Nationals Preview Part 3: The Individuals

Welcome to Afterthought City.

The individual titles for the all-around and apparatuses are awarded on Semifinal Friday, which ensures that everyone will kind of forget they exist while focusing on team qualification standings—and then three minutes later, everyone turns to everyone else and says, “Oh yeah, wait, who won vault?” It’s a national tradition.

This year, we’re primarily rooting for having fewer than six people tie for the bars title. And by fewer, I mean more. The real goal of the event titles is to have so many people tie for a single spot on the podium that they have to Jenga it, and hilarity ensues. I really feel like floor is going to come through for us this time around.

But first…

All-Around

The favorite
Maggie Nichols – Oklahoma
RQS: 39.830
High: 39.900
Ranking: 1

For the second straight year, Nichols enters nationals as the favorite for the title and clear #1 in the country, which she accomplished this season with a record-breaking 39.830 RQS, eclipsing Jeanette Antolin’s total of 39.795 from 2004.

Only 16 gymnasts in NCAA history have scored over 39.825 in the all-around on even a single occasion, and Nichols’ RQS is higher than that. If Nichols hits, she is a heavy favorite—though not an exclusive favorite—for the all-around title.

It was a fall on beam in the semifinals that dropped Nichols out of contention last season, but Alex McMurtry ultimately went on to score so high in the second semifinal that the fall from Nichols didn’t matter. McMurtry would have won regardless. (I think I’ve heard/maybe said before that the fall cost Nichols the all-around title, which is not correct.) The only thing the Nichols fall took away was any controversy over who the rightful winner was. 
The challengers

MyKayla Skinner – Utah
RQS: 39.695
High: 39.725
Ranking: 2

As the current #2 in the country, Skinner will be right there. She anchors Utah on every event this year, which should help bring up the scores compared to last season when she led off on bars. Skinner will expect a 9.9 on every event to get herself a competitive total.

The main obstacle for Skinner ends up being the difficulty she performs, which makes it harder to stick—particularly on vault and beam. That accounts for Skinner’s high score for 2018 being well lower than the other top challengers despite her #2 ranking. We’ll often see Skinner take a one-tenth slide back on her DTY and score 9.900 for it, a very good score, but a streak of 9.900s probably isn’t going to win the all-around title this year. Skinner will be looking for a couple sticks to boost herself higher into the 9.9s.

Alex McMurtry – Florida
RQS: N/A
High: 39.825
Ranking: UNR

The defending champion has the potential to get a gigantic number, as we saw last season at nationals (and as we just saw at regionals, when she hit a big and complete all-around for the second time this year). McMurtry is a strong contender for multiple individual event titles and typically has the highest score in meets on at least vault and bars.

The one question for McMurtry is (as usual) floor, where she’s limited physically in the numbers she can do and has thrown in couple weaker routines in the five floors she performed this year. It’s a miracle she has been able to compete postseason floor these last three year, but she’ll have to get through with secure landings and probably the top score in the lineup to have a real shot at the repeat.

Elizabeth Price – Stanford
RQS: 39.685
High: 39.825
Ranking: 3

Can Price do it without a team? That’s the question. Theoretically, it shouldn’t be an issue because every routine should simply be judged on its own merit and AHAHAHA I do say the silliest things. It has been 23 years since a non-team individual won the all-around title, and Price is the most realistic contender to do it in quite a while.

Price will be rotating with Utah and therefore going after Skinner on each event, which may allow her to draft off the back of the Utah scores. Regardless of who she might be rotating with, however, Price should be able to get very competitive scores that go safely into the 9.9 zone on three events. The question is beam, which has always been Price’s biggest challenge. She has some built-in deductions there and a difficult-to-stick landing, but if Price can nail the dismount and get through beam with a 9.900, then her 9.950+ potential on the other events can still carry her through to a title total.

The spoilers
Someone from LSU
Finnegan RQS: 39.645
Finnegan High: 39.775
Ranking: 4

Hambrick RQS: 39.615
Hambrick High: 39.725
Ranking: 7

Edney RQS: 39.530
Edney High: 39.775
Ranking: 10

But which one? Expect at least one from LSU to get a score that realistically challenges the top gymnasts, and with all four of the very toppity top contenders competing in the second semifinal, LSU looks the most likely team to have the temporary all-around leader at the end of the first session.

