World Championships

The State of the Worlds Teams – Part 2

28 Comments

Checking in with a few more teams that have been named since the last edition with GB, China, France, Japan, Australia, Canada.

United States

We officially have the US team. Last night, the women’s program decided they hate floor tenths and demoted Kailya Lincoln to the Pan Am Games squad, but went with the next-highest-scoring team of five athletes in Simone Biles, Shilese Jones, Skye Blakely, Leanne Wong, and Joscelyn Roberson.

This squad currently enjoys an advantage of about 7 points over the next-closest team based on 2023 averages:

VTUBBBFX
Simone Biles15.12513.85014.61014.850
Shilese Jones14.30014.53814.06313.883
Skye Blakely14.17514.02914.03812.517
Leanne Wong14.22513.90013.44013.513
Joscelyn Roberson14.22812.00013.31113.789
43.65342.46742.71142.522171.353

Around the same advantage exists over the rest of the countries when we look at the 2023 peak numbers for each team member:

VTUBBBFX
Simone Biles15.70014.35014.90015.400
Shilese Jones14.40015.00014.35014.100
Skye Blakely14.35014.70014.50012.900
Leanne Wong14.45014.00013.70014.000
Joscelyn Roberson14.65013.05014.30014.150
44.80044.05043.75043.650176.250

So what I’m saying is the US looks like 7-point favorites to retain a team title that they won by 3 points last year without Simone. Sounds about right.

Italy

OK, enough of the boring stuff. Now let’s get into what on earth is going on with Italy.

On the one hand, everyone is broken. Now, in addition to the injuries to Asia D’Amato and Martina Maggio, Giorgia Villa has also withdrawn from worlds, while team member Angela Andreoli has been limited to not performing floor because of her own injury issues.

I’m starting to think that the witch who appeared in a cloud of smoke and offered Enrico Casella a team medal in 2019 wasn’t on the up-and-up after all. Did he even ask whether the elixir that created a generation of gymnasts who perform with the unmatched splendor of a thousand falcons came with the loophole that they had only three total legs to share among them?

Yet, somehow, the scores are still theoretically there. Even excluding Serie A results, this team average really holds up compared to the non-US countries:

VTUBBBFX
Alice D’Amato14.03314.69213.07913.451
Manila Esposito13.65013.63913.60513.174
Angela Andreoli13.33313.03813.55012.900
Arianna Belardelli13.58312.77812.00012.814
Elisa Iorio13.32514.34213.48313.075
41.26642.67340.63839.700164.277

There’s absolutely no bars safety net on this team, there are definitely holes (chasms? abysses?) in this floor lineup, and they have to put a significant workload on Iorio—all of which is to say these scores may very well be a mirage. But, if Alice D’Amato and Manila Esposito bring the level of gymnastics they performed at the national championship a couple weeks ago, this team still has massive scoring potential.

Going by 2023 highs, Italy also current sits 2nd in the standings behind the US:

VTUBBBFX
Alice D’Amato14.30015.20013.75013.566
Manila Esposito13.80014.50014.55014.150
Angela Andreoli13.55013.65013.80013.400
Arianna Belardelli13.75012.95013.10013.500
Elisa Iorio13.35014.75013.70013.200
41.85044.45042.10041.216169.616

Brazil

Brazil has gone with the expected six of Rebeca Andrade, Flavia Saraiva, Jade Barbosa, Julia Soares, Lorrane Oliveira, and Carolyne Pedro, and while they have not yet defined an alternate, the general assumption based on the scores and the everything is that the alternate role will go to Pedro.

So, now, how does this team shape up against the other medal contenders? Using average, the Brazilian team scores like this (using Andrade’s floor from 2022 since she hasn’t done floor this year):

VTUBBBFX
Rebeca Andrade14.55014.80414.31714.033
Flavia Saraiva13.21712.55713.45813.250
Jade Barbosa12.98412.58612.80013.513
Julia Soares12.72912.34313.01013.240
Lorrane Oliveira12.46713.36612.38912.589
40.75140.75640.78540.765163.088

This 163.088 team average also holds up well, staying a touch ahead of China’s 163.031, and ahead of the 162.330 for Great Britain. What Brazil will mostly enjoy about this picture is that—as was the case with Great Britain—this definitely understates the scoring potential of several routines in there (for example, Saraiva scored 14.200 on floor at worlds last year), and a good hit day would score better than this.

