1. Oklahoma

Oklahoma took over the #1 national ranking on Friday after scoring a 198.475, which ranks only 11th in all of NCAA history (trying?). By following that with another road 198 on Sunday, Oklahoma extended its lead and will now set eyes on breaking the all-time NQS record of 198.120, which a team called Oklahoma set in 2018. A score of 198.125 this week would do it. 

Oklahoma is in some danger of losing its #1 ranking to Florida this week depending on how things go so will also aim to score 198.375 (which is, I guess, a score we treat as realistic now) to clinch the #1 ranking for next Monday even if Florida goes 199.

2. Florida

Florida moved up to #2 this week after its record-breaking 198.575 tie with Auburn, the highest two-team score ever, the 4th-highest team score in college gymnastics ever, and yada yada yada it’s fine. I’m fine. Because Florida still has a 197.5 to drop, the possibility of moving up looks somewhat semi-realistic, if not completely under Florida’s control. Florida would need at least a 198.150 this week to have a chance at taking over #1, and then it would be down to how well Oklahoma does. 

3. Michigan

Following a score of 197.900 in losing to Oklahoma, Michigan lost the top spot in the rankings and dropped to #3. So FYI, 197.900 is bad now. Michigan cannot catch Oklahoma this week but could end up flip-flipping with Florida depending on how the week goes since the two are quite close right now. Florida has the smoother route to improving its NQS because of that 197.575 to drop compared to Michigan’s 197.900 to drop, so that’s mostly up to Florida.

A 198.225 for Michigan would ensure staying ahead of Utah even if Utah does another 198.575.

4. Utah

One of those cool things happened this week where Utah scored 198.575 and is now in a weaker ranking situation than last week, more vulnerable to being passed by Auburn. The potential to get rid of that lowly 197.275 does allow Utah a glimmer of a chance to challenge Michigan and Florida this week, but it’s going to take quite a score since there’s a fair deficit right now. Anything less than 198.275, and Utah can’t move up.

Because Utah has a one-tenth lead on Auburn right now and both have very similar NQS situations (a peak of 198.575, a 197.2 to drop this week), Utah will be aiming—at worst—to stay within five tenths of Auburn’s score this week to retain the #4 ranking.

5. Auburn

A 198.575 (good?) on Friday, followed by a 197.750 on Sunday, allowed Auburn to leapfrog LSU and move into 5th place in a tie with Alabama. Because Alabama is idle this weekend, any improvement on that 197.250 road score would allow Auburn to move out of this tie and ahead of Alabama, while a 197.700 would ensure that LSU cannot pass and that Auburn retains at least the #5 ranking regardless of what any other team does. 

FYI, there’s no need to do a tiebreak right now because rankings are nothing until they matter, but if we did need it, the tiebreak is the highest score that isn’t counting for NQS, which for Auburn is 197.525 and Alabama is 197.500, so Auburn would win the tiebreak.

5. Alabama

Alabama’s double-198 weekend, which were just the fifth and sixth 198s in all of Alabama history (and that remains surprising to me because…Alabama) moved the team up from 7th into a tie with Auburn for 5th. Now, Alabama does not compete this coming weekend, so we know that Alabama will stay at 197.650 in next Monday’s rankings and that Alabama’s maximum final NQS for the season is 197.840.

This makes Alabama vulnerable to being dropped back to 7th in the rankings next week, but we’ll see if the move to rest while everyone else pushes for another score will pay off in championship season.

7. LSU

LSU’s meet against Kentucky ended in semi-controversy this week as a beam cap malfunction allowed Kentucky a redo at the end of the rotation, and the hit redo gave Kentucky the win. Also there weren’t any 10s. Did the memo not make it to Louisiana? 

Moving ahead of idle Alabama will be the main goal for LSU this week in its home finale, requiring a 197.650. Catching Auburn is a possibility but will be mostly dependent on Auburn’s performance since LSU’s peak NQS after this week is 197.735, while Auburn’s is much higher at 197.915.  

