National Championship Preview Part 3: You’re All Super to Me, Except for Five of You

Without knowing how the semifinals will play out, previewing Super Six is like looking for shadows in a blindfold factory. Still, performances so far this season have provided a pretty good indication of which teams are in serious contention to win the title and which teams are simply looking to make Super Six/snatch a respectable finish if one of the top teams falters. Surprise, surprise, the four most likely title contenders are also the four top-ranked teams.

Those rankings exist for a reason. The ultimate champion has not come from outside the top three since the beginning of the Georgia dynasty in 2005, when Georgia entered the postseason in 5th, and for each of the last three seasons, the regular-season top three has also finished Super Six in the top three places. So while a weird upset or two in the semifinals could help the chances for a cusp team like Utah to get into the rarefied territory of podium-land, the four teams that should be challenging for the title of Superest of the Super Six, because you’re all just super, are Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, and Alabama. The only other team that spent any time in the top three this season was Michigan, and that ship has sailed.

A rotation-by-rotation team comparison as to the pace they’ll need to set won’t be possible until we have the rotation order, although this is the draw for Super Six for quick reference once we know how the semifinals finish.

The winner of the second semi gets Olympic order, and the winner of the first semi gets to start on beam. Fun. The third-place teams are the ones who will end on byes, as by design.

Of course, to win Super Six, you have to be good on all the things, but rather than just go through the teams and say, “It would be nice if Florida got a good score on bars, and also beam, and floor, and vault. That would make it easier to win” (duh), I’ve assigned each of these four teams a critical event, not necessarily a “must-win” event because that’s hyperbolic (and I never, ever, ever write hyperbolically), but one that should be a massive strength, can’t be a massive weakness, or is generally the best indicator for that team as to whether a title chase is really on.

Vault – LSU

LSU’s ability on vault and concerted use of Gnat Power has made the Tigers the only non-Oklahoma team to occupy the top spot on any event to end the season. If circumstances play out the way they have during the regular season, vault appears to be the juiciest opportunity for the other teams to strike a blow to the Sooners since Oklahoma’s RQS is just a pitiful 49.415 here. (Like, are you even trying?) LSU is the best poised to do that.
Continue reading National Championship Preview Part 3: You’re All Super to Me, Except for Five of You

National Championships Preview Part 2: Deja Vu in Spoilertown

Every year. Every year it’s the same. One semifinal looks like it’s going to be close and exciting and weird and controversial, and the other looks like a straightforward stroll through the local meadow in a world made only of springtime. Except, it never really works out that way. Take last year’s second semifinal, when Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama squared off against Auburn, Nebraska, and Oregon State. “Ah ha ha,” we said. “Bring me another glass of port. Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama will surely advance.”

Nope. The infamous freshman-lost-her-mind heard ’round the world saw Auburn qualify instead of LSU. Nebraska managed to produce a similar complication the year before, against many of the same teams we see gathered this year. Almost all of them. I know. The straightforward semifinal tends to have a way of getting our attention, so how confident do we feel that Oklahoma, Alabama, and Utah will emerge from this session? What tricks do the Bruins have planned for us? Whom will they exhume to perform a surprise routine this time?

Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Oklahoma (bye before floor)
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)
[5] Utah (vault)
[8] UCLA (bars)
[10] Cal (beam)
[12] Nebraska (floor)

Competing individuals
All-around – Maddie Gardiner, Oregon State; Nina McGee, Denver; Amanda Wellick, Arkansas; Brianna Brown, Michigan; Mollie Drenth, Iowa; Lisa Burt, Michigan State

Vault – Taylor Allex, Arizona State
Beam – Risa Perez, Oregon State; Shani Remme, Boise State
Floor – Lizzy Leduc, Illinois; Rachel Slocum, Eastern Michigan

Though three clear favorites have established themselves in this group, it’s not quite as meadow-like as some of the “easy” semifinals have been in past years. Alabama and Utah did not perform overwhelmingly at regionals, and UCLA absolutely possesses the talent to advance on a good day. Something I hadn’t realized until now: Since the advent of Super Six, UCLA has never gone three straight seasons without qualifying. Having missed out on Super Six the last two years, the Bruins are in line to make an unfortunate piece of history if they don’t secure the upset this time around. #saveuskyla

Let’s get to it.

OKLAHOMA
The Sooners have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the teams in recent weeks, not showing the same variations in performance, blips, and inconsistencies of the other top contenders. Oklahoma’s regionals score was the highest in the country by a pretty solid margin and the performance was by far the cleanest.

