Week 10 Rankings and NQS Scenarios

RkChgTeamNQSThis
Week
1=Oklahoma197.965198.200
2=LSU197.825198.575
3+1Florida197.760198.025
4-1UCLA197.600197.675
5=Utah197.515197.225
6=Cal197.375197.200
7=Missouri197.345198.100
8=Michigan State197.290197.150
9+1Georgia197.135197.175
10-1Kentucky197.130197.925
11=Oregon State197.090197.025
12+2Alabama197.085197.450/
196.875
13-1Stanford197.065197.100
14-1Auburn197.040197.150
15=Minnesota197.030197.125
16=Arkansas197.010197.725
17=Michigan196.845196.900
18=Denver196.705196.700
19+1NC State196.525197.000/
196.675
20-1Nebraska196.510196.350
21+1Arizona196.355196.775
22-1Southern Utah196.310196.900
23=Ohio State196.270196.325
24=North Carolina196.125195.625
25+2Penn State196.085196.675

Bold scores must be included as part of the six and can no longer be dropped.


1. Oklahoma – 197.965

Road score 1198.050
Road score 2197.950
Road score 3197.925
Home/road score 1198.200
Home/road score 2198.075
Home/road score 3197.825
NQS:197.965

2. LSU – 197.825

Road score 1198.125
Road score 2197.650
Road score 3197.300
Home/road score 1198.575
Home/road score 2198.050
Home/road score 3198.000
NQS:197.825

For the first time in a light century, Oklahoma’s #1 ranking is potentially under threat this week. LSU heads to Auburn with a chance to drop that road 197.300, giving the Fightin’ DDs a higher maximum potential NQS than Oklahoma has. Far from a given, though.

At minimum, LSU would need to hit the 198 mark to catch Oklahoma. If not, Oklahoma retains #1 regardless. But if so, then we’re looking at how much LSU eclipses 198 by, and whether Oklahoma can increase its own NQS. If LSU goes 198.400, then #1 is LSU’s regardless of what Oklahoma does.

3. Florida – 197.760

Road score 1198.025
Road score 2197.575
Road score 3197.450
Home/road score 1198.125
Home/road score 2198.125
Home/road score 3197.625
NQS:197.760

Florida is set with a spot in the top three for another week. There is a chance that Florida could pass LSU, but it would require Florida going over 197.950 and LSU going under 197.500 to even begin to entertain it as a possibility.

4. UCLA – 197.600

Road score 1197.950
Road score 2197.550
Road score 3197.550
Home/road score 1197.675
Home/road score 2197.675
Home/road score 3197.550
NQS:197.600

5. Utah – 197.515

Road score 1197.950
Road score 2197.425
Road score 3197.225
Home/road score 1198.075
Home/road score 2197.675
Home/road score 3197.300
NQS:197.515

UCLA and Utah face off this weekend with the 4-5 rankings up for grabs—with the recognition that the difference between 4 and 5 is basically pointless because they both go to the same regional as the favorites to advance. But with a slightly higher max NQS, UCLA can ensure hanging on to #4 with a season high.

6. Cal – 197.375

Road score 1197.675
Road score 2197.275
Road score 3197.200
Home/road score 1197.775
Home/road score 2197.550
Home/road score 3197.175
NQS:197.375

With two meets this coming weekend, we won’t know what Cal’s potential NQS or realistic ranking range is until after Friday, but Missouri is putting the pressure on. Cal will mostly just be hoping for two home meets where the vault judges don’t give Frazier’s DTY a 9.700.

7. Missouri – 197.345

Road score 1197.725
Road score 2197.200
Road score 3197.175
Home/road score 1198.100
Home/road score 2197.425
Home/road score 3197.200
NQS:197.345

Missouri has a shot at the #6 ranking depending on Cal, but the most tangible goal will be clinching a spot in the SEC evening session, guaranteed with just a 197.250 away against Arkansas.

8. Michigan State – 197.290

Road score 1197.200
Road score 2197.150
Road score 3197.150
Home/road score 1197.500
Home/road score 2197.475
Home/road score 3197.475
NQS:197.290

Michigan State competes at home on Sunday with a whopping possible NQS range of 197.290-197.295. So this week, MSU’s ranking hinges on what everyone else does.