8. Minnesota

A 197.850 away score in losing to Utah allowed Minnesota to move back into the top 8 this week. Right now, the top 7 teams look safely in the top 7, so everyone else is vying for the #8 spot and the lone remaining #2 seed at regionals. Minnesota doesn’t have a lot of room to improve NQS this week since that road 196 can’t go until the conference championship but definitely has the inside track for that #8 spot overall. The only way Minnesota isn’t #8 in next Monday’s rankings is if Cal racks up back-to-back huge scores on Friday and Sunday. 

9. Kentucky

Kentucky’s 197.500 victory at LSU was a road season high and allowed the team to move ahead of Cal and into 9th place. While 9th place is not a top-2 seeding, the 8 and 9 teams go to the same regional and the same semifinal within that regional, so it’s essentially the same thing. Looking at the current setup and the strength of those 1-2 seeds in most regionals, the 8-9 spots will be absolutely coveted by everyone else. Kentucky is, however, vulnerable this week in its home finale since those home scores are all very close to the high score that’s dropped. Even with a season high, Kentucky would still only go up to 197.250. 

10. Cal

Cal dropped from 8th to 10th this week after a 197.200 at UCLA—nonetheless a road high for the season—and will be looking to use next weekend’s two-meet affair to reestablish a spot in that 8-9 zone. At Friday’s away meet, Cal will aim for 197.275, which will ensure moving ahead of Kentucky for 9th regardless of what Kentucky scores. Depending on how the first meet goes, Cal may also have a shot at Minnesota at Sunday’s home meet, but we won’t know until after Friday.

11. Missouri

Missouri is the first team in the hierarchy that is guaranteed to count a 196 (everyone in the top 10 has only 198s and 197s in bold), which is starting to put a bit of a cap on how high Missouri can go. With a season high this week, Missouri would be at an NQS of 197.190, which is probably not going to move any higher than 11th.

The main goal will be to retain this ranking spot, which requires a 197.050. Missouri is still somewhat vulnerable to being dropped out of the top 12 since all the teams ranked 12-15 have a chance to pass, but Missouri has control of the situation, and that low 197 looks attainable at this point in the year.

12. Oregon State

Oregon State finally has an NQS and jumped into a tie for 12th place this week with a mid-196 that’s nonetheless still not quite the kind of score the team wants to count. But because Oregon State has nothing in the 196s that is yet in bold, moving up still looks attainable. Anything 196.775+ this week gives the Beavs a shot at Missouri, though that’s mostly going to be up to Missouri’s score. Now, what about the Yanish injury situation…

12. Michigan State

Michigan State kept its ranking up with another huge home score, going 197.575 to stay in the top 12. What MSU doesn’t have yet is an away 197, which every other team in the top 16 has, so that should be the goal in Kentucky on Friday. Right now, Michigan State and Oregon State are both tied and both have exactly the same peak NQS after this week should they both score season highs, so both look about as capable as the other of breaking the tie and moving into sole possession of 12th.

14. Denver

Denver has somehow managed to withstand the fact that every single gymnast on the entire team has suffered a season-ending injury (Glynn the latest to join the list) and still got a 197 on Sunday. The goal score for Sunday’s home quad will be 196.800 as that will ensure that Denver stays in the top 16 next Monday regardless of what home 198s anyone else might do.

15. Arizona State

Arizona State has a higher peak NQS than Denver does this coming weekend so will semi-relish its chances to gain a spot. While it would take a 197.550 to guarantee, any kind of 197 probably gives ASU a good look. But the major consideration this week will be fending off UCLA and clinching an evening spot at the Pac-12 Championship, which would take a 196.750 for Arizona State to seal.

16. Ohio State

Ohio State managed a critical huge road score over the weekend, which moved the team into the top 16, the essential cutoff for being seeded at regionals. The next goal will be a 197.125 in Friday’s home finale, which would serve to retain this spot in the top 16 for another week. That tri-meet with Cal and Pitt will be one to watch because all three are in position limbo somewhere with very clear score goals.  

17. UCLA

UCLA’s ranking did not change this week despite a 198 because…road scores. That also means that UCLA doesn’t have too much control at this weekend’s home finale with a peak NQS of 196.865 even if they score another 198—lower than the peaks of all the teams currently ranked in the top 16. UCLA’s quest for a seeded position (which all the top teams also want, no one wants UCLA lurking unseeded in their regional semifinal) will be based almost entirely on getting a big road score at Pac-12s, likely from the afternoon session unless Arizona State puts up a bad one this week.    