Oklahoma must be the title favorite at this point but far from a prohibitive one. Several areas have emerged, from security of vault landings to floor difficulty, that may be cause for concern in a Super Six context when needing to defeat the likes of Florida, but for now, Oklahoma is the safest pick. If the Sooners were to lose it at the semifinal stage, it would be the biggest upset of any of the teams. Oklahoma hasn’t had a single fall in a competition routine since February 7th and hasn’t seen two actual falls in the same rotation all season long. That’s a rather remarkable feat, so while we can question some of the details, Oklahoma would have to count a fall to fail to emerge from this semifinal. And that would be a first.

I’ll go into detail in the Super Six preview, but a critical area I’ll be watching in the semifinal is how those early-lineup floor routines are evaluated, especially with the Sooners starting on that event. At regionals, Brown and Capps pretty much nailed their routines and got 9.850s (and Jones performed somewhat near her normal for a 9.800), but Oklahoma is going to need higher scores for those routines to reach a national-championship-winning total. The last four winners (counting Florida and Oklahoma in 2014 as two different winners) have all scored over 49.6 on floor in Super Six. Given the evaluation of floor this season, I imagine that will be the standard once again.
Continue reading National Championships Preview Part 2: Deja Vu in Spoilertown

Pacific Rim Live Blog

Because why not?

In a weekend without NCAA gymnastics, we must find some way to occupy our time, so USAG has charitably provided the Pacific Rim Championship, the Pacific Northwest’s most important geographically arbitrary biennial international gymnastics competition. It’s kind of a big deal, you guys.

It’s the precursor to next week’s Countries That Share a Border With Another Country That Has a Name Ending in Y Championship. Prestigious. Sorry, Brazil, I can’t invite you because…I think you might border the Atlantic.

It’s also the chance for Simone Biles to square off against Canada, Australia, and a bunch of gymnasts who are dismounting bars with a Nastia flyaway and then go, “Oh, did I win?” Yes, Simone. You won.

I love that Russia and China don’t even bother sending women’s teams anymore. For a while they would fake it by sending some C Teamers and Maria Kharenkova, but now they can’t even bring themselves to throw a random junior at us. The Russians are far too busy fulfilling drug tests with a piece of notebook paper that says “NO MELDONIUM HERE.” Done and done.

Also, in case you thought the rules of this competition dictated that teams had to send three seniors and three juniors…nope. Not anymore. Because it was really important that the US send an impossibly strong team of seniors to make sure to win this competition by 78 points. Winning by 5 points would have been so embarrassing. What is the expression, taking a gun to a knife fight? The team the US has sent to this competition is like taking a gun to a sewing circle. Put away that gun, Louisa.

To the gymnastics? Shall we?

They’ve “journeyed to Everett, Washington.” Like they took the Oregon Trail.

This national anthem is a little elementary school dodgeball tournament, isn’t it? Oh, Sue.

Macready’s dream in life is to be the 24th member of Jay-Z’s entourage.

Our PA guy’s pronunciation of Allana Slater like her name is Spanish is my new favorite thing. 

Tim has already given Simone five Olympic medals.
I’m watching both the NBC nu-trio and Evan and Sam. But I’m probably going to listen to NBC only because it’s way more fun to make fun of. Evan and Sam are…just enjoyable.

“HIS LIGHT DIDN’T COME ON.”

We’re already going Brenna time on floor. Almost goes OOB on her double front – nailed front double pike – “you’re looking at a real veteran, Brenna Dowell.” “You’re looking at an old hag, Brenna Dowell.”

A couple slightly short landings and the big lunge out of the opening pass for Brenna. Otherwise solid enough. Oklahoma hasn’t really missed a beat without her, but it’s exciting to think about Dowell and Nichols adding themselves to the mix next year.

Sam is not happy with Kuwajima’s handstand speed.

Ragan Smith on floor now -with her “Hi, I’m 11” Addam’s family routine – just to let us know that she’s a pixie. Short on DLO – large stumble, triple full is better. A little short on double arabian – secure landing on double pike, chest down. How very NCAA of her.

Sam and Evan could not be less enthusiastic about having to pretend to know about trampoline. But they are totally making fun of the NBC trio, and I couldn’t be happier. You go, guys.

McGregor of NZL is heading to Boise State soon. We won’t see her vault because Laurie Hernandez is up on floor. OK DLO, it’s a little low and worrying, but she got it this time. Her second pass is a double arabian, near stuck, very strong – instead of a third pass, Miss Val actually just drops into the arena on a hot air balloon and steals her and takes her to UCLA, which is a shame because it means she won’t be able to finish the competition.