What this score definitely tells us is that Brazil as team medalists in 2023 is far from a crazy idea. They’re missing the track record that the GB team has (Olympic bronze, then world silver), but they have the gymnastics to make a realistic case as the second best team at worlds on talent.

And then for best score of the year (so again, best floor of 2022 for Andrade):

VTUBBBFX
Rebeca Andrade14.63315.20014.76714.400
Flavia Saraiva13.30013.33313.93313.300
Jade Barbosa13.20013.46713.06713.833
Julia Soares13.10012.70013.76713.733
Lorrane Oliveira12.96713.86713.63313.200
41.13342.53442.46741.966168.100

Netherlands

The Dutch team is official as well following two trial events, with a five of Naomi Visser, Eythora Thorsdottir, Vera Van Pol, Sanna Veerman, and Sanne Wevers, joined by Tisha Volleman as the traveling alternate, while Elze Geurts joins Kaliya Lincoln on the Team of Betrayals.

This Dutch team has been scoring pretty well this year and should be considered a favorite for Olympic qualification with a solid shot at reaching the team final (scores have put them consistently in that 8-9 range). Their averages right now are a little behind the Japan/Frances of the world but keep them ahead of the Canada/Australias.

VTUBBBFX
Naomi Visser13.21413.58212.83513.439
Eythora Thorsdottir13.64213.36712.80812.573
Vera Van Pol13.31412.90912.39212.692
Sanna Veerman13.15613.80511.78012.190
Sanne Wevers11.40013.773
40.17040.75439.41638.704159.044

The Netherlands fares a little better when it comes to maximum scores, moving ahead of Japan in the hierarchy. Basically, when Eythora stays on all the events at the same time, the sun comes out.

VTUBBBFX
Naomi Visser13.35014.56613.60013.867
Eythora Thorsdottir14.05013.76713.33312.900
Vera Van Pol13.96713.26713.30013.333
Sanna Veerman13.35014.43312.50012.733
Sanne Wevers13.20014.133
41.36742.76641.06640.100165.299

Germany

The tough run for Germany has continued with the Elisabeth Seitz Achilles tear, which bites a big chunk out of Germany’s scoring potential for worlds this year. Germany has named a six-member squad of Pauline Schäfer, Emma Malewski, Sarah Voss, Meolie Jauch, Lea Marie Quaas, and Karina Schönmaier and will be thanking grey-eyed Athena that Sarah Voss is back from injury in time for worlds because otherwise this team would be in real(er) trouble. 

For team-score purposes I have Schönmaier as the alternate because she adds the least to the team score, but you’d have to think it could be anyone who isn’t in the Schäfer-Malewski-Voss crew. But really, without Seitz, Germany will need new senior Meolie Jauch’s potential bars score to come through.

For average, we’re looking at this:

VTUBBBFX
Meolie Jauch12.95013.639
Emma Malewski12.87512.85912.92312.403
Lea Marie Quaas13.15312.22811.93312.528
Pauline Schäfer12.90013.10513.35012.125
Sarah Voss13.46712.67512.80312.596
39.57039.60339.07637.527155.776

This average puts Germany squarely in the bubble zone for the top 12 for Olympic team qualification—and kind of in the low end of the bubble zone at that, below the yearly averages for teams like South Korea and Mexico (!) and Hungary and Romania (!).

This squad does have the gymnastics to pull it off and rise above all the aforementioned nations, especially if Voss has a big day, which would elevate score projections significantly. But the underdogs are swarming and will be eager to take out a perennial qualifier that has reached each of the last four Olympics as a team. Even the maximum score team, which features some fairly ambitious numbers overall, still doesn’t rank in the top 12 among max team scores at worlds this year.

