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#3 Florida Preview

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Let’s just cut to the chase.  Florida was the best team in the NCAA last year, and it wasn’t close.  For all the discussion about Alabama and UCLA stepping up at the right time (which they did), Florida had no business losing the title.  That they didn’t even make Super Six is an even greater and more interesting disappointment.

Much has been made about Florida peaking at the wrong time and showing their best gymnastics in January and February instead of March and April.  Rhonda has clearly taken this criticism to heart.  She pushed the team’s training schedule back 4-6 weeks this year in order to put them in a better position come championships.  Whether this will work remains to be seen.  It will be fascinating to watch their January meets to see if they look like the January Florida we’ve become accustomed to or if they look more like early-season UCLA.

While poor performances in January may be alarming to the team (and it will be interesting to see how they might respond mentally to losses since they are used to starting the season with such strength), a bad result or two is likely the best thing that could happen to them.  The two major issues that knocked them out of championships in 2011 (struggles on the beam and an inability to produce top routines under pressure) both appear to stem from a lack of competition adversity during the season.

Because the beam problems didn’t truly start to manifest themselves in an alarming way until SEC Championships, the team had little time to experiment with lineups or correct these issues.  Mahlich suddenly felt new pressure to hit, which made her very tentative and induced the falls, and the rest of the team was relatively unfamiliar with performing in a must-hit situation.  Worse beam outings early in the season would have made this scenario less foreign and would have told Rhonda exactly who could be relied upon to hit when necessary.  In addition, after the beam disaster at championships, the gymnasts tried too hard to stick their landings on vault and bars and ended up with worse scores because of it. Familiarity with performing after a poor rotation may have given the gymnasts a calmer demeanor and more ability to produce the gymnastics they had prepared.

For all of the issues we saw at the end of last season, Florida can still make the argument that they are the most talented team in the country.  In particular, returners Alaina Johnson, Mackenzie Caquatto, Ashanee Dickerson, and Marissa King will be relied upon on 3-4 events each and are all capable of massive scores.  Johnson would have been the undisputed top all-arounder in the country last year had it not been for lower scores on the beam, but she is capable of 9.950s on 3 events.  Caquatto proved herself a reliable 9.9 gymnast across the board, even coming off a long elite season in 2010.  She’ll have to get healthy, stay healthy, and continue improving on her performance ability under pressure.  She’s come a long way over the years from being the girl who could never hit beam, but she needs to keep getting more confident and not allow those 9.7s to creep in when she’s nervous.  Dickerson is so powerful on vault and floor that a 9.9 has become an expectation.  She’s scored well on beam in the past, but it can still be a struggle with leg form and consistency.  That 8.450 at regionals will haunt her beam performance for a while.  King is the national vault champion and is capable of the above floor performance.  Enough said.

The four stars by themselves would be strong enough to go up in the 3 through 6 positions on most events and contend for a national title, but they will be joined by standout freshman Kytra Hunter, who will be expected to contribute in the all-around as well.  She’s amazingly powerful, and her tumbling is always insane.  If they can manage her dance elements, she can bring in huge scores.  Bars was a significant weakness for her as an elite, but she’s still a Kelli Hill gymnast.  With a simple routine that doesn’t show off missed handstands, she can be a solid early contributor.

New gymnasts Kiersten Wang and (potentially, so has been said) Rachel Spicer would be standouts on other teams.  They will be necessary at times during the season, especially if Rhonda experiments with her depth early on, but with the five gymnasts mentioned above it will be hard for them to make too many lineups come the postseason.

Florida has no reason to worry about vault or floor.  Johnson, Caquatto, King, Dickerson, and Hunter will all be 9.9 capable on both those events.  That’s a lineup right there, as long as they bring in a competent scorer in the first position, not a placeholder whose score they’d rather not count.  In 2011, some of their leadoff gymnasts were notably weaker than the rest of the lineup, which was fine when everyone hit but became a problem when the score had to count.  This team is better than a 9.775 leadoff.