9. Georgia – 197.135

Road score 1197.350
Road score 2197.200
Road score 3197.175
Home/road score 1197.200
Home/road score 2197.125
Home/road score 3196.975
NQS:197.135

OK. Let’s get through all the SEC Championships qualification scenarios here. Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, and Arkansas are all at least theoretically at risk of finishing last in the conference and missing the championship. Here’s where we are:

CURRENT NQSMAX NQS THIS WEEK
Georgia197.135197.210
Kentucky197.130197.355
Alabama197.085197.280
Auburn197.040197.210
Arkansas197.010197.155

Georgia: With a very bunched range of counting scores, Georgia doesn’t have a lot of room to increase its NQS this week but does have the current NQS edge. Georgia would need to score 197.100 to clinch a spot in the championship even if all the others score season highs.

Kentucky: Kentucky has the most room to grow with a 196.800 road score still to drop, so it would take 196.950 for Kentucky to clinch.

Alabama: Alabama did not get the hugely huge scores they were looking for from the two-meet weekend, so there’s still work to be done. Not too much, though, as a 197.050 away at Michigan would do it.

Auburn: Of the current top 8, Auburn is in the most precarious position but still does control its own destiny and can clinch with a 197.500.

Arkansas: Arkansas is the one not in control of its own championship destiny. If the other four teams all get those goal scores, Arkansas is out no matter what. But if even one of them doesn’t, there’s still a chance. At very very minimum, Arkansas has to go 197.150. Any lower, and the chance is done. 197.150+ and we start looking at what everyone else is doing.

10. Kentucky – 197.130

Road score 1197.225
Road score 2197.150
Road score 3196.800
Home/road score 1197.925
Home/road score 2197.300
Home/road score 3197.175
NQS:197.130

11. Oregon State – 197.090

Road score 1197.025
Road score 2196.975
Road score 3196.950
Home/road score 1197.600
Home/road score 2197.325
Home/road score 3197.175
NQS:197.090

Both remaining meets for Oregon State are at home, so those road 196s are locked, which will make it tough to move up too too much.

12. Alabama – 197.085

Road score 1197.650
Road score 2196.875
Road score 3196.675
Home/road score 1197.450
Home/road score 2197.350
Home/road score 3197.075
NQS:197.085

13. Stanford – 197.065

Road score 1197.400
Road score 2197.100
Road score 3196.925
Home/road score 1197.250
Home/road score 2197.025
Home/road score 3197.025
NQS:197.065

Like Cal, Stanford has two meets this weekend and could make a real move if things to go plan—and if there’s some sort of an SEC-based beam nightmare.

14. Auburn – 197.040

Road score 1197.750
Road score 2197.150
Road score 3196.825
Home/road score 1197.300
Home/road score 2197.025
Home/road score 3196.900
NQS:197.040

15. Minnesota – 197.030

Road score 1197.375
Road score 2197.325
Road score 3196.800
Home/road score 1197.125
Home/road score 2197.075
Home/road score 3196.825
NQS:197.030

With the super tight bunching of teams in this part of the rankings, Minnesota would end up as high as 9th given a season best and everyone else getting snowed out or something. It’s not the most likely outcome, but that’s the range of possibilities.

16. Arkansas – 197.010

Road score 1197.725
Road score 2197.050
Road score 3196.400
Home/road score 1197.425
Home/road score 2197.175
Home/road score 3197.000
NQS:197.010

The top 16 teams are seeded at the four regional sites, which would divide like this right now based purely on ranking.

–[1] Oklahoma, [8] Michigan State, [9] Georgia, [16] Arkansas
–[2] LSU, [7] Missouri, [10] Kentucky, [15] Minnesota
–[3] Florida, [6] Cal, [11] Oregon State, [14] Auburn
–[4] UCLA, [5] Utah, [12] Alabama, [13] Stanford

Of course, we would have a host conflict with our only two seeded hosts (Utah and Alabama) going into the same regional. In this case, the lower-seeded host is the one that gets moved—and moved as few spots as possible. Since demoting Alabama from 12 to 13 wouldn’t resolve the conflict, Alabama would be promoted from 12 to 11 and would host the Florida-Cal regional, while Oregon State would be bumped into the Utah-UCLA regional.

–[1] Oklahoma, [8] Michigan State, [9] Georgia, [16] Arkansas
–[2] LSU, [7] Missouri, [10] Kentucky, [15] Minnesota
–[3] Florida, [6] Cal, [12] Alabama, [14] Auburn
–[4] UCLA, [5] Utah, [11] Oregon State, [13] Stanford

17. Michigan – 196.845

Road score 1196.975
Road score 2196.900
Road score 3196.900
Home/road score 1197.100
Home/road score 2196.850
Home/road score 3196.600
NQS:196.845

Enough of a gap has emerged that Michigan cannot get into the top 16 this week. It would take two weeks of solid scores to get that done, but if Arkansas doesn’t make SECs, there should still be an opening during conference championship week.

