Olympic Team Rankings

Using every athlete’s average score on each event from all competitions in 2021, the 12 national teams in the women’s competition at the Olympics are given a team total based on how the four gymnasts would do in a 3-count competition.

1. UNITED STATES – 173.351
Simone Biles 15.663 14.217 14.578 14.763
Sunisa Lee 14.425 14.838 14.227 13.523
Jordan Chiles 14.921 14.430 14.140 13.552
Grace McCallum 14.580 13.447 13.986 13.413
173.351 45.164 (1)
43.395 (2)
42.954 (2)
41.838 (1)
Unsurprisingly, the US boasts a dominant total with an advantage of around four points over the closest teams. The US will also hope for more on floor than the average scores indicate since Chiles is capable of a stronger number—as well as something a bit higher on bars from Biles, who had a few issues this year to bring down her average there. Given these numbers, vault is the only score that we would see McCallum contribute.
2. CHINA – 169.448
Lu Yufei 13.691 14.106 14.493 14.026
Zhang Jin 14.316 13.616 14.646 13.753
Tang Xijing 13.458 14.540 14.646 13.600
Ou Yushan 13.478 14.042 14.425 13.711
169.448 41.485 (9)
42.688 (3)
43.785 (1)
41.490 (3)
Things are extremely close between China and Russia for second right now, but China will hope its secret weapon in that regard is vault. These average vault scores don’t really reflect a hit DTY for Ou Yushan or the DTT that Lu Yufei added at the second test because they haven’t been doing those vaults most of the year. China will expect to be much more competitive there. In fact, the justification for its team selection is dependent on it.
3. RUSSIA – 169.286
Angelina Melnikova 14.592 14.462 12.914 14.177
Vladislava Urazova 14.460 14.808 13.124 13.700
Viktoria Listunova 14.352 14.629 13.625 13.648
Elena Gerasimova 13.320 13.544 13.709 12.722
169.286 43.404 (3)
43.899 (1)
40.458 (3)
41.525 (2)
While China may be hoping its secret weapon is vault, Russia will hope that its very, very secret weapon is actually hitting beam routines. Because everyone has been falling on every single beam routine this year, Russia’s average scores there pretty much assume an entire rotation of falls, or at least 2 falls. Even a couple beam hits in real life could drastically increase Russia’s score.   
4. JAPAN – 165.747
Murakami Mai 14.713 13.744 13.520 14.255
Hatakeda Hitomi 14.100 14.133 13.260 13.433
Hiraiwa Yuna 14.244 13.067 13.286 13.316
Sugihara Aiko 14.600 12.722 13.266 13.486
165.747 43.557 (2)
40.944 (6)
40.072 (4)
41.174 (4)
At this point, the host country has established itself as the most compelling challenger should one of the medal favorites have a meltdown in the team final. Murakami’s huge scoring potential can carry Japan a long way, and there aren’t too many holes in this group, save for that third bars score, which could cause some issues.
5. GREAT BRITAIN – 163.170
Jessica Gadirova 14.571 13.400 13.092 14.001
Jennifer Gadirova 13.925 12.483 13.308 13.463
Alice Kinsella 14.088 13.876 12.909 12.908
Amelie Morgan 13.569 13.603 12.935 12.817
163.170 42.584 (7)
40.879 (8)
39.335 (7)
40.372 (5)
5th in the team competition would be a very strong result for Great Britain and would match the finish from the last Olympics, though the 6-point margin between GB and Russia—and the 8th-place ranking on bars—doesn’t exactly reinforce the reasoning that leaving Becky Downie off the team was in service of a team medal. Jennifer Gadirova continuing to improve since the final trial and getting closer to her 2020 American Cup level would be of tremendous help in getting those vault and floor scores closer to Japan.
6. ITALY – 162.260
Martina Maggio 14.293 13.611 13.281 12.980
Asia D’Amato 14.400 13.700 12.600 12.850
Vanessa Ferrari 14.428 13.608 12.992 13.450
Alice D’Amato 14.360 13.495 12.513 12.300
162.260 43.188 (4)
40.919 (7)
38.873 (10)
39.280 (6)
Giorgia Villa has been removed from the Italian team following her injury at last weekend’s national championship. She is replaced by Vanessa Ferrari, who is promoted to the main team, while Lara Mori will replace Vanessa Ferrari as the +1 because of her 2nd-place finish on floor in the apparatus world cups. This changes the team average by a grand total of .003 because while the scores drop on bars and beam, Ferrari’s score is still counting on every event, and the total rises dramatically on floor.