Finnegan enters as the highest ranked of the three, and we know she can get absolutely huge scores on several events. The only real caveat to her title ability is performing a full on vault and doing so in the first position. While it’s an excellent full, it will often get 9.850ed, which is probably not a score that can be used for an AA winner.

Hambrick is the most complete of the three in terms of having both difficulty and execution and should be kept in mind as a possible winner because she has no weaknesses. Hambrick can good-day go 9.950 on every event. It’s just her early lineup placements on bars and beam (and this unexpected late-season inconsistency on floor landings) that may keep her lower down. But, if you’re asking me to pick who’s leading the AA after the first semi, I’m picking Hambrick.

Edney is the in-team underdog in this one because she doesn’t always have the consistency to get her ranking up there, but she has the routine content and amplitude for a big total if she sticks her 1.5 again. It’s the evaluation of beam leaps that may be her only undoing. That score can lag a little farther behind.

Kyla Ross – UCLA
RQS: 39.625
High: 39.700
Ranking: 6

Ross’s realistic 10.0 potential on bars and beam keeps her up among the top contenders because she can absorb a few more issues on vault and floor and remain competitive nonetheless. Like Finnegan, vaulting just a full is likely a massive obstacle because her full must be absolutely perfect to get her a 9.900, the minimum score necessary to stay in touch. Also keep in mind that Ross didn’t compete floor at regionals—and can get 9.8-ed even when she does go, which may keep her outside the contending numbers.

Makenna Merrell-Giles – Utah
RQS: 39.585
High: 39.675
Ranking: 8

Merrell-Giles has emerged as a legitimate contender for big AA scores this year, often matching Skinner, with the routine content and composition across four pieces to stand out and get large numbers. Truly contending for a title may be a step too far because of some knee form here and there across the pieces and having to go early in some lineups (and before Skinner in all lineups). That can keep the numbers down.

Alicia Boren – Florida
RQS: 39.585
High: 39.675
Ranking: 9

It can be quite tough to get the numbers when you’re not the highest-scoring AAer on the team, and Boren is in the same boat as MMG if the scores are being held for McMurtry on a couple critical events. Boren has the gymnastics, especially on vault and floor, but she has to control that vault landing and must be absolutely pristine on bars to get a big score in the first position. That’s another of those routines that can get stuck a 9.850 even if its great, which is going to be too low to contend this year.


Those are your top ladies. There will be others in contention (the all-around title is famous for being crazy and unpredictable like that time exactly zero people picked Kim Jacob as the winner in 2014), but those ten gymnasts are the most likely to do it.

The next tier (Webb, Williams, Korth, Hyland, Schweihofer, Ramler, L Brown, Snead) can get in, but it would have to be a totally weird day where many people throw in wobbles in order to upset the preordained hierarchy that much.


Events

If the all-around is unpredictable and ridiculous, it has nothing on the events. You could basically throw out any of the top 30 in the country and she’s just as likely as any of the others. Maybe they’ll all win!

It’s traditional around here to engage in Operation Sassmonster, wherein I predict the winners of the event titles using the very scientific methodology of “It’s the Person Who Goes Last.” Unfortunately, Operation Sassmonster got only one of the four events correct last year (after getting two right in 2016), which wasn’t ideal. But we all have off years, Michigan, and it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stick with it.

Let’s begin with vault. Nebraska will finish the first session there, while Kentucky finishes the second session, meaning my options for a winner are either Houchin or Korth, both with 10.0 starts. Houchin has scored a 9.975 this year, so I’m going for Taylor Houchin, 2018 vault champion. You heard it here first.

On bars, LSU will finish the first semifinal and Oklahoma will finish the second, providing very likely and realistic options in Finnegan and Nichols. Go me! So, I’m saying we’ll have a tie for the bars title that includes (but may not be limited to) both Finnegan and Nichols.

Beam concludes with Arkansas in the first session (Michaela Burton) and Cal in the second session (Sofie Seilnacht), so congratulations to 2018 national beam champion, Sofie Seilnacht.

The last teams on floor are UCLA in the first session and Utah in the second session, which is very charitable in providing realistic options named Ohashi and Skinner (and then Price follows right after Skinner, going as an individual). So, we will have a three-way tie for the national floor title with Ohashi, Skinner, and Price, all of whom will get 10s. Or maybe 11s.

For your actual edification, here are the real top five on each event heading into nationals.

