Today, a look at the batch of top countries that have named their worlds teams thus far and how those teams shape up in terms of competitiveness, scoring potential, and strategy.

Great Britain

The defending silver medalists will aim to repeat that accomplishment in Antwerp with a team of Alice Kinsella, Jessica Gadirova, Ondine Achampong, Georgia-Mae Fenton, and Ruby Evans.

Heading into selection, it appeared that Becky Downie would have a spot on this year’s team—she joined the first four on the title-winning Euros squad in April—but a migraine-induced 10 on bars and 9.8 on beam in the final trial scuttled those plans and sent her to an alternate position.

Essentially, Kinsella, Gadirova, Achampong, and Fenton are the obvious four that would pretty much cover every event in a team final themselves, so then it’s sort of…can you get anything more out of a fifth spot? Maybe? In that hope, the British team elected to go with Ruby Evans and the possibility of an Amanar for that fifth position.

The attempted vault upgrade mission was the big story of the British trial, with Jessica Gadirova showing a Cheng, and both Alice Kinsella and Ruby Evans going for Amanars. Whether that all actually materializes at worlds will be the major question of podium training and qualification because at the trial, it appears that Evans missed her attempt, while Kinsella scored about the same as she would for her reliable DTY.

Overall, the British team will hope that scores from the final trial were not representative of where this team actually is (if Jessica Gadirova is going 12.350 on floor at worlds, it’s code blue), but using 2023 averages, the team score would look like this:

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Jessica Gadirova	14.233	13.580	13.275	13.546
Alice Kinsella	13.871	13.253	13.086	13.283
Ondine Achampong	14.153	13.440	13.457	12.944
Georgia-Mae Fenton	13.150	13.462	12.922	12.848
Ruby Evans	13.842	12.283	12.411	12.938
	42.257	40.482	39.818	39.773	162.330

Within that picture, the team will certainly identify areas (bars) where they expect improvement in the actual competition at worlds, but even so, a 162 holds up pretty well right now. While the US is currently looking at team scores in the 172s and 173s for their most likely squads based on nationals, 162 is on track compared to everyone else.  

This British team will certainly face challenges at worlds should, for example, Brazil figure out how to stay healthy through an entire competition and hit all their routines at the same time, or should China stay on bars and beam in the team final and not score any 10s, but overall the Brits will like their medal chances right now. 

For reference, this is what the British score would look like if everyone hit their best result of 2023 at the same time:   

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Jessica Gadirova	14.400	14.200	13.900	14.000
Alice Kinsella	14.150	14.250	14.100	13.900
Ondine Achampong	14.350	14.100	14.250	13.350
Georgia-Mae Fenton	13.800	14.300	14.000	13.500
Ruby Evans	14.100	12.300	13.033	13.500
	42.900	42.750	42.350	41.400	169.400

China

Speaking of China, we have a six-member Chinese squad of Qiu Qiyuan, Ou Yushan, Zhang Qingying, Huang Zhuofan, Wu Ran, and Zhou Yaqin—an almost entirely new group with Ou Yushan the only member with world/Olympic experience.

For this team, China has just said, “Vault is stupid and we don’t play that,” electing not to bring a vaulter like Yu Linmin (she’ll be at Asian Games with veterans Tang Xijing and Zhang Jin), instead accepting a low vault score while trying to maximize bars and beam. Which this team can do. Qiu Qiyuan, Zhang Qingying, and Ou Yushan would dominate the beam competition with hits, and Qiu Qiyuan and Huang Zhuofan can both be medal contenders on bars.

That’s why, despite vault, China should still have optimism for a team medal based on this year’s scoring average:

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Ou Yushan	12.970	13.700	14.219	13.493
Qiu Qiyuan	12.705	14.418	13.512	12.746
Zhang Qingying	13.097	12.558	14.203	13.253
Huang Zhuofan		14.450
Zhou Yaqin	12.833	12.483	13.200	12.883
	38.900	42.568	41.934	39.629	163.031

Here, the vault scores are low, floor is pretty conservative/realistic, and Qiu’s beam score is lower than she would get for a hit, and they’re still ahead of GB’s 2023 average.

