1. Oklahoma – 198.475

The Race for #2: Cal moved back ahead of LSU this week, though it’s still up for grabs as to who will ultimately finish in 2nd. LSU would have to score a minimum of 197.900 at SECs, otherwise the #2 spot is Cal’s. If LSU does get that 197.9 or more, then it’s up to how much Cal increases its own NQS and we’ll be pulling out the calculators (like mine isn’t already out) since the two have almost identical max possible NQSs. Neither Cal nor LSU can be shifted from the 2-3 spots and will be #1 seeds at their respective regionals.

2. Cal – 198.180

Max Possible NQS: 198.300
Possible Ranking Range: 2-3

3. LSU – 198.125

Max Possible NQS: 198.295
Possible Ranking Range: 2-3

4. Florida – 197.905

Max Possible NQS: 198.010
Possible Ranking Range: 4-6

Florida can’t move up higher than 4th but has the edge for the #4 ranking (and #1 seed at the Florida home regional) and would need 197.950 at SECs to clinch it. There’s a very outside chance Florida could drop all the way to 6th, but it’s almost sure that Florida will be in that 4-5 regional.

5. Utah – 197.840

6. Kentucky – 197.810

7. Alabama – 197.760

Max Possible NQS: 197.870
Possible Ranking Range: 5-9

To move up any, Alabama needs 197.775 and then help, but it is possible. Guaranteeing the #7 ranking takes 197.925, and guaranteeing a spot in the top 8 (and #2 regional seeding) requires 197.800.

8. Denver – 197.700

9. Michigan State – 197.615

Max Possible NQS: 197.735
Possible Ranking Range: 8-10

Michigan State has the slight complication of hosting Big Tens. (Presumably because the Big Ten hasn’t yet figured out that you can cheat the system by hosting the conference championship at some other local arena where everyone gets to count it as a road score? Or they’re, like, trying to be fan friendly or some weird concept?) That means MSU can’t get rid of that 197.275 road score and has a bit of a lower max than expected.

The #8 spot is possible depending on Denver’s score. Usually the difference between being #8 and #9 wouldn’t be significant because they go to the same regional, but potentially not so much this year. Right now, with Michigan sitting in 10th and currently having a host conflict with Cal, we would probably see Michigan promoted to 9th and Michigan State dropped to 10th to resolve the host conflict if it stayed this way. So there could be an actual difference between finishing 8th and 9th this year.

But, to ensure finishing at least ranked at #9, MSU will be looking for UCLA to score under 197.575 at Pac-12s, which would confirm that UCLA cannot pass.

10. Michigan – 197.545

Max Possible NQS: 197.610
Possible Ranking Range: 10-12

Michigan cannot rank any higher than 10th (though as noted above, could get swapped into the 9th seed if everything stays the same) and will mostly be at the mercy of UCLA’s score. Michigan and Arkansas also have exactly the same peak, so while Michigan has the edge in currently recorded scores, that could still go either way.

11. UCLA – 197.520

Max Possible NQS: 197.810
Possible Ranking Range: 6-12

UCLA’s 198.550 on Saturday has changed the game in terms of giving UCLA a gigantic peak NQS should that score somehow be repeated in Utah this coming weekend. The most attainable goal for UCLA would be the #10 ranking, which would be locked with 197.575 at Pac-12s, regardless of what Michigan or Arkansas score. That vicinity of score would also put UCLA in contention to catch Michigan State depending on what MSU does.

There’s also a mathematical chance for UCLA to put pressure on teams in the top 8, though we’re talking a big 198 plus help from others for that to start being something to think about.

12. Arkansas – 197.445

Max Possible NQS: 197.610
Possible Ranking Range: 10-14

Arkansas could jump up, though it would take at least 197.650 out of the early session at SECs for that to be a considered possibility. Keeping the #12 ranking would be assured with 197.425.

13. Missouri – 197.420

Max Possible NQS: 197.475
Possible Ranking Range: 12-14

Missouri could swap with Arkansas, though 12 and 13 go to the same regional (and Arkansas has potential host-conflict-movement anyway) so kind of whatever with that. Staving off Auburn would be assured with 197.500.