18. Arkansas

Arkansas finally figured out bars at Sunday’s meet, but because the other scores didn’t exactly cooperate, the total remained stuck in the 196s. After this week, Arkansas will have a peak NQS of 196.865, which is exactly the same peak number as UCLA (this UCLA South thing is really getting out of hand) as both teams will try to scramble over each other to see if there’s a spot in the top 16 for one of them. Or both. 

19. BYU

BYU dropped from 14th to 19th this week because of a (gasp) 196.450. With a peak NQS of 196.720, BYU cannot get back into the top 16 this week but will still be looking for a big home number that could set up a last-minute push at the conference championships. But it’s starting to look like a tough path. 

20. Iowa

Iowa got back to the 196.8s this week, which is not a huge number given the national situation but is just what Iowa needed to remove the threat of getting pushed down to the play-in meets, which are allegedly for the teams ranked 29-36 unless we have any last-year shenanigans. This should be enough buffer now.

21. Boise State

22. Utah State

23. Stanford

Like Alabama, Stanford is idle this weekend, so we know that Stanford will have a maximum final NQS of 196.610.

24. Georgia

Georgia didn’t exactly put up huge totals at its 2 meets over the weekend but has now *probably* done enough to ensure escaping the play-in meets with this NQS.

I‘d say everyone below Georgia should still be at least vaguely concerned about getting pushed down to the Wednesday Sadness.

25. Illinois

26. NC State

27. Iowa State

28. Maryland

29. Towson

29. San Jose State

31. Washington

Washington added a critical road meet last weekend and paired it with a big home score to move into a much safer position. Not SAFE, but safer. Pac-12s in two weeks will present an additional chance to move up with a hit and the removal of that road score, so Washington has among the better chances to move out of the 29-36 zone.

32. Southern Utah

I guess it was the wrong week to have a bad one as Southern Utah dropped 11 spots in the rankings. Like Washington, SUU still has a good setup to make a ranking push at the conference championship, which should concern whoever ends up in 27-28 after this weekend if it’s not Washington and Southern Utah because they will be vulnerable. Southern Utah is not safe for the top 36 right now, but is definitely among the likelier teams to make it.

33. West Virginia

West Virginia is now over the 196 in NQS but definitely among the teams still in trouble for making the top 36 and advancing to the elimination meets. Not a done deal. WVU’s goal score this week will be 196.300, which would at least make sure that they are in the top 36 heading into the conference championship. 

34. North Carolina

North Carolina moved from 38th into the good spots this week with an exceptionally important road 196.475, and now the team heads to Georgia for the Durante’s Revenge Rumble knowing that there’s still a low road score in tow that can be dropped off there. It will take a 196.175 to clinch a spot in the top 36 for next week, but North Carolina will have slightly higher aims than that and would start to look pretty safe with another mid-196.

35. Arizona

Arizona’s asset is a two-meet weekend this week, providing one more opportunity than everyone else has to get to a safe regionals position. That means a single meet this week doesn’t have to be a season high (I mean it would help) to stay in the top 36 because a home 196.4 followed by a road 196.0 would accomplish the same thing. Saturday’s road meet at BYU and the opportunity to get rid of that 195.500 will be the key.

36. Western Michigan

Western Michigan currently occupies the final spot but because Central Michigan is lurking there in 40th place with a higher peak NQS than WMU has, Western Michigan is not currently in control of its own regionals fate and will have the basic approach of “season high and hope at least one team effs up.”

This is the case for every team ranked 36-39 right now—WMU, Pitt, Nebraska, and Penn State. They’re definitely still alive, but it’s as much about rooting for West Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Central Michigan not to get those 196s they need as it is about good scores for themselves.

37. Pittsburgh

38. Nebraska

39. Penn State

40. Central Michigan

Central Michigan is the one frightening all the other teams because of that 194.650 that still can be dropped at either of the two remaining meets. Central Michigan has the ability to get into the top 36 in one fell swoop and will be looking for 196.400 this week to do it. CMU’s last two home scores were 196.475 and 196.650.