This isn’t in any way a new story for China. They’re taking a team to worlds with medal-level scoring potential that is also very reliant on getting high scores from the riskiest possible routines to achieve that potential. But it’s there nonetheless.

Meanwhile, when looking at maximum scores in 2023, China comes in about a point behind Great Britain, in contrast to average score where China is ahead. So I guess it’s up to us to play a game of whose maximum score is less realistic.

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Ou Yushan	13.066	14.166	14.366	14.000
Qiu Qiyuan	12.766	15.233	14.900	13.100
Zhang Qingying	13.166	13.400	14.833	13.533
Huang Zhuofan		14.800
Zhou Yaqin	12.900	12.700	13.950	13.433
	39.132	44.199	44.099	40.966	168.396

Japan

The big news out of Japan is the injury to defending beam champion Watanabe Hazuki, which will see her replaced on the worlds team by Hatakeda Chiaki, as Sakaguchi Ayaka moves into the alternate position.

Watanabe would have been counted on for anywhere from two to four events in a team final (remember that time in 2022 when Japan didn’t put her up on beam and then she won the event final?) but because there’s such equivalent scoring potential across this team, putting Hatakeda in Watanabe’s place results in an overall team score drop of only 2 tenths by 2023 average, losing ground on beam while increasing the floor score.

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Miyata Shoko	14.125	12.884	13.200	13.194
Kishi Rina	14.400	12.877	12.911	13.422
Fukasawa Kokoro	13.678	13.190	12.493	12.808
Ashikawa Urara	12.667	11.522	13.700	12.725
Hatakeda Chiaki	13.658	12.733	12.858	12.958
	42.203	38.951	39.811	39.574	160.539

It’s a bigger loss (8 tenths) when we look at the best-of-2023 scores, which reveal the major deficit in the beam scores without the 13.700 that Watanabe has scored this year.

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Miyata Shoko	14.333	13.400	13.800	13.500
Kishi Rina	14.433	13.433	12.966	13.366
Fukasawa Kokoro	13.700	14.100	13.066	13.000
Ashikawa Urara	12.700	11.866	14.166	12.966
Hatakeda Chiaki	13.800	13.100	13.133	13.200
	42.566	40.933	41.099	40.066	164.664

The big issue here arises when we look at which apparatuses Hatakeda’s score would be used on. It’s floor, probably vault, and maybe beam. When you’re looking for someone with those strengths……Sakaguchi Ayaka.

Hatakeda was named the first replacement on this team because she was next best in the all-around standings after the NHK Trophy, but this once again calls into question Japan’s deeply AA-based, deeply early-meet-based selection process because Sakaguchi just had such a good performance at the University Games, winning silver on vault and floor and bronze on beam. Her scores this year would now add about 6 tenths to the average team score compared to Hatakeda, while she would add almost a point to the best team score.

France

We have also have a confirmed six for France: Melanie De Jesus Dos Santos, Marine Boyer, Lorette Charpy, Coline Devillard, Morgane Ossysek, and Djenna Laroui. It’s kind of a different look for this team with no Aline Friess or Carolann Heduit, but it’s nonetheless an almost entirely familiar group save for Djenna Laroui, who won the all-around at nationals this year, as perhaps the only newer face.

The big conundrum right now is the comeback of Lorette Charpy, who has not competed since she won that bars bronze at 2022 Euros and then keeled over onto the mat like a redwood. She is slated to compete exhibition bars on the 16th at the Paris World Cup, which will presumably tell us (and France) where she stands in terms of potential contribution to the team. France would love to have Charpy’s bars back because right now Boyer’s bars would have count, and they have never, ever elected to use Boyer’s bars in a world/Olympic team final before. 

A hit bars from Charpy probably ends up adding more to the team score than a hit floor from Osyssek (also going in exhibition at the world cup), at least as long as you get hits from Laroui like she did at nationals. 

Using 2023 averages (excluding scores from the Top 12 series), you have this team, with Osyssek counting on beam and floor:

	VT	UB	BB	FX
DJDS	14.100	14.125	13.613	13.450
Coline Devillard	13.758	0	12.596	11.600
Marine Boyer	13.417	12.925	13.538	12.816
Morgane Osyssek	13.251	12.125	12.608	12.638
Djenna Laroui	12.873	12.828	11.867	12.311
	41.275	39.878	39.759	38.904	159.816

Using best scores from 2023, you have this team, with Laroui counting on beam and floor and Osyssek on floor rather than Boyer. How all of that holds up after the Paris World Cup will be telling. 

