Recent History
2017 – 1st
2016 – 1st
2015 – 3rd
2014 – 1st
2013 – 2nd
2012 – 7th
2011 – 3rd
2010 – 2nd

Is it possible to go up from here? We’ll see.

For the two-time defending champions, with three titles in the last four years, the only as-yet-unachieved goal is dynasty status. With another championship this season, Oklahoma would match the standards set by both the recent Florida teams (3 straight titles—2013-2015) and the early 2000s UCLA teams (4 titles in 5 years—2000, 2001, 2003, 2004) and would then be able to set sights on the records of the late 2000s Georgia teams (5 straight titles—2005-2009) and the early 1980s Utah teams (6 straight titles—1981-1986). Things be getting historic ’round here.

The challenge facing the Sooners will be the loss of 7 routines from last season’s final 24. The roster is poised to be able to replace those routines without too much angst, but the lingering question is whether those replacements will result in a slight dip in scoring potential, making Oklahoma more vulnerable to an improving team like Florida.

Vault
Lineup locks
Nichols (9.955), Dowell (9.935), Jackson (9.900), Degouveia (9.830)
Lineup options
Webb (FR), Schoepfer (FR), Showers (-), Marks (9.815), Lehrmann (9.812 in 2016), Catour (-)

Vault was the only event where Oklahoma did not finish ranked #1 in the country last season, and preseason evidence suggests the team will improve there in 2018. The big 3 Yurchenko 1.5s—Nichols, Dowell, and Jackson—all return and will once again do the heavy lifting for what should be weekly 9.900s. Degouveia added a fourth Y1.5 to the slate in the middle of last season, a vault that was typically a little more 9.850 than Oklahoma would prefer, but one that has continued to develop and looks excellent so far in preseason. Expect it to be back.

In 2017, Oklahoma went with fulls in the first two spots. This season, the Sooners are looking to add Webb‘s Omelianchik to the mix for a fifth 10.0 start and are currently working on a Y1.5 for Schoepfer in an effort to achieve Mission Six 10.0s. That may still be a slight reach, at least at the beginning of the year, but we’ll see at least five. Continue reading 2018 Outlook – Oklahoma Sooners →

Recent History
2017 – 3rd
2016 – 4th
2015 – 1st
2014 – 1st
2013 – 1st
2012 – 2nd
2011 – 7th
2010 – 5th

Florida has now gone two whole seasons without a title, which is like eight seasons, which is like a thousand seasons. The 2016-2017 journey was one of relative upheaval, with a new coaching staff and the departure of program-defining stars, excusing such lowly finishes as 3rd and 4th. (Scandal! Outrage!) But to most observers, if there’s going to be a Florida year again in the near future, 2018 is that year.

With all 24 postseason routines from 2017 retained, and two high-profile elite stars joining the program, Florida 2018 has no excuse not to outshine last year’s 3rd-place team was. It’s a title-or-bust season for the Gators.

Vault
Lineup locks
McMurtry (9.950), Slocum (9.945), Boren (9.925), Baker (9.900)
Lineup options
Skaggs (FR), Baumann (FR), Foberg (FR), Hundley (9.850), Chant (9.831), Gowey (9.800), Alexander (9.800), Cheney (9.750)

Among teams contending for the national championship, the goal on vault is a little different. It’s not simply about pulling together some 10.0 starts; it’s about having a whole lineup of 10.0s. That’s the Golden Fleece of current college gymnastics. No team has achieved a final lineup of six 10.0 starts so far in the new start-value era, but a few teams have a shot this year, of which Florida is one.

The core four from last season will return in McMurtry (DTY), Slocum (handspring pike 1/2), Boren (Y1.5), and Baker (Y1.5). For those four, it’s a disappointment when they score under 9.900, meaning that Florida will have realistic 49.5+ goals this year in most meets.

In terms of new routines, Florida is looking to get Skaggs and her very comfortable Y1.5 into the lineup as a fifth 10.0 start. That’s the vault project of greatest importance, and preseason showings from her have been very lineup-worthy.

We’re then left with a mad rush for the 6th spot. Of note, Hundley is attempting to add back the Y1.5 for 2017. It wasn’t competition-ready yet as of mid-December, but we’ll see if that project develops. We also know from their elite days that Foberg and Baumann are capable of 10.0 difficulty. So far, we haven’t seen that (Foberg showed an excellent full at the December intrasquad), but the possibility is there. Chant has a 10.0 start Tsuk 1/1, but she made the lineup with it only sporadically in 2017 for 9.8s, which won’t outscore the Yfull options. Continue reading 2018 Outlook – Florida Gators →

Recent History
2017 – 9th
2016 – 15th
2015 – 15th
2014 – 18th
2013 – 20th
2012 – 23rd
2011 – 17th
2010 – 15th

Expectations are high and hopes higher for Denver in 2018 after the program-best 9th-place finish in 2017. Is the new record already in danger?

This remains a very small roster, so any concerns about not living up to the standard set last season revolve around whether enough depth exists to fill out a good six on each piece. At the same time, a freshman class of three all-arounders has arrived, the strengths of which should address some of the weaknesses from last season, meaning there’s every reason to anticipate improvement in 2018.

Now that Denver has been officially invited to join the cool kids table, there’s no excuse not to stay.

Vault
Lineup locks
Karr (9.930), Brown (FR), Glynn (FR), Sundstrom (FR)
Lineup options
Addison (9.830), Schou (9.830), Chesnok (9.650)

Denver managed to finish quite well on vault last year, but many meets throughout the season featured just five (or five and a half) vaulters—not an ideal setup. Depth will be tested once again this season with exactly six first-choice competitors, but the addition of some new 10.0 starts should increase the potential total.

