1. Oklahoma

Oklahoma took over the #1 national ranking on Friday after scoring a 198.475, which ranks only 11th in all of NCAA history (trying?). By following that with another road 198 on Sunday, Oklahoma extended its lead and will now set eyes on breaking the all-time NQS record of 198.120, which a team called Oklahoma set in 2018. A score of 198.125 this week would do it. 

Oklahoma is in some danger of losing its #1 ranking to Florida this week depending on how things go so will also aim to score 198.375 (which is, I guess, a score we treat as realistic now) to clinch the #1 ranking for next Monday even if Florida goes 199.

2. Florida

Florida moved up to #2 this week after its record-breaking 198.575 tie with Auburn, the highest two-team score ever, the 4th-highest team score in college gymnastics ever, and yada yada yada it’s fine. I’m fine. Because Florida still has a 197.5 to drop, the possibility of moving up looks somewhat semi-realistic, if not completely under Florida’s control. Florida would need at least a 198.150 this week to have a chance at taking over #1, and then it would be down to how well Oklahoma does. 

3. Michigan

Following a score of 197.900 in losing to Oklahoma, Michigan lost the top spot in the rankings and dropped to #3. So FYI, 197.900 is bad now. Michigan cannot catch Oklahoma this week but could end up flip-flipping with Florida depending on how the week goes since the two are quite close right now. Florida has the smoother route to improving its NQS because of that 197.575 to drop compared to Michigan’s 197.900 to drop, so that’s mostly up to Florida.

A 198.225 for Michigan would ensure staying ahead of Utah even if Utah does another 198.575.

4. Utah

One of those cool things happened this week where Utah scored 198.575 and is now in a weaker ranking situation than last week, more vulnerable to being passed by Auburn. The potential to get rid of that lowly 197.275 does allow Utah a glimmer of a chance to challenge Michigan and Florida this week, but it’s going to take quite a score since there’s a fair deficit right now. Anything less than 198.275, and Utah can’t move up.

Because Utah has a one-tenth lead on Auburn right now and both have very similar NQS situations (a peak of 198.575, a 197.2 to drop this week), Utah will be aiming—at worst—to stay within five tenths of Auburn’s score this week to retain the #4 ranking.

5. Auburn

A 198.575 (good?) on Friday, followed by a 197.750 on Sunday, allowed Auburn to leapfrog LSU and move into 5th place in a tie with Alabama. Because Alabama is idle this weekend, any improvement on that 197.250 road score would allow Auburn to move out of this tie and ahead of Alabama, while a 197.700 would ensure that LSU cannot pass and that Auburn retains at least the #5 ranking regardless of what any other team does. 

FYI, there’s no need to do a tiebreak right now because rankings are nothing until they matter, but if we did need it, the tiebreak is the highest score that isn’t counting for NQS, which for Auburn is 197.525 and Alabama is 197.500, so Auburn would win the tiebreak.

5. Alabama

Alabama’s double-198 weekend, which were just the fifth and sixth 198s in all of Alabama history (and that remains surprising to me because…Alabama) moved the team up from 7th into a tie with Auburn for 5th. Now, Alabama does not compete this coming weekend, so we know that Alabama will stay at 197.650 in next Monday’s rankings and that Alabama’s maximum final NQS for the season is 197.840.

This makes Alabama vulnerable to being dropped back to 7th in the rankings next week, but we’ll see if the move to rest while everyone else pushes for another score will pay off in championship season.

7. LSU

LSU’s meet against Kentucky ended in semi-controversy this week as a beam cap malfunction allowed Kentucky a redo at the end of the rotation, and the hit redo gave Kentucky the win. Also there weren’t any 10s. Did the memo not make it to Louisiana? 

Moving ahead of idle Alabama will be the main goal for LSU this week in its home finale, requiring a 197.650. Catching Auburn is a possibility but will be mostly dependent on Auburn’s performance since LSU’s peak NQS after this week is 197.735, while Auburn’s is much higher at 197.915.  

8. Minnesota

A 197.850 away score in losing to Utah allowed Minnesota to move back into the top 8 this week. Right now, the top 7 teams look safely in the top 7, so everyone else is vying for the #8 spot and the lone remaining #2 seed at regionals. Minnesota doesn’t have a lot of room to improve NQS this week since that road 196 can’t go until the conference championship but definitely has the inside track for that #8 spot overall. The only way Minnesota isn’t #8 in next Monday’s rankings is if Cal racks up back-to-back huge scores on Friday and Sunday. 

