Monthly Archives: June 2016

Fun with Numbers, Olympics

*UPDATED* US Women’s Olympic Team Calculator

25 Comments

NOTE: This has been updated to include the results from both days of P&G Championships.

Following up on the men’s Olympic team calculator, I’ve also done one for the women so that we can compare the scoring potentials of all the various team options we could possibly imagine, and some we couldn’t imagine.

We don’t have as much to go on yet for the women, but this calculator takes into account all scores recorded so far in competition in 2016 to make up for it.

Once again, here’s how it works. In the cell next to “Team Member #X,” write only the surnames of the five gymnasts on the prospective Olympic team you’d like to test. Once you’ve listed at least three gymnasts, you’ll see a three-up, three-count total for that team on each event along with a full team total. There are two calculation options here. The first is based on the highest score each gymnast has achieved in competition this year on each event, and the second is based on the average score each gymnast has achieved in competition this year on each event. The optimism option and the realism option.

As a handy reminder of who the people are and how their last names are spelled (be sure they’re spelled correctly), here are the 24 women included in this calculator: Biles, Raisman, Douglas, Hernandez, Nichols, Smith, Skinner, Baumann, Dowell, Locklear, Kocian, Gowey, Schild, Hundley, Dennis, Desiderio, Gaskins, Navarro, Frazier, Trautman, Paulson, Ramler, Musselman, DeGuzman.

[office src=”https://onedrive.live.com/embed?cid=074627716A738B87&resid=74627716A738B87%21126&authkey=AEKOv6Fux_Ernuo&em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&AllowTyping=True&ActiveCell='Sheet1'!A2&Item='Sheet1'!A2%3AC103″ width=”390″ height=”2500″]

Stuff and Nonsense

Things Are Happening – June 10, 2016

5 Comments

To be honest, not that many things are happening. Like maybe 3. Something about calm and storms. Thirteen days until men’s trials and women’s nationals. Twenty-eight days until women’s trials. Fifty-seven days until the Olympics. You can make it. I know it. Just keep swimming.

1. Samantha Partyka retires

Samantha Partyka announced this week that she’s retiring with a chronic case of Lifetime of Gymnastics. It’s a somewhat unexpected development because she seemed to have just recovered and was back on track in April doing the all-around.

For Utah, barely anything could have been worse. This increases the number of lost routines from last year’s postseason lineups to 13 out of 24. A.k.a., more than half. No fun.

The Utes will have Kari Lee returning from her Achilles trauma, ideally on four events, and will be adding Skinner, Reinstadtler, and Tessen, all of whom should be expected to make lineups on multiple events. Theoretically, 13 replacement routines is doable for this group, but each and every one of them will have to deliver as promised, along with increased contribution from sophomores like Schwab, Merrell, and the MIA Shannon McNatt. We’ll get into all this in detail during the preseason, but if you’re like me, you have Obsessive NCAA-Lineup-Creation Disorder and have already decided what Utah’s lineups should be next year. FACT AND DONE.

Utah also now has an unforeseen open scholarship spot, so…any Canadians/Australians/Brits out there eager for a last-minute change of plans? Anyone want to graduate high school early?

2. Florida lineups v. Alabama lineups

In other fascinating NCAA news, Emily Gaskins is switching from Florida to Alabama and had some telling comments about the move, particularly the implication that it’s very hard to make lineups at Florida (extremely true) but will be much easier at Alabama because she’ll be one of the top gymnasts (well…). It’s still Alabama. Making lineups at Alabama is no picnic. Just ask the 2016 freshman class. Continue reading Things Are Happening – June 10, 2016 →

P&G Championships

Checking Out Some D – Post-Classic Edition

1 Comment

Secret Classic is just Secret Classic. It’s the first step, not the decisive step. It’s never truly going to ruin anyone’s chances all by itself (which is code for “don’t write off Madison Kocian just because of that”), but this year’s competition did reveal a couple key changes in the D-score rankings as well as reinforcing the viability of several contenders on specific events, gymnasts who were closer to question-mark territory before the meet (which is code for “Aly Raisman had an important meet in spite of bars”).

So, as before, I have taken the current difficulty scores for the senior elites advancing to nationals and arranged the Ds by size, now updated to include the routines performed at Secret Classic if they reflected an upgrade (or change in composition—for instance, I put Rachel Gowey’s bars D back down to 6.3 from 6.5 as it appears she’s no longer doing inbar skills).

Once again, I removed the stick bonuses from the D scores because stick bonuses are the work of a multi-headed demon creature from below the sea and serve only to make the US scores even more misleading and unrealistic than they might be otherwise. Yurchenko fulls for seniors are also awarded just 4.7 instead of 5.0 at US competitions (because only stupid foreign jerks who are totally untalented do Yurchenko fulls), so I restored those to their actual 5.0 D level as well.

All-Around

pcaa

Among the Timmy D comments heard ’round the gymternet during the competition was the categorical statement that Aly Raisman will not be doing bars in qualification at the Olympics. …OK?

Now, will Aly Raisman have the weakest bars routine on the Olympic team? Yes. But that didn’t stop Martha from holding Nichols out of the AA at worlds last year to give Raisman a shot at qualifying, only to have Nichols return to the lineup to perform her first bars routine of the competition in the team final (a conventional-wisdom no-no, but a decision that worked out well).

I wouldn’t be all that surprised if it happened again at the Olympics. Though imagine the hell that will be raised if, say, Laurie Hernandez gets held off of bars in qualification so that Raisman can do the all-around instead of her.  Continue reading Checking Out Some D – Post-Classic Edition →

Fun with Numbers, Olympic Trials

*FINAL* US Men’s Olympic Team Calculator

9 Comments

NOTE: This has been updated to include the final results from Olympic Trials.

Because we’ve all (and by “we’ve all,” I obviously mean just me) been agonizing over various US men’s team options ever since nationals made everything harder, I’ve put together a handy-dandy little calculator so we can assess and compare all the possible groups of five Olympians (both realistic and five-Paul-Ruggeris-type). That way, everyone can join in the fun! This is what fun is, right?

Go ahead and give it a whirl!

Here’s how it works: In the cell next to “Team Member #X,” write the surname only of the gymnasts on a prospective Olympic team. Once you’ve listed at least three gymnasts, you’ll see a three-up, three-count total for that team on each event—as well as a full team total—based on the scores from nationals.

There are two options here, the first one is based on the highest score received by each gymnast at nationals (if you’re a glass-half-full kind of person), and the second one is based on the average score received by each gymnast at nationals (if you’re a glass-half-pommel-horse kind of person).

As a handy reminder of who the people are and how their last names are spelled (be sure they’re spelled correctly), here are the 18 remaining options for the US men’s Olympic team: Mikulak, Brooks, Dalton, Modi, Melton, Whittenburg, Moldauer, Kimble, Ruggeri, Orozco, Maestas, Naddour, Oyama, Bailey, Penev, Leyva, Legendre, Wynn.

[office src=”https://onedrive.live.com/embed?cid=074627716A738B87&resid=74627716A738B87%21124&authkey=AJA1HTifgcWaDiY&em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&AllowTyping=True&ActiveCell='Sheet1'!A2&Item='Sheet1'!A2%3AC143″ width=”380″ height=”3300″]