Simone, where art thou?

In the absence of obviousness, this year’s all-around class and assembled helpers may seem a bit of a mess. They’re all so…there. In that spirit, let this be an unsuccessful effort to sort things out and clarify favorites from underdogs using recent scores.

I have taken the top 10 all-around contenders at worlds this year—in my view (and Dawn agrees with me)—and broken their 2017 scores down by event, including the average of the last five scores they received and their range of D scores during that period.

This should provide us with some method of ranking the contenders as well as highlighting which events gymnasts need to take advantage of to get into the medal race.

Let’s begin with vault.

ZZZZZZZZZZ.

I mean…YAY I AM UTTERLY PUMPED.

Vault isn’t the most exciting of events in the all-around this year because, among the most likely medal winners, it’s a flatline of acceptable and normal DTYs where all the best ones should score pretty similarly.

Vault is not going to be the decider. We’ve seen meets this year where basically every DTY got the exact same score, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we’re rehashing that complaint throughout the next week.

Smith’s vault is cleaner than Iordache’s, but Iordache’s tends to be bigger, so 14.4 it is! The Russians fall down the rankings because of inconsistency, but…you’re not going to fall on a DTY at worlds, right? Oh god, of course you are. Continue reading Making Sense of the Women’s All-Around →

In many respects, the first worlds of the quad is the practice worlds. Podium training for the quad to come. There’s no team competition, no qualification consequences, just a chance for a handful of top individuals to get their titles before they get irreparably injured.

For those select few, career-defining major world medals are within reach, but for those outside the top four and a half countries (Romania still counts as half a country because Iordache/Ponor), the first worlds of the quad is about assessing how they might stack up against the rest of the world and their peer-group countries, evaluating the international competitiveness of new gymnasts, and maybe setting some national records in the rankings.

So, by way of a worlds preview, here’s a brief account of all the teams heading to Montreal (as we know them now) and notes on what would constitute a successful and victorious competition for each of those teams.

United States
Ragan Smith, Morgan Hurd, Jade Carey, Ashton Locklear

The US is a victim of its own dominance in that there is no longer any way for the Americans to exceed expectations at a major competition. You either win all the medals, or you are disappointing trash.

But diving deeper, the US will expect Ragan Smith to win the all-around title. At least, she’ll enter the competition as the favorite. It’s not a dominant favorite status as there are certainly those who can catch her (most notably Larisa Iordache), but she’ll start as the expected winner. The US has won the all-around every year since 2010 and won’t abide breaking that streak. It may not be fair (in fact, it isn’t), but anything less than winning the world AA title will be considered a disappointing competition for the US.

On the events, the US will be looking for something in the ballpark of four medals. The US hasn’t won fewer than three event medals since 2003, so while we shouldn’t expect the six medals of the Simone years, there are still some standards to uphold. Jade Carey has been selected in the expectation that she can get a medal on vault and floor, while Ragan Smith will hope to medal on beam and is quite capable of a medal on floor as well. Ashton Locklear is going for bars, but with her current routine she would not be a pre-competition medal favorite. She would need some mistakes from those who are breaking 6 in D score.

As for Morgan Hurd, the issue throughout the selection process was that she’s not a SHE’S GOING TO WIN A MEDAL ON THIS EVENT gymnast, meaning that her best hope will probably be the all-around. As of now, I see Hurd’s position in the international AA picture as similar to that of Aly Raisman’s early in her senior career, where she’s sort of in the 3-6 zone (alongside the Russians and hopefully a few of LTT, Murakami, and Andrade) and could get a medal if things fall right but could also finish heartbreakingly 4th.

This year, Hurd’s most competitive single event has been floor, where she can record a medal-level score. Her biggest floor obstacle is that she’s the third-best floor worker on the US team and may need some help not to get two-per-countried. Hurd is also quite capable of a very strong score on beam, especially now that it appears she has added back her full-in—a four-tenth boost in D that can help account for why she moved ahead of her AA peers at selection. Her 2017 hit record on beam being what it is, though, I’d consider a good finish on beam for Hurd a bonus rather than an expectation.

Russia
Elena Eremina, Angelina Melnikova, Maria Paseka, Anastasia Ilyankova

After a couple potential dramas died down regarding a potential injury to Ilyankova and the [GIF of car falling into pond] that is Paseka’s 2017 vaulting, we’re back to the expected Russian team.

We know not to take giant Russian Cup scores to mean anything, but Eremina and Melnikova are nonetheless competitive enough in the all-around to qualify into the top-6 group. A medal for one of them would certainly make this a victorious competition. Russia has a successful recent medal record in the all-around, though that record has been a two-woman performance. Recall that the last Russian to medal in the all-around not named Mustafina or Komova was named Khorkina. Russia absolutely does not want to start going all Romania and having to rely exclusively on Mustafina coming back again and again to win medals. An all-around medal from one of the newer ones would be refreshing.

I would say they’re “hoping” for a medal in the AA, but it’s unclear whether Valentina is happier when Russia wins medals or when she can run to the press and complain about Russia being unfairly robbed because being victimized for being white or whatever.

On the events, we’ll say 2-3 medals would be a good haul. At least two is a must, three or more would be great. Paseka is here because of her medal potential on vault. She has the difficulty to win the title even when her form is really Bee Farm, but then again ALL THE FALLING. We’ll see. On bars, it’s Russia, so at least one of Eremina and Ilyankova better win a medal otherwise Mustafina is going to crawl out of her birthing hut, throw a placenta at them, and instantly improvise a routine that’s a million times better.

