We officially have the US women’s Olympic squad. The four-woman team will be Simone Biles, Sunisa Lee, Jordan Chiles, and Grace McCallum, and the two individual competitors are Jade Carey and MyKayla Skinner.

Which makes total sense and is logically sound at every turn.

Just kidding, it’s a clown fire, obviously.

So let’s get into it. We always knew it was going to be extremely close for the fourth spot on this team, and it ended up being even closer than that. But if we dive into the actual numbers from Olympic Trials, this is what we see.

Based on each athlete’s best score from trials on each event, we end up with these 3-count team scores

Biles, Lee, Chiles, Skinner: 177.662
Biles, Lee, Chiles, Wong: 177.396
Biles, Lee, Chiles, McCallum: 177.395
Biles, Lee, Chiles, Eaker: 177.329
Biles, Lee, Chiles, Jones: 177.296
Biles, Lee, Chiles, DiCello: 177.262

And based on each athlete’s average score from the two days of trials, we end up with these 3-count team scores

Biles, Lee, Chiles, Skinner: 175.080
Biles, Lee, Chiles, Wong: 174.981
Biles, Lee, Chiles, Eaker: 174.831
Biles, Lee, Chiles, McCallum: 174.730
Biles, Lee, Chiles, Jones: 174.681
Biles, Lee, Chiles, DiCello: 174.647

In both methods, the team with MyKayla Skinner comes out on top, followed by the team with Leanne Wong. The team with McCallum is in third and fourth place respectively.

What we saw at trials was a team of Biles, Lee, and Chiles that didn’t really need any help, but the routine that provided the biggest boost to the score was Skinner’s vault, thanks to her difficulty. That’s why I would have selected Skinner for for the fourth spot. She earned it with her results at trials more than the other contenders.

Now, it is very close and there are absolutely valid reasons to want someone like McCallum (though this argument also extends to Wong and DiCello) on that team instead of Skinner despite Skinner making up the highest-scoring group. Most significantly, McCallum provides more realistic routines on all four pieces. She would be a better Swiss army knife to slot into any and every role should someone get super injured, or someone get “I’m kind of injured but you don’t want to remove me from the team because I can still do bars,” or if you simply want to rest someone in the team final because it’s a long event and you’re going to win anyway.

Continue reading But Why?: Reflections on the US Olympic Team →

As the Olympic Trials approach with the speed of molasses (more than a week?!?!?!), the only thing becoming clearer is that nobody knows what the hell we’re supposed to do about this 4th team spot.

To illustrate that, today’s Score Corner takes a look at the average score across two days of the national championship and how each contender slots into a 3-up, team-score scenario with Biles, Lee, and Chiles already in place.

Every single option ends up within 6 tenths of each other. Fun!

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Simone Biles	15.675	14.725	14.625	14.800
Sunisa Lee	14.350	15.100	14.300	13.725
Jordan Chiles	14.925	14.525	14.000	13.775
MyKayla Skinner	14.950	13.625	12.800	13.375
	45.550	44.350	42.925	42.300	175.125

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Simone Biles	15.675	14.725	14.625	14.800
Sunisa Lee	14.350	15.100	14.300	13.725
Jordan Chiles	14.925	14.525	14.000	13.775
Shilese Jones	14.925	14.350	12.100	12.875
	45.525	44.350	42.925	42.300	175.100

In the event that Biles, Lee, and Chiles produce three compelling scores on bars, beam, and floor, those who can improve upon the Sunisa Lee vault number are going to add the most to the team, which is why we see those Skinner and Jones teams as producing the highest score.

In reality, I would be quite surprised if it ends up working out this way as I expect the ability to contribute a higher floor score, as well as real all-around options as needed, will be valued in selection. But, this is what we have from nationals.

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Simone Biles	15.675	14.725	14.625	14.800
Sunisa Lee	14.350	15.100	14.300	13.725
Jordan Chiles	14.925	14.525	14.000	13.775
Kayla DiCello	14.525	13.225	12.600	14.050
	45.125	44.350	42.925	42.625	175.025

	VT	UB	BB	FX
Simone Biles	15.675	14.725	14.625	14.800
Sunisa Lee	14.350	15.100	14.300	13.725
Jordan Chiles	14.925	14.525	14.000	13.775
Leanne Wong	14.650	13.350	13.175	13.900
	45.250	44.350	42.925	42.475	175.000

The next bunch of teams, with DiCello and Wong, comprises those who can add a little bit on vault and a little bit on floor. In this scenario, that’s not quite as beneficial as those who add a bigger vault number, but in practice this approach may be more treasured for its greater breadth of possible contribution (with Wong also harboring the potential to be able to increase that beam number if she were to, like, hit).

Continue reading The Big Three…and Me? →

Qualification and all-around finals are complete at the Russian Cup, and so even though event finals are still to come, two days of competition provide a clear enough picture to examine where things stand with the Russian team. Or, if you’re Valentina, a clear enough picture to just outright name the team before the end of the competition. Imagine asking Valentina about petition selection procedures. She would put a cigar out on your tooth.

The Russian women are currently facing an even more dramatic version of the Big Three Problem that currently consumes discussion of the US women. Viktoria Listunova, Vladislava Urazova, and Angelina Melnikova are so far out in front of the rest that putting those three up on every event in the Olympic team final would be a completely viable and understandable approach.

At the Russian Cup, it was Melnikova who led after qualification when everyone had some degree of nightmare on beam and Listunova fell both there and on floor. In the all-around final, however, Listunova resolved her life, while Melnikova fell on beam, allowing Listunova to take gold, Urazova silver, and Melnikova bronze. The order at this point is insignificant because all three are locks for the Olympic team, but it will be significant at the Olympics when someone gets Wiebered.

In contrast to the US fourth-spot mess heading into trials, at this point there are pretty much only two viable choices for Russia’s remaining spot: Elena Gerasimova and Lilia Akhaimova. (We had all entertained the potential of Yana Vorona for a moment, but she has not had a nice time at this competition.)

Continue reading The State of the Russian Team Address →

On Saturday at Classic—well, on Friday at podium training—Simone debuted her long-awaited Yurchenko double pike, forcing Sports-Balls across the nation to try to learn what gymnastics words are and say things like, “To put this in perspective, it’s like if a basketball ran the 100 meters without an interception.”

Thankfully, we can move a little bit beyond “gymnastics, boy, I don’t know” and talk about what really matters, that 6.6 D-Score decision. According to Tom Forster, this value came directly from the FIG, so even though it’s technically provisional until the Olympics, it’s pretty likely to stay the same because…the exact same all-powerful TECHNICAL WOMEN will be deciding its value 2 months from now.

As for the value itself, I’ve thought more about it, and here’s where I am in a little bit more detail: It’s low for me. I’ve mentally had this at 6.8 since we heard about it, and I still agree with me. But honestly it’s not as low as I thought they were going to go, and not as egregious a case of undervaluing as the beam dismount from 2019.

The problem with Simone’s double double beam dismount in 2019 being given an H value is that it did not adhere to any kind of recognizable precedent or logic established by previous values of other beam dismounts. On beam, a double tuck dismount is a D. Adding a full twist to that bumps it up three tenths to a G. And then adding another full twist bumps it up…1 tenth? To an H? Any logical progression falls apart pretty quickly, and the FIG’s post hoc explanation of the value as an effort to preserve the safety of gymnasts was fully laughable coming from an organization that, for example, doesn’t allow a touch warmup for event finals or has a checkered history with the various equipment manufacturers selected for various world championships.

Continue reading Simone’s Vault Value – Does It Make Sense? →