores and results, so I have compiled a batch a vaguely relevant averages and RQSs, which should provide a clearer look at which teams have the advantage on which events, where teams need to capitalize in order to advance, and which teams are at least in the running for a spot at nationals.

For the host teams, I have included home-meet averages, and for visiting teams, I have included road-meet averages, hopefully to account for any boost a team might receive at a home regional (or eliminate any boost a visiting team might have been receiving during regular-season home meets), even though there are many factors that combine to account for home blah blah blah blah blah.

Each number is followed by the team’s rank within that regional, with a top-two ranking in the regional (i.e., a qualifying spot) highlighted in blue. BECAUSE COLORS. 

IOWA CITY, IOWA

[1] Oklahoma
RQS: 197.920 [1]
Season high: 198.075 [1]
Season average: 197.588 [1]
Road average: 197.538 [1]

VT RQS: 49.415 [1]
VT average: 49.356 [1]
Road VT average: 49.369 [1]

UB RQS: 49.575 [1] 
UB average: 49.467 [1]
Road UB average: 49.428 [1]

BB RQS: 49.445 [1]
BB average: 49.362 [1] 
Road BB average: 49.344 [1]

FX RQS: 49.575 [1] 
FX average: 49.404 [1]
Road FX average: 49.369 [1]

[2] Nebraska
RQS: 196.635 [2]
Season high: 197.350 [2]
Season average: 196.205 [3]
Road average: 195.780 [3]

VT RQS: 49.105 [3]  
VT average: 48.991 [3] 
Road VT average: 48.865 [3]

UB RQS: 49.180 [2] 
UB average: 49.016 [3] 
Road UB average: 48.885 [5] 

BB RQS:49.255 [2]
BB average: 49.068 [3] 
Road BB average: 48.990 [2] 

FX RQS: 49.260 [3] 
FX average: 49.130 [2]
Road FX average: 49.040 [3] 

[3] Arkansas
RQS: 196.575 [3]
Season high: 197.225 [3]
Season average: 196.335 [2]
Road average: 196.118 [2]

VT RQS: 49.160 [2]
VT average: 49.104 [2] 
Road VT average: 49.139 [2] 

UB RQS: 49.165 [3] 
UB average: 49.08 [2] 
Road UB average: 49.004 [2] 

BB RQS: 49.195 [3]
BB average: 49.069 [2] 
Road BB average: 48.971 [3] 

FX RQS: 49.280 [2] 
FX average: 49.079 [4] 
Road FX average: 49.004 [4]

[4] Iowa
RQS: 196.330 [4]
Season high: 196.650 [4]
Season average: 195.456 [4]
Home average: 195.280 [4]

VT RQS: 49.095 [4] 
VT average: 48.933 [4] 
Home VT average: 48.765 [4] 

UB RQS: 49.160 [4] 
UB average: 48.846 [5] 
Home UB average: 48.895 [4]

BB RQS: 49.095 [4] 
BB average: 48.702 [4]
Home BB average: 48.605 [5] 

FX RQS: 49.115 [5] 
FX average: 48.975 [5] 
Home FX average: 49.015 [5] 

[5] Kent State
RQS: 195.595 [5]
Season high: 196.125 [5]
Season average: 195.102 [5]
Road average: 194.629 [6]

VT RQS: 48.675 [6] 
VT average: 48.600 [5] 
Road VT average: 48.508 [6] 

UB RQS: 48.940 [6] 
UB average: 48.73 [6] 
Road UB average: 48.536 [6]  

BB RQS: 48.915 [6] 
BB average: 48.643 [6]
Road BB average: 48.538 [6]

FX RQS: 49.205 [4] 
FX average: 49.123 [3] 
Road FX average: 49.046 [2]

[6] Central Michigan
RQS: 195.440 [6]
Season high: 196.125 [5]
Season average: 194.910 [6]
Road average: 194.982 [5]

VT RQS: 48.795 [5]
VT average: 48.594 [6] 
Road VT average: 48.596 [5] 

UB RQS: 49.045 [5] 
UB average: 48.910 [4]
Road UB average: 48.946 [3] 

BB RQS: 48.945 [5]
BB average: 48.692 [5] 
Road BB average: 48.861 [4] 

FX RQS: 48.995 [6] 
FX average: 48.715 [6] 
Road FX average: 48.579 [6] 

-As expected the #2 rankings are pretty much split between Nebraska and Arkansas, but Arkansas does take nine to Nebraska’s six with Nebraska succeeding in RQS/season-high categories while Arkansas succeeds in season average. This reflects their season trajectories, with Nebraska struggling early but coming on strong toward the end and Arkansas remaining steadier throughout the compaign. It should be quite close between the two, so which do you value more? Are you Team RQS or Team Season Average? Team Peaking or Team Consistency?