Another possibility will be Melnikova getting into the medals on floor. She is European champion, but a medal is a tougher prospect now when asked to go against the Americans and Japanese. Then again, it’s a relatively weak field, so she’s not all that far down the depth chart. On beam, I have no expectations for medals because Russia. The capability is there of course, and it would be a disappointing beam final without any Russians, but also Russia.

China
Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Luo Huan, Fan Yilin

Because of only being able to use three people on each event, China has elected to go with Liu and Luo in the AA, instead of Liu and Wang (their two strongest all-arounders). This is a strategy to maximize their opportunities on bars and beam, which is a giant neon sign pointing us to where China views its medal hopes. If Wang were to do the AA, only one of Luo or Fan would be able to go on UB, and they want multiple legit medal contenders performing there to guard against a qualification mistake.

Bars is not the extend of China’s medal opportunities, however. Liu Tingting should be in the mix for an AA medal. Her obstacle will be low difficulty on floor, as well as occasional issues with the DTY, but she can make up for that with big scores on bars and beam to keep herself squarely in the top-6 group. China has not managed to win an all-around medal since 2011, so breaking that streak will be a goal this quad. When looking for ways to make this a victorious worlds, getting LTT into the AA medals would certainly do it.

China’s most likely event medal would come from Fan Yilin on bars, though they’ll expect a couple more than that. Like Russia, 2-3 is the necessary result. Beyond Fan, look for Liu Tingting’s delightful and code-savvy beam routine as a strong possibility, and Wang Yan’s chances on both vault and floor. She’s among the five or six gymnasts with a shot on vault, and her high-13s on floor will be in the mix. Those are all realistic possibilities, at least for Shang Chunsong-legacy 4th-place finishes if nothing else. Luo Huan is very capable of getting into the finals on both bars and beam and being lovely, though shrugging off her heartbreaker destiny and getting into the medals feels like a dream.

Japan
Mai Murakami, Asuka Teramoto, Sae Miyakawa, Aiko Sugihara

Everyone’s favorite up-and-coming team is far from a constant on the medal stand, so for Japan, winning any medal would make this event a victory. Tsurumi’s 2009 medals are still their only recent hardware, making their status very different from that of the US, Russia, and China, who need to win many and multiple medals to make the event a success. Japan just needs something to take home.

At the same time, Japan is scoring well enough these days that we should begin expecting that medal, and there are several realistic possibilities on this team. Sae Miyakawa absolutely has the vaults and floor difficulty to medal on either piece, the main worry there being how she sometimes forgets what gymnastics is the moment she leaves Japan. She’s still yet to come through at the international level. It’s Mai Murakami’s floor routine, however, that looks like the most realistic medal for Japan. It’s tremendous, and it would be about time.

In the AA, Murakami is turning herself into more and more of a legitimate threat, especially if that Amanar exists. She may not be quite there yet, but I’d certainly keep her toward the top of the conversation. A good day from her can rival most everyone else in the meet. Teramoto should be Japan’s second AAer, and as usual will be lovely and finish 9th. And then finish like 10th on beam with the most secure routine. Basically every time. Her best-ever AA finish is 8th, so beating that would be a victory for her. Continue reading Nation-by-Nation World Championship Preview →

USA Gymnastics has just tweetnounced that the worlds team for 2017 is Ragan Smith, Jade Carey, Ashton Locklear, and Morgan Hurd.

So hmmmmmmmmm.

This was the rare year (among recent years) that we knew we were going to see a surprise no matter what because the second AA spot was so up for grabs. No clear option presented itself after the McCusker withdrawal.

BUT, it turns out that tonight’s big winner is Morgan Hurd, beating out Jordan Chiles and Trinity Thomas for the second all-around spot on the team. In the last post about team permutations, I noted that Hurd was close enough to the others to make it conceivable that she could beat both Chiles and Thomas at the selection camp. I assume that’s what must have happened for her to get the second AA spot since she was clearly behind Chiles and Thomas at nationals. She was still close enough that if she was the one who hit at camp…the choice makes sense.

As we learned from the videos (videos! From selection camp!), Thomas did not upgrade all the way to a DTY—put it on your Christmas list—still stepping up to the 1.5, though. That would have provided her with some lift in scoring potential, but not as much as she may have needed. Also, this is completely speculative, but while we got partial videos of everyone from the selection, Thomas’s routines were…more partial than those for the other major AAers. It could indicate errors that were taken out. That would make me more comfortable with the Thomas snub, if she totally botched selection. Otherwise, it is a snub, no two ways about it.

Chiles, meanwhile, has been named the alternate. I do still believe that Chiles has the higher peak scoring potential than Hurd when she hits because of her vault, but it’s close enough that just a few wobbles here and there would flip it, and if that’s what happened, then Hurd can very easily make sense as your AA option.

The thing is, however, that Hurd could show up at worlds, hit in the AA final, get a mid to high 56, and still not necessarily medal. She’s going to be in the hunt and a good contender, certainly, but it’s not a typical US-style sure thing.

That was going to be the case no matter who the US selected for that second AA position, but it’s something to get mentally accustomed to. Continue reading The 2017 US Worlds Team →