In the race to see which new senior is going to steal Maggie Nichols’ rightful place, it’s Hernandez 1, Smith 0.
 McGregor did a DTY. Low, but that’s going to be a useful full or 1.5 for BSU next year.
Second vault is a 1/2 on pike 1/2, quite messy to I’d guess keeping her with the yurchenko entry for NCAA next year.

Peterman has fallen on beam. Off the Olympic team!

Raisman time – 1.5 to double arabian to layout, and stays comfortable in bounds this time. Double L is short and falls out of it, strong Dos Santos to stag, the best pass in her routine usually. High and comfortable DLO as well – we’re pretending these leaps don’t exist because it’s just better for everyone, we won’t pretend like they’re close to 180 – hit routine, what she needed to do to make sure she stays ahead of the other floor options. She’s still a more important floor score, which can get her on the team.

Roberts for Canada had a bit of a wobble burger on beam.

Biles time now – fab DLO 1/1, of course, bounces back, but excellent height and form obviously – do I even need to quick hit it? It’s good. I’m disturbed by these little unfortunate squeak screams in the music here. It feels…inappropriate? Like…is that woman OK? Casual sticks on the double double and the full in. You know. Whatever.

You get the feeling that this music was chosen for her by a focus group. What will be the most marketable and Rio-themed music for Simone to be used during highlight reels during the Olympics to make her the star we need her to be?

Bali, Mali, Chile, Malawi. It’s back. It will never leave us. We will never survive.

Don’t worry, the US is ahead by 765 points after one rotation.

Extended team ass closeup as they walk to the next event? Necessary?

Simone breaks 16 on floor. Obviously.

NBC showing highlights of the men’s competition. It includes two routines. That pretty much sums it up.

We’re already to vault!
Smith does a DTY – crazy legs on her block and chest down, but secure landing.

Sullivan of NZ with a tkatchev/bail type bars routine – short on the bail, dismounts double pike with bounce forward.

Hernandez – VT – DTY – better chest position than Smith but a large bounce back – exactly one centimeter of distance from the table.

Rousseau hands down on a double pike on floor. What is the Brittany Rogers situation?

Dowell – VT – DTY – good block and height, same bounce back as Hernandez.

McGregor – was working well through the shap – very close on her shoot back to high and struggles after that – has the compulsory Boise State gienger but the leg form will need to be revised. 

Raisman – VT – bounces A THOUSAND miles out of her 2.5. She’ll obviously be pissed because they were much better in training. That does not help her case because that will score below a strong DTY. The team needs her 2.5 because of questions around people like Nichols. This isn’t the 2.5 the team needs.

Copiak is going to be a big deal for Washington next year to replace Northey’s scores.

Simone also flies forward out of her 2.5. What is happening? Large lunge.
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE CHENG? CHENG CHENG CHENG.

Cheng is much better than her Amanar suddenly today. Small hop, gets it around pretty well, low chest, hop back. It’ll be fine for the Olympics. NBC is already licking its USA VS. NORTH KOREA narrative chops for the vault final at the Olympics. Can you imagine? I can imagine.

Shallon Olsen has a double double. That will help, also a really tight tuck position on her double back, like an actual circle.

Evan tells us we won’t be seeing Brittany Rogers until vault. BUT I CAN’T WAIT THAT LONG.

This meet is going at SEC pace, and I like it. The US is going to be done in like an hour.

NZL had a disaster bail. Roberts from Canada shows a Dos Santos – and the Charleston -there is some solid floor difficulty in the next group of the Canadian national team, so they don’t just have to rely on Ellie forever.

Those US vaults were better than any other country’s but not so awesome with the landings this time. Martha is going to have to put quite a few people at the punishment table tonight. No watermelon slices for you.

The trendy hot take after Jesolo was that Aly’s stock is PLUMMETING. It isn’t. That 2.5 is still…no me gusta, but I think it will get close enough, and her floor routine continues getting her on the team.

Some really unfortunate thing happened where a little girl had a cry for help and then Macready just made her hug a sad hershey’s kiss. I don’t want to talk about it anymore.

Raisman to bars. Aly’s same bars routine as always. There was a really popular claim that Aly had IMPROVED HER BARS FORM since London. Uh……a little….?

Hernandez is next. she has a leg crazy on her stradle full every time, but she has some tremendous toe point and form usually, not so much this time with a ragged pak, hop on tuck full. Some iffier moments than she usually shows in training, on an event that should be quite strong for her, which is becoming a bit of a trend. Her bars training routines are better than her competition routines this year.

I lied about following the NBC commentators. The NBC stream is behind, and I’m a slave to live. Also, Sam and Evan are delightful to listen to.

Nice DTY from Olsen. High, small hop back. Very usable in an Olympic/Worlds context.