	VT	UB	BB	FX
DJDS	14.100	14.850	14.100	13.450
Coline Devillard	14.400	0	12.900	11.600
Marine Boyer	13.500	13.350	14.450	13.033
Morgane Osyssek	13.400	12.900	13.100	13.367
Djenna Laroui	13.300	13.700	13.200	13.050
	42.000	41.900	41.750	39.867	165.517

Canada

This year’s Canadian team is Ellie Black, Cassie Lee, Rose Woo, Ava Stewart, and Aurelie Tran, with Frederique Sgarbossa acting as alternate. Black, then, will be the only athlete returning from last year’s bronze medal team.

Black, Tran, and Stewart ended up 1-2-3 in the all-around at the August selection event, while Lee competed 3 events and won beam, and Woo finished 2nd on bars and 3rd on beam. That gives Canada pretty much the best available coverage for bars and beam, which should be the strengths of this team, with Black-Lee-Woo-(Stewart if she’s hitting) on beam and Black-Tran-Woo-(Stewart if she’s hitting) on bars.

But now let’s get to vault. This is much less of a vault team for Canada, going without Shallon Olsen (who finished 2nd on vault at the trial), which means it looks like they’ll be counting a Yurchenko full for the team score along with Black and the Y1.5 from Stewart. Without Olsen, the Denelle Pedrick DTY, or that reliable Y1.5 from Spence that proved critical in the team final last year, it’s going to be a journey.

Canada’s 2023 averages shape up like this:

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Ellie Black	14.000	12.942	13.250	12.975
Aurelie Tran	13.259	13.348	12.424	13.010
Rose Woo	13.000	13.358	12.792	11.950
Ava Stewart	13.370	13.040	11.624	12.393
Cassie Lee	12.963	11.842	13.144	12.605
	40.629	39.746	39.186	38.590	158.151

And best-of-the-year marks look like this:

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Ellie Black	14.000	14.400	14.050	13.050
Aurelie Tran	13.500	13.700	13.333	13.433
Rose Woo	13.000	13.600	13.600	11.950
Ava Stewart	13.800	13.800	12.500	13.100
Cassie Lee	13.100	12.366	13.450	13.350
	41.300	41.900	41.100	39.883	164.183

Of particular note in these best-of scores, adding Olsen’s DTY would increase the team score in place of anyone on the team except Ellie Black.

Australia

Australia has named its six as Georgia Godwin, Kate McDonald, Ruby Pass, Breanna Scott, Miella Brown, and Emily Whitehead—the squad tasked with the attainable goal of qualifying a team back to the Olympics.

New senior Ruby Pass, who won the national AA silver this year, has been essential this year in getting Australia much closer to the goal of three usable scores on each event, meaning that in terms of rounding out a team score, Australia is mostly just after a third believable vault. Right now that’s Miella Brown, but we don’t have results from Emily Whitehead for 2023 yet. Whitehead’s normal would put her on the highest-scoring team, probably for both vault and floor. We shall see.

So far this year, Australia has put together an average that is right on par with what Canada is scoring.

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Georgia Godwin	13.889	13.206	13.505	13.528
Kate McDonald		12.960	12.617	12.571
Ruby Pass	13.789	12.877	12.733	12.766
Breanna Scott	13.166	12.666	13.044	12.178
Miella Brown	13.533	11.800	11.583	12.133
	41.211	39.043	39.282	38.865	158.401

With a peak score that would be exceptionally competitive if real.

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Georgia Godwin	14.066	13.700	14.133	13.833
Kate McDonald		14.000	13.833	13.066
Ruby Pass	14.400	14.033	13.766	13.233
Breanna Scott	13.166	12.666	14.133	12.800
Miella Brown	13.533	11.933	11.833	12.533
	41.999	41.733	42.099	40.132	165.963

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Let’s all revisit this with part 2 when we have official teams for the likes of Brazil and Italy. And maybe the US or whatever.