Karr‘s weekly 9.9 for her Y1.5 will not have to perform as much of the heavy lifting in 2018 because it will have a partner in Brown, who is nearly equally adept at the 1.5. Glynn has added a Tsuk 1/1 to her repertoire, which should complete the vaulting top three and keep things more regularly in the 49.3 zone when partnered with very 9.8able Yfulls from Addison, Schou, and Sundstrom. Continue reading 2018 Outlook – Denver Pioneers →

Recent History
2017 – 5th
2016 – 9th
2015 – 2nd
2014 – 7th
2013 – 9th
2012 – 5th
2011 – 5th
2010 – 6th

Overall, Utah met expectations last season: ranked 5th pretty much the whole year, advanced to Super Six without much drama, then performed OK (though not ideally) in the final for…bum bum bum…5th place. The outlook will be largely similar for 2018.

The losses of Baely Rowe and Sabrina Schwab should ultimately be balanced by the return of Kim Tessen and the introduction of Sydney Soloski, keeping the expected RQS and scoring potential in that low-mid 197 range, though specific events will be a little stronger or weaker than last year depending on the piece.

Vault
Lineup locks
Skinner (9.925), Merrell-Giles (9.855), Lewis (9.850), Tessen (9.783)
Lineup options
Lee (9.840), Roberts (9.785), McNatt, (9.688), Muhaw (9.637), Reinstadtler (9.500), Burch (FR), Soloski (FR)

Utah does appear to have traded up on vault by getting Tessen back, looking at a higher scoring potential than last season with three sure 10.0 starts: Tessen and Merrell-Giles with the 1.5s, Skinner with the DTY. Skinner will continue to lead the scoring with minimum 9.900, and MMG and Tessen will be expected to contribute at least high 9.8s of their own.

Three Yurchenko fulls will complete the lineup, with Lewis‘s the strongest of the bunch. A number of others could realistically join her. Lee is usually good for a viable vault, and Reinstadtler got a top-six spot at the RRP, looking improved over last season. That’s probably your best-case scenario six, with Roberts right there as a usable #7, and then Muhaw and Burch as backup 9.750s as needed.

McNatt is still a question, someone who had an Omelianchik of 9.8ish level last season but who injured herself on that vault at Pac-12s, meaning it may be a little too scary to be worth it this season. It did not make an appearance at the RRP. Continue reading 2018 Outlook – Utah Utes →

Recent History
2017 – 7th
2016 – 8th
2015 – 8th
2014 – 6th
2013 – 14th
2012 – 8th
2011 – 4th
2010 – 7th

As is typical, Nebraska outpaced expectations in 2017 with a 7th-place finish (after a preseason coaches ranking of 12th). Nebraska has bested its preseason ranking in each of the last four seasons, which should make the other teams somewhat nervous this year since Nebraska received a preseason ranking of 9th.

It’s unsurprising that Nebraska tends to be underestimated because the team is basically a national secret. Without the preseason instragram videos, twitter updates, and live streams of the other top schools, Nebraska does not develop the same kind of reputation footprint or expectations, meaning the fans (and the judges) go into seasons much more blind. Nonetheless…

Vault
Lineup locks
Houchin (9.880), Schweihofer (9.830), Crouse (9.810),
Lineup options
Verceles Carr (FR), Epperson (9.790), Williams (9.775), Orel (9.660 in 2016), Roby (FR), Dujakovich (FR), K Hutchinson (FR), T Hutchinson (FR), Curtis (FR)

Nebraska enters the season in solid shape on vault, with two 10.0 starts returning from last season in Houchin and Crouse with their Y1.5s. Most teams in this section of the rankings are looking at one or two 10.0 starts total, so this should keep the Huskers in the front of the vaulting pack, as they typically are. Nebraska will hope to add a third 10.0 start from the freshman Verceles Carr, who competed a 1.5 to moderate success in the 2017 JO season. Even if that vault doesn’t develop, she’s powerful enough on vault that she should be one of the fulls in the lineup. Continue reading 2018 Outlook – Nebraska Cornhuskers →

Recent History
2017 – 6th
2016 – 3rd
2015 – 4th
2014 – 4th
2013 – 3rd
2012 – 1st
2011 – 1st
2010 – 3rd

Somewhat unexpectedly, 2017 turned into Alabama’s worst season since 2008, the result of a sudden poor showing in Super Six for 196.000. Still, Alabama spent the entirety of the 2017 season among the top six teams and looks poised to remain in the top six in 2018, provided the team shows a modicum of health.

As made clear by some depleted intrasquad lineups, which has stoked a mild case of December-panic about the Tide’s chances, the health of some perpetually injured former elites will be the biggest obstacle between Alabama and another successful season.

Vault
Lineup locks
Guerrero (9.880), Desch (9.845)
Lineup options
Dickson (FR), Graber (FR), Armbrecht (9.855), Winston (9.850), Childers (9.840), Guerra (-), Mahoney (-)

Alabama has a very competitive theoretical collection of 10.0 starts this season, one that would keep pace with most schools in the country. Because we haven’t seen…really any of them yet in preseason, however, it’s still a potential lineup rather than a confirmed lineup. The presence (or lack) of some of those 10.0s will make the difference between Alabama being a 49.300 vault team and a 49.4+ vault team.

The Y1.5 from Guerrero is the highest returning vault score and the most likely to make weekly appearances in 2018, which should again be joined by Desch‘s 1.5 at the end of the lineup. Ideally, two freshmen will assist. Dickson showed a DTY as recently as this spring, while Graber showed a high-scoring Y1.5 herself in JO. That would make for a strong four. You’d take that four. Perhaps a little more high-9.8s than 9.950s, but very usable scores. Continue reading 2018 Outlook – Alabama Crimson Tide →