Biles on bars – her new name is Simone AHHHHH according to the crowd – Good hit, excellent form throughout. It always looks like she wants to connect the pak out of her tkatchev but has to wait until the piked tkatchev. Sticks tuck full dismount like nothing. Very controlled and composed form throughout.

Olsen’s second vault is a Khorkina with signature Khorkina legs.

Brittany Rogers – VT -Excellent DTY, lunge back – but clear that she should be doing the 1.5 for UGA, not the DTY like I wanted. second vault is half on layout 1/2.

OK. Dowell bars. Here we go. Martha has prepared the pitchfork just in case.

Dowell – UB – toe full to shapto tkatchev, high for a tkatchev out of a shap – hit jaeger – Church to pak – shap 1/2 – presice final hs – hop forward on DLO 1/1. SHE HIT A ROUTINE. Much more boring and smart composition, and a competitive D score.

Did Sam accidentally just tell us that Brenna is coming out? No?

Important hit for Brenna. She might get a crust of bread for that.

Locklear – UB – same composition that we’ve seen from her – nice line and handstands throughout – very high tkatchev, the problem for her is that her spot has been taken by Kocian, and she doesn’t have anything upgraded that is going to knock out Kocian if Kocian comes back health……AH HAHAHAHAHA. 

“Spot the tramp.” I play that game too.

Ragan Smith is charitably getting to go on bars even though she was not selected as one of the five.
Simith – jumping to the high bar is the hardest skill for her in this routine – it’s not a natural event for her or a big routine, but she has the composition, clean line, small hop on tuck full.

Sullivan has some wobbles on beam, but this is a higher-level NZL showing than we have seen a bigger international meets.

USAG stream goes to commercial over Macready. Bregman gets us.

Final rotation beam times now. Ooohh, Locklear got a real beam spot over Dowell? Damn.
Evan and Sam pointing out those seriously wonky knees on her loso series. Nice punch front – pretty comfortable and controlled position on L turn as well – switch and switch 1/2 are solid 180, loses her tow point on her switch 1/2 – double tuck with step back. This routine has become more consistent, which is a big deal for her, but it’s not a TF routine.

Smith coming up on beam. My preferred event for her.
Smith – BB – wolfathon early – solid on layout 2ft series, secure on tuck full as well – this is the one event where she could potentially be a TFer, but others are ahead of her. Chest pretty well up on the double pike, small hop back.

Roberts just did a pak into her appendix. And another fall. Oh, Canada. Our home and native land.

Raisman – BB – check on front pike – she has been more nervous on beam this quad than last, not quite the same level of sturdy German-neess – “layout” to two feet – very secure – switch star jump 1/2 to back pike is very secure – I kid – I kid because her form is poor. It’s a credit to her that I still really like her in spite of all these things. It’s not necessarily explicable. I just do. Strong upright Patterson, but a step to the side this time, which she wasn’t doing in training.

Hernandez – BB – fantastic walkover to split and sissone – lovely – extended legs on her three series as well – slightly obsessed, don’t worry about it – not a wobble on any of this acro – one check on switch half. Excellent switch ring, how it’s supposed to look – double pike, chest down with a step. Will be a high score. This is the trouble for Smith in trying to squeeze her way onto the team. She’s being out-touched by Hernandez.

Rogers on bars. We know this game. And she fell on a jaeger. We also know this game. Oh, Brittany. But…from a stalder full to reverse? You go. Ricna to pak is close, which she has done a few times at Georgia. Nice shap 1/2, DLO with a hop. She made the mistake now, and won’t next weekend…is what I’m going to tell myself. 

Aly Raisman finished a tenth ahead of Laurie Hernandez, as was agreed.

We go to Simone on beam to finish things off – hits her wolf 2.5 in a not terrible way – that barani, it’s just a little not-perfect for Simone, isn’t it? It’s fine, but chest down, and everything else is ideal. Losos are strong, as is punch front, a check or two here but this is not the tentative non-important early-season beam routine we sometimes see from Simone. Just sticks her tuck full.

I feel like maybe Simone won.

Brenna – BB – front tuck mount, yes you do – solid – walkover – bhs full, small check on loso series – short on a switch split – this is the routine she wasn’t doing for Oklahoma, but she has been OK so far, the form isn’t quite Oklahomay, but I can see her getting a spot next season. Step back on double pike.

62.450 for Biles. And that’s our quick little meet done and dusted. Event finals tomorrow!

Brenna is 4th AA for a 58.850. It helps. Not Olympic Team helps, but it keeps her in the Trials mix. It’s going to be damn hard to make Trials this year, and there are people in the Hundley category who will get Memmeled after nationals.