41. Kent State

42. UC Davis

For teams Davis and below, regionals qualification is moving into the territory of….very challenging. It’s not mathematically impossible because there are still multiple meets left, but they’d have to break the bank at both.

1. Michigan

Michigan’s “let’s pretend we never went to Nebraska” three-fall vault rotation rendered this week’s score unusable. Still, Michigan’s six NQS scores are already high enough that there’s not particular urgency on the remaining regular-season meets to deliver results. This does, however, mean that Oklahoma will have the opportunity to pass Michigan for #1 in the country depending on the result of their meet this Friday. Michigan is still in the driver’s seat with a peak NQS of 198.075 compared to Oklahoma’s 198.015, but it would take a score of 198.250 for Michigan to guarantee sole possession of #1 next week, which is…not exactly a given.

2. Oklahoma

Oklahoma lost to Florida this weekend so won’t be putting up any banners about recent developments, but the team did achieve the main task of getting rid of a 196.6 away score and closing the gap with Michigan. When Oklahoma welcomes Michigan to town this weekend, Michigan controls its own #1-ranking destiny, but Oklahoma will be looking to score at the very least 197.725, which would be enough to provide an opportunity to catch Michigan should Michigan not record a counting score. Anything less than 197.725, and Oklahoma will definitely stay behind Michigan in the rankings.  

3. Florida

Florida’s 198.100 in its home finale has given the Gators the best home scores of any team in the country. Now it’s time to go to work on those road numbers, which currently keep the team behind the top 2. It doesn’t necessarily have to stay that way. There’s an outside possibility that Florida could even get to #1 this week. But, Florida’s peak NQS after this week is 197.970, which is lower than the peak for Michigan or Oklahoma, so Michigan and Oklahoma’s results will dictate what happens in the top 3. Still, Florida can give itself at least a chance to pass Oklahoma with a 197.700 and a chance to pass Michigan with a 198.025 should either of them put up a clunker. And by clunker I mean a…gasp…mid-197.

4. Utah

Utah’s loss to Arizona on Friday wasn’t…ideal and left the team with a clear deficit to the top three. Competing at home this weekend and unable to drop that 197.275, Utah has maximum NQS of 197.750, which could pass Florida should Florida have a bad one, though the Gators won’t need to do all that much to ensure they stay in front. Since moving up this week would be tough and out of their hands, Utah will instead aim for a 197.925, which would guarantee a spot in the top four next week regardless of what LSU does. 

5. LSU

A 197.625 road score allowed LSU to jump ahead of Auburn this week with the possibility of passing Utah this week now on the table if LSU can get rid of that 196.950. Because Utah still enjoys a fairly sizeable margin, that’s going to be in Utah’s hands, but scoring at least 197.800 on Friday would give LSU a shot. A strong score is also critical to fending off the challengers because Auburn and Alabama both compete twice, giving themselves double the opportunity that LSU has to improve NQS.

6. Auburn

A program-record 197.925 over the weekend nonetheless saw Auburn lose ground in the rankings because that’s still lower than two of LSU’s home scores. Auburn competes twice this weekend, once at home and once away, so we won’t know exactly how high the team can go until after Friday’s home meet, though Sunday’s away meet serves as the more critical competition since those road 197.1s and 197.2s won’t challenge the top five this year and must go if Auburn is to move higher in the rankings.  

7. Alabama

Alabama’s 197.500 over the weekend did little to change the team’s NQS because that’s where we are right now. Exactly like Auburn, Alabama competes twice this weekend, at home on Friday and then away on Sunday, with the away meet being much more important for ranking purposes. Both teams may be faced with a lineup dilemma this weekend because they’ll have senior day on Friday and will want to go all “ahhh crazy scores, home finale, seniors, best lineup,” but getting a good score at Elevate the Stage on Sunday is crucial, so that one can’t then be a rest-our-people meet.