7. FRANCE – 161.712
De Jesus Dos Santos 13.700 13.975 13.564 13.625
Carolann Heduit 14.080 12.964 12.973 12.773
Marine Boyer 13.810 12.954 12.719 12.679
Aline Friess 14.800 13.750 12.488 12.625
161.712 42.690 (5)
40.689 (9)
39.526 (6)
39.077 (9)
France has the potential to be a lot better than this average score, but it’s dependent on the team being not just Melanie. Most importantly, Heduit needs to bring a hit on bars and Boyer would need to get beam going. Boyer has a lot of misses on beam this year, and she’ll need to arrive in Tokyo competing like the 2016 4th-place beam finisher for France to meet its team score potential. At times this quad, France has looked like the 4th-best team in the world, though that was also with Charpy.
8. CANADA – 161.119
Ellie Black 14.440 14.070 14.070 12.980
Ava Stewart 13.580 13.940 13.430 12.910
Shallon Olsen 14.413 11.500 12.183 12.100
Brooklyn Moors 13.750 10.600 12.383 13.233
161.119 42.603 (6)
39.510 (10)
39.883 (5)
39.123 (8)
Like many of the countries, Canada has a secret weapon for improving on these average scores, which in this case is called not counting an 11 on bars. This Canadian squad is certainly capable of advancing to the team final, but it’s going to be dependent on Olsen and Moors bringing countable scores on their “other” events. Olsen is there for vault and Moors is there for floor, but team success will hinge on at least one of them bringing a bars and a beam as well.
9. BELGIUM – 160.379
Nina Derwael 13.350 14.817 13.565 13.483
Jutta Verkest 13.403 12.562 12.063 12.715
Maellyse Brassart 14.000 13.375 13.138 12.450
Lisa Vaelen 13.733 12.775 12.350 13.025
160.379 41.136 (10)
40.967 (5)
39.053 (9)
39.223 (7)
Belgium has placed in the 10-12 range as a team every single time over the last two quads, and odds are on that streak continuing in Tokyo, though Belgium does currently rank 9th by average because there’s no disaster score on this slate. Still, Belgium probably is going to be left counting a 12 on most events, which will make it tough to advance to the team final. 
10. GERMANY – 158.676
Kim Bui 13.519 13.840 12.203 13.167
Elisabeth Seitz 13.611 14.157 12.049 12.910
Pauline Schäfer 13.500 13.388 13.150 12.900
Sarah Voss 13.604 12.771 12.227 12.773
158.676 40.734 (11)
41.385 (4)
37.580 (11)
38.977 (10)
Germany will expect to be able to ramp up the vault and beam scores from Voss, the two events she’s on this team to contribute, which would improve the team total, perhaps by a couple points. Having to count a beam score from either Seitz or Bui does, however, limit how high this team can go and will make Germany an outsider in the team final race.
11. NETHERLANDS – 158.332
Eythora Thorsdottir 14.200 13.379 12.775 13.175
Sanne Wevers 0.000 10.554 13.663 0.000
Lieke Wevers 13.565 13.168 12.917 12.755
Vera Van Pol 14.233 12.935 11.647 11.567
158.332 41.998 (8)
39.482 (11)
39.355 (8)
37.497 (12)
A flurry of falls at trials this year did a number on the Dutch averages, but there are some obvious places where this total can improve. The Netherlands will expect a countable score from Sanne Wevers on bars, even if it means chilling on the composition, and Vera Van Pol is going to have to reinforce her selection over Elze Geurts by delivering a strong floor number. Also beam. With Thorsdottir and the Weverses, that should be one of the best rotations in the world. If the Netherlands is actually ranking 8th on beam, this team isn’t advancing.
12. SPAIN – 155.033
Roxana Popa 13.600 12.650 11.800 13.238
Alba Petisco 13.566 12.650 12.300 12.025
Laura Bechdeju 13.566 13.275 12.400 12.425
Marina Gonzalez 13.366 12.675 12.713 12.625
155.033 40.732 (12)
38.600 (12)
37.413 (12)
38.288 (11)
Getting here was the victory, a development no one saw coming with teams like Brazil also in the mix. Given the injuries to Perez and Rodriguez that are keeping them off this squad, there’s really not a clear path for Spain out of 12th place.