VAULT
1. Nichols
2. McMurtry
3. Dowell
4. Price
5. Skinner

BARS
1. Finnegan
1. Price
1. McMurtry
1. Ross
5. Lehrmann

(Oh god, even the rankings are giving us a four-way tie)

BEAM
1. Lee
2. Nichols
3. Ohashi
4. Finnegan
5. Guerrero

FLOOR
1. Hambrick
1. Ohashi
3. Nichols
3. Skinner
3. Price

 

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37 thoughts on “Nationals Preview Part 3: The Individuals”

  1. LOL! Love the analysis. Honestly your rankings are as good as anybody’s.

    Spencer – did you do a bracket? I’d love to see your bracket uploaded a la March Madness.

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  2. >…she (Nichols) accomplished this season with a
    >record-breaking 39.830 RQS, eclipsing
    >Jeanette Antolin’s total of 39.795 from 2004.

    Question: All other things being equal, has there been rating “inflation” over those 14 years from 2004 to 2018? (Or deflation perhaps?) If so, approximately how much?

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  3. Ohashi’s 2nd and 3rd pass weakness shouldnt give her 1st place in floor Hambrick, Skinner, if they hit deserve more props for more difficulty. Ohashi skates by with easy second and 3rd passes.

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  4. DIFFICULTY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH NCAA SCORES. At nationals as long as you have clean landings within a well executed routine, you will score with the top floor workers even without an E pass (see Angi Cipra, sarah finnegan in semis last year, both without E passes). I actually thing Finnegan was just behind the champions in the rankings.

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    1. I think the commenter was talking about how Ohashi has leaps out of her passes. It isn’t difficulty in the sense of starting at a 10.0 or not, it’s more that she doesn’t have to worry about sticking landings like other gymnasts.

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    2. Yes it does at NCAA, they usually reward the gymnasts with more difficulty. It aint home town crack judging. But I guess you are right since you wrote in CAPS… lmao.

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    3. finnegan’s 1.5 to 2.5 is really hard and she’s one of the only ones to do it. i agree that if skinner and hambrick hit, they should be the ones to win cuz their difficulty is more impressive than ohashi or nichols

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  5. Maggie’s fall on beam last year did save lots of arguing about who should have won because I know I would have been arguing. In the end, I was relieved McMurtry saved us from a Skinner win so it was a mixed blessing.

    That Maggie’s RQS is higher this year than last year speaks to score inflation because I think she was better last year, although I guess this year she had the advantage of competing in more all-around meets than last year and being able to drop more of her “bad” meets.

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    1. Because of comments like this, I hope Skinner absolutely kills it at Nationals and wins the All Around. I am certainly glad that internet trolls weren’t around when I was 17/18 to bash me at every chance for some immature things I’m sure I did and said when I was that age. Skinner has matured a lot both in her gymnastics and the way she carries herself. And she’s done it in spite of constant sniping from people like you.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Because of comments like this, I hope Skinner absolutely crashes at Nationals and leaves without a single title. She’s still just as racist and homophobic and full of herself as ever.

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      2. Agreed! You never hear about male athletes getting criticized for being too confident or for having an attitude. Even Lauren on the gymternet said that in the course of watching her and interacting with her for 4 years, Skinner was nothing but gracious and Lauren never heard her talk disrespectfully about other athletes. Yes she has retweeted some things in poor taste but if you don’t like what she tweets, don’t follow her and look for every little thing she posts or retweets. Get a life.

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      3. Yep, I just want all teams & individuals to hit in an epic gymnastics mastery showdown and for the gymternet to not personally attack gymnasts. This isn’t too much to ask, is it?

        Liked by 1 person

  6. is it bad that I think Ebee has a better shot at a great score without her team there? Being compared to Utah gymnasts I think will help her whereas with her team she has been underscored many times.

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    1. I agree! If she is following 9.9s from Skinner, that should definitely help keep her score high. I think Price will win either vault or bars, but her beam will keep her out of the AA discussion.

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  7. I want Price and Nichols to tie for the AA. But if I can’t have that then I hope someone totally unexpected win, like one of the Lexies (Graber, Ramler).

    Liked by 2 people

  8. 2004 represents the peak of the previous crack-score epidemic, followed by a drastic correction in 2005. There were 21 AA scores of 39.8 or better in 2004, from 13 different gymnasts – the next highest # was in 2003 (9, from 5 gymnasts); then 2002 – 7, from 5 gymnasts. 1993 also had 6 (at least, records were a little incomplete then; from 4 gymnasts). After that, in the period from 1993-2008, it’s much sparser. There were 4 in 1995 (two from Jenny Hansen), and 3 each in 1997, 2001, & 2005.