-Nebraska has not performed particularly well on the road this year, but most of those road meets came early in the season. The somewhat paltry road averages may be more to do with timing than with location.

-Interestingly, Iowa does not get much of a boost from using home averages instead of road averages since the Hawkeyes were worse at home this year than on the road. Maybe not so much of a host bonus?

-Kent State is ranked higher than Central Michigan, almost entirely because of excellence on floor. Central Michigan is stronger on three events (significantly so when we look only at road meets), so I wouldn’t be surprised if CMU finishes 5th here.

 MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA

[1] Florida
RQS: 197.795 [1]
Season high: 198.175 [1]
Season average: 197.502 [1]
Road average: 197.217 [1]

VT RQS: 49.420 [1] 
VT average: 49.341 [1] 
Road VT average: 49.283 [1] 

UB RQS: 49.500 [1]
UB average: 49.439 [1] 
Road UB average: 49.388 [1] 

BB RQS: 49.430 [1] 
BB average: 49.318 [1]
Road BB average: 49.217 [1] 

FX RQS: 49.505 [1]
FX average: 49.405 [1] 
Road FX average: 49.329 [1] 

[2] Denver
RQS: 196.725 [2]
Season high: 197.525 [2]
Season average: 196.377 [2]
Road average: 196.355 [2]

VT RQS: 49.110 [4] 
VT average: 49.035 [2] 
Road VT average: 48.971 [3]  

UB RQS: 49.270 [2] 
UB average: 49.171 [2]
Road UB average: 49.155 [2] 

BB RQS: 49.115 [3]
BB average: 48.940 [3] 
Road BB average: 49.029 [2] 

FX RQS: 49.360 [2] 
FX average: 49.231 [2] 
Road FX average: 49.200 [2]

[3] Minnesota
RQS: 196.495 [3]
Season high: 197.425 [3]
Season average: 196.090 [3]
Home average: 195.555 [4]

VT RQS: 49.120 [2] 
VT average: 48.975 [4] 
Home VT average: 48.810 [4] 

UB RQS: 49.180 [3] 
UB average: 48.963 [4] 
Home UB average: 48.770 [6] 

BB RQS: 49.185 [2] 
BB average: 49.021 [2] 
Home BB average: 48.955 [3] 

FX RQS: 49.270 [3] 
FX average: 49.131 [3] 
Home FX average: 49.020 [3] 

[4] Missouri
RQS: 196.235 [4]
Season high: 196.650 [4]
Season average: 195.867 [4]
Road average: 195.696 [3]

VT RQS: 49.120 [2] 
VT average: 48.990 [3] 
Road VT average: 49.071 [2] 

UB RQS: 49.120 [4] 
UB average: 48.983 [3]
Road UB average: 48.989 [3] 

BB RQS: 49.070 [4] 
BB average: 48.883 [4] 
Road BB average: 48.810 [4]

FX RQS: 49.180 [4] 
FX average: 49.010 [4] 
Road FX average: 48.839 [5] 

[5] Ohio State
RQS: 195.885 [5]
Season high: 196.350 [5]
Season average: 195.448 [5]
Road average: 195.350 [5]

VT RQS: 48.985 [5]
VT average: 48.889 [5] 
Road VT average: 48.936 [5] 

UB RQS: 49.020 [5] 
UB average: 48.875 [5] 
Road UB average: 48.832 [4] 

BB RQS: 48.955 [5] 
BB average: 48.764 [5] 
Road BB average: 48.729 [5]

FX RQS: 49.075 [5] 
FX average: 48.920 [5] 
Road FX average: 48.854 [4]

[6] BYU
RQS: 195.550 [6]
Season high: 196.100 [6]
Season average: 195.048 [6]
Road average: 194.894 [6]

VT RQS: 48.950 [6] 
VT average: 48.755 [6]
Road VT average: 48.709 [6] 