8. Cal

Cal’s score of 196.850 in losing to Arizona State was still enough to get into the top 8, though the team would have wanted a little bit more since the current state of these road scores is unlikely to be enough to get any higher than 8th. That’s especially true with Minnesota looming and enjoying a higher possible NQS than Cal does after this weekend’s meets. A busy end-of-season schedule still gives Cal three more road meets (including this weekend at UCLA), so none of those scores are bold yet. While Cal may fall behind Minnesota this week, the goal score will be 197.475, which would ensure fending off the likes of Kentucky, Missouri, and Oregon State, and also establish a road marker clearly higher than what those teams have done thus far.

9. Minnesota

The Minnesota roller coaster went back up this week with a program-first 198 to establish a very comfortable repertoire of home scores. The road scores are still keeping Minnesota well behind anyone in the top 7, but that 196.225 can be made to fly with a hit this weekend, and it would take a 197.400 to guarantee a spot ahead of Cal in next Monday’s rankings. Minnesota hasn’t yet managed that kind of score at a road meet, but it should be a very realistic aim for this team.

10. Kentucky

Kentucky reached a road season-high of 197.150 this week, which will put the team in contention to rise as high as 8th depending on how the weekend plays out. But since Kentucky’s 197.220 peak NQS is lower than Minnesota’s and Cal’s, so it’s going to be about how those teams do. Kentucky will control its own top 10 fate this week since it will take just 196.800 to confirm that status, and at this point in the season the scoring expectation should be at least that, if not higher.

11. Missouri

Missouri’s 196.775 last Friday was a fine-but-unexceptional score that served to maintain the team’s current place but doesn’t necessarily set Missouri up to move higher. A maximum NQS after this weekend of 197.100 will make it fairly challenging to catch anyone in the top 10 and does also put Missouri at risk of falling behind Oregon State once Oregon State has an NQS. A 197.075 this week would be a big help and would confirm a place in the top 12 (i.e. a top-3 seeding at regionals) for the week.

NR. Oregon State

Oregon State will finally have an NQS after this weekend’s meet in Arizona. With a maximum NQS of 197.120 after this next meet, Oregon State should like its chances to slot in ahead of Missouri when joining the rankings, though challenging Minnesota, Cal, and Kentucky will be hard. So the Beavs will expect to be in 11th with a hit meet, though 9th or 10th would be in the picture. 

12. Michigan State

Michigan State recorded another solidly high 196 this week to keep comfortable pace in the tweens, though probably will fall out of the top 12 this week once Oregon State joins the rankings. The main goal for MSU will be to stay in the top 16 for seeding, which would be a huge deal. That position looks OK for now, but the likes of Arizona State, UCLA, and Arkansas may cause trouble in that regard in coming weeks. 

13. Denver

14. BYU

15. Arizona State

Among the teams in this bubble zone competing for an all-important spot in the top 16 (seeded at regionals), Arizona State is in the best position. Coming off two consecutive 197s and with a couple low 196s to drop, expect this ranking to keep improving. A 197.125 this week would make sure ASU leapfrogs BYU regardless of what BYU scores, and Michigan State and Denver could also be realistic passes unless they’re able to get back to the 197s. 

16. Utah State

Utah State now has a comfortable slate of 196s and enjoys a coveted spot in the top 16 right now, but that will be exceptionally difficult to maintain with Oregon State and Arkansas still looking to enter the NQS rankings, and UCLA looming, and no clunker 195s left to get rid of.

17. UCLA

UCLA helped itself out with a home 197 this weekend, though that’s helping itself out in terms of getting a seeded spot at regionals, not really in terms of a spot in the top 10 or top 8 since the those teams are counting better home scores than 197.1. It’s going to be a late thing for UCLA because that 195.475 can’t go away until the conference championships. That’s when the Bruins would have to make a big last-minute move into a less devastating portion of the rankings because if the season ended right now, UCLA would be an unseeded team heading to the Washington regional with Utah and LSU.

NR. Arkansas

The bars problems continue to haunt Arkansas with a 196.100 in the home finale not doing a whole lot of good. But, Arkansas’s only bold scores are in the 197s, which is still a very competitive setup if the ship can be righted immediately, exactly now, right this moment. This weekend’s double-Alabama meets will be decisive for whether Arkansas finishes the season just trying to scrape into the seeded spots or whether Arkansas can still position itself as a postseason threat. 