    (This is drawn from a spreadsheet I kept up for a little while during the peak of this period, occasionally adding to it in the calmer years of 2005-2008. I noticed things were picking up again, but haven’t bothered to start it up again. Overall – looks like things were a little loose c. 1993-96 (but with some great gymnastics going on), less so in the late 90s, started getting excitable with the 2000 Olympians and near-Olympians going to NCAA, culminating in 2004, and then course-correcting afterwards. In the quieter years, there might be one or two who would occasionally pull it off (Karin Lichey in the late 90s & Courtney Kupets in the late 2000s, for example).

    2000-2004 was a particularly strong period for NCAA gymnastics, because so many 2000 Olympians decided to compete – but still. It was pretty crazy.

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  9. Michigan has stumbled at regionals and at Nationals in the semis quite a few times. I’m not quite sure why people are so surprised this season. They put up good scores during the season and then kind of stumble in post-season.

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  10. So really, event and AA titles will come down to Nichols, Skinner, Ross, McMurtry, Price, Hambrick, and Finnegan. Ohashi and Lee may also be thrown in the mix.

    My dream though is Winston on beam, B. Brown on bars, Vega on floor, and a random on vault who sticks for the first time ever at Nationals.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I’m a completely biased Michigan fan, but I’m glad I’m not the only one hoping for Brianna to win bars! She’ll technically be the last competitor in the first semifinal, since she’s rotating with LSU…

      I like your other picks, too. The “big names” are fantastic and well-deserving, but it’s nice to see some others shine on an individual level, as well.

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    2. If Reinstadtler hits with no slides she could be in the mix for floor. She has the difficulty and truly is elegant to watch. It is a big IF but definitely possible.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. She’s had one score (9.925) over 9.9 all year. It would be surprising to see her win floor.

        There are countless gymnasts who, if they hit a perfect routine, could win. This article is looking at who is most likely to win though. And Reinstadtler’s line up position and previous floor scores don’t make for a strong argument this year.

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  11. My AA podium dream is for Finnegan and Price to tie for first, Ramler in 3rd, and Nichols in 4th just for fun. Also Hambrick wins floor and Macedaeg wins beam. This is unlikely but a girl can dream!

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  12. Despite her gymnastics not being my favorite aesthetically of the top tier AA athletes, I sentimentally hope Price wins. It is likely all the other front runners will advance to the Super Six and would be a tremendous way to end her career. Lighting candles and praying for a beam miracle!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I like Ohashi’s floor, but would prefer to see someone else win. I think Ohashi and Hano have had several inflated scores this year.

      Ideally, I’d prefer Nichols, Jackson, Skinner, Hambrick, or Vega. If UCLA is on the floor podium, I hope it is Kramer. She has my favorite UCLA floor routine this year.

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      1. I totally agree. Kramer’s routine is a masterpiece. The others all have a realistic shot at winning too.

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    2. so agree. ohashi is so overscored on floor. i really like hano and kramer’s routines, but i cant see either challenging the likes of skinner or hambrick or even nichols if they hit

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  13. Because all of the top girls consistently score 9.9+ on the events, the event titles are really anyone’s game. It depends on the day and the judges I guess. For AA I could see Nichols winning if she hits this year but I could also see McMurtry winning again, Skinner, Finnegan, Ross if she competes all 4 events. Or Price if they don’t lowball her for competing individually instead of with a team. I don’t really see anyone else challenging those 6 but you never know I guess. I could see there being even more ties than last year for event titles which is why the event finals should be a separate competition!

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  14. Georgia did have a pretty good day, but not exactly sure why everyone wants to continue to state SO much better than the former coach. Danna’s teams were better almost every year. Her last year was the worst, but every team and coach has an off year. Next year will be even be more difficult when only 4 teams make it to final day. So, if Georgia fans think that they are going to get back to the glory days quickly, it will not be easy because of the new system. Also, let’s see what CKC can do with recruiting. They may have a large class coming in, but let’s see if she can land a top recruit because that is what will make the difference in future.

    I must say I do love Sabrina Vega and Georgia is lucky to have her.

    Results from Nationals

    2018: Ranking?? 196.6875
    2017: 12th 195.8
    2016: 6th Super 6 (196.812) Prelim (196.725)
    2015: 9th 196.6
    2014: 5th Super 6 (197.05 ) Prelims (197.3)
    2013: 6th Super 6 (196.675) Prelims (197.15)

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