UB RQS: 48.980 [6]  
UB average: 48.841 [6] 
Road UB average: 48.800 [5] 

BB RQS: 48.870 [6] 
BB average: 48.623 [6]
Road BB average: 48.606 [6] 

FX RQS: 49.065 [6] 
FX average: 48.830 [6] 
Road FX average: 48.784 [6]  

-Minnesota is in the same boat as Iowa in terms of performing much worse at home this year than on the road, so the Gophers get little help from those home averages. But, Minnesota is the #3 team instead of the #4 team here, so it may not take as much of a home nudge to flip things around from the current situation, which has Denver taking the lion’s share of the #2 spots. Actually, it’s a surprisingly dominant statistical showing from Denver, perhaps more of a favorite than it might seem, but Minnesota was adjusted up two seeding places in the allocation so is not as close to Denver as a normal #14 would be. Minnesota has beam, but may also need a little stronger scent of home in this one.

-Then there’s the matter of Missouri, sliding into the #2s on vault and reminding us of 2010.

ATHENS, GEORGIA

[1] LSU
RQS: 197.695 [1]
Season high: 197.925 [1]
Season average: 197.209 [1]
Road average: 197.100 [1]

VT RQS: 49.445 [1] 
VT average: 49.395 [1] 
Road VT average: 49.433 [1] 

UB RQS: 49.370 [1]
UB average: 49.252 [1] 
Road UB average: 49.313 [1] 

BB RQS: 49.355 [1] 
BB average: 49.141 [1] 
Road BB average: 48.988 [1]  

FX RQS: 49.545 [1]
FX average: 49.420 [1] 
Road FX average: 49.367 [2] 

[2] Georgia
RQS: 197.010 [2]
Season high: 197.525 [2]
Season average: 196.462 [2]
Home average: 196.740 [2]

VT RQS: 49.415 [2] 
VT average: 49.283 [2] 
Home VT average: 49.320 [2]  

UB RQS: 49.280 [2] 
UB average: 49.165 [2] 
Home UB average: 49.265 [2] 

BB RQS: 49.180 [4] 
BB average: 48.694 [5] 
Home BB average: 48.680 [4]  

FX RQS: 49.385 [2] 
FX average: 49.315 [2] 
Home FX average: 49.460 [1] 

[3] Oregon State
RQS: 196.575 [3]
Season high: 196.925 [3]
Season average: 196.161 [3]
Road average: 196.250 [3]

VT RQS: 49.025 [3] 
VT average: 48.941 [3] 
Road VT average: 48.992 [3] 

UB RQS: 49.270 [3] 
UB average: 49.114 [3] 
Road UB average: 49.083 [3] 

BB RQS: 49.230 [2] 
BB average: 49.030 [2] 
Road BB average: 48.967 [2] 

FX RQS: 49.185 [4] 
FX average: 49.077 [4]
Road FX average: 49.042 [4] 

[4] Arizona
RQS: 196.155 [4]
Season high: 196.850 [4]
Season average: 195.752 [4]
Road average: 195.333 [5]

VT RQS: 48.945 [5] 
VT average: 48.857 [5] 
Road VT average: 48.758 [6]  

UB RQS: 49.075 [4] 
UB average: 49.014 [4] 
Road UB average: 49.000 [4] 

BB RQS: 49.195 [3]
BB average: 48.866 [4]
Road BB average: 48.638 [5] 

FX RQS: 49.105 [6] 
FX average: 49.016 [6] 
Road FX average: 48.938 [6]  

[5] George Washington
RQS: 195.905 [5]
Season high: 196.600 [5]
Season average: 195.667 [5]
Road average: 195.625 [4] 

VT RQS: 49.000 [4]
VT average: 48.858 [4] 
Road VT average: 48.946 [4] 

UB RQS: 49.020 [5] 
UB average: 48.769 [6] 
Road UB average: 48.750 [6] 

BB RQS: 49.085 [5]
BB average: 48.967 [3] 
Road BB average: 48.954 [3] 

FX RQS: 49.170 [5] 
FX average: 49.073 [5] 
Road FX average: 48.975 [5] 

[6] Michigan State
RQS: 195.385 [6]
Season high: 196.350 [6]
Season average: 194.842 [6]
Road average: 195.106 [6]