VTUBBBFX
Meolie Jauch13.20014.000
Emma Malewski13.05014.00013.73313.200
Lea Marie Quaas13.50012.95012.80013.150
Pauline Schäfer12.90013.25013.70012.300
Sarah Voss13.56613.26613.90013.250
40.26641.26641.33339.600162.465

South Korea

Speaking of South Korea…

For much of the year, South Korea and Australia have been heading up the “teams that could spoil the party” conversation with regard to Olympic qualification, and there’s a reason for that.

VTUBBBFX
Lee Dayeong13.10812.45012.23712.631
Shin Solyi13.24813.21212.74213.122
Eom Dohyun12.84712.56112.88712.519
Yeo Seojeong14.29611.78812.96711.943
Lee Yunseo12.82513.65212.75812.760
40.65239.42538.61238.513157.202

This is a top-12 team average right now, and this picture is built up of……mostly reasonable scores. There’s nothing out of the question here, even in a tightly scored worlds environment.

Not having super weird scores this year is what South Korea will lean on because, when we switch over to peak scores, they don’t rank among the top 12 countries. Taking in this whole picture, though, I would say South Korea’s peak scores are among the least insane of all the countries. No, they’re not all going to happen at worlds with hits, but these scores aren’t as peppered with laughable domestic nonsense and could end up closer to real life.

VTUBBBFX
Lee Dayeong13.26613.13312.76613.150
Shin Solyi13.60013.60013.80013.300
Eom Dohyun13.05013.25013.35013.100
Yeo Seojeong14.65012.70013.40013.200
Lee Yunseo12.95014.20013.05013.400
41.51641.05040.55039.900163.016

Mexico

Why has Mexico become the cool new spoiler pick for Olympic qualification? Here’s why.

VTUBBBFX
Alexa Moreno14.13512.44611.76613.054
Natalia Escalera13.26712.79612.43313.161
Ahtziri Sandoval13.71712.92213.10012.139
Cassandra Loustalot12.61711.60012.02012.814
Paulina Campos12.53313.15012.08811.300
41.11938.86837.62139.029156.639

This team average currently ranks in exactly 12th place, showing that Mexico is certainly in the qualification mix and it…might…not even require some crazy circumstances or a meltdown from another country or three to get there. And if they actually all hit beam, then watch out.

Significantly for Mexico, most of the athletes on this team just competed at the Paris World Cup, after which this team score increased by 3 tenths. Three tenths isn’t some super huge amount, but it does allow us to assume that these numbers for Mexico aren’t necessarily fictional—if the scores they got at a real FIG event (even one with some funkadelic results *cough* beam final *cough*) were improvements over the scores they had been getting.

Like South Korea, that’s what Mexico will hold onto because peak scores in 2023 see them drop below a number of the European countries that Mexico is outscoring on average.

VTUBBBFX
Alexa Moreno14.40012.65012.33013.550
Natalia Escalera13.65013.60013.03313.400
Ahtziri Sandoval13.90013.50013.10012.250
Cassandra Loustalot12.80011.60013.13313.000
Paulina Campos12.53313.50012.65011.300
41.95040.60039.26639.950161.766

Hungary

Don’t forget about Hungary. This team should be considered right in the mix for Olympic qualification, and their scores this year have also been hovering around that 12th-place cutoff.

Basically, after that Japan/France/Netherlands group in the top 9 teams, and then Australia (Australia really should be in the group for Olympic qualification, but also it’s been so long since they’ve had results that you don’t trust it), there would be just 2 Olympic team spots left. South Korea is in there, Germany is in there, Mexico is in there, and definitely Hungary is in there.

VTUBBBFX
Lili Czifra13.18312.64412.57212.581
Zsofia Kovacs13.95313.61713.18312.838
Zoja Szekely13.11113.66011.86812.353
Csenge Bacskay13.02511.575
Greta Mayer13.30111.24412.60912.327
40.43739.92138.36437.772156.494

Hungary’s max scores this year paint a particularly impressive image, but they are also deeply reliant on Zsofia Kovacs carrying all the luggage (thought not necessarily as much as in years past since new senior Bettina Lili Czifra has been scoring so well). Kovacs competed at Hungarian Championships last weekend but did not perform full difficulty, so it may be a race against time to see if she is able to deliver these kinds of numbers at worlds.