9. Kentucky

Kentucky’s 197.500 victory at LSU was a road season high and allowed the team to move ahead of Cal and into 9th place. While 9th place is not a top-2 seeding, the 8 and 9 teams go to the same regional and the same semifinal within that regional, so it’s essentially the same thing. Looking at the current setup and the strength of those 1-2 seeds in most regionals, the 8-9 spots will be absolutely coveted by everyone else. Kentucky is, however, vulnerable this week in its home finale since those home scores are all very close to the high score that’s dropped. Even with a season high, Kentucky would still only go up to 197.250. 

10. Cal

Cal dropped from 8th to 10th this week after a 197.200 at UCLA—nonetheless a road high for the season—and will be looking to use next weekend’s two-meet affair to reestablish a spot in that 8-9 zone. At Friday’s away meet, Cal will aim for 197.275, which will ensure moving ahead of Kentucky for 9th regardless of what Kentucky scores. Depending on how the first meet goes, Cal may also have a shot at Minnesota at Sunday’s home meet, but we won’t know until after Friday.

11. Missouri

Missouri is the first team in the hierarchy that is guaranteed to count a 196 (everyone in the top 10 has only 198s and 197s in bold), which is starting to put a bit of a cap on how high Missouri can go. With a season high this week, Missouri would be at an NQS of 197.190, which is probably not going to move any higher than 11th.

The main goal will be to retain this ranking spot, which requires a 197.050. Missouri is still somewhat vulnerable to being dropped out of the top 12 since all the teams ranked 12-15 have a chance to pass, but Missouri has control of the situation, and that low 197 looks attainable at this point in the year.

12. Oregon State

Oregon State finally has an NQS and jumped into a tie for 12th place this week with a mid-196 that’s nonetheless still not quite the kind of score the team wants to count. But because Oregon State has nothing in the 196s that is yet in bold, moving up still looks attainable. Anything 196.775+ this week gives the Beavs a shot at Missouri, though that’s mostly going to be up to Missouri’s score. Now, what about the Yanish injury situation…

12. Michigan State

Michigan State kept its ranking up with another huge home score, going 197.575 to stay in the top 12. What MSU doesn’t have yet is an away 197, which every other team in the top 16 has, so that should be the goal in Kentucky on Friday. Right now, Michigan State and Oregon State are both tied and both have exactly the same peak NQS after this week should they both score season highs, so both look about as capable as the other of breaking the tie and moving into sole possession of 12th.

14. Denver

Denver has somehow managed to withstand the fact that every single gymnast on the entire team has suffered a season-ending injury (Glynn the latest to join the list) and still got a 197 on Sunday. The goal score for Sunday’s home quad will be 196.800 as that will ensure that Denver stays in the top 16 next Monday regardless of what home 198s anyone else might do.

15. Arizona State

Arizona State has a higher peak NQS than Denver does this coming weekend so will semi-relish its chances to gain a spot. While it would take a 197.550 to guarantee, any kind of 197 probably gives ASU a good look. But the major consideration this week will be fending off UCLA and clinching an evening spot at the Pac-12 Championship, which would take a 196.750 for Arizona State to seal.

16. Ohio State

Ohio State managed a critical huge road score over the weekend, which moved the team into the top 16, the essential cutoff for being seeded at regionals. The next goal will be a 197.125 in Friday’s home finale, which would serve to retain this spot in the top 16 for another week. That tri-meet with Cal and Pitt will be one to watch because all three are in position limbo somewhere with very clear score goals.  

17. UCLA

UCLA’s ranking did not change this week despite a 198 because…road scores. That also means that UCLA doesn’t have too much control at this weekend’s home finale with a peak NQS of 196.865 even if they score another 198—lower than the peaks of all the teams currently ranked in the top 16. UCLA’s quest for a seeded position (which all the top teams also want, no one wants UCLA lurking unseeded in their regional semifinal) will be based almost entirely on getting a big road score at Pac-12s, likely from the afternoon session unless Arizona State puts up a bad one this week.    