19 thoughts on “Olympic Team Rankings”

  1. Looking at the US numbers, I simply cannot see where Grace could possibly fit in on bars, beam, or floor. Theoretically, she can bring 14s on floor, but so can the other 3. Maybe beam will get consistent enough for her to go there, but do you really want to sit Chiles out there when she’s hit every beam routine at every competition? The more and more I look at McCallum’s inclusion on this team, the more I scratch my head. I truly hope for her sake she can justify her place on the team by contributing more than an average DTY in the team final.

    China seems primed for silver, but that will rely on their gymnasts not to lose vaults between now and the Olympics and for them to go 6/6 on their critical bars and beam routines.

    The GB team continues to bemuse me. There is no medal potential in sight except for Jessica Gadirova’s floor.

    The final looks like it will be US 1 and China/Russia battling for 2nd and 3rd. It will take a bad day from one of them plus a best-ever day from Japan for things to be shaken up. Pretty much the silver/bronze battle will be the only interesting thing unless there’s a major development.

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    1. Chiles while consistent has gotten high E scores domestically. She likely will at Olympics also given the USA leotard, but it is still a question mark.
      I think McCallum at full difficulty and at peak on bars is a stronger score there than Chiles and her average on this event and floor are low due to counting falls on both events at Nationals while she was still coming back from her hand injury.
      We also have to see what Jordan’s mindset is at the Olympics given her mother will be headed to jail for a year. Hopefully she continues her hit streak.

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      1. While the news about Chiles’ mom is freshly public, presumably Jordan has been aware. I wouldn’t necessarily expect any fresh performance impacts.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. Since she got the punishment in last November, I’m sure Jordan was already aware so I don’t think it will affect her that much. However, I don’t know exactly when is she heading to jail but I hope she can watch her daughter compete before she goes…

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    2. Grace has potential to contribute a lot more. She’s capable of outscoring Jordan on everything but VT, which is better than what Suni would bring there. We really don’t know what the line up will be, because she’s been so inconsistent this year, at both worlds, not to mention how Jordan might fare.

      We have the depth to have an ‘alternate’ on the 4 person team and that’s ultimately what she is, bringing possibly 0.3ish on VT or a lot more if something happens to any of the other athletes last minute. Tough break for Riley, team medal for MyKayla, the alternates and total medal count potential, but it was their decision to make.

      I don’t expect anything surprising for the team podium (I’d assume USA>Russia>China), but I’m sooo looking forward to individual events and expect a lot of shocks there.

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      1. Capable me nothing unless you can actually deliver it. She hasn’t delivered it all season. That’s why her numbers are so low.

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    3. Everyone will just say Grace will improve, she was injured, and she has higher peak scores. They like Tom ignore the fact she has not hit all season and will most likely only be used on vault in the team final. It’s a complete waste of a spot.

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      1. I would not call her night 2 floor a hit. That was more than an OOB. She almost fell on her butt. She also almost fell on beam night 1.

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      2. But she didn’t. Many people ‘almost fall’, quite a few fall but she didn’t and she was rewarded with a top-4 finish.

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      3. Still she did her job and finished 4th at Trials. She beat Skinner who was in 5th on every event but vault. She has improved gradually from her hand injury. She is a proven competitor on the international stage.