14. Auburn – 197.315

Max Possible NQS: 197.450
Possible Ranking Range: 12-15

Auburn’s chances to move up would require at least a 197.575. So if that happens, then we start to talk. A seeded position at regionals is already assured, but 197.275 would confirm that Minnesota cannot pass.

The Race for a Seeding: 14 of the 16 seeded spots at regionals are locked up, with two still to be decided. The two highest potential NQSs among the contenders belong to Minnesota and Georgia, with Oregon State close behind, so here are their scenarios:

–If Minnesota scores 197.200 or more, Minnesota clinches a seeding
–If Georgia scores 197.450 or more, Georgia clinches a seeding
–If Oregon State scores 197.225 AND Georgia goes sub-197.075, Oregon State clinches a seeding

Ohio State is currently in 16th place but with a lower peak NQS than those three, so they’ll be looking to max out their own score and root for others not to reach the above goals. Basically, if everyone gets terrible scores, Ohio State clinches a seeding. Otherwise, we get into scenarios like if Ohio State scores 197.350 AND Oregon State goes sub-197.200 AND Georgia goes sub-197.050, then Ohio State clinches a seeding.

Stanford, NC State, Kent State, and Arizona State are also technically still alive in the race for a seeding, though the chances are slimmer and require a lot of things folding in the exact right way on the day, so we’ll see.

15. Minnesota – 197.190

Max Possible NQS: 197.355
Possible Ranking Range: 14-18

16. Ohio State – 197.100

Max Possible NQS: 197.170
Possible Ranking Range: 16-22

17. Oregon State – 197.085

Max Possible NQS: 197.245
Possible Ranking Range: 15-22

18. Georgia – 197.030

Max Possible NQS: 197.270
Possible Ranking Range: 15-22

19. NC State – 196.960

Max Possible NQS: 197.125
Possible Ranking Range: 16-24

20. Stanford – 196.930

Max Possible NQS: 197.205
Possible Ranking Range: 15-25

21. Arizona State – 196.920

Max Possible NQS: 197.100
Possible Ranking Range: 16-25

22. Arizona – 196.885

Max Possible NQS: 196.915
Possible Ranking Range: 22-29

23. Kent State – 196.860

Max Possible NQS: 197.180
Possible Ranking Range: 16-30

24. Penn State – 196.825

Max Possible NQS: 196.900
Possible Ranking Range: 22-30

25. Towson – 196.800

Max Possible NQS: 196.975
Possible Ranking Range: 19-32

26. Nebraska – 196.755

Max Possible NQS: 197.005
Possible Ranking Range: 19-33

27. Washington – 196.735

Max Possible NQS: 196.875
Possible Ranking Range: 23-33

28. Maryland – 196.725

Max Possible NQS: 196.895
Possible Ranking Range: 22-33

29. Clemson – 196.690

Max Possible NQS: 196.940
Possible Ranking Range: 20-33

30. Boise State – 196.655

Max Possible NQS: 196.810
Possible Ranking Range: 25-34

31. Illinois – 196.630

Max Possible NQS: 196.805
Possible Ranking Range: 25-34

32. Southern Utah – 196.585

Max Possible NQS: 196.760
Possible Ranking Range: 26-35

33. San Jose State – 196.555

Max Possible NQS: 196.600
Possible Ranking Range: 32-35

33. BYU – 196.555

Max Possible NQS: 196.665
Possible Ranking Range: 30-35

35. Ball State – 196.520

Max Possible NQS: 196.910
Possible Ranking Range: 22-35

The Race for Regionals: It’s an unusually small group of teams still in limbo about their regionals fate this year with 35 of the 36 spots already locked in and three teams battling for that last spot. Here’s the deal:

—If Iowa State scores 196.700 or better, Iowa State clinches the spot.

—If Iowa State scores 196.375 or better, Iowa is eliminated, though George Washington might still be alive as long as GW has scored at least 196.775.

–If George Washington scores under 196.475, George Washington is eliminated regardless of what the others do.

–If Iowa scores under 196.250, Iowa is eliminated regardless of what the others do.

36. Iowa State – 196.325

Max Possible NQS: 196.515
Possible Ranking Range: 36-38

37. Iowa – 196.305

38. George Washington – 196.145