King and Dickerson are both capable on bars and can perform routines early in the lineup or whenever necessary, but they will not be standouts.  While Johnson and Caquatto can carry the team, the graduation of Alicia Goodwin creates more uncertainty in this lineup, and Florida will need at least one more strong score to be competitive.  This is where freshmen can step in and make the lineup if they prove competitive.  
 
As for beam, the issue is less about the number of competitive, possibly excellent routines (they will have many) than it is about who can hit.  Expect a lot of experimentation with this lineup and a lot of opportunities for the depth to show (or not).  Even though we can expect the stars to perform here as well, those lineup spots are not guaranteed if they perform tentatively and give us those 9.7s we saw last postseason.

When it comes to the top 3 teams this year, there are no guarantees.  Any one of the three could take the national title, and it would not be a surprise.  It’s hard to argue with Florida’s lineups, and predicting some 49.500 rotations this season is not farfetched.  They have the capability to be even better than they were last year, but it will take fixing the cracks we saw exposed so publicly at the end of 2011.  Rhonda’s willingness to make changes to her preparation schedule is an encouraging sign because Florida cannot expect to do the same things as last year and win this time, especially not with the improvements around the country.  They’re ranked #3 for a reason.  There are significant questions about their ability to make those changes and fix those problems.  But if they do, it will take superhuman performances from UCLA or Alabama to beat them.

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Intrasquad Roundup

Teams have finished up their December intrasquads and are breaking for the holidays.  Coaches have given their teams specific “we can’t officially make you train but here’s what you better do over break” instructions and will hope that their gymnasts return in recognizable condition to prepare for the first meet. In the meantime, let’s take a look at what some of the teams have been up to in the past week or so.

Georgia has posted a new episode of We Need to Talk about Kevin (Copp) containing highlights from the recent intrasquad.  Of note:

  • Chelsea Davis has been fully gymdogged out (it’s a real word…now) with the glitter and the ribbon and the temp tattoo.  We’ll just have to deal with it.  We didn’t see too much from her except the vault, which is her weakest event.  She lacks competitive amplitude.  I’m interested to see bars most of all.
  • Kat Ding is a gem.  She rates them at an 8.5.  I love the use of .5, like it’s a real scale, and her ability to resist the “I’d give us a TEN!” snap reaction.  She knows her teammates aren’t up to her level.  Still, it’s Georgia, so adjust for inflation.  How dare they show us that stuck beam dismount and make us want her to compete beam even though we know she’ll get like a 4 in competition.  
  • Jay is worried about the team’s fitness coming back from the break.  Apparently, he got his hand stuck in the cookie jar at 1:30.    

Our updates from UCLA have been sporadic.  They had the “Meet the Bruins” event, which wasn’t a real intrasquad (it was weirder and better), and now we have videos of only some of the gymnasts on only two events.  I’m not really surprised.  
They actually look well prepared on vault.  Hopfner-Hibbs and Peszek don’t have the same distance as the others, but they are both capable of sticking landings sometimes (as we see in this video), which should even out the scoring.  A presumed lineup of Hopfner-Hibbs, Peszek, Larson, Courtney, Frattone, and Zamarripa (with occasional routines from alternates Wong, De La Torre, McDonald, and Gerber) will be very difficult for any team to beat.  They have enough depth that they won’t miss Sydney Sawa’s competent vault.
Florida held an intrasquad on December 9th.  Kytra Hunter looks strong and Alaina Johnson looks on point.  Ashanee looks about as enthusiastic as usual.  Marissa King’s double layout is a dream.  Given that these are highlights, it’s difficult to draw real conclusions from the performance, but the Gators seem on track.  Although, those dangly little half-hearted streamers are a little too reminiscent of when Mary trashed the gym on Seventh Heaven.  Don’t pretend like you don’t get the reference.
Oklahoma has a highlight reel with a few full routines on each event.  The article is a breath of fresh air when K.J. doesn’t pretend like her other freshmen are going to make lineups.  This is unusual among NCAA coaches.
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#4 Oklahoma Preview