VT RQS: 48.805 [6] 
VT average: 48.721 [6] 
Road VT average: 48.769 [6] 

UB RQS: 48.940 [6] 
UB average: 48.775 [5] 
Road UB average: 48.853 [5] 

BB RQS: 48.610 [6] 
BB average: 48.265 [6] 
Road BB average: 48.388 [6] 

FX RQS: 49.225 [3] 
FX average: 49.081 [3] 
Road FX average: 49.097 [3] 

-Well, that couldn’t really be any starker. Oregon State has been improving for the last month and is in this thing, but being at home gives Georgia a clearer edge in many of the categories, perhaps making this regional a little more straightforward than it would be at a neutral venue.

-And then there’s beam. Certainly, Georgia’s ability to hit has improved dramatically over the last month, but even in RQS, when the nasties can be dropped, Oregon State leads. Taking advantage of beam is certainly the opening the Beavs will be looking for. Georgia begins on beam.

TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA

[1] Alabama
RQS: 197.400 [1]
Season high: 197.750 [1]
Season average: 197.042 [1]
Home average: 197.055 [1]

VT RQS: 49.355 [1] 
VT average:49.260 [1]
Home VT average: 49.360 [1]  

UB RQS: 49.405 [1] 
UB average: 49.283 [1] 
Home UB average: 49.310 [1]  

BB RQS: 49.320 [1] 
BB average: 49.142 [1] 
Home BB average: 49.030 [2]  

FX RQS: 49.445 [1] 
FX average: 49.356 [1]
Home FX average: 49.355 [1]

[2] Cal
RQS: 196.770 [2]
Season high: 197.500 [2]
Season average: 196.230 [3]
Road average: 195.989 [3]

VT RQS: 49.185 [2] 
VT average: 49.086 [2]
Road VT average: 49.057 [2]  

UB RQS: 49.150 [3] 
UB average: 48.936 [3] 
Road UB average: 48.811 [4]  

BB RQS: 49.205 [2] 
BB average: 48.975 [3] 
Road BB average: 48.907 [4]  

FX RQS: 49.295 [2] 
FX average: 49.232 [2]
Road FX average: 49.214 [2]  

[3] Boise State
RQS: 196.570 [3]
Season high: 197.325 [3]
Season average: 196.470 [2]
Road average: 196.246 [2] 

VT RQS: 49.080 [3] 
VT average: 49.013 [3] 
Road VT average: 48.996 [4]  

UB RQS: 49.365 [2]
UB average: 49.278 [2] 
Road UB average: 49.175 [2] 

BB RQS: 49.095 [4] 
BB average: 49.008 [2] 
Road BB average: 48.954 [3]  

FX RQS: 49.250 [3] 
FX average: 49.173 [3] 
Road FX average: 49.129 [3] 

[4] Kentucky
RQS: 196.205 [4]
Season high: 196.700 [5]
Season average: 195.765 [4]
Road average: 195.764 [4]

VT RQS: 49.005 [5] 
VT average: 48.900 [5] 
Road VT average: 48.946 [5]   

UB RQS: 49.015 [4] 
UB average: 48.910 [4]
Road UB average: 48.864 [3]  

BB RQS: 49.130 [3] 
BB average: 48.971 [4] 
Road BB average: 49.046 [1] 

FX RQS: 49.125 [5]
FX average: 48.983 [5] 
Road FX average: 48.907 [5] 

[5] West Virginia
RQS: 195.940 [5]
Season high: 196.800 [4]
Season average: 195.604 [5]
Road average: 195.332 [5]

VT RQS: 49.050 [4]
VT average: 49.000 [4] 
Road VT average: 49.029 [3]  

UB RQS: 48.960 [5] 
UB average: 48.827 [5] 
Road UB average: 48.750 [5] 

BB RQS: 48.905 [6] 
BB average: 48.688 [5] 
Road BB average: 48.611 [5]  

FX RQS: 49.235 [4]
FX average: 49.090 [4] 
Road FX average: 48.943 [4]  

[6] Bowling Green
RQS: 195.455 [6]
Season high: 196.500 [6]
Season average: 194.652 [6]
Road average: 194.350 [6]

VT RQS: 48.770 [6] 
VT average: 48.633 [6]
Road VT average: 48.597 [6]  

UB RQS: 48.945 [6] 
UB average: 48.692 [6] 
Road UB average: 48.634 [6] 

BB RQS: 49.000 [5] 
BB average: 48.527 [6] 
Road BB average: 48.397 [6]  

FX RQS: 49.015 [6] 
FX average: 48.800 [6] 
Road FX average: 48.728 [6]  

-Boise State has been creepily consistent this year with the low-mid 196s that account for the advantage in season average, while Cal has had the bigger results. This one looks like it will come down to whether Cal’s edge on vault and floor holds up against Boise State’s bars routines, which are among the best in the country.