18. Arkansas

Arkansas finally figured out bars at Sunday’s meet, but because the other scores didn’t exactly cooperate, the total remained stuck in the 196s. After this week, Arkansas will have a peak NQS of 196.865, which is exactly the same peak number as UCLA (this UCLA South thing is really getting out of hand) as both teams will try to scramble over each other to see if there’s a spot in the top 16 for one of them. Or both. 

19. BYU

BYU dropped from 14th to 19th this week because of a (gasp) 196.450. With a peak NQS of 196.720, BYU cannot get back into the top 16 this week but will still be looking for a big home number that could set up a last-minute push at the conference championships. But it’s starting to look like a tough path. 

20. Iowa

Iowa got back to the 196.8s this week, which is not a huge number given the national situation but is just what Iowa needed to remove the threat of getting pushed down to the play-in meets, which are allegedly for the teams ranked 29-36 unless we have any last-year shenanigans. This should be enough buffer now.

21. Boise State

22. Utah State

23. Stanford

Like Alabama, Stanford is idle this weekend, so we know that Stanford will have a maximum final NQS of 196.610.

24. Georgia

Georgia didn’t exactly put up huge totals at its 2 meets over the weekend but has now *probably* done enough to ensure escaping the play-in meets with this NQS.

I‘d say everyone below Georgia should still be at least vaguely concerned about getting pushed down to the Wednesday Sadness.

25. Illinois

26. NC State

27. Iowa State

28. Maryland

29. Towson

29. San Jose State

31. Washington

Washington added a critical road meet last weekend and paired it with a big home score to move into a much safer position. Not SAFE, but safer. Pac-12s in two weeks will present an additional chance to move up with a hit and the removal of that road score, so Washington has among the better chances to move out of the 29-36 zone.

32. Southern Utah

I guess it was the wrong week to have a bad one as Southern Utah dropped 11 spots in the rankings. Like Washington, SUU still has a good setup to make a ranking push at the conference championship, which should concern whoever ends up in 27-28 after this weekend if it’s not Washington and Southern Utah because they will be vulnerable. Southern Utah is not safe for the top 36 right now, but is definitely among the likelier teams to make it.

33. West Virginia

West Virginia is now over the 196 in NQS but definitely among the teams still in trouble for making the top 36 and advancing to the elimination meets. Not a done deal. WVU’s goal score this week will be 196.300, which would at least make sure that they are in the top 36 heading into the conference championship. 

34. North Carolina

North Carolina moved from 38th into the good spots this week with an exceptionally important road 196.475, and now the team heads to Georgia for the Durante’s Revenge Rumble knowing that there’s still a low road score in tow that can be dropped off there. It will take a 196.175 to clinch a spot in the top 36 for next week, but North Carolina will have slightly higher aims than that and would start to look pretty safe with another mid-196.

35. Arizona

Arizona’s asset is a two-meet weekend this week, providing one more opportunity than everyone else has to get to a safe regionals position. That means a single meet this week doesn’t have to be a season high (I mean it would help) to stay in the top 36 because a home 196.4 followed by a road 196.0 would accomplish the same thing. Saturday’s road meet at BYU and the opportunity to get rid of that 195.500 will be the key.

36. Western Michigan

Western Michigan currently occupies the final spot but because Central Michigan is lurking there in 40th place with a higher peak NQS than WMU has, Western Michigan is not currently in control of its own regionals fate and will have the basic approach of “season high and hope at least one team effs up.”

This is the case for every team ranked 36-39 right now—WMU, Pitt, Nebraska, and Penn State. They’re definitely still alive, but it’s as much about rooting for West Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Central Michigan not to get those 196s they need as it is about good scores for themselves.

37. Pittsburgh

38. Nebraska

39. Penn State

40. Central Michigan

Central Michigan is the one frightening all the other teams because of that 194.650 that still can be dropped at either of the two remaining meets. Central Michigan has the ability to get into the top 36 in one fell swoop and will be looking for 196.400 this week to do it. CMU’s last two home scores were 196.475 and 196.650.

41. Kent State

42. UC Davis

For teams Davis and below, regionals qualification is moving into the territory of….very challenging. It’s not mathematically impossible because there are still multiple meets left, but they’d have to break the bank at both.