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A major loss.
Unfortunately, Oklahoma drew the short straw this year and were the team hit by a significant preseason injury when Natasha Kelley went down with yet another Achilles problem, sidelining her for the season. She has faced so many major injuries over the years that we have to wonder how much more gymnastics her body can take and whether she will be able to come back from this.  She was limited by the right knee even before this latest injury.  
In contrast to some of the other recent major injuries at top schools (UCLA losing Vanessa Zamarripa and Alabama losing Ashley Priess last year), Oklahoma doesn’t have as many major contributors with high scoring potential, so it will be harder for them to manage without their anchor on bars and beam.  Still, even though some have constructed this injury as completely devastating to Oklahoma’s chances, they do have other strong gymnasts who can keep them in the top group of 5 or so schools.  In fact, after the graduation of Hollie Vise, many expected Oklahoma to return to the second tier, but they kept pace in 2011 by getting refined, well-prepared routines from unexpected places.  Now, without another well-known elite, they’ll have to do the same in 2012.
Kelley had assumed much on the scoring leadership on her two strongest events (bars and beam), but now that responsibility falls squarely to Megan Ferguson.  Ferguson has displayed strong scoring potential throughout her collegiate career, but she became a star in 2011 by leading the team through the postseason (not posting a score below 9.850 at regionals or championships) and performing energetic, attention-grabbing routines.  Sometimes it’s easy to overlook Oklahoma because they don’t have the program history and don’t always perform the most difficult routines, but it’s impossible to ignore Megan Ferguson.

But as we’ve seen so many times, one star cannot make a team.  Ferguson doesn’t contribute on vault, and that piece could turn out to be a problem for Oklahoma, with three or four routines to replace from a lineup last year that wasn’t going to compete with UCLA, Alabama, or Florida anyway.  One of the major concerns on vault is the frequency of Yurchenko halfs we’ve seen from this team.  While the blind landing makes it difficult (and difficult to score well), it’s still considered a bit of a soft 10, and it doesn’t necessarily stack up against schools that are performing one or more Yurchenko 1.5s.  If you’ve just watched a Yurchenko 1.5 from Kytra Hunter, Georgia Dabritz, or Kayla Williams (or seen something from Zamarripa’s stable of phenomenal vaults), you’re not going to be that impressed by Madison Mooring’s Yurchenko half, even if it’s clean.  Oklahoma’s vaults could give them too many 9.825s in that lineup.

Interestingly enough, even though Kelley was the anchor, beam still looks to be Oklahoma’s strongest event in 2012.  They were far and away the best beam team in 2011, and that was just as much due to confident performances from Ferguson and the rest of the lineup (Nowak, Spears, Mooring, and Ratcliff) as it was to Kelley’s scoring.  Kayla Nowak in particular will be necessary as a solid early lineup gymnast on that event to give the team that base 9.800-9.850 (in addition to her anchor position on floor).   

Oklahoma is a bit lucky in that they did not lose any hugely influential seniors after last year, so they did not enter this season with too many holes that the freshmen were expected to fill aside from solidifying that vault lineup.  That means that if they can find the routines (likely a combination of gymnasts rather than a single star) to account for Kelley’s scores, they may be able to keep pace with the scoring potential from last year.  This will likely come from some lineup experimentation, meaning that the notable freshmen, Rebecca Clark and Erica Brewer, will be given a prime opportunity to prove their worth to the team.

         

We haven’t seen anything from Rebecca Clark in ages, but back in the day she was a junior with potential, making her way onto the junior squad for 2008 Pacific Rims.  She’s part of a group of new freshmen who are difficult to judge, having flown under the radar since competing as elites in 2009, but we see that her strength is in her clean form.  Coming from GAGE, this is not a surprise and can earn her high scores in NCAA if maintained and cultivated with positive routine composition that shows off this strength.  The team will need her healthy and contributing frequently.

It’s certainly going to be a challenge for Oklahoma in 2012.  The injury to Kelley has put them in the same position as teams like Michigan, who have to focus on replacing lost scores instead of gaining new, better ones.  Oklahoma does have significantly more depth than Michigan, which should help them have a much stronger result in 2012, but they will have to get ideal performances from all their remaining gymnasts. Even if that happens, without enough significant names of note, it will be extremely difficult for them to crack the top 3.  While things can always change, it seems that those top 3 teams are just too deep and talented.  One of the most interesting storylines for 2012, though, could be the fight for that 4th place, and Oklahoma is still right in that race.