-Also, look at Kentucky, whose road beam average earns a first-place ranking, better even than Alabama’s home beam average. That’s something I wouldn’t have expected. Perhaps beam is also Kentucky’s way into this regional. If other teams start messing up…

SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

[1] Utah
RQS: 197.205 [1]
Season high: 197.675 [1]
Season average: 196.970 [1]
Home average: 196.850 [1]

VT RQS: 49.255 [1] 
VT average: 49.200 [1]
Home VT average: 49.150 [1]  

UB RQS: 49.395 [1] 
UB average:49.323 [1]
Home UB average: 49.335 [1]  

BB RQS: 49.290 [2]
BB average: 49.168 [2]
Home BB average: 49.130 [1]  

FX RQS: 49.485 [1] 
FX average: 49.280 [2]
Home FX average: 49.235 [2]  

[2] UCLA
RQS: 197.055 [2]
Season high: 197.475 [2]
Season average: 196.782 [2]
Road average: 196.565 [2]

VT RQS: 49.180 [2] 
VT average: 49.084 [2] 
Road VT average: 49.080 [2] 

UB RQS: 49.235 [2] 
UB average: 49.105 [2] 
Road UB average: 49.110 [2]  

BB RQS: 49.325 [1] 
BB average: 49.184 [1] 
Road BB average: 49.095 [3] 

FX RQS: 49.430 [2]
FX average: 49.405 [1] 
Road FX average: 49.280 [1]  

[3] Washington
RQS: 196.360 [3]
Season high: 196.650 [3]
Season average: 195.504 [5]
Road average: 195.554 [4]

VT RQS: 49.050 [3]
VT average: 48.894 [4] 
Road VT average: 48.875 [4]  

UB RQS: 49.030 [4] 
UB average: 48.788 [5] 
Road UB average: 48.813 [4]  

BB RQS: 49.175 [4]
BB average: 48.848 [4] 
Road BB average: 48.992 [4]  

FX RQS: 49.135 [5] 
FX average: 48.975 [5]
Road FX average: 48.875 [5]  

[4] Southern Utah
RQS: 196.050 [4]
Season high: 196.575 [4]
Season average: 195.645 [3]
Road average: 195.542 [5]

VT RQS: 48.975 [4] 
VT average: 48.914 [3] 
Road VT average: 48.917 [3]  

UB RQS: 49.005 [5] 
UB average: 48.891 [3] 
Road UB average: 49.038 [3]  

BB RQS: 49.015 [5] 
BB average: 48.766 [5]
Road BB average: 48.633 [6]  

FX RQS: 49.245 [3] 
FX average: 49.075 [4] 
Road FX average: 48.954 [4]  

[5] Illinois
RQS: 195.870 [5]
Season high: 196.525 [5]
Season average: 195.569 [4]
Road average: 195.575 [3]

VT RQS: 48.945 [5] 
VT average: 48.742 [5] 
Road VT average: 48.719 [6] 

UB RQS: 48.825 [6] 
UB average: 48.665 [6] 
Road UB average: 48.709 [6]  

BB RQS: 49.250 [3]
BB average: 49.067 [3] 
Road BB average: 49.113 [2]  

FX RQS: 49.210 [4] 
FX average: 49.096 [3] 
Road FX average: 49.056 [3]  

[6] Utah State
RQS: 195.525 [6]
Season high: 196.025 [6]
Season average: 195.096 [6]
Road average: 195.206 [6]

VT RQS: 48.880 [6] 
VT average: 48.704 [6] 
Road VT average: 48.756 [5]  

UB RQS: 49.095 [3] 
UB average: 48.833 [4]
Road UB average: 48.806 [5]  

BB RQS: 48.965 [6] 
BB average: 48.708 [6]
Road BB average: 48.772 [5]  

FX RQS: 49.015 [6] 
FX average: 48.852 [6] 
Road FX average: 48.872 [6]  

-There’s a reason this is considered the most straightforward regional.