18. Ohio State

Ohio State is making a late push for a top-16 position with 196.9 and 197.0 over the last two meets, scores that are competitive for that plateau. With two meets this weekend, it will be possible to drop both the 195.7 and the 196.0, and if that happens, then we’ll know Ohio State is in the mix.

19. Iowa

Right now I’d consider Iowa the last team that’s already safe for advancing to regionals with that NQS at 196.325, but another result in the 196.2-196.4 range saw Iowa drop from 13th to 19th this week and remain somewhat vulnerable to getting dumped into the play-in meets should the scores not return to the higher 196s.

20. Stanford

21. Southern Utah

This Saturday presents a critical opportunity to get rid of that 195.000 road score and move SUU into the group of teams that are all-but-mathematically safe for regionals.

22. Illinois

23. Boise State

Boise State continues to lurk, sitting very close to the teams ranked 20-22 and still with a 194 to remove. This week’s maximum NQS of 196.535 would be a completely safe score for regionals, and is ahead of Illinois and Stanford peak’s, about on par with Southern Utah and Utah State.

24. Towson

25. San Jose State

San Jose State got rid of its 192 and make the big move this week, starting to look like a very realistic regionals prospect with an NQS over 196 with three meets to go.

26. Iowa State

27. West Virginia

28. Georgia

Georgia got rid of one of its 194s last Friday, and any whiff of potentially getting relegated to the play-in meets should be gone after this weekend’s double-meet performance. At least, something would have to go very wrong for that 194 not to fly at this point in the year. Georgia is still, however, very much looking like an unseeded team at regionals. Which would be interesting.

29. NC State

30. Nebraska

The scores have started to come for Nebraska, but only just in the nick of time. There’s no room remaining to count falls with three meets left and three scores that really need to go. Both Nebraska and Penn State (in 31st) are in position to be safe as long as they keep getting 196s, BUT they can’t let their guards down at all because there are a number of teams ranked below them that still have 194s to drop and will be making a push. These current NQSs of 195.845 and 195.840 shouldn’t make it to regionals this year, so they still need to get scores.

31. Penn State

32. Arizona

33. Maryland

Maryland still has five whole meets left, so nothing is decided, but the current state of those road scores is not going to be safe.

34. Western Michigan

Since Oregon State and Arkansas are currently unranked, 34th place should be treated as 36th place, the final spot to advance to regionals. With three weeks of meets remaining and the cutoff score already at 195.625, it still looks like it’s going to take an NQS over 196 to make regionals, so for a team like WMU, anything that isn’t a 196 has to go. 

35. Washington

Washington went from being the talk of the town right back to danger after a bars collapse on Sunday saddled the team with a non-counter, a 195.100 road score that’s now in bold, and a ranking right in the danger zone. The outlook is still more positive for Washington than others because the ability to balance out that 195.1 with a 197 has already been proven and there are some obvious clunkers that can still be dropped. That should also worry the teams in the 30-34 zone since there’s someone with higher scoring potential and a higher peak NQS ranked below them.

36. Pittsburgh

Pitt remains right in the mix with these bubble teams, playing a game of who can get rid of that 194 the best. There’s very little separating Maryland, WMU, Washington, Pitt, and North Carolina but probably not room for too many of them at regionals.

37. Rutgers

Rutgers is staying in sight of the regionals spots for now, but there are no low 194s to drop here to help them climb the rankings, and a team without 196s is not making regionals this year.

38. North Carolina

How does North Carolina always seems to find itself in the same bucket of syrup no matter how 196y they look? A non-counting score on Thursday compromised the ranking, but there’s still a bad road score to drop and nothing under 196 in bold, so North Carolina should remain optimistic about its chances. Though the leeway for missed meets has now been used up.

39. UC Davis

40. Central Michigan

Teams in this portion of the rankings are starting to find the door closing on them, except for Central Michigan, which still has a 193 and a mid-194 that can go. If they do, these 196s look very competitive.

41. Temple

41. Kent State

43. Ball State

44. George Washington

45. Illinois State

46. New Hampshire

47. Northern Illinois