  
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#5 Utah Preview

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Utah continues to be the most fan friendly program in collegiate gymnastics.  Given the numerous training videos and free live streams of their meets provided by the Marsdens and Utah Athletics, the general fan is usually more familiar with Utah gymnastics than with most of the other programs in the country.  This is both a blessing and a curse.  It’s a blessing because it cultivates a dedicated and knowledgeable fan base, not just in Utah but all over the country.  It’s a curse because we know the deal.  We know that, on December 9th, Utah is going to look like the most prepared team in the country.  We’ve been here before. If we didn’t know anything, we would look at the routines from the Red Rocks Preview and say, “Wow, there are a lot of 9.750-9.800 routines.  If they can clean up and refine, they will be great this year.” Because we do know something, we understand that even though some landings and body positions will improve in the coming months, the overall gymnastics we see now is the same as we’ll see in April.

That being said, this level will still probably be good enough to place in the top 6.  The comparison between Utah and Romania is not a new one, but it is apt.  They’ve perfected the science of being fine. They will go to championships, they will be one of the most consistent teams, they will capitalize on others’ mistakes, and they will reach their highest achievable place.  Back in the day, that highest achievable place was a championship.  Then, it became more like top 3.  Now, it’s a 5th or 6th place finish.  Going better than that is probably beyond the talent level of this team.

The biggest reason Utah will get that far is that, unlike some of the teams ranked below them, they have numbers on each event.  While they won’t necessarily want all of these numbers competing, they have that sought after 10-12 routines on each event from which to choose.  An injury to any one of their gymnasts won’t put them out of contention.  The downside of that statement is that all of their gymnasts are replaceable.  They don’t have that star who is going to lead them on the score sheet.

Stephanie McAllister was their top all-arounder last season, but she is a 39.300 gymnast, not a 39.600 gymnast.  The consistency is there, but the crisp execution on four events isn’t.  Of the other returners, we can expect a bunch of 9.825s from Corrie Lothrop and Nansy Damianova on 3-4 events and from Cortni Beers on 2 events (though not if that wackadoo form on bars during RRP keeps up).

The return of Kyndal Robarts will be the biggest boost to this team, particularly on vault where she performs very well.  She is different from McAllister (who is solid but unamazing across the board) in that she has some really compelling qualities but some definite weaknesses that keep her from staking claim to the title of big scorer.  Looking at the floor routine in the above video, we see that the leaps in particular just aren’t happening right now.

A good sign for Utah is that they have a big class of 5 freshmen coming in.  I’m a firm believer that it always helps to have new blood in lineups because we don’t have memories and expectations of these gymnasts’ performance qualities.  They don’t have the same association with the previous year’s results. Of this group, Tory Wilson has been getting some attention for floor because of her double layout, but I don’t expect to see too much from her or Becky Tutka this year.  Kassandra Lopez was a notable L10 and competed at Nastia’s Pink Leotard Jamboree a couple times, and she will likely fit into that Lothrop/Damianova category.  Good, solid, professional, fine.

Georgia Dabritz is the biggest name of the incoming group because she competed a few times at Visa Championships.  She should compete often and score well on vault and bars.  Even though she had a less notable elite career than Lothrop, I see more potential in her as an NCAA gymnast.

Even though Dabritz is the most talented of the group, the new gymnast I’m most interested in is Kailah Delaney.  While things aren’t perfect (you will find yourself saying, “Legs!” on beam in the above video), I like her vault and her presence.  She has the potential to break out of the Utah mold a little bit if allowed the chance to compete regularly.  I’ll be rooting for her.

Because of this incoming group, expect Utah to be better than they were last year.  They have a couple new 9.9 routines from Robarts and Dabritz that they didn’t have access to in 2011 when they were a very 196.400 team all year long.  Expect this year’s team to be more 196.750, which I anticipate will be about the cutoff after semifinals.  And because they’re Utah, let’s bet on them to make it.