VTUBBBFX
Lili Czifra14.10013.20013.46613.400
Zsofia Kovacs14.40014.30013.83313.300
Zoja Szekely13.50014.13312.80012.600
Csenge Bacskay13.26712.466
Greta Mayer13.50012.40013.60013.400
42.00041.63340.89940.100164.632

Romania

Dare we?

VTUBBBFX
Ana Barbosu13.04613.68713.01712.973
Lilia Cosman12.78913.02212.11712.575
Sabrina Voinea13.67811.25412.19713.497
Amalia Ghigoarta13.06711.40812.84712.567
Andreea Preda12.80012.58312.40012.150
39.79139.29238.26439.045156.392

This 156.392 is right on par with the numbers for Hungary and Mexico. It’s just one of those things where you look at these scores and how team-competitive they are, and then look at the cemetery that is the last 10-15 years of Romanian gymnastics, and decide it’s all a hallucination. But they have the gymnastics to be discussed as legitimate Olympic team qualifiers. 

I won’t say that these are among the scores I trust as the most…realistic, but the potential game changer for Romania is that Lilia Cosman and Amalia Ghigoarta are both legitimately lovely on bars. Sometimes Ghigoarta gets a 9 in a way that recalls the worlds team of 2015, but her form certainly does not. But what that 2015 team had that this year’s team doesn’t is three DTYs.  

VTUBBBFX
Ana Barbosu13.55014.40014.00013.500
Lilia Cosman13.30013.60012.95012.750
Sabrina Voinea13.80012.15013.76613.700
Amalia Ghigoarta13.13313.90013.13312.733
Andreea Preda12.90013.20012.90012.700
40.65041.90040.89939.950163.399

We’re still waiting on a few teams like Spain and Belgium, but what we’ve seen from scores so far this year would have those teams a couple points back of this group.

28 thoughts on “The State of the Worlds Teams – Part 2”

  1. The highest scoring American team was Zoe Miller over Leanne Wong (also their best team for event final chances). It’s strange you use average scores as your main calculation, there’s a lot of bad data there.

    1. Highest scoring certainly doesn’t mean more than average …..
      Z.M. had one bad UB at Nationals, I don’t see how and why it shouldn’t count.
      Sending Z.M. at worlds over L.W. would have been a huge mistake, nobody was ready to make.

      1. People need to be forgiven one bad routine in an entire season. It’s not like Zoe only competed at Nats and Trials. She’s been hitting the routine for 2 years. It’s not a mistake at all to send her, it’s the most logical decision, the team has nobody else to contend for the 2nd Uneven Bars final slot and there is already good coverage on every other event. Leanne’s disappointing floor at trials lost her the spot for me, that was the place she had a chance to add something to the team.

      2. Wong earned that spot no question! Sending someone who probably won’t even make the final for her one event would have been crazy

    2. Bad data would be using the biased US judging system to choose the team over common sense.

      After watching US National Championships and find it very unlikely Shilese Jones is getting 8.7 execution scores on bars under international judging. Skye Blakely received a 9.850 execution score on her bar routine. Jordan Chiles the only clean bar worker the United States currently has competing only received an 8.300. Shilese Jones received between 8.00, and 8.200 at Worlds in 2022.

      The US judging system creates false narratives and should have no baring on deciding an International assignment.

      The Balance Beam scoring is even more dire.

      1. What delusional world do you live in where you feel the need to highly overexaggerate. The US scores have come more in line with what we will see at Worlds this year. The fact that they went with the full 1.0 deduction on Jones bars in night 1 of trials is evident of that.

  2. Ironically, Romania’s scores are all coming from officially sanctioned FIG events, because RomGym trophy is in the event calendar. I guess even FIG events can’t predict Worlds judging…

  3. Don’t the 13-15 placed teams all qualify three athletes to Paris? Is that what they decided to do for qualifying spots?