18. Denver – 196.705

Road score 1197.525
Road score 2196.750
Road score 3196.325
Home/road score 1197.125
Home/road score 2196.700
Home/road score 3196.625
NQS:196.705

Denver is in the same boat, not able to get into the top 16 this week but able to set up a conference championship siege with a good score in week 11.

19. NC State – 196.525

Road score 1196.675
Road score 2196.350
Road score 3196.050
Home/road score 1197.025
Home/road score 2197.000
Home/road score 3196.550
NQS:196.525

20. Nebraska – 196.510

Road score 1196.750
Road score 2196.675
Road score 3196.500
Home/road score 1196.700
Home/road score 2196.350
Home/road score 3196.325
NQS:196.510

21. Arizona – 196.355

Road score 1196.650
Road score 2196.125
Road score 3196.125
Home/road score 1196.775
Home/road score 2196.775
Home/road score 3196.100
NQS:196.355

22. Southern Utah – 196.310

Road score 1196.650
Road score 2196.175
Road score 3196.100
Home/road score 1196.900
Home/road score 2196.475
Home/road score 3196.150
NQS:196.310

23. Ohio State – 196.270

Road score 1196.425
Road score 2196.325
Road score 3196.300
Home/road score 1196.650
Home/road score 2196.275
Home/road score 3196.025
NQS:196.270

24. North Carolina – 196.125

Road score 1196.200
Road score 2196.150
Road score 3195.775
Home/road score 1196.675
Home/road score 2196.575
Home/road score 3195.925
NQS:196.125

25. Penn State – 196.085

Road score 1196.675
Road score 2196.100
Road score 3195.700
Home/road score 1196.525
Home/road score 2196.325
Home/road score 3195.775
NQS:196.085

26. Arizona State – 196.065

Road score 1196.000
Road score 2195.950
Road score 3195.675
Home/road score 1196.600
Home/road score 2196.475
Home/road score 3196.225
NQS:196.065

27. Clemson – 196.055

Road score 1196.475
Road score 2196.225
Road score 3195.800
Home/road score 1196.575
Home/road score 2195.950
Home/road score 3195.825
NQS:196.055

28. Boise State – 195.980

Road score 1196.300
Road score 2195.975
Road score 3195.900
Home/road score 1196.425
Home/road score 2195.925
Home/road score 3195.800
NQS:195.980

29. Illinois – 195.965

Road score 1196.200
Road score 2195.900
Road score 3195.300
Home/road score 1196.675
Home/road score 2196.275
Home/road score 3196.150
NQS:195.965

30. Maryland – 195.940

Road score 1196.325
Road score 2196.150
Road score 3195.950
Home/road score 1196.125
Home/road score 2195.750
Home/road score 3195.725
NQS:195.940

31. Utah State – 195.840

Road score 1196.475
Road score 2196.000
Road score 3195.850
Home/road score 1196.300
Home/road score 2195.725
Home/road score 3195.325
NQS:195.840

32. BYU – 195.790

Road score 1195.900
Road score 2195.825
Road score 3195.800
Home/road score 1196.775
Home/road score 2195.750
Home/road score 3195.675
NQS:195.790

33. Iowa – 195.775

Road score 1196.350
Road score 2195.200
Road score 3195.000
Home/road score 1197.025
Home/road score 2196.200
Home/road score 3196.125
NQS:195.775

34. Central Michigan – 195.665

Road score 1195.850
Road score 2195.750
Road score 3195.600
Home/road score 1196.000
Home/road score 2195.625
Home/road score 3195.500
NQS:195.665

35. Towson – 195.660

Road score 1195.650
Road score 2195.600
Road score 3195.400
Home/road score 1196.400
Home/road score 2196.075
Home/road score 3195.575
NQS:195.660

36. George Washington – 195.555

Road score 1195.800
Road score 2195.750
Road score 3195.475
Home/road score 1196.550
Home/road score 2195.400
Home/road score 3195.350
NQS:195.555

Both #36 George Washington and #35 Towson have two meets this weekend (but so does #38 West Virginia). Meanwhile, #37 Washington still has a 194 to drop, which means even a regular 195 is useful.

NEXT IN

37. Washington195.525
38. West Virginia195.470
39. Iowa State195.465
40. Ball State195.455
41. Kent State195.415
42. Illinois State195.390

Discover more from Balance Beam Situation

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.