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      4. Grace’s only international experience has been on vault, bars, and floor which includes a disaster on her only team final bars routine. And that was when she was at peak health. Nothing about her 2021 performance inspires confidence that she’ll be able to contribute anything more than one or two tenths on vault (and I even thought Suni’s trials vaults were equal to Grace’s.)

        I would have absolutely zero issues with Grace being considered the “built-in alternate” if she had shown any level of consistency this year. However, she didn’t demonstrate that consistency and therefore can’t be seen as usable on any event based on those performances. Now, I absolutely hope she continues improving between now and Tokyo, but the other 3 team members have the same amount of time to improve and become more consistent themselves. I don’t really buy the reasoning that Grace is somehow going to leapfrog Jordan and Suni on several events and make 3 events in the team final.

        Skinner didn’t show any consistency on bars, beam, or floor either. However, her vault performance alone was enough to make her the highest scoring option. She basically would have had the same role as Gabby in 2016 where she was needed for a near-guaranteed high score on a single event. That’s where Skinner makes a clear argument for her inclusion. Grace’s argument of consistency and backup scores is simply not there right now.

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  2. I wonder if China if going to rest Ou Yushan on beam for the Team Final given how strong the other athletes are on the event and their new focus on consistency. If they do, her justification for the team is just floor which is shaky as well.

    It would be hilarious if the US team just did Biles, Chiles, Lee for all 4 events on the team final (and possible if Suni improves vault a tiny bit, which she might do for the AA anyway…would Grace still get a medal if that happened???)

    I do hope Russia hits beam so there’s a real contest for silver as I think they’re too strong to fall out of the podium like China in 2019 even if there’s 3 falls, though a medal for Japan at their home Olympics would really be something.

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    1. Yes, McCallum would still get a team medal as she would have competed in qualifications. Multiple US athletes did not compete in team finals and received a team medal.
      2003- Kupets
      2004- McCool
      2006- Kelley, Priess
      2007- Hong
      2008- Peszek
      2011- Sacramone
      2015- Dowell

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    2. Ou Yushan’s justification is being THE best gymnast in China and possibly in the world aside from Simone. What planet are you living on? Her floor isn’t shaky, except how she shakes everyone to their core with her talent. She has a DTY, which is very important for China, and she can do a good Bar routine too. Even if they do decide to “rest” her Best-in-the-World routine on Beam, she still contributes majorly on the other 3 events. You need to collect yourself.

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      1. I love Ou and her talent is undeniable but with China’s focus on consistency to avoid another 2019 team final she doesn’t fit that picture. Her DTY is great but they have another DTY and two DTT on the team already, her bars is fine but that’s definitely not why she was picked as China has huge depth on that event (fell on it during trials too), and she went 1/2 on floor during nationals and didn’t complete it at all during their Olympic trials.

        If she hit all her routines she could walk away from Tokyo being the second most decorated gymnast but she’ll need to hit. It only took Liu Ting Ting having a meltdown to knock China off the podium in 2019 and it could happen again with Ou so I’m a little concerned.

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      2. They don’t have another DTY on the team already, Tang Xijing hasn’t done it in competition all year. Even if she does have it back just in time for the Olympics, it will most likely score lower. Anyway, I don’t know what we are even talking about anymore, but Ou Yushan has some words for you:

        Get your fuckin’ hands up
        Get on out of your seats
        All eyes on me, all eyes on me

        Are you feeling nervous?
        Are you having fun?
        Don’t overthink this, look in my eye
        Don’t be scared, don’t be shy

        Heads down now, pray for me
        Come on, heads down, pray for me
        We’re goin’ to go where everybody knows
        Everybody knows, I’m the champion

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      3. AAAAND one of the trolls is back. I didn’t think it would be long…
        You never knew what you were talking about *and* you need to collect your rude, ignorant, ugly little ass the hell out of here. This is a better place without you and it needs to stay that way.

        Liked by 1 person

  3. Brazil would get just behind Italy considering 2021 competitions (pan ams, doha wc) with a team that includes Rebeca, Lorrane and new seniors Christal Bezerra and Julia Soares. Imagine what place they would get with Flavia Saraiva and Jade Barbosa.

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