  4. There’s a reason why Leanne made the team and neither Kailyn Lincoln nor Zoe Miller did. In baseball terms, Leanne is a utility infielder: solid enough that she can be put on any apparatus and you can expect her to be steady. Besides, with Simone on the team, there’s less of a need for the absolute highest-scoring American team to be formed.

    1. It’s not just about the highest score teaming, but also event finals. When you look at the 4 person team of Simone, Shilese, Skye, Joscelyn, the only thing missing is another highly competitive Uneven Bars worker. Zoe Miller filled that role. Not taking her throws away a medal chance, for no reason. The team is already strong enough in other regards, given the available options.

      1. The main goal at Championships is winning a team medal. Event finals is secondary. Zoe Miller is completely useless on every event but the Uneven Bars. If Simone goes mental and cannot perform again, or someone gets injured, than Zoe Miller would be your back up. The judging in the united states is laughable.

        Kaliya makes more sense than Zoe Miller. She has a serviceable vault, a potential Floor finals appearance routine where she actually decently hits her dance skills. Zoe fell at Nationals, and made mistakes at Trials. She is exactly where she should be. Far away from the World team.

        US gym fans only seem to care about their favorites over the team and it is must be an American thing because that isn’t how we feel in other countries.

        Jade Carey fanatics are all over Reddit and Twitter making fun of Joscelyn because she earned her spot on the team. Zoe Miller and Simone and her fanatical fanbase only seem to care about her being on a World team so she can support Simone. It is a destitute way to treat hard working children.

      2. Skye can do a fine uneven bars routine as well, Artisticgymnast. I understand that you’re disappointed that Zoe failed to make the World team but Slang is right to point out that Zoe isn’t good enough on any other event and that the team medals (and the all around ones) are more important than the event medals.

  5. Spencer wants to send an athlete with no international scores because she hit a domestic routine. Thank god he will never be on a selection committee

    1. Right. Wong is a proven athlete and has made ever World team this quad. She’s a multi-World medalist and has been consistent all year. She is the smart bet to go with.

      The idea of Roberson AND Lincoln being on the same team is asinine. Neither of them could do bars.

      Wong makes most sense as she can go anywhere. She can do bars in TF to give Biles a break, she can also do beam in team finals to give Jones a break, and depending what happens with Roberson’s floor in Antwerp, she can do floor in team finals as well.

      You wouldn’t use Lincoln on any event but floor and vault in an emergency. She’s unproven internationally. Lots of potential and all but Pan Ams is where she belongs.

      DiCello is the perfect alternate because you can use her anywhere and she can replace any of these gymnast on any event.

    2. I totally agree. He is so biased towards Zoe that he fails to see that Zoe’s just too risky a bet for the World Championships team this year. Leanne is a much better bet because what she lacks in top-3 scores in event finals she makes up for in plenty of international experience and consistency. That said, I can theoretically understand where he’s coming from.

  6. sallygenova thinks Shilese is getting a 8.7 execution score on bars? AHAHAHAHA . It is time to get your head out of your ass. The US gymnasts besides Leanne have some of the nastiest jumps and leaps this side of the apocalypse.

  8. Sally calling people trolls for pointing out the facts is ironic. And we don’t even need a drum roll to know what she says next.

    Someone the other day on this forum said Spencer hates Leanne and I was ready to fight them on how he doesn’t but I just listened to their youtube and he really does hate her. He only mentioned her once. Then when Jessica squealed her name , and she did that 3 times, he just sat there with a dirty look on his face. It was maybe between 48 seconds and 52 seconds into the video, but Jessica laughed when he just stared at her. She was mocking him, and saying positive things because she knows he didn’t want Leanne on the team.

