Using every athlete’s average score on each event from all competitions in 2021, the 12 national teams in the women’s competition at the Olympics are given a team total based on how the four gymnasts would do in a 3-count competition.
| 1. UNITED STATES – 173.351
|Unsurprisingly, the US boasts a dominant total with an advantage of around four points over the closest teams. The US will also hope for more on floor than the average scores indicate since Chiles is capable of a stronger number—as well as something a bit higher on bars from Biles, who had a few issues this year to bring down her average there. Given these numbers, vault is the only score that we would see McCallum contribute.
| 2. CHINA – 169.448
|Things are extremely close between China and Russia for second right now, but China will hope its secret weapon in that regard is vault. These average vault scores don’t really reflect a hit DTY for Ou Yushan or the DTT that Lu Yufei added at the second test because they haven’t been doing those vaults most of the year. China will expect to be much more competitive there. In fact, the justification for its team selection is dependent on it.
| 3. RUSSIA – 169.286
|While China may be hoping its secret weapon is vault, Russia will hope that its very, very secret weapon is actually hitting beam routines. Because everyone has been falling on every single beam routine this year, Russia’s average scores there pretty much assume an entire rotation of falls, or at least 2 falls. Even a couple beam hits in real life could drastically increase Russia’s score.|
| 4. JAPAN – 165.747
|At this point, the host country has established itself as the most compelling challenger should one of the medal favorites have a meltdown in the team final. Murakami’s huge scoring potential can carry Japan a long way, and there aren’t too many holes in this group, save for that third bars score, which could cause some issues.|
|5. GREAT BRITAIN – 163.170
|5th in the team competition would be a very strong result for Great Britain and would match the finish from the last Olympics, though the 6-point margin between GB and Russia—and the 8th-place ranking on bars—doesn’t exactly reinforce the reasoning that leaving Becky Downie off the team was in service of a team medal. Jennifer Gadirova continuing to improve since the final trial and getting closer to her 2020 American Cup level would be of tremendous help in getting those vault and floor scores closer to Japan.
|6. ITALY – 162.260
|Giorgia Villa has been removed from the Italian team following her injury at last weekend’s national championship. She is replaced by Vanessa Ferrari, who is promoted to the main team, while Lara Mori will replace Vanessa Ferrari as the +1 because of her 2nd-place finish on floor in the apparatus world cups. This changes the team average by a grand total of .003 because while the scores drop on bars and beam, Ferrari’s score is still counting on every event, and the total rises dramatically on floor.
|7. FRANCE – 161.712
|De Jesus Dos Santos||13.700||13.975||13.564||13.625|
|France has the potential to be a lot better than this average score, but it’s dependent on the team being not just Melanie. Most importantly, Heduit needs to bring a hit on bars and Boyer would need to get beam going. Boyer has a lot of misses on beam this year, and she’ll need to arrive in Tokyo competing like the 2016 4th-place beam finisher for France to meet its team score potential. At times this quad, France has looked like the 4th-best team in the world, though that was also with Charpy.|
| 8. CANADA – 161.119
|Like many of the countries, Canada has a secret weapon for improving on these average scores, which in this case is called not counting an 11 on bars. This Canadian squad is certainly capable of advancing to the team final, but it’s going to be dependent on Olsen and Moors bringing countable scores on their “other” events. Olsen is there for vault and Moors is there for floor, but team success will hinge on at least one of them bringing a bars and a beam as well.|
|9. BELGIUM – 160.379
|Belgium has placed in the 10-12 range as a team every single time over the last two quads, and odds are on that streak continuing in Tokyo, though Belgium does currently rank 9th by average because there’s no disaster score on this slate. Still, Belgium probably is going to be left counting a 12 on most events, which will make it tough to advance to the team final.|
| 10. GERMANY – 158.676
|Germany will expect to be able to ramp up the vault and beam scores from Voss, the two events she’s on this team to contribute, which would improve the team total, perhaps by a couple points. Having to count a beam score from either Seitz or Bui does, however, limit how high this team can go and will make Germany an outsider in the team final race.|
|11. NETHERLANDS – 158.332
|Vera Van Pol||14.233||12.935||11.647||11.567|
|A flurry of falls at trials this year did a number on the Dutch averages, but there are some obvious places where this total can improve. The Netherlands will expect a countable score from Sanne Wevers on bars, even if it means chilling on the composition, and Vera Van Pol is going to have to reinforce her selection over Elze Geurts by delivering a strong floor number. Also beam. With Thorsdottir and the Weverses, that should be one of the best rotations in the world. If the Netherlands is actually ranking 8th on beam, this team isn’t advancing.|
|12. SPAIN – 155.033
|Getting here was the victory, a development no one saw coming with teams like Brazil also in the mix. Given the injuries to Perez and Rodriguez that are keeping them off this squad, there’s really not a clear path for Spain out of 12th place.|