-The real fight is between the remaining seeds to see who is the most likely upset candidate should either Utah or UCLA have a meltdown. It’s interesting that Washington is the #3 seed but doesn’t actually rank 3rd in very many categories. Southern Utah and Illinois are both in the top three in six categories, compared to Washington’s three and Utah State’s one. Washington is the most even across the events, while Illinois struggles on bars and Southern Utah struggles on beam. If either of those schools can overcome the struggle event, they could jump ahead of Washington as the most likely spoiler.

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN

[1] Auburn
RQS: 197.150 [1]
Season high: 197.325 [3]
Season average: 196.692 [2]
Road average: 196.639 [2]

VT RQS: 49.250 [2] 
VT average: 49.167 [2] 
Road VT average: 49.175 [2]  

UB RQS: 49.295 [2] 
UB average: 49.215 [2] 
Road UB average: 49.186 [3]  

BB RQS: 49.215 [3] 
BB average: 49.042 [3] 
Road BB average: 49.029 [3] 

FX RQS: 49.445 [2] 
FX average: 49.269 [2] 
Road FX average: 49.250 [2]  

[2] Michigan
RQS: 197.130 [2]
Season high: 197.425 [1]
Season average: 196.919 [1]
Home average: 197.115 [1] 

VT RQS: 49.275 [1] 
VT average: 49.219 [1] 
Home VT average: 49.210 [1]  

UB RQS: 49.300 [1]
UB average: 49.260 [1] 
Home UB average: 49.305 [1]  

BB RQS: 49.275 [1] 
BB average: 49.054 [2] 
Home BB average: 49.215 [1]  

FX RQS: 49.480 [1]
FX average: 49.385 [1] 
Home FX average: 49.385 [1] 

[3] Stanford
RQS: 196.355 [3]
Season high: 197.400 [2]
Season average: 196.148 [3]
Road average: 196.168 [3] 

VT RQS: 49.120 [3] 
VT average: 49.013 [3] 
Road VT average: 48.957 [3]  

UB RQS: 49.230 [3]
UB average: 49.130 [3]
Road UB average: 49.236 [2]  

BB RQS: 49.195 [4] 
BB average: 49.088 [1] 
Road BB average: 49.079 [2]  

FX RQS: 49.050 [5]  
FX average: 48.918 [3] 
Road FX average: 48.904 [4]  

[4] Eastern Michigan
RQS: 196.040 [4]
Season high: 196.600 [5]
Season average: 195.515 [5]
Road average: 195.475 [5]

VT RQS: 48.970 [4] 
VT average: 48.825 [5] 
Road VT average: 48.891 [4]  

UB RQS: 49.060 [5]
UB average: 48.929 [5] 
Road UB average: 48.878 [5]  

BB RQS: 49.130 [5] 
BB average: 48.875 [5]
Road BB average: 48.872 [6]  

FX RQS: 49.075 [4] 
FX average: 48.894 [4]
Road FX average: 48.847 [5]  

[5] Penn State
RQS: 195.960 [5]
Season high: 197.125 [4]
Season average: 195.555 [4]
Road average: 195.858 [4]

VT RQS: 48.955 [5] 
VT average: 48.852 [4] 
Road VT average: 48.854 [5]  

UB RQS: 49.160 [4] 
UB average: 49.025 [4]
Road UB average: 48.958 [4] 

BB RQS: 49.085 [6] 
BB average: 48.823 [6]
Road BB average: 48.950 [4]   

FX RQS: 49.130 [3] 
FX average: 48.855 [5] 
Road FX average: 49.096 [3]  

[6] New Hampshire
RQS: 195.485 [6]
Season high: 196.075 [6]
Season average: 194.775 [6]
Road average: 194.531 [6] 

VT RQS: 48.765 [6] 
VT average: 48.533 [6] 
Road VT average: 48.456 [6]  

UB RQS: 48.925 [6] 
UB average: 48.688 [6] 
Road UB average: 48.600 [6]  

BB RQS: 49.220 [2] 
BB average: 48.904 [4] 
Road BB average: 48.934 [5]  

FX RQS: 48.995 [6] 
FX average: 48.675 [6]
Road FX average: 48.566 [6]

-Interestingly, the #2-seed Michigan leads in the large majority of event-specific categories even before home averages are taken into account. Michigan and Auburn could have very easily been flipped in the standings since they’re so close, and being at home only helps to put Michigan in favorite position here. Normally, who’s the favorite to be first and who’s likely to be second isn’t too relevant, but it’s everything here because of the lurking Stanford.