    If you don’t believe me go watch the youtube video with their world preview. I will never doubt that person again. I do not remember all the timings of his dirty stare but it happened 3 times. If you can sit through her squealing the proof is there

    1. Should we cancel him sis? Form a picket line? He may not be a fan of her. Oh well. Im not a fan of many of the girls who everyone gushes over with positive Polly precision. I’ll live. Leanne is good for this team, this year. But if she comes with the same thing next year, same d scores, etc I dont think she has a shot for the Olympic team. Not sure if she is going to NCAA this year, but if she does, let this be her swan song because I dont see her being able to go through a grueling NCAA and then make an Olympic team. But I could be wrong. Or maybe making an Olympic team isnt the goal…

  9. For as long as I’ve been a BBS reader, Spencer has always been in favor of team selections that maximize team final scores even if that team is riskier from a backup perspective. That’s why he was in favor of Skinner over McCallum for the 2020 Olympic team and why he’s in favor of Lincoln over Wong for these World Championships.

    As I’ve written before, the selection committee is making small sacrifices in max scoring potential for a lineup that has ample coverage everywhere. This team has at least 4 useable routines on every event with only Roberson’s bars and arguably Blakely’s floor being totally unusable. This gives the team coordinators the option to not use Biles and Jones on all 4 events if distributing the workload is a priority. The downside to this team is that if there are a couple disasters during team final and things get very close, there isn’t a 14.7 from Miller or 14.1 from Lincoln to fall back on.

    There are some clear advantages and disadvantages to the team that was selected and arguments for different lineups are valid and based on actual competition scores. However, I don’t think anyone would say the team selected was unreasonable.

    I do hope that the team coordinators can provide clear guidance to individual gymnasts on their best path to making the 2024 Olympics. I would like to see a more concrete selection criteria in place so gymnasts can tailor the next 10 months of training to what gives them their best chance to make the team.

  10. Spencer always nit picks Leanne to death when blogging and he ignored almost every mistake Shilese and Skye make. Don’t even try and sell that he isn’t anti-gymnasts. Leanne is just his newest victim.

    It is so stupid to take a one event gymnast like Zoe Miller. And Kaliya has no experience competing at international competitions. She isn’t artistic and the artistry judges are going to nail her attempt at dancing. She is an oxymoron, gymnastics wise. How can someone be so clean on her jumps and leaps and look like a drowned rat when it comes to dancing? Who trained this girl?

  11. So what? So what if he doesnt rainbow love light every single gymnast? Maybe he isnt a fan of some gymnasts? Is that not a viable option these days? He doesn’t go out of his way to be ‘problematic’ or personally attack anyone does he? He isnt a fan maybe of certain gymnasts. He has always leaned towards highest scoring team. But even if he isnt a fan of some gymnasts, AND? He isnt making executive decisions, he is merely a bystander fan with a blog. Breath. I wish more bloggers were honest about how they felt about these athletes in a respectful way, having fav’s, least favs, based on what? GYMNASTICS., skill level, lines, etc.

    1. Hi Spencer. You’re a biased POS. Be a man about it. Don’t hide under a fake name.

      “He isn’t a fan maybe of certain gymnasts.” If this is your best response than it proves you’re full of shit.

      Joscelyn Roberson comes across as a darling person, that has zero to do whether her jumps and leaps are complete. You’re not a blogger. You’re a fang girl. Don’t act like an expert if you base your opinion on if the gymnast said hi to you when you saw her in the hall way of the 2018 National Championships.

      1. Gurl, simmer down and touch grass. Spencer has made it clear he never reads the comment section, many times… So sweetie @ him, because he isn’t reading this. I said what I said. Cry about it. You must be related to Leanne or make bows for her on your off time. Pressed like a panini! Maybe he didnt say HI to you, in the hallway in junior high! Maybe thats where the trauma is coming from. lol I think the fellow commentators should start a GofundMe for Brianna. Mad someone doesnt luv her favorite and didnt *gasp* mention her much on a review of the comp! The horror! gurl log off.

  12. Oh yes, that is Spencer. It sounds just like him.

    No one cares. If he wants to lie about something so stupid, let him.

    And shut up and let the real gym fans discuss the sport. Why do the GGMB members always have to troll? Don’t you have anything better to do with your life? ? This isn’t your board. You were fazed out. Move on, JadeCareysDanceMoves

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