-Did we expect Stanford to be in the top two in more than just four categories? I did. A lot of the belief in Stanford’s upset capability is based on potential (and that one meet at UCLA) rather than on actual results and scores, which would seem to indicate that Stanford no more or less likely than the other #3 seeds to score an upset. But it’s hard to say that because…this is what Stanford does. Every year.

-Discussion question: If it weren’t Stanford, but the exact same routine scores and meet results coming from another school, would we still be addressing upset potential with this level of seriousness?

7 thoughts on “Which Teams Can Pull Off the Upset at Regionals?”

  1. Stanford lost all those routines with the seniors and they have not been replaced. There is one freshman doing uneven bars, Dare Maxwell, who struggles to get a 9.8 or higher and Danielle McNair is in the line-up but neither are a replacement for Samantha Shapiro or Becky Wing who gave Stanford minimum 9.85 routines and sometimes 9.9 or higher in 2015. On beam, Stanford now has Ebee doing beam and Melissa Chuang back from injury killing it on BB so BB is the closest to 2015 potential. FX and VT are about the same as 2015 with the caveat that Taylor Rice's 9.9s on FX have not materialized in 2016. However, if they all hit and are fairly scored the potential is there for an upset. Stanford was definitely underscored being in session 1 of Pac-12s. Gymnasts were getting 9.7s for stuck vaults with good form. Hopefully that won't be a problem at regionals. Ebee got a 9.9 for a vault that should have been at least a 9.95 if not a 10.

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  2. Outside of Ebee and Ivana Hong, I'm unimpressed by Stanford this year. Can they turn it on and have another crazy meet like at UCLA? Maybe. But having one hit meet all year, with the talent that is on their roster, is underwhelming. If this were any other top program, people would be starting to discuss a coaching change. If UGA were sitting at 18th heading to regionals, people would be flipping out and criticizing the program and coaches nonstop. Yet, somehow Stanford gets a pass. I don't know if it's because people have lower expectations for the program or if people just don't take them seriously enough to expect super six contention every year.

    Ebee hits and Ivana Hong is a gorgeous gymnast, but I don't see the fight in the rest of the team. They seem out of shape compared to other top programs.

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  3. People probably give them a pass b/c it's clear that academics come first and that's why these athletes not only chose this school but got in. It's just a different level of priorities, and it's incredible that they're as competitive as they are while the school holds to their academic rigor and turns down gymnasts like Kyla Ross. It's just different and while I root for them and admire their talent (not to mention intelligence), I understand it's not likely to get a team as deep as the other big 6 schools.

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  4. Did Kyla state that she was turned down from Stanford? I always wonder how the info gets out since the school is not legally allowed to release the information. Did she say she chose UCLA because she didn't get into Stanford?

    Also, all NCAA athletes have caps on training time. Thus, theoretically, the athletes at Stanford are training for the same amount of time as Oregon State, Arizona State, UCLA, Utah, etc. The rigorous academics is a cop out. The football team and basketball teams don't hold themselves to lower standards on the competition field. You don't see Michigan gymnasts stating that they are lowering expectations because the academic standards are so high at UM.

    The Stanford team always consists of former elites and former National Team members. There's no excuse for not fielding a competitive team each year. It seems they are always dealing with injuries (which leads me to think their strength and conditioning program may be subpar) and the gymnasts are not living up to potential. I don't think it's academics. I think it's a motivation issue and coaching issue (and coaches should be motivating their athletes).

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  5. I don't think Kyla completed the process with Stanford, she wanted to defer at that time to try for the Olympics and Stanford doesn't allow deferrals.

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  6. Didn't Kristina Vaculik take a year off to compete in London? Does Stanford just not allow athletes to defer the year prior to freshman year? That seems like an odd policy if they then allow athletes to walk away for a year (as sophomores or juniors) and later return.

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